地震诱发滑坡的快速评估方法研究:以2017年M_S 7.0级九寨沟地震为例
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摘要
山岳地区强烈地震诱发的滑坡、崩塌等地震次生灾害在造成严重人员伤亡的同时,对社会经济的发展也构成了严重威胁。而震后滑坡分布的快速评估,尤其是滑坡重灾区的确定,则可为救援工作的科学部署和有效开展提供决策支持并减轻地震灾害的损失。2017年8月8日发生于四川省阿坝州九寨沟风景区的M_S7.0级地震诱发了大量的滑坡、崩塌灾害,造成了一定的人员伤亡和财产损失,凸显出进行震后滑坡快速评估的重要性。本文通过对九寨沟地震灾区震前、震后"北京二号"遥感影像的对比分析,解译此次地震诱发的滑坡分布概况。尽管震后影像在局部区域有云团覆盖,影响了震区滑坡解译的详尽程度,但是对于主要发生的滑坡地震高烈度地区(≥Ⅻ度),本文所用影像基本满足解译要求。本文共解译出194个面积大于700m~2的滑坡,这些滑坡主要沿地震烈度长轴方向分布,灾害体平面面积达5.6km~2,影响范围超过600km~2。通过对九寨沟地震灾区的地形、岩性及地震动加速度进行分析,本文采用Newmark刚体滑块模型对该区震后滑坡危险区域进行了预测。预测结果按照危险程度不同划分为5个级别,即高度危险、较高危险、中度危险、较低危险和低度危险。滑坡分布与评估结果呈现出较好的一致性:解译的滑坡主要分布在评估为滑坡高度危险的区域,表明本文所采用方法的有效性。本文对该方法的局限性也进行了讨论,并提出改进建议。
Landslides triggered by strong earthquakes in mountainous areas can cause severe casualties and also pose threats to socio-economic development in the affected region.Therefore,an effective evaluation model,not only for a quick assessment of landslide distribution,but also for identification of most hazardous areas,is needed to provide critical assistance in the deployment and execution of rescue efforts.On August8,2017,aM_S7.0 earthquake struck Jiuzhaigou County,Aba Prefecture,Sichuan Province.The earthquake triggered massive landslides causing casualties and property loss.After this event,we quickly analyzed the pre-and post-earthquake remote sensing images(produced by the Beijing No.2 satellite)in the affected region and interpreted the landslide distribution.Although,in some areas,the post-seismic images were unable to provide detailed interpretation of landslide due to cloud coverage,they met the primary requirements for landslide interpretation at locations of high seismic intensity where landslides mainly occurred.In total,we interpreted 194 landslides with individual area >700 m~2.These landslides were mainly distributed along the long axis of seismic intensity,with an accumulative disaster area of 5.6 km~2 and impact range exceeding 600 km~2.Based on topography and lithology analyses of affected region,as well as peak ground acceleration data,we used the Newmark rigid block model to predict the landslide hazardous area after the earthquake.The prediction results were divided into five levels according to degree of potential danger,i.e.high,moderately high,moderate,low and very low.Comparison study shows that the predicted landslide hazard zones agreed with the actual distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides that interpreted landslides mainly distributed in areas evaluated as high danger zone,validating the effectiveness of using the Newmark rigid block model to quickly evaluate earthquake-triggered landslides.In addition,we also discussed limitations and made suggestions for future improvement in the model.
Landslides triggered by strong earthquakes in mountainous areas can cause severe casualties and also pose threats to socio-economic development in the affected region.Therefore,an effective evaluation model,not only for a quick assessment of landslide distribution,but also for identification of most hazardous areas,is needed to provide critical assistance in the deployment and execution of rescue efforts.On August8,2017,aM_S7.0 earthquake struck Jiuzhaigou County,Aba Prefecture,Sichuan Province.The earthquake triggered massive landslides causing casualties and property loss.After this event,we quickly analyzed the pre-and post-earthquake remote sensing images(produced by the Beijing No.2 satellite)in the affected region and interpreted the landslide distribution.Although,in some areas,the post-seismic images were unable to provide detailed interpretation of landslide due to cloud coverage,they met the primary requirements for landslide interpretation at locations of high seismic intensity where landslides mainly occurred.In total,we interpreted 194 landslides with individual area >700 m~2.These landslides were mainly distributed along the long axis of seismic intensity,with an accumulative disaster area of 5.6 km~2 and impact range exceeding 600 km~2.Based on topography and lithology analyses of affected region,as well as peak ground acceleration data,we used the Newmark rigid block model to predict the landslide hazardous area after the earthquake.The prediction results were divided into five levels according to degree of potential danger,i.e.high,moderately high,moderate,low and very low.Comparison study shows that the predicted landslide hazard zones agreed with the actual distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides that interpreted landslides mainly distributed in areas evaluated as high danger zone,validating the effectiveness of using the Newmark rigid block model to quickly evaluate earthquake-triggered landslides.In addition,we also discussed limitations and made suggestions for future improvement in the model.
引文
[1]黄润秋,李为乐.“5·12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.
[2]王运生,罗永红,吉峰,等.汶川大地震山地灾害发育的控制因素分析[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(6):759-763.
[3]殷跃平.汶川八级地震地质灾害研究[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(4):433-444.
[4]祁生文,许强,刘春玲,等.汶川地震极重灾区地质背景及次生斜坡灾害空间发育规律[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):39-49.
[5]DAI F C,XU C,YAO X,et al.Spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,China[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2010,40:883-895.
[6]许强,李为乐.汶川地震诱发大型滑坡分布规律研究[J].工程地质学报,2010,18(6):818-826.
[7]许冲,肖建章.2013年芦山地震滑坡空间分布分析:以太平镇东北方向的一个典型矩形区域为例[J].地震地质,2013,35(2):436-451.
[8]陈晓清,崔鹏,游勇,等.4·20芦山地震次生山地灾害与减灾对策[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):29-34.
[9]CHEN X L,ZHOU Q,RAN H L,et al.Earthquake-triggered landslides in Southwest China[J].Natural Hazards&Earth System Sciences,2012,12:351-363.
[10]CHEN X L,ZHOU Q,LIU CG.Distribution pattern of coseismic landslides triggered by the 2014Ludian,Yunnan,China MW6.1earthquake:special controlling conditions of local topography[J].Landslides,2015,12(6):1159-1168.
[11]戴岚欣,许强,范宣梅,等.2017年8月8日四川九寨沟地震诱发地质灾害空间分布规律及易发性评价初步研究[J].工程地质学报,2017,25(4):1151-1164.
[12]王涛,吴树仁,石菊松,等.地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(1):93-104.
[13]GALLEN S F,CLARK M K,GODT J W,et al.Application and evaluation of a rapid response earthquake-triggered landslide model to the 25April 2015 MW7.8Gorkha earthquake,Nepal[J].Tectonophysics,2016.DOI:10.1016/j.tecto.2016.10.031.
[14]XU C,XU,X W,YAO Q,et al.GIS-based bivariate statistical modeling for earthquake-triggered landslides susceptibility mapping related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,China[J].Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology,2013.DOI:10.1144/qjegh2012-006.
[15]KEEFER D K.Landslides caused by earthquakes[J].Geological Society of America Bulletin,1984,95:406-421.
[16]RODRI'GUEZ C E,BOMMERB J J,CHANDLERB R J.Earthquake-induced landslides:1980-1997[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,1999,18:325-346.
[17]BOMMER J J,CARLOS E,RODR'IGUEZ C R.Earthquake-induced landslides in Central,America[J].Engineering Geology,2002,63:189-220.
[18]KEEFER D K.Investigating landslides caused by earthquake:a historical review[J].Surveys in Geophysics,2002,23:473-510.
[19]JIBSON R W,HARP E L.Extraordinary distance limits of landslides triggered by the 2011 Mineral,Virginia,earthquake[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2012,102(6):2368-2377.
[20]KARGEL J S,LEONARD G J,SHUGAR D H,et al.Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal's2015Gorkha earthquake[J].Science,2016,351:aac8353.
[21]NEWMARK N M.Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments[J].Geotechnique,1965,15:139-160.
[22]中国地震局.2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震[EB/OL].(2017-08-10)[2017-11-01].http:∥www.cea.gov.cn/publish/dizhenj/468/553/101710/index.html.
[23]邓起东,程绍平,马冀,等.青藏高原地震活动特征及当前地震活动形势[J].地球物理学报,2014,57(7):2025-2042.
[24]徐锡伟,陈桂华,王启欣,等.九寨沟地震发震断层属性及青藏高原东南缘现今应变状态讨论[J].地球物理学报,2017,60(10):4018-4026.
[25]付俊东,任金卫,张军龙,等.东昆仑断裂带东段塔藏断裂晚第四纪古地震研究[J].第四纪研究,2012,32(3):473-483.
[26]赵小麟,邓起东,陈社发.龙门山逆断裂带中段的构造地貌学研究[J].地震地质,1994,6(4):422-428.
[27]钱洪,马声浩,龚宇.关于岷江断裂若干问题的讨论[J].中国地震,1995,11(2):142-146.
[28]JIBSON R W,HARP E L,SCHULZ W,et al.Landslides triggered by the 2002 M-7.9 Denali Fault,Alaska,earthquake and the inferred nature of the strong shaking[J].Earthquake Spectra,2004,20:669-691.
[29]XU C,XU X,YU G.Landslides triggered by slippingfault-generated earthquake on a plateau:an example of the14 April 2010,MS 7.1,Yushu,China earthquake[J].Landslides,2013,10(4):421-431.
[30]JIBSON R W,HARP E L,MICHAEL J A.A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58:271-289.
[31]国家技术监督局,中华人民共和国建设部.工程岩体分级标准GB 50218-94[S].
[32]DREYFUS D,RATHJE E M,JIBSON R W.The influence of different simplified sliding-block models and input parameters on regional predictions of seismic landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake[J].Engineering Geology,2013,163:41-54.
[33]中国地震局工程力学研究所.2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震强震动观测简报[EB/OL].(2017-08-10)[2018-01-12].http:∥www.iem.ac.cn/detail.html?id=880.
[2]王运生,罗永红,吉峰,等.汶川大地震山地灾害发育的控制因素分析[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(6):759-763.
[3]殷跃平.汶川八级地震地质灾害研究[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(4):433-444.
[4]祁生文,许强,刘春玲,等.汶川地震极重灾区地质背景及次生斜坡灾害空间发育规律[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):39-49.
[5]DAI F C,XU C,YAO X,et al.Spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,China[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2010,40:883-895.
[6]许强,李为乐.汶川地震诱发大型滑坡分布规律研究[J].工程地质学报,2010,18(6):818-826.
[7]许冲,肖建章.2013年芦山地震滑坡空间分布分析:以太平镇东北方向的一个典型矩形区域为例[J].地震地质,2013,35(2):436-451.
[8]陈晓清,崔鹏,游勇,等.4·20芦山地震次生山地灾害与减灾对策[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):29-34.
[9]CHEN X L,ZHOU Q,RAN H L,et al.Earthquake-triggered landslides in Southwest China[J].Natural Hazards&Earth System Sciences,2012,12:351-363.
[10]CHEN X L,ZHOU Q,LIU CG.Distribution pattern of coseismic landslides triggered by the 2014Ludian,Yunnan,China MW6.1earthquake:special controlling conditions of local topography[J].Landslides,2015,12(6):1159-1168.
[11]戴岚欣,许强,范宣梅,等.2017年8月8日四川九寨沟地震诱发地质灾害空间分布规律及易发性评价初步研究[J].工程地质学报,2017,25(4):1151-1164.
[12]王涛,吴树仁,石菊松,等.地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(1):93-104.
[13]GALLEN S F,CLARK M K,GODT J W,et al.Application and evaluation of a rapid response earthquake-triggered landslide model to the 25April 2015 MW7.8Gorkha earthquake,Nepal[J].Tectonophysics,2016.DOI:10.1016/j.tecto.2016.10.031.
[14]XU C,XU,X W,YAO Q,et al.GIS-based bivariate statistical modeling for earthquake-triggered landslides susceptibility mapping related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,China[J].Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology,2013.DOI:10.1144/qjegh2012-006.
[15]KEEFER D K.Landslides caused by earthquakes[J].Geological Society of America Bulletin,1984,95:406-421.
[16]RODRI'GUEZ C E,BOMMERB J J,CHANDLERB R J.Earthquake-induced landslides:1980-1997[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,1999,18:325-346.
[17]BOMMER J J,CARLOS E,RODR'IGUEZ C R.Earthquake-induced landslides in Central,America[J].Engineering Geology,2002,63:189-220.
[18]KEEFER D K.Investigating landslides caused by earthquake:a historical review[J].Surveys in Geophysics,2002,23:473-510.
[19]JIBSON R W,HARP E L.Extraordinary distance limits of landslides triggered by the 2011 Mineral,Virginia,earthquake[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2012,102(6):2368-2377.
[20]KARGEL J S,LEONARD G J,SHUGAR D H,et al.Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal's2015Gorkha earthquake[J].Science,2016,351:aac8353.
[21]NEWMARK N M.Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments[J].Geotechnique,1965,15:139-160.
[22]中国地震局.2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震[EB/OL].(2017-08-10)[2017-11-01].http:∥www.cea.gov.cn/publish/dizhenj/468/553/101710/index.html.
[23]邓起东,程绍平,马冀,等.青藏高原地震活动特征及当前地震活动形势[J].地球物理学报,2014,57(7):2025-2042.
[24]徐锡伟,陈桂华,王启欣,等.九寨沟地震发震断层属性及青藏高原东南缘现今应变状态讨论[J].地球物理学报,2017,60(10):4018-4026.
[25]付俊东,任金卫,张军龙,等.东昆仑断裂带东段塔藏断裂晚第四纪古地震研究[J].第四纪研究,2012,32(3):473-483.
[26]赵小麟,邓起东,陈社发.龙门山逆断裂带中段的构造地貌学研究[J].地震地质,1994,6(4):422-428.
[27]钱洪,马声浩,龚宇.关于岷江断裂若干问题的讨论[J].中国地震,1995,11(2):142-146.
[28]JIBSON R W,HARP E L,SCHULZ W,et al.Landslides triggered by the 2002 M-7.9 Denali Fault,Alaska,earthquake and the inferred nature of the strong shaking[J].Earthquake Spectra,2004,20:669-691.
[29]XU C,XU X,YU G.Landslides triggered by slippingfault-generated earthquake on a plateau:an example of the14 April 2010,MS 7.1,Yushu,China earthquake[J].Landslides,2013,10(4):421-431.
[30]JIBSON R W,HARP E L,MICHAEL J A.A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58:271-289.
[31]国家技术监督局,中华人民共和国建设部.工程岩体分级标准GB 50218-94[S].
[32]DREYFUS D,RATHJE E M,JIBSON R W.The influence of different simplified sliding-block models and input parameters on regional predictions of seismic landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake[J].Engineering Geology,2013,163:41-54.
[33]中国地震局工程力学研究所.2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震强震动观测简报[EB/OL].(2017-08-10)[2018-01-12].http:∥www.iem.ac.cn/detail.html?id=880.
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