政府短期干预行为对住宅地价周期波动的影响
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摘要
为探究政府短期干预对地价周期波动的影响,从理论上提出政府在双重角色下对土地市场进行政策调控,宏观经济环境突变或"经济人"模式的行事原则均造成了政策的短期波动,从而加剧信息不对称,影响市场主体预期,扩大地价波动。通过对全国31个城市进行实证测算,采用k-means聚类方法,根据住宅地价的波动性特征将31个城市分为4类,并选择上海市、北京市进行住宅地价周期波动与政策短期干预之间的回归分析。研究发现,各城市住宅地价波动均展现出"陡升缓降"的非对称结构,但政府短期干预行为对住宅地价周期波动的影响在不同城市中存在明显差异。北京市住宅地价周期波动受政府短期干预影响不显著,而上海市住宅地价周期波动与政府短期干预行为之间呈现显著正向关系,且不同政策影响程度不同,财政政策变化对住宅地价波动影响最大,货币政策影响次之,土地政策影响最小。
In order to explore the effect of short-term government intervention on the periodic fluctuation of land price, this study put forward that the government takes on dual roles when it makes policy to adjust and control the land market. Meanwhile, change of the macroeconomic environment and behavior of the "economic man" would lead to the short-term volatility of policy,thus aggravating information asymmetry, affecting the expectation of market subjects and increasing land price fluctuations. Based on the empirical estimates and using k-means clustering method, 31 cities in China were divided into four categories according to the characteristics of fluctuation of residential land price. The study selected Beijing and Shanghai, among the 31 cities,for regression analysis between the periodic fluctuation of residential land price and short-term policy intervention. The study found that although the fluctuation of residential land price in all cities showed an asymmetric structure of"sharp rise and slow fall", the impact of government short-term intervention behavior on the fluctuation of residential land price had obvious differences among these cities. The fluctuation of residential land price in Beijing was not significantly affected by the short-term intervention of the government, while there was a significant positive correlation between the short-term intervention by means of macroeconomic policies of the government and the fluctuation of residential land price in Shanghai. In addition, different policies showed different impact intensities. The change of fiscal policies had the greatest effect on the fluctuation of residential land price, followed by monetary policy and land policy.
In order to explore the effect of short-term government intervention on the periodic fluctuation of land price, this study put forward that the government takes on dual roles when it makes policy to adjust and control the land market. Meanwhile, change of the macroeconomic environment and behavior of the "economic man" would lead to the short-term volatility of policy,thus aggravating information asymmetry, affecting the expectation of market subjects and increasing land price fluctuations. Based on the empirical estimates and using k-means clustering method, 31 cities in China were divided into four categories according to the characteristics of fluctuation of residential land price. The study selected Beijing and Shanghai, among the 31 cities,for regression analysis between the periodic fluctuation of residential land price and short-term policy intervention. The study found that although the fluctuation of residential land price in all cities showed an asymmetric structure of"sharp rise and slow fall", the impact of government short-term intervention behavior on the fluctuation of residential land price had obvious differences among these cities. The fluctuation of residential land price in Beijing was not significantly affected by the short-term intervention of the government, while there was a significant positive correlation between the short-term intervention by means of macroeconomic policies of the government and the fluctuation of residential land price in Shanghai. In addition, different policies showed different impact intensities. The change of fiscal policies had the greatest effect on the fluctuation of residential land price, followed by monetary policy and land policy.
引文
[1]程民选,冯庆元.试析新时代“房住不炒”定位的理论逻辑:基于大卫·哈维的马克思主义经济学分析框架[J].经济问题,2019(1):1-5.[Cheng M X,Feng Q Y.The Theoretical Logic of the Orientation of“Residence without Speculation”in the New Era:Based on David Harvey’s Analysis Framework of Marxist Economics[J].On Economic Problems,2019,(1):1-5.]
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[3]余建辉,张文忠,董冠鹏.北京市居住用地特征价格的空间分异特征[J].地理研究,2013,32(6):1113-1120.[Yu J H,Zhang WZ,Dong G P.Spatial heterogeneity in the attributes prices of residential land in Beijing[J].Geographical Research,2013,32(6):1113-1120.]
[4]隋雪艳,吴巍,周生路,等.都市新区住宅地价空间异质性驱动因素研究:基于空间扩展模型和GWR模型的对比[J].地理科学,2015,35(6):683-689.[Sui X Y,Wu W,Zhou S L,et al.Drive pattern on the spatial heterogeneity of residential land price in urban:Based on the comparison of spatial extension model and GWRmodel[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(6):683-689.]
[5]丁洪建.基于面板数据的省会城市居住地价的差异及成因研究[J].中国土地科学,2009,(6):14-19.[Ding H J.An analysis of the discrepancies of residential land prices and its causes based on the panel data of provincial capitals in China[J].China Land Sciences,2009,(6):14-19.]
[6]叶剑平,李嘉.“住房-土地-财税-金融”四位一体房地产调控长效机制构建研究:基于DSII政策分析框架和ITS模型[J].中国软科学,2018,(12):67-86.[Ye J P,Li J.Study on quaternity of“housing-land-fiscal-finance”policies for establishing the longterm real estate regulation mechanism[J].China Soft Science,2018,(12):67-86.]
[7]陈创练,戴明晓.货币政策、杠杆周期与房地产市场价格波动[J].经济研究,2018,53(9):52-67.[Chen C L,Dai M X.Monetary policy,leverage cycle and house price fluctuation[J].Economic Research Journal,2018,53(9):52-67.]
[8]孙斌艺,卢雅.财政政策对住房价格影响的理论和实证分析[J].上海房地,2017,(6):8-11.[Sun B Y,Lu Y.Theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of fiscal policies on housing prices[J].Shanghai Real Estate,2017,(6):8-11.]
[9]唐健,徐小峰.近年来房地产调控中的土地政策评析[J].中国土地科学,2011,25(3):9-15.[Tang J,Xu X F.Performance of the land policies for real estate market intervention in China in recent years[J].China Land Sciences,2011,25(3):9-15.]
[10]张莉,年永威,皮嘉勇.土地政策、供地结构与房价[J].经济学报,2017,4(1):91-118.[Zhang L,Nian Y W,Pi J Y.Land policy,land supply structure and housing prices[J].China Journal of Economics,2017,4(1):91-118.]
[11]闫建,娄文龙.我国住房限购政策变迁研究:基于对多源流理论修正的视角[J].理论探索,2018,(6):96-103.[Yan J,Lou W L.Study on the policy change of housing restriction in China:A perspective based on the correction of multi-source theory[J].Theoretical Exploration,2018,(6):96-103.]
[12]冯波.我国土地价格调控效果的实证研究:基于货币政策和土地政策的调控效果分析[J].价格理论与实践,2013,(9):54-55.[Feng B.Empirical study on the effect of land price control in China:Based on the analysis of the effect of monetary policy and land policy[J].Price:Theory and Practice,2013,(9):54-55.]
[13]何鑫,朱宏泉.货币政策、住房需求与地价的动态关系研究[J].经济体制改革,2012,(6):146-150.[He X,Zhu H Q.Study on the dynamic relationship between monetary policy,housing demand and land price[J].Reform of Economic System,2012,(6):146-150.]
[14]彭飞,朱道林,谢保鹏,等.货币政策对住宅地价影响的区域异质性研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(8):62-67.[Peng F,Zhu D l,Xie B P,et al.The regional heterogeneity of the impact of monetary policy on residential land price[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30(8):62-67.]
[15]丰雷,卢静.2004年以来中国房地产用地市场发展及房地产用地价格决定因素分析[J].中国土地科学,2013,27(4):29-35.[Feng L,Lu J.The development of real estate land market and the impact factors of residential land prices in China since 2004[J].China Land Sciences,2013,27(4):29-35.]
[16]余华义,陈东.中国地价、利率与房价的关联性研究[J].经济评论,2009,(4):41-49.[Yu H Y,Chen D.Study on the relevance of land price,interest rate and house price in China[J].Economic Review,2009,(4):41-49.]
[17]吴淑萍,杨赞.基于双重差分模型的土地限价出让行为研究[J].统计与决策,2016,(22):136-140.[Wu S P,Yang Z.Study on land limit sale behavior based on double difference model[J].Statistics and Decision,2016,(22):136-140.]
[18]朱道林,李瑶瑶.农村土地制度改革的经济学考察[J].中国土地科学,2018,32(3):1-5.[Zhu D L,Li Y Y.Economic investigation on rural land institutional reform[J].China Land Science,2018,32(3):1-5.]
[19]雷爱先.市场配置与政府调控[J].中国土地,2003,(6):9-11.[Lei A X.Market allocation and government regulation[J].China Land,2003,(6):9-11.]
[20]张浩,李仲飞,邓柏峻.政策不确定、宏观冲击与房价波动:基于LSTVAR模型的实证分析[J].金融研究,2015,(10):32-46.[Zhang H,Li Z F,Deng B J.The policy uncertainty,macro impact and housing price fluctuation:Based on the LSTVAR model[J].Journal of Financial Research,2015,(10):32-46.]
[21]陈会广,刘忠原,张耀宇.房地产市场及其细分的调控重点区域划分理论与实证:以中国35个大中城市为例[J].资源科学,2012,34(10):1871-1880.[Chen H G,Liu Z Y,Zhang Y Y.ATheoretical zoning and empirical study on control of the real estate market and its segmentation in 35 major cities,China[J].Resources Science,2012,34(10):1871-1880.]
[22]陈振明.公共管理学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2017.[Chen Z M.Public Management[M].Beijing:China Renmin University Press,2017.]
[23]周宙,魏杰.政府宏观经济政策与经济波动的关系:经济失衡形成和传递机制的分析及对中国数据的考量[J].经济学动态,2015,(4):23-34.[Zhou Z,Wei J.Relationship between government macroeconomic policies and economic fluctuations:Analysis of the formation and transmission mechanism of economic imbalances and consideration of Chinese data[J].Economics Information,2015,(4):23-34.]
[24]中国国土勘测规划院.中国地价信息服务平台[EB/OL].(2019-05-29)[2018-12-07].http://www.landvalue.com.cn/.[China Land Surveying and Planning.China Land Price Information Service Platform[EB/OL].(2019-05-29)[2018-12-07].http://www.landvalue.com.cn/.]
[25]北京福卡斯特信息技术有限公司.EPS全球统计数据/分析平台[EB/OL].(2019-02-26)[2018-11-10].http://www.epsnet.com.cn/.[Beijing Forcaster Information Technology Co.,Ltd.Economy Prediction System[EB/OL].(2019-02-26)[2018-11-10].http://www.epsnet.com.cn/.]
[26]中国指数研究院.CREIS中指数据库[EB/OL].(2019-05-29)[2018-11-10].https://industry.fang.com/data/service.[China Index Academy.CREIS Index Database[EB/OL].(2019-05-29)[2018-11-10].https://industry.fang.com/data/service.]
[27]中经网数据有限公司.中经网统计数据库[EB/OL].(2019-05-29)[2018-11-10].http://www.cei.gov.cn/.[China Economic Information.China Economic Information Network[EB/OL].(2019-05-29)[2018-11-10].http://www.cei.gov.cn/.]
[28]梁若冰,汤韵.地方公共品供给中的Tiebout模型:基于中国城市房价的经验研究[J].世界经济,2008,(10):71-83.[Liang R B,Tang Y.Tiebout model and the provision of local public goods:An empirical study on Chinese housing price[J].The Journal of World Economic,2008,(10):71-83.]
(1)Baker等从2003年开始尝试构建与政策相关的政策不确定性指数,并在2013年专门构建了中国1995年以来的政策不确定性指数(Economic Policy Uncertainty Index),http://www.policyuncertainty.com/。
[2]彭代彦,彭旭辉.中国城市地价波动的幂律特性[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(1):61-67.[Peng D Y,Peng X H.Power laws features of land price fluctuation in Chinese cities[J].China Land Sciences,2016,30(1):61-67.]
[3]余建辉,张文忠,董冠鹏.北京市居住用地特征价格的空间分异特征[J].地理研究,2013,32(6):1113-1120.[Yu J H,Zhang WZ,Dong G P.Spatial heterogeneity in the attributes prices of residential land in Beijing[J].Geographical Research,2013,32(6):1113-1120.]
[4]隋雪艳,吴巍,周生路,等.都市新区住宅地价空间异质性驱动因素研究:基于空间扩展模型和GWR模型的对比[J].地理科学,2015,35(6):683-689.[Sui X Y,Wu W,Zhou S L,et al.Drive pattern on the spatial heterogeneity of residential land price in urban:Based on the comparison of spatial extension model and GWRmodel[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(6):683-689.]
[5]丁洪建.基于面板数据的省会城市居住地价的差异及成因研究[J].中国土地科学,2009,(6):14-19.[Ding H J.An analysis of the discrepancies of residential land prices and its causes based on the panel data of provincial capitals in China[J].China Land Sciences,2009,(6):14-19.]
[6]叶剑平,李嘉.“住房-土地-财税-金融”四位一体房地产调控长效机制构建研究:基于DSII政策分析框架和ITS模型[J].中国软科学,2018,(12):67-86.[Ye J P,Li J.Study on quaternity of“housing-land-fiscal-finance”policies for establishing the longterm real estate regulation mechanism[J].China Soft Science,2018,(12):67-86.]
[7]陈创练,戴明晓.货币政策、杠杆周期与房地产市场价格波动[J].经济研究,2018,53(9):52-67.[Chen C L,Dai M X.Monetary policy,leverage cycle and house price fluctuation[J].Economic Research Journal,2018,53(9):52-67.]
[8]孙斌艺,卢雅.财政政策对住房价格影响的理论和实证分析[J].上海房地,2017,(6):8-11.[Sun B Y,Lu Y.Theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of fiscal policies on housing prices[J].Shanghai Real Estate,2017,(6):8-11.]
[9]唐健,徐小峰.近年来房地产调控中的土地政策评析[J].中国土地科学,2011,25(3):9-15.[Tang J,Xu X F.Performance of the land policies for real estate market intervention in China in recent years[J].China Land Sciences,2011,25(3):9-15.]
[10]张莉,年永威,皮嘉勇.土地政策、供地结构与房价[J].经济学报,2017,4(1):91-118.[Zhang L,Nian Y W,Pi J Y.Land policy,land supply structure and housing prices[J].China Journal of Economics,2017,4(1):91-118.]
[11]闫建,娄文龙.我国住房限购政策变迁研究:基于对多源流理论修正的视角[J].理论探索,2018,(6):96-103.[Yan J,Lou W L.Study on the policy change of housing restriction in China:A perspective based on the correction of multi-source theory[J].Theoretical Exploration,2018,(6):96-103.]
[12]冯波.我国土地价格调控效果的实证研究:基于货币政策和土地政策的调控效果分析[J].价格理论与实践,2013,(9):54-55.[Feng B.Empirical study on the effect of land price control in China:Based on the analysis of the effect of monetary policy and land policy[J].Price:Theory and Practice,2013,(9):54-55.]
[13]何鑫,朱宏泉.货币政策、住房需求与地价的动态关系研究[J].经济体制改革,2012,(6):146-150.[He X,Zhu H Q.Study on the dynamic relationship between monetary policy,housing demand and land price[J].Reform of Economic System,2012,(6):146-150.]
[14]彭飞,朱道林,谢保鹏,等.货币政策对住宅地价影响的区域异质性研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(8):62-67.[Peng F,Zhu D l,Xie B P,et al.The regional heterogeneity of the impact of monetary policy on residential land price[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30(8):62-67.]
[15]丰雷,卢静.2004年以来中国房地产用地市场发展及房地产用地价格决定因素分析[J].中国土地科学,2013,27(4):29-35.[Feng L,Lu J.The development of real estate land market and the impact factors of residential land prices in China since 2004[J].China Land Sciences,2013,27(4):29-35.]
[16]余华义,陈东.中国地价、利率与房价的关联性研究[J].经济评论,2009,(4):41-49.[Yu H Y,Chen D.Study on the relevance of land price,interest rate and house price in China[J].Economic Review,2009,(4):41-49.]
[17]吴淑萍,杨赞.基于双重差分模型的土地限价出让行为研究[J].统计与决策,2016,(22):136-140.[Wu S P,Yang Z.Study on land limit sale behavior based on double difference model[J].Statistics and Decision,2016,(22):136-140.]
[18]朱道林,李瑶瑶.农村土地制度改革的经济学考察[J].中国土地科学,2018,32(3):1-5.[Zhu D L,Li Y Y.Economic investigation on rural land institutional reform[J].China Land Science,2018,32(3):1-5.]
[19]雷爱先.市场配置与政府调控[J].中国土地,2003,(6):9-11.[Lei A X.Market allocation and government regulation[J].China Land,2003,(6):9-11.]
[20]张浩,李仲飞,邓柏峻.政策不确定、宏观冲击与房价波动:基于LSTVAR模型的实证分析[J].金融研究,2015,(10):32-46.[Zhang H,Li Z F,Deng B J.The policy uncertainty,macro impact and housing price fluctuation:Based on the LSTVAR model[J].Journal of Financial Research,2015,(10):32-46.]
[21]陈会广,刘忠原,张耀宇.房地产市场及其细分的调控重点区域划分理论与实证:以中国35个大中城市为例[J].资源科学,2012,34(10):1871-1880.[Chen H G,Liu Z Y,Zhang Y Y.ATheoretical zoning and empirical study on control of the real estate market and its segmentation in 35 major cities,China[J].Resources Science,2012,34(10):1871-1880.]
[22]陈振明.公共管理学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2017.[Chen Z M.Public Management[M].Beijing:China Renmin University Press,2017.]
[23]周宙,魏杰.政府宏观经济政策与经济波动的关系:经济失衡形成和传递机制的分析及对中国数据的考量[J].经济学动态,2015,(4):23-34.[Zhou Z,Wei J.Relationship between government macroeconomic policies and economic fluctuations:Analysis of the formation and transmission mechanism of economic imbalances and consideration of Chinese data[J].Economics Information,2015,(4):23-34.]
[24]中国国土勘测规划院.中国地价信息服务平台[EB/OL].(2019-05-29)[2018-12-07].http://www.landvalue.com.cn/.[China Land Surveying and Planning.China Land Price Information Service Platform[EB/OL].(2019-05-29)[2018-12-07].http://www.landvalue.com.cn/.]
[25]北京福卡斯特信息技术有限公司.EPS全球统计数据/分析平台[EB/OL].(2019-02-26)[2018-11-10].http://www.epsnet.com.cn/.[Beijing Forcaster Information Technology Co.,Ltd.Economy Prediction System[EB/OL].(2019-02-26)[2018-11-10].http://www.epsnet.com.cn/.]
[26]中国指数研究院.CREIS中指数据库[EB/OL].(2019-05-29)[2018-11-10].https://industry.fang.com/data/service.[China Index Academy.CREIS Index Database[EB/OL].(2019-05-29)[2018-11-10].https://industry.fang.com/data/service.]
[27]中经网数据有限公司.中经网统计数据库[EB/OL].(2019-05-29)[2018-11-10].http://www.cei.gov.cn/.[China Economic Information.China Economic Information Network[EB/OL].(2019-05-29)[2018-11-10].http://www.cei.gov.cn/.]
[28]梁若冰,汤韵.地方公共品供给中的Tiebout模型:基于中国城市房价的经验研究[J].世界经济,2008,(10):71-83.[Liang R B,Tang Y.Tiebout model and the provision of local public goods:An empirical study on Chinese housing price[J].The Journal of World Economic,2008,(10):71-83.]
(1)Baker等从2003年开始尝试构建与政策相关的政策不确定性指数,并在2013年专门构建了中国1995年以来的政策不确定性指数(Economic Policy Uncertainty Index),http://www.policyuncertainty.com/。
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