中国行业供应链碳足迹的来源分解分析——基于投入产出的生命周期评价模型
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摘要
行业供应链碳排放的测度与评估对我国制定科学有效的碳减排政策至关重要。为此,本文建立了基于投入产出的生命周期评价模型,利用二项展开式法将我国行业供应链的碳足迹来源分解为六个层次,计算各层次的碳排放量并阐述其实际含义,进而对各层各行业的碳排放占比和行业的碳排放总量作出详细分析,找出碳排放量最大的层级。研究显示,绝大多数的碳足迹产生于电力、热力的生产和供应以及石油、炼焦产品和核燃料加工;行业之间供应链的生产和消费产生的间接碳排放量明显高于其直接碳排放量,且第六层间接碳排放量最大;生活消费的碳排放量位居行业第十,其碳排放量在前五层不明显,在第六层最大,这与城乡居民生活消费水平提高密切相关。对此,本文提出优化能源结构,把工业生产中产生的能量进行多次利用,研发节能建筑及汽车,大力发展低碳行业等政策建议。
It is crucial to measure and assess carbon emission of industry supply chain for making scientific and effective carbon emission reduction policy in China. this paper establishes an IO-LCA model based on the life cycle assessment method for carbon emissions from supply chains in various industries in China, and decomposes the carbon footprint of the industry supply chain into six levels and calculates the carbon emissions at each level. Then a detailed analysis was made of the carbon emissions in the various industries, the top industry in total carbon emissions, and the share of total emissions in all levels of emissions. Research shows that the vast majority of carbon footprints are generated by the production and supply of electricity and heat, and petroleum, coke products, and nuclear fuel processing. The indirect carbon emissions generated by production and consumption in the supply chain of the industry are significantly higher than the direct carbon emissions produced by the industry, and the sixth floor has the largest indirect carbon emissions. The carbon emission of living consumption ranks the tenth in the industry. Its carbon emission is not obvious in the first five floors, and is the largest in the sixth floor. It is closely related to the improvement of living consumption of urban and rural residents. In this regard, this paper proposes to optimize the energy structure,use the energy generated in industrial production for multiple uses, research and develop energy-efficient buildings and automobiles, and vigorously develop low-carbon industries and other policy recommendations.
It is crucial to measure and assess carbon emission of industry supply chain for making scientific and effective carbon emission reduction policy in China. this paper establishes an IO-LCA model based on the life cycle assessment method for carbon emissions from supply chains in various industries in China, and decomposes the carbon footprint of the industry supply chain into six levels and calculates the carbon emissions at each level. Then a detailed analysis was made of the carbon emissions in the various industries, the top industry in total carbon emissions, and the share of total emissions in all levels of emissions. Research shows that the vast majority of carbon footprints are generated by the production and supply of electricity and heat, and petroleum, coke products, and nuclear fuel processing. The indirect carbon emissions generated by production and consumption in the supply chain of the industry are significantly higher than the direct carbon emissions produced by the industry, and the sixth floor has the largest indirect carbon emissions. The carbon emission of living consumption ranks the tenth in the industry. Its carbon emission is not obvious in the first five floors, and is the largest in the sixth floor. It is closely related to the improvement of living consumption of urban and rural residents. In this regard, this paper proposes to optimize the energy structure,use the energy generated in industrial production for multiple uses, research and develop energy-efficient buildings and automobiles, and vigorously develop low-carbon industries and other policy recommendations.
引文
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[20]Mongelli,I.,G.Tassielli,and B.Notarnicola.Global Warming Agreements,Internationale Trade and Energy/Carbon Embodiments:An Input-output Approach to the Italian Case[J].Energy Policy,2006,35(1):88-100.
[21]Onat,N.C.,M.Kucukvar,and O.Tatari.Integrating Triple Bottom Line Input-output Analysis into Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment Framework:The Case for US Buildings[J].The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment,2014,19(8):1488-1505.
[22]Sanchez-Choliz,J.and R.Duarte.CO2Emissions Embodied in International Trade:Evidence for Spain[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(18):1999-2005.
[23]Wang,J.M.,R.G.Wang,Y.C.Zhu,and J.Y.Li.Life Cycle Assessment and Environmental Cost Accounting of Coal-fired Power Generation in China[J].Energy Policy,2018,115:374-384.
[24]Wang,C.,J.Y.Zhan,Z.H.Li,F.Zhang,and Y.Zhang.Structural Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Residential Consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2019,208:1357-1364.
[25]Weber,C.L.and H.S.Matthews.Quantifying the Global and Distributional Aspects of American Household Carbon Footprint[J].Ecological Economics,2008,66(23):379-91.
[26]Xing,Z.C.,J.G.Wang,and J.Zhang.Expansion of Environmental Impact Assessment for Eco-efficiency Evaluation of China’s Economic Sectors:An Economic Input-output Based Frontier Approach[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,635:284-293.
[27]Yabe,N.An Analysis of CO2Emissions of Japanese Industries During the Period Between 1985 and 1995[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(5):595-610.
[28]Zhang,B.,X.Qu,J.Meng,and X.D.Sun.Identifying Primary Energy Requirements in Structural Path Analysis:A Case Study of China 2012[J].Applied Energy,2017,191:425-435.
[2]关军.建筑业环境影响测算与评价方法研究[D].北京:清华大学,2014.
[3]国家统计局能源统计司.中国能源统计年鉴2016[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[4]国家统计局国民经济核算司.2012年中国投入产出表[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015.
[5]李新运,吴学锰,马俏俏.我国行业碳排放量测算及影响因素的结构分解分析[J].统计研究,2014,31(1):56-62.
[6]秦昌才,刘树林.基于投入产出分析的中国产业完全碳排放研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2013,28(9):32-38.
[7]唐建荣,李烨啸.基于EIO-LCA的隐性碳排放估算及地区差异化研究[J].工业技术经济,2013,4:126-135.
[8]万宇,李杨,侯晓梅.基于EIO-LCA方法的2007年与2012年中国碳排放结构比较研究[J].生态经济,2017,33(09):21-25.
[9]吴常艳,黄贤金,揣小伟,徐国良,於冉,李丽.基于EIO-LCA的江苏省产业结构调整与碳减排潜力分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(4):43-51.
[10]杨顺顺.中国工业部门碳排放转移评价及预测研究[J].中国工业经济,2015,(6):55-67.
[11]赵巧芝,闫庆友.基于投入产出的中国行业碳排放及减排效果模拟[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(9):1528-1541.
[12]Blackhurst,B.M.,C.Hendrickson,and J.S.I.Vidal.Direct and Indirect Water Withdrawals for US Industrial Sectors[J].Environmental Science Technology,2010,44(6):2126-2130.
[13]Chen,G.Q.and B.Zhang.Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China 2007:Inventory and Input-Output Analysis[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(10):6180-93.
[14]Duan,C.C.,B.Chen,K.S.Feng,Z.Liu,T.Hayat,A.Alsaedi,and B.Ahmad.Interregional Carbon Flows of China[J].Applied Energy,2018,227:342-352.
[15]Kucukvar,M.,G.Egilmez,N.C.Onat,and H.Samadi.A Global,Scope-based Carbon Footprint Modeling for Effective Carbon Reduction Policies:Lessons from the Turkish Manufacturing[J].Sustainable Production and Consumption,2015,1:47-66.
[16]Lenzen,M.Primary Energy and Greenhouse Gases Embodied in Australian Final Consumption:An Inputoutput Analysis[J].Energy Policy,1998,26(6):495-506.
[17]Leontief,W.Environmental Repercussions and the Economic Structure:An Input-output Approach[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1970,52(3):262-271.
[18]Matthews,H.S.,C.T.Hendrickson,and C.L.Weber.The Importance of Carbon Footprint Estimation Boundaries[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2008,42:5839-5842.
[19]Miller,R.E.and P.D.Blair.Input-Output Analysis:Foundations and Extensions[M].London:Cambridge University Press,2009.
[20]Mongelli,I.,G.Tassielli,and B.Notarnicola.Global Warming Agreements,Internationale Trade and Energy/Carbon Embodiments:An Input-output Approach to the Italian Case[J].Energy Policy,2006,35(1):88-100.
[21]Onat,N.C.,M.Kucukvar,and O.Tatari.Integrating Triple Bottom Line Input-output Analysis into Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment Framework:The Case for US Buildings[J].The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment,2014,19(8):1488-1505.
[22]Sanchez-Choliz,J.and R.Duarte.CO2Emissions Embodied in International Trade:Evidence for Spain[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(18):1999-2005.
[23]Wang,J.M.,R.G.Wang,Y.C.Zhu,and J.Y.Li.Life Cycle Assessment and Environmental Cost Accounting of Coal-fired Power Generation in China[J].Energy Policy,2018,115:374-384.
[24]Wang,C.,J.Y.Zhan,Z.H.Li,F.Zhang,and Y.Zhang.Structural Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Residential Consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2019,208:1357-1364.
[25]Weber,C.L.and H.S.Matthews.Quantifying the Global and Distributional Aspects of American Household Carbon Footprint[J].Ecological Economics,2008,66(23):379-91.
[26]Xing,Z.C.,J.G.Wang,and J.Zhang.Expansion of Environmental Impact Assessment for Eco-efficiency Evaluation of China’s Economic Sectors:An Economic Input-output Based Frontier Approach[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,635:284-293.
[27]Yabe,N.An Analysis of CO2Emissions of Japanese Industries During the Period Between 1985 and 1995[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(5):595-610.
[28]Zhang,B.,X.Qu,J.Meng,and X.D.Sun.Identifying Primary Energy Requirements in Structural Path Analysis:A Case Study of China 2012[J].Applied Energy,2017,191:425-435.
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