基于能力谱的地震建筑破坏造成人员伤亡评估
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摘要
为准确计算地震导致的人员伤亡数量,提高灾后应急保障及救援效率,根据能力谱方法计算建筑物的损坏程度,在此基础上计算相应人员伤亡数量。采用SELENA软件中能力谱方法的计算公式,利用Matlab软件编程得到建筑物破坏及人员伤亡计算程序,计算8度地震条件下建筑物不同破坏状态的概率。根据HAZUS软件中建筑物破坏和人员伤亡关系,计算地震发生在02∶00,14∶00和17∶00时不同伤亡等级的伤亡人数。计算结果表明,多数伤者为轻伤,只需基本药物及简单治疗;地震导致的钢筋混凝土建筑破坏是造成人员伤亡的主要原因;能力谱方法可为震后物质配置及震前防灾规划提供决策支持。
This article attempts to establish a capacity-spectrum-based assessment method so as to accurately estimate the casualties caused by earthquake and to improve the disaster protection and emergency capabilities.Firstly,capacity spectrum was used to calculate the probabilities of building damage and its corresponding casualties.Then according to the capacity spectrum of SELENA software,the program for computing building damage and casualty was made using Matlab.Capacity spectrum was used to obtain the probability of building damage states under 8 degree earthquake.Different levels of casualties were estimated according to the relationships between building damage states and casualties provided by HAZUS software when the earthquake occurred at 02∶00,14∶00 and 17∶00,respectively.The assessment results show that most of the injured are slight with only a need for basic medicines or simple treatment;the life-threatening or mortally injured is in the minority.Reinforced concrete buildings cause the largest number of casualties.Capacity spectrum can be used to provide decision for disaster planning and emergency materials allocation.
This article attempts to establish a capacity-spectrum-based assessment method so as to accurately estimate the casualties caused by earthquake and to improve the disaster protection and emergency capabilities.Firstly,capacity spectrum was used to calculate the probabilities of building damage and its corresponding casualties.Then according to the capacity spectrum of SELENA software,the program for computing building damage and casualty was made using Matlab.Capacity spectrum was used to obtain the probability of building damage states under 8 degree earthquake.Different levels of casualties were estimated according to the relationships between building damage states and casualties provided by HAZUS software when the earthquake occurred at 02∶00,14∶00 and 17∶00,respectively.The assessment results show that most of the injured are slight with only a need for basic medicines or simple treatment;the life-threatening or mortally injured is in the minority.Reinforced concrete buildings cause the largest number of casualties.Capacity spectrum can be used to provide decision for disaster planning and emergency materials allocation.
引文
[1]Crowley H,Pinho R,Bommer J.A probabilistic displacement-based vulnerability assessment procedure for earthquakeloss estimation[J].Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering,2004,2(2):173–219.
[2]Glaister S,Pinho R.Development of a simplified deformation-based method for seismic vulnerability assessment[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering,2003,7(S1):107-140.
[3]Ajmar A,Boccardo P,Tonolo F G.Earthquake damage assessment based on remote sensing data:the Haiti case study[J].Remote Sensing,2011,43(2):123-128.
[4]Dolcea M,Kappos A,Masia A,et al.Vulnerability assessment and earthquake damage scenarios of the building stock ofPotenza(Southern Italy)using Italian and Greek methodologies[J].Engineering Structures,2006,28(3):357-371.
[5]Badal J,Prada M V,Gonzalez L.Preliminary quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties and damages[J].NaturalHazards,2005,34(3):353-374.
[6]Douglas J.Physical vulnerability modeling in natural hazard risk assessment[J].Natural Hazards and Earth SystemSciences,2007,7(4):283-288.
[7]Spence R,Bommer J,Deler D.Comparing loss estimation with observed damage:A study of the1999Kocaeli earthquakein Turkey[J].Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering,2003,1(1):83-113.
[8]Campbell K W.Empirical near-source attenuation relationships for horizontal and vertical components of peak groundacceleration,peak ground velocity,and pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra[J].Seismological ResearchLetters,1997,68(1):154-179.
[9]杨杰,刘茂,徐宁.基于能力谱的建筑物震害评估及城市抗震规划[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(11):18-24.YANG Jie,LIU Mao,XU Ning.Application of capacity spectrum in building damage state assessment and urban earth-quake disaster mitigation planning[J].China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(11):18-24.
[10]Yeh C S,Loh C H,Tsai K C.Overview of Taiwan earthquake loss estimation system[J].Natural Hazards,2006,37(2):23-37.
[11]Universitat d'Alacant Universtity.SELENA v4.1-User and Technical Manual v4.1[R].Spain:ICG,2009.
[12]Federal Emergency Management Agency.Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology Earthquake Model HAZUS-MH MR4Technical Manual[R].Washington,DC:FEMA,2009.
[13]GB50011—2001.建筑物抗震设计规范[S].GB50011—2001.Code for Seismic Design of Buildings[S].
[2]Glaister S,Pinho R.Development of a simplified deformation-based method for seismic vulnerability assessment[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering,2003,7(S1):107-140.
[3]Ajmar A,Boccardo P,Tonolo F G.Earthquake damage assessment based on remote sensing data:the Haiti case study[J].Remote Sensing,2011,43(2):123-128.
[4]Dolcea M,Kappos A,Masia A,et al.Vulnerability assessment and earthquake damage scenarios of the building stock ofPotenza(Southern Italy)using Italian and Greek methodologies[J].Engineering Structures,2006,28(3):357-371.
[5]Badal J,Prada M V,Gonzalez L.Preliminary quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties and damages[J].NaturalHazards,2005,34(3):353-374.
[6]Douglas J.Physical vulnerability modeling in natural hazard risk assessment[J].Natural Hazards and Earth SystemSciences,2007,7(4):283-288.
[7]Spence R,Bommer J,Deler D.Comparing loss estimation with observed damage:A study of the1999Kocaeli earthquakein Turkey[J].Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering,2003,1(1):83-113.
[8]Campbell K W.Empirical near-source attenuation relationships for horizontal and vertical components of peak groundacceleration,peak ground velocity,and pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra[J].Seismological ResearchLetters,1997,68(1):154-179.
[9]杨杰,刘茂,徐宁.基于能力谱的建筑物震害评估及城市抗震规划[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(11):18-24.YANG Jie,LIU Mao,XU Ning.Application of capacity spectrum in building damage state assessment and urban earth-quake disaster mitigation planning[J].China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(11):18-24.
[10]Yeh C S,Loh C H,Tsai K C.Overview of Taiwan earthquake loss estimation system[J].Natural Hazards,2006,37(2):23-37.
[11]Universitat d'Alacant Universtity.SELENA v4.1-User and Technical Manual v4.1[R].Spain:ICG,2009.
[12]Federal Emergency Management Agency.Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology Earthquake Model HAZUS-MH MR4Technical Manual[R].Washington,DC:FEMA,2009.
[13]GB50011—2001.建筑物抗震设计规范[S].GB50011—2001.Code for Seismic Design of Buildings[S].
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