作物多样性变化及其对农业产出的影响——基于期望出产和非期望产出的分析
|
摘要
运用中国30个省份1990～2016年的面板数据,从作物多样性视角,采用CDI和d等作物多样性指数,考察了农业种植结构对农业产值和农业面源污染的影响。研究结果表明:作物多样性与农业产值之间存在显著的"倒U型"曲线关系。当前中国非优势作物(比较优势较弱)多样性偏高,对农业产值产生抑制作用,非优势作物多样性每增加1个单位,农业产值将减少1.5%;对农业面源污染产生正向作用,非优势作物多样性每增加1个单位,农业面源污染将增加1.3%。而区域优势作物多样性的增加对农业面源污染有较大的抑制效应,优势作物多样性每增加1个单位,农业面源污染将减少1.5%;作物多样性对种植业产值和农业面源污染综合指数的提高有负面影响;在农业劳动力大量转移背景下,减少作物多样性种植有利于农业产值的提高;当自然灾害较严重时,作物多样性的增加有利于农业产值的增长。因此各区域要立足于本省的资源禀赋条件,减少比较优势较弱的农作物品种和种植面积,增加优势农产品,特色农产品种植,培育农业品牌,以提高农业收入和增强生态环境保护。同时,农业基础设施的完善以及农民防灾减灾意识的提高有利于增强抵御自然灾害的能力,促进绿色的现代化农业的发展。
This paper investigated the effects of crop planting structure on agricultural output value and non-point source pollution by analysising the relation of crop diversity, agricultural output value, and released pollutants. The panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1990 to 2016 were included. The results showed that crop diversity had an inverted u-shape effect on agricultural output value and there were greatly diversified crop categories for non-dominant crops(relatively weak comparative advantage) currently, which had an inhibitory effect on agricultural output value and had a positive effect on agricultural non-point source pollution. Holding all other things constant, a 1 increase of the crop diversity will lead to a decrease in agricultural output value of 1.5% and an increase in agricultural non-point source pollution of 1.3%, respectively. The increase of regional dominant crop diversity had a greater inhibitory effect on agricultural non-point source pollution, when the crop diversity rises 1, agricultural non-point source pollution decreases 1.5 percent. Besides, the crop diversity had a negative effect on comprehensive indicators of output value and pollution. With the outflowing of agricultural labor, reducing crop diversity benefits agricultural output value; the increase of crop diversity is beneficial to the growth of agricultural output value when natural ecosystems are fragile. In order to improve agricultural income and enhance ecological environment, the crop varieties and planting areas should be reduced for those weaker comparative crops, meanwhile developing agricultural products, local agricultural products, and building agricultural brands will substantially help. For other factors we discussed, agricultural infrastructure, farmers' awareness of disaster prevention are significantly affecting the agricultural outputs and need be addressed properly.
This paper investigated the effects of crop planting structure on agricultural output value and non-point source pollution by analysising the relation of crop diversity, agricultural output value, and released pollutants. The panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1990 to 2016 were included. The results showed that crop diversity had an inverted u-shape effect on agricultural output value and there were greatly diversified crop categories for non-dominant crops(relatively weak comparative advantage) currently, which had an inhibitory effect on agricultural output value and had a positive effect on agricultural non-point source pollution. Holding all other things constant, a 1 increase of the crop diversity will lead to a decrease in agricultural output value of 1.5% and an increase in agricultural non-point source pollution of 1.3%, respectively. The increase of regional dominant crop diversity had a greater inhibitory effect on agricultural non-point source pollution, when the crop diversity rises 1, agricultural non-point source pollution decreases 1.5 percent. Besides, the crop diversity had a negative effect on comprehensive indicators of output value and pollution. With the outflowing of agricultural labor, reducing crop diversity benefits agricultural output value; the increase of crop diversity is beneficial to the growth of agricultural output value when natural ecosystems are fragile. In order to improve agricultural income and enhance ecological environment, the crop varieties and planting areas should be reduced for those weaker comparative crops, meanwhile developing agricultural products, local agricultural products, and building agricultural brands will substantially help. For other factors we discussed, agricultural infrastructure, farmers' awareness of disaster prevention are significantly affecting the agricultural outputs and need be addressed properly.
引文
[1] DENG X Z,JOHN G C,WANG P.Relationship between landscape diversity and crop production:A case study in the Hebei Province of China based on multi-source data integration[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017(142):985-992.
[2] AMELIE C.M.G,TOR N.T,ALAN P.K,et al.Increasing crop diversity mitigates weather variations and improves yield stability[J].Plos One,2015(6):1-20.
[3] HERMANN P P D,ALEKSANDRA B,CECILE D D,et al.Crop production and crop diversity in France:A spatial analysis[J].Ecological Economics,2017(134):29-39.
[4] MARTIN F.Agricultural diversity,structural change and long-run development:Evidence from the U.S[R].Working Paper,2017.
[5] 袁正,闵庆文,成升魁,等.哈尼梯田农田生物多样性及其在农户生计支持中的作用[C]//中国科学技术协会、云南省人民政府.第十六届中国科协年会——分4民族文化保护与生态文明建设学术研讨会论文集[C].中国科学技术协会、云南省人民政府:中国科学技术协会学会学术部,2014:6.YUAN Z,MIN Q W,CHENG S K,et al.The biodiversity in the farmland and its effects on the smallholders’ livelihoods[C]//China Association for science and technology and The People’s Government of Yunnan Province.The Sixteenth Annual Meeting of China Association for science and technology- The fourth points venue Proceedings of the Symposium on the protection of national culture and the construction of ecological civilization.China Association for science and technology and The People’s Government of Yunnan Province:Academic department of the association of science and technology of China,2014:6.
[6] 董文霞,肖春,李成云.作物多样性种植对农田害虫及天敌的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(4):435-442.DONG W X,XIAO C,LI C Y.Effect of diversified cropping on insect pests and natural enemies in agroecosystems[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2016,24(4):435-442.
[7] BENTLEY,JEFFERY.Economic and ecological ap-proaches to land fragmentation:in defence of a much-aligned phenomenon[J].Annual Review of Anthropology,1987,16:31-67.
[8] HUNG P V,MACAULAY T G,et al.The economics of land fragmentation in North of Vietnam[J].Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2007(51):195-211.
[9] 许庆,田士超,徐志刚,等.农地制度、土地细碎化与农民收入不平等[J].经济研究,2008(2):83-92,105.XU Q,TIAN S C,XU Z G,et al.Rural land system,land fragmentation and farmer’s income inequality[J].Economic Research Journal,2008(2):83-92,105.
[10] BLAREL B,PETER H,FRANK P,et al.The economics of farm fragmentation:Evidence from Ghana and Rwanda[J].World Bank Economic Review,1992,6(2):233-254.
[11] CARTER M R,YAO Y.Local versus global sep-arability in agricultural household models:The factor price equalization effect of land transfer rights[J].American Journal Agricultural Economics,2002(84):702-715.
[12] ROOT R B.Organization of a plant-arthropod association in simple and diverse habitats:The fauna of collards (Brassica olercea)[J].Ecological Monographs,1973,43(1):95-124.
[13] 杨志武,钟甫宁.农户种植业决策中的外部性研究[J].农业技术经济,2010(1):27-33.YANG Z W,ZHONG F N.Study on the externality of farmers' planting decision[J].Journal of Agrotechnical,2010(1):27-33.
[14] HAUSMANN R,HIDALGO C A.Country diversification,product ubiquity,and economic divergence,HKS faculty research[R].Harvard Kennedy School Working Paper Series No.RWP10-045,2010.
[15] 叶初升,邹欣.农产品出口多样性、普遍性与农业增长[J].中国农村经济,2016(3):82-96.YE C S,ZOU X.The diversity and ubiquity of export of agricultural products and growth of Agriculture[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2016(3):82-96.
[16] 赖斯芸,杜鹏飞,陈吉宁.基于单元分析的非点源污染调查评估方法[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004(9):1184-1187.LAI S Y,DU PF,CHEN J N.Evaluation of non-point source pollution based on unit analysis[J].Tsinghua University (Sci & Tech),2004(9):1184-1187.
[17] 王玉梅,任丽军,霍太英,等.山东省化肥流失状况及其对水环境污染的影响[J].鲁东大学学报(自然科学版),2009,25(3):263-266,270.WANG Y M,REN L J,HUO T Y,et al.Chemical fertilizer outflow and its influence on water environmental pollution in Shandong Province[J].Ludong University Joumal(Natural Science Edition) ,2009,25(3):263-266,270.
[18] 梁流涛.考虑“非意欲”产出的农业土地生产效率评价及其时空特征分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(12):2249-2255.LIANG L T.Agricultural land efficiency and temporal-spatial characteristics:Desired output and undesired pollution emissions[J].Resources Science,2012,34(12):2249-2255.
[19] 盖兆雪,孙萍,张景奇.环境约束下的粮食主产区耕地利用效率时空演变特征[J].经济地理,2017,37(12):163-171.GAI Z X,SUN P,ZHANG J Q.A study on with the cultivated land utilization efficiency and its difference with consideration of environmental constraints in major grain producing area[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(12):163-171.
[20] 马丽,金凤君,刘毅.中国经济与环境污染耦合度格局及工业结构解析[J].地理学报,2012,67(10):1299-1307.MA L,JIN F J,LIU Y.Spatial pattern and industrial sector structure analysis on the coupling and coordinating degree of regional economic development and environmental pollution in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(10):1299-1307.
[21] 黄玛兰,李晓云,游良志.农业机械与农业劳动力投入对粮食产出的影响及其替代弹性[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2018(2):37-45,156.HUANG M L,LI X Y,YOU L Z.Impact of agricultural machinery and agricultural labor investment on grain production and its elasticity of substitution[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2018(2):37-45,156.
[22] DURANTON G,PUGA D.Nursery cities:Urban diversity,process innovation,and the life cycle o products[J].The American Economic Review,2001,91(5):1454-1477.
[23] 石忆邵,吴婕.上海城乡经济多样化测度方法及其演变特征[J].经济地理,2015,35(2):7-13.SHI Y S,WU J.Measuring methods and evolution features of urban-rural economic diversification in Shanghai[J].Economic geography ,2015,35(2):7-13.
(1)一般研究中将a=1作为临界值,当RCA≥1时,认为比较优势比较强;当0≤RCA≤1时则认为比较优势较弱.本文考虑了a=0.5和a=1两种划分标准,a=0.5的标准比a=1的标准更弱,在计算农作物多样性时涵盖的作物种类更多.
[2] AMELIE C.M.G,TOR N.T,ALAN P.K,et al.Increasing crop diversity mitigates weather variations and improves yield stability[J].Plos One,2015(6):1-20.
[3] HERMANN P P D,ALEKSANDRA B,CECILE D D,et al.Crop production and crop diversity in France:A spatial analysis[J].Ecological Economics,2017(134):29-39.
[4] MARTIN F.Agricultural diversity,structural change and long-run development:Evidence from the U.S[R].Working Paper,2017.
[5] 袁正,闵庆文,成升魁,等.哈尼梯田农田生物多样性及其在农户生计支持中的作用[C]//中国科学技术协会、云南省人民政府.第十六届中国科协年会——分4民族文化保护与生态文明建设学术研讨会论文集[C].中国科学技术协会、云南省人民政府:中国科学技术协会学会学术部,2014:6.YUAN Z,MIN Q W,CHENG S K,et al.The biodiversity in the farmland and its effects on the smallholders’ livelihoods[C]//China Association for science and technology and The People’s Government of Yunnan Province.The Sixteenth Annual Meeting of China Association for science and technology- The fourth points venue Proceedings of the Symposium on the protection of national culture and the construction of ecological civilization.China Association for science and technology and The People’s Government of Yunnan Province:Academic department of the association of science and technology of China,2014:6.
[6] 董文霞,肖春,李成云.作物多样性种植对农田害虫及天敌的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(4):435-442.DONG W X,XIAO C,LI C Y.Effect of diversified cropping on insect pests and natural enemies in agroecosystems[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2016,24(4):435-442.
[7] BENTLEY,JEFFERY.Economic and ecological ap-proaches to land fragmentation:in defence of a much-aligned phenomenon[J].Annual Review of Anthropology,1987,16:31-67.
[8] HUNG P V,MACAULAY T G,et al.The economics of land fragmentation in North of Vietnam[J].Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2007(51):195-211.
[9] 许庆,田士超,徐志刚,等.农地制度、土地细碎化与农民收入不平等[J].经济研究,2008(2):83-92,105.XU Q,TIAN S C,XU Z G,et al.Rural land system,land fragmentation and farmer’s income inequality[J].Economic Research Journal,2008(2):83-92,105.
[10] BLAREL B,PETER H,FRANK P,et al.The economics of farm fragmentation:Evidence from Ghana and Rwanda[J].World Bank Economic Review,1992,6(2):233-254.
[11] CARTER M R,YAO Y.Local versus global sep-arability in agricultural household models:The factor price equalization effect of land transfer rights[J].American Journal Agricultural Economics,2002(84):702-715.
[12] ROOT R B.Organization of a plant-arthropod association in simple and diverse habitats:The fauna of collards (Brassica olercea)[J].Ecological Monographs,1973,43(1):95-124.
[13] 杨志武,钟甫宁.农户种植业决策中的外部性研究[J].农业技术经济,2010(1):27-33.YANG Z W,ZHONG F N.Study on the externality of farmers' planting decision[J].Journal of Agrotechnical,2010(1):27-33.
[14] HAUSMANN R,HIDALGO C A.Country diversification,product ubiquity,and economic divergence,HKS faculty research[R].Harvard Kennedy School Working Paper Series No.RWP10-045,2010.
[15] 叶初升,邹欣.农产品出口多样性、普遍性与农业增长[J].中国农村经济,2016(3):82-96.YE C S,ZOU X.The diversity and ubiquity of export of agricultural products and growth of Agriculture[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2016(3):82-96.
[16] 赖斯芸,杜鹏飞,陈吉宁.基于单元分析的非点源污染调查评估方法[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004(9):1184-1187.LAI S Y,DU PF,CHEN J N.Evaluation of non-point source pollution based on unit analysis[J].Tsinghua University (Sci & Tech),2004(9):1184-1187.
[17] 王玉梅,任丽军,霍太英,等.山东省化肥流失状况及其对水环境污染的影响[J].鲁东大学学报(自然科学版),2009,25(3):263-266,270.WANG Y M,REN L J,HUO T Y,et al.Chemical fertilizer outflow and its influence on water environmental pollution in Shandong Province[J].Ludong University Joumal(Natural Science Edition) ,2009,25(3):263-266,270.
[18] 梁流涛.考虑“非意欲”产出的农业土地生产效率评价及其时空特征分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(12):2249-2255.LIANG L T.Agricultural land efficiency and temporal-spatial characteristics:Desired output and undesired pollution emissions[J].Resources Science,2012,34(12):2249-2255.
[19] 盖兆雪,孙萍,张景奇.环境约束下的粮食主产区耕地利用效率时空演变特征[J].经济地理,2017,37(12):163-171.GAI Z X,SUN P,ZHANG J Q.A study on with the cultivated land utilization efficiency and its difference with consideration of environmental constraints in major grain producing area[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(12):163-171.
[20] 马丽,金凤君,刘毅.中国经济与环境污染耦合度格局及工业结构解析[J].地理学报,2012,67(10):1299-1307.MA L,JIN F J,LIU Y.Spatial pattern and industrial sector structure analysis on the coupling and coordinating degree of regional economic development and environmental pollution in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(10):1299-1307.
[21] 黄玛兰,李晓云,游良志.农业机械与农业劳动力投入对粮食产出的影响及其替代弹性[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2018(2):37-45,156.HUANG M L,LI X Y,YOU L Z.Impact of agricultural machinery and agricultural labor investment on grain production and its elasticity of substitution[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2018(2):37-45,156.
[22] DURANTON G,PUGA D.Nursery cities:Urban diversity,process innovation,and the life cycle o products[J].The American Economic Review,2001,91(5):1454-1477.
[23] 石忆邵,吴婕.上海城乡经济多样化测度方法及其演变特征[J].经济地理,2015,35(2):7-13.SHI Y S,WU J.Measuring methods and evolution features of urban-rural economic diversification in Shanghai[J].Economic geography ,2015,35(2):7-13.
(1)一般研究中将a=1作为临界值,当RCA≥1时,认为比较优势比较强;当0≤RCA≤1时则认为比较优势较弱.本文考虑了a=0.5和a=1两种划分标准,a=0.5的标准比a=1的标准更弱,在计算农作物多样性时涵盖的作物种类更多.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |