基于经验模型的长江口南支上段压咸临界流量
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摘要
河口区域盐水入侵,威胁三角洲地区城市淡水资源取用及生态环境安全,合理确定压咸临界径流流量,有助于进一步改进流域水库群的调度模式。以长江口南支为例,利用2009-2014年期间60余个潮周期氯度资料,综合分析多种盐度预测经验模型的有效性,确定了抑制咸潮入侵的临界径流流量。结果表明:①咸潮入侵强度随径流与潮差组合而不同,长江口径流流量小于30000 m~3/s时可发生盐度超标现象,69%的盐度超标天数发生在流量小于15000 m~3/s时期,当径流量小于12000 m~3/s时盐度超标几率达65%;②盐度与潮差之间为指数型曲线关系,潮差总体呈半月周期变化,根据潮差累积频率分布得到平均意义上"连续10 d盐度超标"临界条件对应的青龙港潮差约为2.7 m,由此推算得到临界大通流量略大于11000 m~3/s;③采用多种盐度预测经验模型进行计算,避免连续10 d盐度超标对应的临界径流流量区间为11000～12000 m~3/s,平均阈值取为11500 m~3/s;④在三峡及上游梯级水库联合运行后,2008-2015年长江入海最低径流流量有所增加,但仍低于压咸潮临界阈值,建议优化水库调度模式,控制长江入海径流最低流量在11500 m~3/s以上。
In the Yangtze River Estuary, saltwater intrusion threatens eco-environment and freshwater intake. The estimation of the critical discharge for saltwater intrusion control helps improve the regulatory schemes of reservoirs in the Yangtze River Basin. In this study, the upper south branch of the Yangtze River Estuary was selected as a typical area to determine the critical discharge for saltwater intrusion control using different empirical models. Measured salinity data of more than 60 tidal cycles were used to analyze the characteristics of saltwater intrusion processes, and the validity of four empirical models was tested. Results indicated that(1) the intensity of saltwater intrusion changes with different combinations of discharges and tidal ranges, and saltwater intrusion occurs when the discharge at the Datong station is less than30000 m~3/s. Approximately 69% of saltwater intrusion days occur when the discharge is less than 15000 m~3/s. The probability of saltwater intrusion is 65% when the discharge is less than12000 m~3/s.(2) The tidal range in the Yangtze River Estuary shows a distinct feature of a semimonthly(15 days) periodical change, that is, the condition of "saltwater intrusion that ensues for more than 10 days" occurs with two-thirds frequency when the discharge is maintained at a certain critical value. On the basis of statistical analysis, the tidal range that corresponds to twothirds frequency is determined to be 2.7 m at the Qinglonggang station. With the exponential relationship between salinity and tidal range, the critical discharge at Datong has been estimated to be slightly higher than 11000 m~3/s.(3) The periodical changes in tidal range can be roughly described using sinusoidal functions. By introducing the tidal range functions into empirical models for saltwater intrusion, the change process of salinity under a certain discharge can be calculated. By using three empirical models, the calculation results show that the critical discharge at Datong is between 11000 and 12000 m~3/s. Thus, 11500 m~3/s can be regarded as the critical discharge to control the duration of saltwater intrusion to less than 10 days.(4) After the operations of the Three Gorges Project and its upstream cascade reservoirs,the minimum discharge into the sea in 2008-2015 increased but remained lower than the critical discharge. Therefore, the regulatory schemes of reservoirs in the Upstream Yangtze River must be optimized to release additional water during dry season. In particular, the minimum discharge into the sea should be maintained to be higher than 11500 m~3/s.
In the Yangtze River Estuary, saltwater intrusion threatens eco-environment and freshwater intake. The estimation of the critical discharge for saltwater intrusion control helps improve the regulatory schemes of reservoirs in the Yangtze River Basin. In this study, the upper south branch of the Yangtze River Estuary was selected as a typical area to determine the critical discharge for saltwater intrusion control using different empirical models. Measured salinity data of more than 60 tidal cycles were used to analyze the characteristics of saltwater intrusion processes, and the validity of four empirical models was tested. Results indicated that(1) the intensity of saltwater intrusion changes with different combinations of discharges and tidal ranges, and saltwater intrusion occurs when the discharge at the Datong station is less than30000 m~3/s. Approximately 69% of saltwater intrusion days occur when the discharge is less than 15000 m~3/s. The probability of saltwater intrusion is 65% when the discharge is less than12000 m~3/s.(2) The tidal range in the Yangtze River Estuary shows a distinct feature of a semimonthly(15 days) periodical change, that is, the condition of "saltwater intrusion that ensues for more than 10 days" occurs with two-thirds frequency when the discharge is maintained at a certain critical value. On the basis of statistical analysis, the tidal range that corresponds to twothirds frequency is determined to be 2.7 m at the Qinglonggang station. With the exponential relationship between salinity and tidal range, the critical discharge at Datong has been estimated to be slightly higher than 11000 m~3/s.(3) The periodical changes in tidal range can be roughly described using sinusoidal functions. By introducing the tidal range functions into empirical models for saltwater intrusion, the change process of salinity under a certain discharge can be calculated. By using three empirical models, the calculation results show that the critical discharge at Datong is between 11000 and 12000 m~3/s. Thus, 11500 m~3/s can be regarded as the critical discharge to control the duration of saltwater intrusion to less than 10 days.(4) After the operations of the Three Gorges Project and its upstream cascade reservoirs,the minimum discharge into the sea in 2008-2015 increased but remained lower than the critical discharge. Therefore, the regulatory schemes of reservoirs in the Upstream Yangtze River must be optimized to release additional water during dry season. In particular, the minimum discharge into the sea should be maintained to be higher than 11500 m~3/s.
引文
[1] Tang Jianhua, Xu Jianyi, Zhao Shengwei, et al. Research on saltwater intrusion of the south branch of the Changjiang Estuary based on measured data. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2011, 20(6):677-684.[唐建华,徐建益,赵升伟,等.基于实测资料的长江河口南支河段盐水入侵规律分析.长江流域资源与环境, 2011, 20(6):677-684.]
[2] Xiao Chengyou, Shen Huanting. The analysis of factors affecting the saltwater intrusion in Changjiang Estuary. Journal of East China Normal University, 1998(3):74-80.[肖成猷,沈焕庭.长江河口盐水入侵影响因子分析.华东师范大学学报(自然科学版), 1998(3):74-80.]
[3] Zhang E F, Savenije H H G, Wu H, et al. Analytical solution in the Yangtze Estuary, China. Estuarine, Costal and Shelf Science, 2011, 91(4):492-501.
[4] An Q, Wu Y Q, Taylor S, et al. Influence of the Three Project Gorges on saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze River.Environmental Geology, 2009, 56(8):1679-1686.
[5] Chen Zujun. Saltwater intrusion into water source zone in Yangtze Estuary in post-Three Gorges engineering era and countermeasures. Water Resources Protection, 2014, 30(3):19-24.[陈祖军.后三峡工程时代长江口水源地盐水入侵规律及其应对措施.水资源保护, 2014, 30(3):19-24.]
[6] Chen Jiyu, He Qing. The Research on Water Resources Safety in Shanghai under the Exceptionally Low Water Discharge in 2006. Beijing:China Ocean Press, 2009:22-36, 97-98.[陈吉余,何青. 2006年长江特枯水情对上海水资源安全的影响研究.北京:海洋出版社, 2009:22-36, 97-98.]
[7] Chen Minjie, Hu Yajie, Ma Jing, et al. Diffusion response function and preliminary application of saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze River Estuary. Advances in Water Science, 2017, 28(2):203-212.[陈敏捷,胡雅杰,马静等.长江口咸潮入侵扩散响应函数及初步应用.水科学进展, 2017, 28(2):203-212.]
[8] Changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources. Report of the comprehensive improvement and development planning of Yangtze River Estuary. Wuhan:Changjiang Water Resources Comission of the Ministry of Water Resources, 2005.[水利部长江水利委员会.长江口综合整治开发规划报告.武汉:水利部长江水利委员会, 2005.]
[9] Shen Huanting, Mao Zhichang, Gu Yuliang. Impacts of South-North water transfer(east route)on saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary with consideration of its countermeasures. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2002, 11(2):150-154.[沈焕庭,茅志昌,顾玉亮.东线南水北调工程对长江口咸水入侵影响及对策.长江流域资源与环境, 2002, 11(2):150-154.]
[10] Gu Yuliang, Wu Shoupei, Le Qin. Numerical simulation of flow field in upstream back water area of bridge and aqueduct. Yangtze River, 2003, 34(4):1-3, 16.[顾玉亮,吴守培,乐勤.北支盐水入侵对长江口水源地影响研究.人民长江, 2003, 34(4):1-3, 16.]
[11] Zhu Jianrong, Wu Hui, Li Lu, et al. Saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary in the extremely drought hydrologic year 2006. Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Science), 2010(4):1-6, 25.[朱建荣,吴辉,李路,等.极端干旱水文年(2006)中长江河口的盐水入侵.华东师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2010(4):1-6, 25.]
[12] Chen Qingjiang, Xu Jianyi, Zhu Jianrong, et al. Determination of critical flow for saline water intrusion into water source area of Yangtze River Estuary and guarantee measures. Yangtze River, 2011, 42(18):68-72.[陈庆江,徐建益,朱建荣,等.长江口水源地咸潮控制临界流量确定及保障措施.人民长江, 2011, 42(18):68-72.]
[13] Li Yaping, Wu Sanchao, Lei Jing, et al. Research on lowest water level of water supply for main cities in mid-lower Yangtze River. Yangtze River, 2013, 44(4):18-20.[李亚平,吴三潮,雷静,等.长江中下游主要城市供水保证水位(流量)研究.人民长江, 2013, 44(4):18-20.]
[14] Wang Wei. The research on the influence of the change of river discharge at Datong on the saltwater intrusion in Yangtze Estuary. Science Technology and Engineering, 2016, 16(3):106-111.[王伟.上游大通径流量对长江盐水入侵影响研究.科学技术与工程, 2016, 16(3):106-111.]
[15] Hou Chengcheng, Zhu Jianrong. The response time of saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang River Estuary to the change of river discharge in dry season. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2013, 35(4):29-35.[侯成程,朱建荣.长江河口盐水入侵对大通枯季径流量变化的响应时间.海洋学报, 2013, 35(4):29-35.]
[16] Mao Zhichang, Shen Huanting, Yao Yunda. Analysis of sources of saltwater intrusion along south bank of south branch of Yangtze River Estuary. Marine Science Bullutin, 1993, 12(3):17-25.[茅志昌,沈焕庭,姚运达.长江口南支南岸水域盐水入侵来源分析.海洋通报, 1993, 12(3):17-25.]
[17] Zheng Xiaoqin, Xiao Wenjun, Yu Yun, et al. Statistical prediction study of runoff and tide on Changjiang River saltwater intrusion. Marine Forecast, 2014, 31(4):18-23.[郑晓琴,肖文军,于芸,等.基于径流和潮汐的长江口盐水入侵统计预测研究.海洋预报, 2014, 31(4):18-23.]
[18] Chen Li, Zhu Jianrong, Wang Biao. The statistical model of saltwater intrusion at Chenghang reservior in Yangtze Estuary. Water&Wastewater Engineering, 2013, 39(7):162-165.[陈立,朱建荣,王彪.长江河口陈行水库盐水入侵统计模型研究.给水排水, 2013, 39(7):162-165.]
[19] Xu Jianyi, Yuan Jianzhong. The research on salt-water intrusion into the south branch of the Yangtze Estuary.Hydrology, 1994(5):1-6.[徐建益,袁建忠.长江口南支河段盐水入侵规律的研究.水文, 1994(5):1-6.]
[20] Zhao Shengwei, Tang Jianhua, Tao Jing, et al. Impacts of Three Gorges project on the Yangtze River's discharge into the sea and the water supply in Shanghai. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2012, 31(6):62-69.[赵升伟,唐建华,陶静,等.三峡运行对长江入海流量及上海市供水的影响.水力发电学报, 2012, 31(6):62-69.]
[21] Zhang Erfeng, Chen Xiqing. Changes of water discharge between Datong and the Changjiang River Estuary during the dry season. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(2):231-238.[张二凤,陈西庆.长江大通—河口段枯季的径流量变化.地理学报, 2003, 58(2):231-238.]
[22] Tang Jianhua, Liu Weiyi, Zhao Shengwei. Discharge relationships between Xuliujing of Yangtze River estuary and Datong. Water Resources and Power. 2011, 29(7):4-7.[唐建华,刘玮祎,赵升伟.长江口徐六泾流量与大通流量间关系的探讨.水电能源科学, 2011, 29(7):4-7.]
[23] He Songlin, Ding Pingxing, Kong Yazhen. Changes of salinity in south branch of the Yangtze estuary in dry seasons and the saltwater intrusion from north branch. Advances in Natural Science, 2006, 16(5):584-589.[贺松林,丁平兴,孔亚珍.长江口南支河段枯季盐度变异与北支咸水倒灌.自然科学进展. 2006, 16(5):584-589.]
[24] Parsa J, Amir E. S. An empirical model for salinity intrusion in alluvial estuaries. Ocean Dynamics, 2011, 61(10):1619-1628.
[25] Chen Shangwei, Jin Zhaosen. The study about the method of tidal level forecast in Yangtze river. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 1989, 20(6):41-47.[陈尚渭,金兆森.长江潮位预报方法的研究.水利学报, 1989, 20(6):41-47.]
[26] Horrevoets A, Savenije H H G, Schuurman J, et al. The influence of river discharge on tidal damping in alluvial estuaries. Journal of Hydrology, 2004, 294:213-228.
[27] Lu Chuanteng, Luo Xiaofeng, Chen Zhichang. Influence of different runoffs on tidal wave propagation at Yangtze River Estuary. Yangtze River, 2010, 41(12):45-48.[路川藤,罗小峰,陈志昌.长江口不同径流量对潮波传播的影响.人民长江, 2010, 41(12):45-48.]
[28] State Environmental Protection Administration of China. Standard of Surface Water Environmental Quality(GB3838-2002). Beijing:China Environmental Science Press, 2002.[中华人民共和国国家环境保护总局. GB3838-2002地表水环境质量标准.北京:中国环境科学出版社, 2002.]
[29] Sun Zhaohua, Yan Xin, Xie Cuisong, et al. An empirical predictive model for saltwater intrusion in the south branch influenced by tidal flow from the north branch in the Yangtze River Estuary. Advances in Water Science, 2017, 28(2):213-222.[孙昭华,严鑫,谢翠松,等.长江口北支倒灌影响区域盐度预测经验模型.水科学进展, 2017, 28(2):213-222.]
[30] Cheng X Q, Zong Y Q, Zhang E F, et al. Human impacts on the Changjaing(Yangtze)River basin, China, with special reference to the impacts on the dry season water discharge into the sea. Geomorphology, 2001, 41(2/3):111-123.
[31] Chen D, Michel W, Brian F, et al. The impact of water transfer from the lower Yangtze River on water security in Shanghai. Applied Geography, 2013, 45:303-310.
[2] Xiao Chengyou, Shen Huanting. The analysis of factors affecting the saltwater intrusion in Changjiang Estuary. Journal of East China Normal University, 1998(3):74-80.[肖成猷,沈焕庭.长江河口盐水入侵影响因子分析.华东师范大学学报(自然科学版), 1998(3):74-80.]
[3] Zhang E F, Savenije H H G, Wu H, et al. Analytical solution in the Yangtze Estuary, China. Estuarine, Costal and Shelf Science, 2011, 91(4):492-501.
[4] An Q, Wu Y Q, Taylor S, et al. Influence of the Three Project Gorges on saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze River.Environmental Geology, 2009, 56(8):1679-1686.
[5] Chen Zujun. Saltwater intrusion into water source zone in Yangtze Estuary in post-Three Gorges engineering era and countermeasures. Water Resources Protection, 2014, 30(3):19-24.[陈祖军.后三峡工程时代长江口水源地盐水入侵规律及其应对措施.水资源保护, 2014, 30(3):19-24.]
[6] Chen Jiyu, He Qing. The Research on Water Resources Safety in Shanghai under the Exceptionally Low Water Discharge in 2006. Beijing:China Ocean Press, 2009:22-36, 97-98.[陈吉余,何青. 2006年长江特枯水情对上海水资源安全的影响研究.北京:海洋出版社, 2009:22-36, 97-98.]
[7] Chen Minjie, Hu Yajie, Ma Jing, et al. Diffusion response function and preliminary application of saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze River Estuary. Advances in Water Science, 2017, 28(2):203-212.[陈敏捷,胡雅杰,马静等.长江口咸潮入侵扩散响应函数及初步应用.水科学进展, 2017, 28(2):203-212.]
[8] Changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources. Report of the comprehensive improvement and development planning of Yangtze River Estuary. Wuhan:Changjiang Water Resources Comission of the Ministry of Water Resources, 2005.[水利部长江水利委员会.长江口综合整治开发规划报告.武汉:水利部长江水利委员会, 2005.]
[9] Shen Huanting, Mao Zhichang, Gu Yuliang. Impacts of South-North water transfer(east route)on saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary with consideration of its countermeasures. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2002, 11(2):150-154.[沈焕庭,茅志昌,顾玉亮.东线南水北调工程对长江口咸水入侵影响及对策.长江流域资源与环境, 2002, 11(2):150-154.]
[10] Gu Yuliang, Wu Shoupei, Le Qin. Numerical simulation of flow field in upstream back water area of bridge and aqueduct. Yangtze River, 2003, 34(4):1-3, 16.[顾玉亮,吴守培,乐勤.北支盐水入侵对长江口水源地影响研究.人民长江, 2003, 34(4):1-3, 16.]
[11] Zhu Jianrong, Wu Hui, Li Lu, et al. Saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary in the extremely drought hydrologic year 2006. Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Science), 2010(4):1-6, 25.[朱建荣,吴辉,李路,等.极端干旱水文年(2006)中长江河口的盐水入侵.华东师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2010(4):1-6, 25.]
[12] Chen Qingjiang, Xu Jianyi, Zhu Jianrong, et al. Determination of critical flow for saline water intrusion into water source area of Yangtze River Estuary and guarantee measures. Yangtze River, 2011, 42(18):68-72.[陈庆江,徐建益,朱建荣,等.长江口水源地咸潮控制临界流量确定及保障措施.人民长江, 2011, 42(18):68-72.]
[13] Li Yaping, Wu Sanchao, Lei Jing, et al. Research on lowest water level of water supply for main cities in mid-lower Yangtze River. Yangtze River, 2013, 44(4):18-20.[李亚平,吴三潮,雷静,等.长江中下游主要城市供水保证水位(流量)研究.人民长江, 2013, 44(4):18-20.]
[14] Wang Wei. The research on the influence of the change of river discharge at Datong on the saltwater intrusion in Yangtze Estuary. Science Technology and Engineering, 2016, 16(3):106-111.[王伟.上游大通径流量对长江盐水入侵影响研究.科学技术与工程, 2016, 16(3):106-111.]
[15] Hou Chengcheng, Zhu Jianrong. The response time of saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang River Estuary to the change of river discharge in dry season. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2013, 35(4):29-35.[侯成程,朱建荣.长江河口盐水入侵对大通枯季径流量变化的响应时间.海洋学报, 2013, 35(4):29-35.]
[16] Mao Zhichang, Shen Huanting, Yao Yunda. Analysis of sources of saltwater intrusion along south bank of south branch of Yangtze River Estuary. Marine Science Bullutin, 1993, 12(3):17-25.[茅志昌,沈焕庭,姚运达.长江口南支南岸水域盐水入侵来源分析.海洋通报, 1993, 12(3):17-25.]
[17] Zheng Xiaoqin, Xiao Wenjun, Yu Yun, et al. Statistical prediction study of runoff and tide on Changjiang River saltwater intrusion. Marine Forecast, 2014, 31(4):18-23.[郑晓琴,肖文军,于芸,等.基于径流和潮汐的长江口盐水入侵统计预测研究.海洋预报, 2014, 31(4):18-23.]
[18] Chen Li, Zhu Jianrong, Wang Biao. The statistical model of saltwater intrusion at Chenghang reservior in Yangtze Estuary. Water&Wastewater Engineering, 2013, 39(7):162-165.[陈立,朱建荣,王彪.长江河口陈行水库盐水入侵统计模型研究.给水排水, 2013, 39(7):162-165.]
[19] Xu Jianyi, Yuan Jianzhong. The research on salt-water intrusion into the south branch of the Yangtze Estuary.Hydrology, 1994(5):1-6.[徐建益,袁建忠.长江口南支河段盐水入侵规律的研究.水文, 1994(5):1-6.]
[20] Zhao Shengwei, Tang Jianhua, Tao Jing, et al. Impacts of Three Gorges project on the Yangtze River's discharge into the sea and the water supply in Shanghai. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2012, 31(6):62-69.[赵升伟,唐建华,陶静,等.三峡运行对长江入海流量及上海市供水的影响.水力发电学报, 2012, 31(6):62-69.]
[21] Zhang Erfeng, Chen Xiqing. Changes of water discharge between Datong and the Changjiang River Estuary during the dry season. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(2):231-238.[张二凤,陈西庆.长江大通—河口段枯季的径流量变化.地理学报, 2003, 58(2):231-238.]
[22] Tang Jianhua, Liu Weiyi, Zhao Shengwei. Discharge relationships between Xuliujing of Yangtze River estuary and Datong. Water Resources and Power. 2011, 29(7):4-7.[唐建华,刘玮祎,赵升伟.长江口徐六泾流量与大通流量间关系的探讨.水电能源科学, 2011, 29(7):4-7.]
[23] He Songlin, Ding Pingxing, Kong Yazhen. Changes of salinity in south branch of the Yangtze estuary in dry seasons and the saltwater intrusion from north branch. Advances in Natural Science, 2006, 16(5):584-589.[贺松林,丁平兴,孔亚珍.长江口南支河段枯季盐度变异与北支咸水倒灌.自然科学进展. 2006, 16(5):584-589.]
[24] Parsa J, Amir E. S. An empirical model for salinity intrusion in alluvial estuaries. Ocean Dynamics, 2011, 61(10):1619-1628.
[25] Chen Shangwei, Jin Zhaosen. The study about the method of tidal level forecast in Yangtze river. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 1989, 20(6):41-47.[陈尚渭,金兆森.长江潮位预报方法的研究.水利学报, 1989, 20(6):41-47.]
[26] Horrevoets A, Savenije H H G, Schuurman J, et al. The influence of river discharge on tidal damping in alluvial estuaries. Journal of Hydrology, 2004, 294:213-228.
[27] Lu Chuanteng, Luo Xiaofeng, Chen Zhichang. Influence of different runoffs on tidal wave propagation at Yangtze River Estuary. Yangtze River, 2010, 41(12):45-48.[路川藤,罗小峰,陈志昌.长江口不同径流量对潮波传播的影响.人民长江, 2010, 41(12):45-48.]
[28] State Environmental Protection Administration of China. Standard of Surface Water Environmental Quality(GB3838-2002). Beijing:China Environmental Science Press, 2002.[中华人民共和国国家环境保护总局. GB3838-2002地表水环境质量标准.北京:中国环境科学出版社, 2002.]
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