长春市水资源承载力变动及可持续利用对策
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摘要
以水资源的供需关系作为衡量水资源承载力的依据,利用统计资料分析了长春市水资源现状。以水资源利用量为因变量,采用主成分分析,在GDP、工业总产值、总人口数、工业需水量和农业需水量等9个与水资源利用量密切相关的指标中筛选出GDP和农业人口两个因子作为自变量,利用多元线性回归分析模型,通过对GDP和农业人口的增长预测了未来10年长春市水资源承载能力。结果表明,未来10年长春市水资源供需矛盾突出,水资源承载能力无法维持经济和社会的正常发展。根据长春市水资源的形势,从开源、节流和管理等方面提出了水资源的可持续利用对策。
In this paper,the actuality of water resources in Changchun City is analyzed by regarding the supply-demand relationship of water resources as the basis of carrying capacity of water resources and using the available statistical data.By using principal component analysis,the carrying capacity of water resources in Changchun City in next 10 years is predicted based on the GDP increase and the rural population growth by taking the demand of water resources as the dependent variable and selecting the GDP and rural population as the independent variables,which are selected from 9 indexes closely related to the demand of water resources,such as the GDP,gross industrial output value,total population, industrial water consumption and agricultural irrigation water consumption.The results show that the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be very serious in next 10 years,and the carrying capacity of water resources will be not able to maintain the sustainable social and economic development.According to the situation of water recourses in Changchun City,some measure are put forward for achieving the sustainable utilization of water resources based on the consideration of rationally redistributing water resources,increasing the utilization ratio of water resources,exploiting new water sources,saving water consumption,strengthening water resources management,etc.
In this paper,the actuality of water resources in Changchun City is analyzed by regarding the supply-demand relationship of water resources as the basis of carrying capacity of water resources and using the available statistical data.By using principal component analysis,the carrying capacity of water resources in Changchun City in next 10 years is predicted based on the GDP increase and the rural population growth by taking the demand of water resources as the dependent variable and selecting the GDP and rural population as the independent variables,which are selected from 9 indexes closely related to the demand of water resources,such as the GDP,gross industrial output value,total population, industrial water consumption and agricultural irrigation water consumption.The results show that the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be very serious in next 10 years,and the carrying capacity of water resources will be not able to maintain the sustainable social and economic development.According to the situation of water recourses in Changchun City,some measure are put forward for achieving the sustainable utilization of water resources based on the consideration of rationally redistributing water resources,increasing the utilization ratio of water resources,exploiting new water sources,saving water consumption,strengthening water resources management,etc.
引文
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(8)林学钰,陈梦熊,王兆馨,等.松嫩盆地地下水资源与可持续发展研究(M).北京:地震出版社,2000.(Lin Xueyu,ChenMengxiong,Wang Zhaoxin,et al.Research on Underground Wa-ter Resource and It’s Sustainable Development in Songnen Basin(M).Beijing:Earthquake Press,2000.)
(9)刘心爱.我国中水的开发与利用(J).中国水利,2004,15(1):20-22.(Lin Xin’ai.Development and utilization of recycled waterin china(J).China Water Resources,2004,15(1):20-22.)
(10)包晨雷.中水回用的现状和发展趋势(J).上海建设科技,2004,23(2):14-15.(Bao Chenlei.Current state and developmenttrend of Reclaimed water recycling(J).Shanghai ConstructionScience&Technology,2004,23(2):14-15.)
(2)Daily G C.English P R.Socioeconomic equity,sustainability andearth capacity(J).Ecological Application,1996,6(4):991-1 001.
(3)惠泱河,蒋晓辉,黄强,等.水资源承载力评价指标体系研究(J).水土保持通报,2001,20(6):30-34.(Xi Yanghe,Jiang Xi-aohui,Huang Qiang,et a1.Research on evaluation index system ofwater resources bearing capacity(J).Bulletin of Soil and WaterConservation,2001,20(6):30-34.)
(4)朱一中,夏军,谈戈.关于水资源承载力理论与方法的研究(J).地理科学进展,2002,21(2):180-188.(Zhu Yizhong,Xia Jun,Tan Ge.A primary study on theories and process of water re-sources carrying capacity(J).Progress in Geography,2002(3):180-187.)
(5)马金珠,李相虎,贾新颜.干旱区水资源承载力多目标层次评价——以民勤县为例(J).干旱区研究,2003,10(2):11-16.(Ma Jinzhu,Li Xianghu,Jia Xinyan.Evaluation of the carryingcapacity of water resources in arid areas by using multi-objectivehierarchical analysis—A case study in minqin county,Gansuprovince(J.)Arid Zone Research,2003,10(2):11-16.)
(6)于君宝,刘景双,王金达.长春市城市用水需求与可利用水资源潜力分析(J).水土保持学报,2003,17(5):81-84.(Yu Jun-bao,Liu Jingshuang,Wang Jinda.Analysis of municipal water de-mand and utilizable water resource potential in changchun city(J).Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2003,17(5):81-84.)
(7)盖美,盖帅,张亚立.城市可持续发展水平的指标体系及评价(J).辽宁师范大学学报(自然科学版),2004,27(1):91-94.(Ca Mei,Gai Shuai,Zhang Yali.Indexes and assessment of thecity sustaining development level(J).Journal of Liaoning NormalUniversity(Natural Science Edition),2004,27(1):91-94.)
(8)林学钰,陈梦熊,王兆馨,等.松嫩盆地地下水资源与可持续发展研究(M).北京:地震出版社,2000.(Lin Xueyu,ChenMengxiong,Wang Zhaoxin,et al.Research on Underground Wa-ter Resource and It’s Sustainable Development in Songnen Basin(M).Beijing:Earthquake Press,2000.)
(9)刘心爱.我国中水的开发与利用(J).中国水利,2004,15(1):20-22.(Lin Xin’ai.Development and utilization of recycled waterin china(J).China Water Resources,2004,15(1):20-22.)
(10)包晨雷.中水回用的现状和发展趋势(J).上海建设科技,2004,23(2):14-15.(Bao Chenlei.Current state and developmenttrend of Reclaimed water recycling(J).Shanghai ConstructionScience&Technology,2004,23(2):14-15.)
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