钱塘江河口海塘风险分析和安全评估关键技术
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摘要
在总结以往风险分析的基础上,分析了钱塘江河口海塘的风险因子,结合钱塘江河口河床易冲易淤的特点,建立了海塘失效概率树模型,得出了海塘风险分析的基本框架.海塘失效概率树为串联概率树,而条件概率P(B/A)解求是串联概率树要解决的关键问题,为此提出了假定条件概率近似符合正态分布,然后做积分变换推求条件概率的思路;在进行钱塘江河口海塘风险分析和安全评估时,要注意引入塘前滩地高程作为分析海塘整体稳定安全性的随机变量;采用信息熵理论分析高水位变异点,以及放水减淤、船抛块石等降低海塘失效风险措施研究等关键技术问题.
Based on relevant previous studies,several risk factors affecting the Qiantang River seawall were brought forward.The corresponding fault tree model and the schematic ideals for systematic risk analysis on the reliability of the seawall were also provided for considering that the riverbed's characteristics changes greatly and rapidly.The seawall fault tree is the system in series,and the key to the fault tree is the solution to conditional probability P(B/A).So the idea of solution to conditional probability by integral transform was presented on condition that its probability density function obeyed normal distribution.The flat level in front of the seawall was regarded as a random variable.Analysis of the high water level variation by the theory of information entropy,and practical technique such as using runoff for erosion,dumped riprap to reinforce the seawall were emphasized as the key technology of risk analysis and safety evaluation of seawall.
Based on relevant previous studies,several risk factors affecting the Qiantang River seawall were brought forward.The corresponding fault tree model and the schematic ideals for systematic risk analysis on the reliability of the seawall were also provided for considering that the riverbed's characteristics changes greatly and rapidly.The seawall fault tree is the system in series,and the key to the fault tree is the solution to conditional probability P(B/A).So the idea of solution to conditional probability by integral transform was presented on condition that its probability density function obeyed normal distribution.The flat level in front of the seawall was regarded as a random variable.Analysis of the high water level variation by the theory of information entropy,and practical technique such as using runoff for erosion,dumped riprap to reinforce the seawall were emphasized as the key technology of risk analysis and safety evaluation of seawall.
引文
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[32]王卫标,韩曾萃,金伟良.钱塘江某海塘整体稳定可靠度分析[J].浙江大学学报:工学版,2002,36(4):366370.WANG Wei-biao,HAN Zeng-cui,JIN Wei-liang.Re-liability analysis of overall stability of Qiangtang Riverseawall[J].Journal of Zhejiang University:EngineeringScience,2002,36(4):366 370.
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[2]郭章林,胡云昌,余建星.输油管道系统泵站可靠性分析[J].天津大学学报,2000,33(5):619 623.GUO Zhang-lin,HU Yun-chang,YU Jian-xing.Relia-bility analysis for pumps-station of crude oil transmittingpipelines[J].Journal of Tianjin University,2000,33(5):619 623.
[3]周国红.金融系统风险研究与控制的混沌理论探索[J].浙江大学学报:人文社会科学版,2001,31(3):84 88.ZHOU Guo-hong.Research of chaos theory on the riskcontrol in finance system[J].Journal of Zhejiang Uni-versity:Humanities and Social Sciences,2001,31(3):8488.
[4]朱良峰,殷坤龙,张梁,等.地质灾害风险分析与GIS技术应用研究[J].地理学与国土研究,2002,18(4):10 12.ZHU Liang-feng,YIN Kun-long,ZHANG Liang,etal.Risk analysis of GEO-hazard and application of theGIS technique[J].Geography and Territorial Research,2002,18(4):10 12.
[5]顾晓辉,王晓鸣,赵有守.新型弹药系统风险估计[J].南京理工大学学报,2002,26(3):259 262.GU Xiao-hui,WANG Xiao-ming,ZHAO You-shou.Risk estimation of new ammunition system[J].Journalof Nanjing University of Science and Technology,2002,26(3):259 262.
[6]YEN B C,ANG A H S.Risk analysis in design of hy-draulic projects[C]∥CHIU C L.Proc1st Inter Sympoon Stocha Hydrau.Pittsburg:University of Pittsburg,1971:694 709.
[7]杨玉荣,徐高洪.三峡洪水系统风险研究[J].长江水利,1996,13(2):43 46.YANG Yu-rong,XU Gao-hong.Study on the flood sys-tem risk of the three-gorge[J].Journal of Yangtze RiverHydraulics,1996,13(2):43 46.
[8]赵永军,冯平,曲兴辉.河道防洪堤坝水流风险的估算[J].河海大学学报,1998,26(3):71 75.ZHAO Yong-jun,FENG Ping,QU Xing-hui.Investi-gation on hydraulic risk of flood control dams[J].Jour-nal of Hohai University,1998,26(3):71 75.
[9]朱元甡.基于风险分析的防洪研究[J].河海大学学报,2001,29(4):1 8.ZHU Yuan-sheng.Flood defense based on risk analysis[J].Journal of Hohai University,2001,29(4):1 8.
[10]吴泽宁,王敬,赵南.水资源系统灰色风险计算模型[J].郑州大学学报:工学版,2002,23(3):22 24,40.WU Ze-ning,WANG Jing,ZHAO Nan.Grey risk cal-culation model for water resources system[J].Journalof Zhengzhou University:Engineering Science,2002,23(3):22 24,40.
[11]梅亚东,谈广鸣.大坝防洪安全评价的风险标准[J].水电能源科学,2002,20(4):8 10.MEI Ya-dong,TAN Guang-ming.Risk criteria for as-sessment dam hydrological safety[J].InternationalJournal Hydroelectric Energy,2002,20(4):8 10.
[12]王才君,郭生练,田向荣,等.三峡工程三期明渠提前截流水文风险分析[J].人民长江,2002,33(7):6,7.WANG Cai-jun,GUO Sheng-lian,TIAN Xiang-rong,et al.Hydrology risk analysis of three stage channelcut-off ahead of schedule of the three-gorge[J].Yang-ze River,2002,33(7):6,7.
[13]杜德进,张为民,张秀丽,等.风险评估在丰满水电站大坝的应用研究[J],大坝与安全,2002(6):6 10.DU De-jin,ZHANG Wei-min,ZHANG Xiu-li,et al.Risk assessment study on Fengman hydropower station[J].Dam and Safety,2002(6):6 10.
[14]李典庆,张圣坤.海洋结构物风险评估方法的研究进展[J].中国海洋平台,2003,18(3):6 12.LI Dian-qing,ZHANG Sheng-kun.The review on therisk assessment method for marine structures[J].O-cean Platform of China,2003,18(3):6 12.
[15]朱元甡,韩国宏,王汝慈,等.南水北调中线工程交叉建筑物水毁风险分析[J].水文,1995(3):1 8.ZHU Yuan-sheng,HAN Guo-hong,WANG Ru-ci,etal.The risk analysis of flood damaging to the cross-structures on the main canal of the south-to-north wa-ter transfer project[J].Journal of Hydrology,1995(3):1 8.
[16]冯平,闫大鹏,耿六成,等.南水北调中线总干渠防洪风险评估方法的研究[J].水利学报,2003(4):40 45.FENG Ping,YAN Da-peng,GENG Liu-cheng,et al.Study on flood risk assessment on the main channel inmiddle route of the water transfer project from south tonorth[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2003(4):40 45.
[17]董胜,王腾.防洪工程项目的风险评估[J].水利学报,2003(9):19-24.DONG Sheng,WANG Teng.Risk assessment of floodcontrol water project[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engi-neering,2003(9):19 24.
[18]ERIC Wood.An analysis of flood levee reliability[J].Water Resources Research,1977(3):665 670.
[19]TUNG Yeou-Koung.Risk-based design of flood defensesystems[M].New York:Science Press,2002:71 81.
[20]何广讷,杨斌.海堤地震稳定性的概率分析[J].海洋工程,1995,13(1):62 69.HE Guang-nai,YANG Bin.Probability analysis forthe seismic stability of seawall[J].The Ocean Engi-neering,1995,13(1):62 69.
[21]PILARCZYK K W.Dike and revetment-design,mainte-nance and safety assessment[M].Netherland:A.A.Balkema,1998:443 462.
[22]李国芳,黄振平,章志强,等.长江防洪堤南京段设计洪水位风险分析[J].河海大学学报,1999,27(2):22 27.LI Guo-fang,HUANG Zhen-ping,ZHANG Zhi-qiang,etal.Risk analysis of design flood stage of Nanjing section ofYangze River flood-protecting embankment[J].Journal ofHohai University,1999,27(2):22 27.
[23]王卓甫,章志强,杨高升.防洪堤结构风险计算模型探讨[J].水利学报,1998(7):64 67.WANG Zhou-fu,ZHANG Zhi-qiang,YANG Gao-sheng.Discuss on the model for calculating the risk ofstructure of control flood dyke[J].Journal of HydraulicEngineering,1998(7):64 67.
[24]陈进,黄薇.防洪工程系统风险分析方法探讨[J].长江科学院院报,2001,18(5):37 40.CHEN Jin,HUANG Wei.Inquiry into system risk an-alytic method of flood control engineering[J].Journalof Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2001,18(5):37 40.
[25]李青云,张建民.长江堤防工程风险分析和安全评价研究初论[J].中国软科学,2001(11):112 115.LIN Qing-yun,ZHANG Jian-min.On the risk analysisand safety assessment research of Yangze River mainlevee[J].Soft Science of China,2001(11):112 115.
[26]梁在朝,李泰来.江河堤防防洪能力的风险分析[J].长江科学院院报,2001,18(2):7 10.LIANG Zai-chao,LI Tai-lai.Risk analysis and compu-tation of flood control capacity for river levee[J].Jour-nal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2001,18(2):7 10.
[27]李义天,张为,孙昭华.河道泥沙淤积对洪灾风险评估的影响[J].安全与环境学报,2002,2(5):54 58.LI Yi-tian,ZHANG Wei,SUN Zhao-hua.An assess-ment of the influence of the waterway silt-up on theflood discharge[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2002,2(5):54 58.
[28]金菊良,刘永芳,丁晶,等.城市防洪工程经济风险分析的蒙特卡罗法[J].长江科学院院报,2003,20(1):4043.JIN Ju-liang,LIU Yong-fang,DING Jing,et al.Monte-carlo method for economical risk analysis in urban floodcontrol engineering[J].Journal of Yangtze River ScientificResearch Institute,2003,20(1):40 43.
[29]吴兴征,丁留谦,张金接.防洪堤的可靠性设计方法探讨[J].水利学报,2003(4):94 100.WU Xing-zheng,DING Liu-qian,ZHANG Jin-jie.Studyon reliability design method of flood defenses[J].Journalof Hydraulic Engineering,2003(4):94 100.
[30]陈新民,夏佳,罗国煜.黄河下游悬河决口灾害的风险分析与评价[J].水利学报,2000(10):66 70.CHEN Xin-min,XIA Jia,LUO Guo-yu.Risk analysisof dike breach in lower reaches of Yellow River[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2000(10):66 70.
[31]钱塘江志[M].北京:方志出版社,1998:63 85,116118,123 139,379 421.
[32]王卫标,韩曾萃,金伟良.钱塘江某海塘整体稳定可靠度分析[J].浙江大学学报:工学版,2002,36(4):366370.WANG Wei-biao,HAN Zeng-cui,JIN Wei-liang.Re-liability analysis of overall stability of Qiangtang Riverseawall[J].Journal of Zhejiang University:EngineeringScience,2002,36(4):366 370.
[33]王卫标,韩海骞,俞婷婷,等.船抛块石随机模型研究[J].泥沙研究,2003(2):65 68.WANG Wei-biao,HAN Hai-qian,YU Ting-ting,et al.Study on the stochastic model for rock riprap by boats[J].Journal of Sediment Research,2003(2):65 68.
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