雾霾会促进公众绿色投资意愿么?——基于SEM的实证研究
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摘要
当下雾霾天气愈发严重,全国各省市相继推出一系列雾霾治理政策,绿色债券、绿色基金等一系列绿色金融产品涌现,一方面政策大力支持环保企业发展,另一方面投资者对于绿色金融市场的参与热情并不高,因此研究雾霾相关政策如何引导公众参与绿色投资具有重要的政策意义。本文根据雾霾污染程度及政策力度两个指标,将中国省级区域划分为高、中、低雾霾敏感区,基于"风险感知-态度-行为"理论框架,设计里克特5级量表,对高、中敏感区人群按照雾霾风险感知、风险偏好和绿色投资意愿三个潜变量构建结构方程模型,并以低敏感区投资者的绿色投资意愿进行对照分析,共收集有效问卷517份,利用SPSS和AMOS等软件进行数据测算以及模型拟合,研究雾霾风险对公众绿色投资意愿的长期影响。结果表明:对于高、中敏感区投资者来说,绿色投资意愿与纯粹的风险偏好之间没有直接关系,但在风险偏好与雾霾风险感知两个因素的相互作用下,公众绿色投资意愿与雾霾风险感知呈现显著的正相关;对照分析表明,低雾霾敏感区与高、中敏感区的绿色投资意愿同样强烈。公众的绿色投资意愿的表现为:公众投资者期望提高绿色金融产品的环境信息披露水平,愿意接受低于常规收益的雾霾治理类投资产品,并看好环保类股票的投资价值。这表明充分披露雾霾天气情况,提高绿色金融产品标的资产的环境信息披露水平以及加强监管等,都有利于促进公众的绿色投资意愿,且该意愿在全国范围内没有显著差异,因此引导各地区绿色投资的协调发展具有良好前景。同时投资者对绿色投资不存在先入为主的风险水平判断,在合理的引导下,绿色产业可能获得平等或更多的融资机会。政府应加大支持力度支持有资质的企业发行绿色债券及绿色股票;金融机构应有针对性地推出环保类投资理财产品,丰富绿色投资市场的产品种类,为环保项目提供资金支持,让公众投资者拥有更多参与绿色投资的机会。
Chinese air quality is currently inadequate,influencing our daily life. The government has launched countless smog governance policies,meanwhile,a series of green financial products like green bonds and green funds have emerged. As government together with enterprises is supporting and developing green programs,public investors are not so into it,and therefore the research of the impact on public green investment behavior exerted by smog risk has great policy significance. This paper considers both air quality and policy strength,and classifies provincial areas into three sensitivity levels,namely high,medium and low. Based on the ‘risk perception-preference-behavior'conceptual framework,we designed Likert scale to measure smog risk perception,risk preference and green investment willingness. For high and medium sensitivity areas,the structural equation model is constructed according to the three latent variables,and low sensitivity areas are treated as a control group. In total,517 valid questionnaires were collected and we used the software SPSS and AMOS to fit model. It is concluded that although there is no direct correlation between risk preference and green investment willingness,under the interacting effect of smog risk perception and risk preference,public green investment willingness is positively related to smog risk perception. In the comparative analysis,investors in different areas possess equal enthusiasm for green investment. For green finance policy making,investors are expecting a higher environmental information disclosure level,are willing to accept products for smog management despite lower benefits by 1%,and are attaching higher value to stocks of environmental character. The results give much inspiration to green finance development. For one thing,the government and relevant institutions that issue green financial products should improve the environmental information disclosure level of the underlying assets as well as the actual weather condition nationwide,strengthen supervision and encourage investors to participate in green investment. For another,given that green investment willingness has no significant differences across the whole nation,the government can support qualified enterprises to issue green bonds and green stocks in a coordinated way,and the financial institutions can launch financial products related to green bonds and stocks to not only provide financial support for environmental protection projects,but also to enrich green investment market,consequently public investors would have the opportunity to participate in the green investment.
Chinese air quality is currently inadequate,influencing our daily life. The government has launched countless smog governance policies,meanwhile,a series of green financial products like green bonds and green funds have emerged. As government together with enterprises is supporting and developing green programs,public investors are not so into it,and therefore the research of the impact on public green investment behavior exerted by smog risk has great policy significance. This paper considers both air quality and policy strength,and classifies provincial areas into three sensitivity levels,namely high,medium and low. Based on the ‘risk perception-preference-behavior'conceptual framework,we designed Likert scale to measure smog risk perception,risk preference and green investment willingness. For high and medium sensitivity areas,the structural equation model is constructed according to the three latent variables,and low sensitivity areas are treated as a control group. In total,517 valid questionnaires were collected and we used the software SPSS and AMOS to fit model. It is concluded that although there is no direct correlation between risk preference and green investment willingness,under the interacting effect of smog risk perception and risk preference,public green investment willingness is positively related to smog risk perception. In the comparative analysis,investors in different areas possess equal enthusiasm for green investment. For green finance policy making,investors are expecting a higher environmental information disclosure level,are willing to accept products for smog management despite lower benefits by 1%,and are attaching higher value to stocks of environmental character. The results give much inspiration to green finance development. For one thing,the government and relevant institutions that issue green financial products should improve the environmental information disclosure level of the underlying assets as well as the actual weather condition nationwide,strengthen supervision and encourage investors to participate in green investment. For another,given that green investment willingness has no significant differences across the whole nation,the government can support qualified enterprises to issue green bonds and green stocks in a coordinated way,and the financial institutions can launch financial products related to green bonds and stocks to not only provide financial support for environmental protection projects,but also to enrich green investment market,consequently public investors would have the opportunity to participate in the green investment.
引文
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[23]SITKIN S,WEINGART L.Determinants of risky decision-making behavior:a test of the mediating role of risk perceptions and propensity[J].The academy of management journal,1995,38(6):1573-1592.
[24]LUSK J,COBLE K.Risk perceptions,risk preference,and acceptance of risky food[J].American journal of agricultural economics,2005,87(2):393-405.
[25]YAPICI G,GENLER O,KURT A,et al.Assessment of environmental attitudes and risk perceptions among university students in Mersin,Turkey[J].Journal of environmental and public health,2017(2):1-8.
[26]WEI J,ZHU W,MARINOVA D,et al.Household adoption of smog protective behavior:a comparison of two Chinese cities[J].Journal of risk research,2015,20:1-22.
[27]FRANKEN J,PENNINGS J,GARCIA P.Measuring the effect of risk attitude on marketing behavior[J].Agricultural economics,2014,45:525-535.
[28]STEVENS J P.Applied multivariate statistics for the social sciences[M].5th ed.New York N Y:Routledge,2009.
[29]BERNAT T,GASIOR A,KORPYSA J,et al.Perception of the risk of starting up business and personal attitude to risk[J].Transformations in business&economics,2014,13(2B(32B)):780-800.
[30]LI W,CHAN S,LAM T H.Helping cancer patients to quit smoking by understanding their risk perception,behavior,and attitudes related to smoking[J].Psycho-oncology,2015,23:870-877.
[31]LIAO J,LIU X.Risk and consumer debt behaviors in China[J].Social behavior and personality,2012,40(8):1263-1270.
[32]PENNINGS J,GARCIA P.Measuring producers’risk preferences:a global risk-attitude construct[J].American agricultural economics association,2001,83(4):993-1009.
[33]PENNINGS J,GROSSMAN D.Responding to crises and disasters:the role of risk attitudes and risk perceptions[J].Disasters,2008,32(3):434-448.
[34]ROSENBLOOM T,BEIGEL A,ELDROR E.Attitudes,behavioral intentions,and risk perceptions of fatigued pedestrians[J].Social behavior and personality,2011,39(9):1263-1270.
[35]TANG D,XU H,YANG Y.Mutual influence of energy consumption and foreign direct investment on haze pollution in China:a spatial econometric approach[J].Polish journal of environmental studies,2018,27(4):1743-1752.
[36]WORTHINGTON A.An empirical note on weather effects in the Australian stock market[J].Economic papers,2009,28(2):148-154.
[2]LI Q,PENG C H.The stock market effect of air pollution:evidence from China[J].Applied economics,2016,48(36):3442-3461.
[3]ZEREN F,GUMUS F.Testing weather effect anomalies:time varying evidence from selected stock markets[J].International journal of economic perspectives,2015,9(1):21-31.
[4]孟祥旭,李增刚.空气质量对股票投资行为影响的实证检验——以PM2.5为例[J].城市与环境研究,2017(4):79-92.
[5]LI J,PEARCE P L,MORRISON A M,et al.Up in smoke?the impact of smog on risk perception and satisfaction of international tourists in Beijing[J].International journal of tourism research,2016,18(4):373-386.
[6]蔡李晖.城市居民雾霾感知对日常游憩行为意愿的影响研究——以杭州主城区为例[D].浙江:浙江工商大学,2017.
[7]张爱平,虞虎.雾霾影响下旅京游客风险感知与不完全规避行为分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(6):1148-1159.
[8]唐魁玉,唐金杰.雾霾生态污染的社会风险研究[J].齐齐哈尔大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015(7):1-4.
[9]KIM Y,NG C,CHUNG Y,et al.Air pollution and suicide in 10cities in northeast Asia:a time-stratified case-crossover analysis[J].Environmental health perspectives,2018,126(3):037002.
[10]WEBER E,BLAIS A,BETZ N E.A domain-specific risk-attitude scale:measuring risk perceptions and risk behaviors[J].Journal of behavioral decision making,2002,15:263-290.
[11]PENNINGS J,WANSINK B,MEULENBERG M.A note on modeling consumer reactions to a crisis:the case of the mad cow disease[J].International journal of research in marketing,2002,19:91-100.
[12]YANG J,GODDARD E.Canadian consumer responses to BSE with heterogeneous risk perceptions and risk attitudes[J].Canadian journal of agricultural economics,2011,59:493-518.
[13]李聪颖,黄一哲,李敢,等.雾霾天气对出行行为的影响机理研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2015,47(5):728-733.
[14]徐戈,冯项楠,李宜威,等.雾霾感知风险与公众应对行为的实证分析[J].管理科学学报,2017,20(9):1-14.
[15]LINDELL M K,PERRY R W.Behavioral foundations of community emergency planning[M].Washington D C:Hemisphere Publishing Corp,1992.
[16]CLARK C F,KOTCHEN M J MOORE M R.Internal and external influences on pro-environmental behavior:participation in a green electricity program[J].Journal of environmental psychology,2003,23(3):237-246.
[17]CHENG P,WEI J,MARINOVA D,et al.Adoption of protective behaviours:residents response to city smog in Hefei,China[J].Journal of contingencies and crisis management,2017,25(4):244-255.
[18]DE Z F,BRUNEKREEF B,TIMMERMANS E,et al.Air pollution and performance-based physical functioning in Dutch older adults[J].Environmental health perspectives,2018,126(1):017009.
[19]林玥希,陈彦翔,张廷玉,等.脆弱性人群对雾霾的认知与应对——基于福州市的调查分析[J].福建师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,32(5):72-79.
[20]EYRAUD L,WANE A,ZHANG C,等.绿色投资的发展趋势和决定因素[J].金融发展评论,2012(5):139-152.
[21]GUMUS F,DAYIOGLU Y.An analysis on the socio-economic and demographic factors that have an effect on the risk taking preferences of personal investors[J].International journal of economics and financial issues,2015,5(1):136-147.
[22]WEBER E,MILLIMAN R.Perceived risk attitudes:relating risk perception to risky choice[J].Management science,1997,43(2):123-144.
[23]SITKIN S,WEINGART L.Determinants of risky decision-making behavior:a test of the mediating role of risk perceptions and propensity[J].The academy of management journal,1995,38(6):1573-1592.
[24]LUSK J,COBLE K.Risk perceptions,risk preference,and acceptance of risky food[J].American journal of agricultural economics,2005,87(2):393-405.
[25]YAPICI G,GENLER O,KURT A,et al.Assessment of environmental attitudes and risk perceptions among university students in Mersin,Turkey[J].Journal of environmental and public health,2017(2):1-8.
[26]WEI J,ZHU W,MARINOVA D,et al.Household adoption of smog protective behavior:a comparison of two Chinese cities[J].Journal of risk research,2015,20:1-22.
[27]FRANKEN J,PENNINGS J,GARCIA P.Measuring the effect of risk attitude on marketing behavior[J].Agricultural economics,2014,45:525-535.
[28]STEVENS J P.Applied multivariate statistics for the social sciences[M].5th ed.New York N Y:Routledge,2009.
[29]BERNAT T,GASIOR A,KORPYSA J,et al.Perception of the risk of starting up business and personal attitude to risk[J].Transformations in business&economics,2014,13(2B(32B)):780-800.
[30]LI W,CHAN S,LAM T H.Helping cancer patients to quit smoking by understanding their risk perception,behavior,and attitudes related to smoking[J].Psycho-oncology,2015,23:870-877.
[31]LIAO J,LIU X.Risk and consumer debt behaviors in China[J].Social behavior and personality,2012,40(8):1263-1270.
[32]PENNINGS J,GARCIA P.Measuring producers’risk preferences:a global risk-attitude construct[J].American agricultural economics association,2001,83(4):993-1009.
[33]PENNINGS J,GROSSMAN D.Responding to crises and disasters:the role of risk attitudes and risk perceptions[J].Disasters,2008,32(3):434-448.
[34]ROSENBLOOM T,BEIGEL A,ELDROR E.Attitudes,behavioral intentions,and risk perceptions of fatigued pedestrians[J].Social behavior and personality,2011,39(9):1263-1270.
[35]TANG D,XU H,YANG Y.Mutual influence of energy consumption and foreign direct investment on haze pollution in China:a spatial econometric approach[J].Polish journal of environmental studies,2018,27(4):1743-1752.
[36]WORTHINGTON A.An empirical note on weather effects in the Australian stock market[J].Economic papers,2009,28(2):148-154.
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