基于改进的熵权层次分析法的中国锡资源供应安全评价研究
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摘要
锡作为我国重要的战略资源,对我国经济发展有重要影响。近年来,随着我国经济的快速发展,锡资源供不应求的问题逐渐凸显,开展锡资源供应安全评价对提高资源保障具有重要意义。本文采用2000～2017年数据从资源因素、供需因素、风险因素和可持续因素四个维度出发构建了包含十六个指标在内的中国锡资源安全评价指标体系,并采用改进的熵权层次分析法对中国锡资源供应安全进行评价。结果表明:锡资源供应安全状况在资源因素、供需因素、风险因素和可持续因素的相互作用下整体呈恶化趋势,安全等级由安全到危险。尽管可持续因素对锡资源的供应安全起积极作用,但无法弥补资源因素、供需因素、风险因素对锡资源供应安全产生的负面影响。
As an important strategic resource in China,tin plays an important role in China's economic development.In recent years,with the rapid development of China's economy,the shortage of tin resources has become increasingly prominent.It is of great significance to carry out supply safety evaluation of tin resources to improve resource security.Based on the data from 2000 to 2017,this paper establishes a Chinese tin resource safety evaluation index system including sixteen indicators from the four dimensions of resource factors,supply and demand factors,risk factors and sustainability factors,and evaluates the security of tin resources supply in China by using improved entropy weight analytic hierarchy process.The results show that the security status of tin resources supply is deteriorating in the interaction of resource factors,supply and demand factors,risk factors and sustainable factors,and the security level is from safety to danger.Although sustainable factors play apositive role in the supply security of tin resources,it cannot compensate for the negative impact of resource factors,supply and demand factors and risk factors on the supply security of tin resources.
As an important strategic resource in China,tin plays an important role in China's economic development.In recent years,with the rapid development of China's economy,the shortage of tin resources has become increasingly prominent.It is of great significance to carry out supply safety evaluation of tin resources to improve resource security.Based on the data from 2000 to 2017,this paper establishes a Chinese tin resource safety evaluation index system including sixteen indicators from the four dimensions of resource factors,supply and demand factors,risk factors and sustainability factors,and evaluates the security of tin resources supply in China by using improved entropy weight analytic hierarchy process.The results show that the security status of tin resources supply is deteriorating in the interaction of resource factors,supply and demand factors,risk factors and sustainable factors,and the security level is from safety to danger.Although sustainable factors play apositive role in the supply security of tin resources,it cannot compensate for the negative impact of resource factors,supply and demand factors and risk factors on the supply security of tin resources.
引文
[1]张福良，殷腾飞，周楠．全球锡矿资源开发利用现状及思考[J]．现代矿业，2014,30(2):1-4,10.ZHANG Fuliang,YIN Tengfei,ZHOU Nan.Current situation and consideration on the exploitation and utilization of tin resources in the world[J].Modern Mining Industry,2014,30(2):1-4,10．
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[3]全球矿产资源战略研究中心．16种战略性矿产供需格局与对策研究[R].2019．
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[8]窦迅，李扬，高赐威，等．基于模糊综合评价的电煤供应安全预警机制[J]．电力系统自动化，2011,35(1):29-33,76.DOU Xun,LI Yang,GAO Ciwei,et al.Early warning mechanism of electric coal supply safety based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Power System Automation,2011,35(1):29-33,76．
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[10]刘贤信．基于SPSS的我国铁矿石供应安全评价[J]．金属矿山，2010(10):34-37.LIU Xianxin.Safety evaluation of iron ore supply in china based on SPSS[J].Metal Mine,2010(10):34-37．
[11]黄晓兵．中国钴资源安全评估[D]．北京：中国地质大学（北京），2018．
[12]林志峰．我国镍资源安全及国际化战略研究[D]．昆明：昆明理工大学，2018．
[13]张佳东，张艳飞，余倩，等．基于层次分析法的中国镍资源安全评价[J]．中国矿业，2013,22(9):38-41.ZHANG Jiadong,ZHANG Yanfei,YU Qian,et al.Safety assessment of nickel resources in China based on analytic hierarchy process[J].China Mining Industry,2013,22(9):38-41．
[14]林丰．中国铟矿资源安全评估[D]．北京：中国地质大学（北京），2017．
[15]刘璇，陈其慎，张艳飞，等．中国铬需求预测及资源供应安全态势分析[J]．资源科学，2015,37(5):933-943.LIU Xuan,CHEN Qishen,ZHANG Yanfei,et al.China chromium demand forecast and resource supply security situation analysis[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):933-943．
[16]姚延丰．应用GIS辅助分析的国家石油供应安全评价研究[D]．天津：天津大学，2011．
[17]何贤杰，吴初国，刘增洁，等．石油安全指标体系与综合评价[J]．自然资源学报，2006,21(2):245-251.HE Xianjie,WU Chuguo,LIU Zengjie,et al.Oil safety index system and comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2006,21(2):245-251．
[18]王晓宇．中国天然气供应安全评价及对策[J]．中国石油大学学报：社会科学版，2015,31(1):6-10.WANG Xiaoyu.Safety evaluation and countermeasure of natural gas supply in China[J].Journal of China University of Petroleum:Social Science Edition,2015,31(1):6-10．
[19]DALAL J,MOHAPATRA P K J,CHANDRA MITRA G.Prioritization of rural roads:AHP in group decision[J].Engineering,Construction and Architectural Management,2010,17(2):135-158．
[20]张永安，郭蒲高．一种改进的多目标决策指标权重计算方法[J]．西安电子科技大学学报：自然科学版，2014,41(6):118-125.ZHANG Yongan,GUO Pugao.Improved method on weights determination of indexes in multi-objective decision making[J].Journal of Xian University of Electronic Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2014,41(6):118-125．
[21]杨德平，刘喜华．经济预测与决策技术及MATLAB实现[M].2016:256．
[22]卢富然，陈建宏．基于AHP和熵权TOPSIS模型的岩爆预测方法[J]．黄金科学技术，2018,26(3):365-371.LU Furan,CHEN Jianhong.Rockburst prediction method based on AHP and entropy weight TOPSIS model[J].Gold Science and Technology,2018,26(3):365-371．
[23]李婷，王秋平．基于熵权和改进的层次分析法的总图设计方案评价[J]．兰州理工大学学报，2012,38(2):120-123.LI Ting,WANG Qiuping.Scheme evaluation of general layout design based on entropy weight and improved analytic hierarchy process method[J].Journal of Lanzhou University of Technology,2012,38(2):120-123.
(1)《有色金属工业统计年鉴》缺少2000年和2001年利润和收入数据，用有色金属行业利润率代替。
(1)由于对外依存度计算公式有差异，因此造成本文的计算结果与引言中的引用有所出入。
[2]有色金属矿产地质调查中心，中国地质调查局全球矿产资源战略研究中心．全球锡资源供需形势分析报告[R].2016．
[3]全球矿产资源战略研究中心．16种战略性矿产供需格局与对策研究[R].2019．
[4]吴新春．中国铁矿石资源供应安全研究[D]．武汉：武汉理工大学，2011．
[5]L?SCHEL A,MOSLENER U,RBBELKE D T G.Indicators of energy security in industrialised countries[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(4):1665-1671．
[6]WANG C,ZUO L S,HU P J,et al.Evaluation and simulation analysis of Chinas copper security evolution trajectory[J].Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China,2013,23(8):2465-2474．
[7]ZHOU Y J,LI J W,WANG G S,et al.Assessing the short-to medium-term supply risks of clean energy minerals for China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2019,215:217-225．
[8]窦迅，李扬，高赐威，等．基于模糊综合评价的电煤供应安全预警机制[J]．电力系统自动化，2011,35(1):29-33,76.DOU Xun,LI Yang,GAO Ciwei,et al.Early warning mechanism of electric coal supply safety based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Power System Automation,2011,35(1):29-33,76．
[9]朱春华．我国矿产资源供应风险评价研究-以铁矿资源为例[D]．北京：中国地质大学（北京），2018．
[10]刘贤信．基于SPSS的我国铁矿石供应安全评价[J]．金属矿山，2010(10):34-37.LIU Xianxin.Safety evaluation of iron ore supply in china based on SPSS[J].Metal Mine,2010(10):34-37．
[11]黄晓兵．中国钴资源安全评估[D]．北京：中国地质大学（北京），2018．
[12]林志峰．我国镍资源安全及国际化战略研究[D]．昆明：昆明理工大学，2018．
[13]张佳东，张艳飞，余倩，等．基于层次分析法的中国镍资源安全评价[J]．中国矿业，2013,22(9):38-41.ZHANG Jiadong,ZHANG Yanfei,YU Qian,et al.Safety assessment of nickel resources in China based on analytic hierarchy process[J].China Mining Industry,2013,22(9):38-41．
[14]林丰．中国铟矿资源安全评估[D]．北京：中国地质大学（北京），2017．
[15]刘璇，陈其慎，张艳飞，等．中国铬需求预测及资源供应安全态势分析[J]．资源科学，2015,37(5):933-943.LIU Xuan,CHEN Qishen,ZHANG Yanfei,et al.China chromium demand forecast and resource supply security situation analysis[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):933-943．
[16]姚延丰．应用GIS辅助分析的国家石油供应安全评价研究[D]．天津：天津大学，2011．
[17]何贤杰，吴初国，刘增洁，等．石油安全指标体系与综合评价[J]．自然资源学报，2006,21(2):245-251.HE Xianjie,WU Chuguo,LIU Zengjie,et al.Oil safety index system and comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2006,21(2):245-251．
[18]王晓宇．中国天然气供应安全评价及对策[J]．中国石油大学学报：社会科学版，2015,31(1):6-10.WANG Xiaoyu.Safety evaluation and countermeasure of natural gas supply in China[J].Journal of China University of Petroleum:Social Science Edition,2015,31(1):6-10．
[19]DALAL J,MOHAPATRA P K J,CHANDRA MITRA G.Prioritization of rural roads:AHP in group decision[J].Engineering,Construction and Architectural Management,2010,17(2):135-158．
[20]张永安，郭蒲高．一种改进的多目标决策指标权重计算方法[J]．西安电子科技大学学报：自然科学版，2014,41(6):118-125.ZHANG Yongan,GUO Pugao.Improved method on weights determination of indexes in multi-objective decision making[J].Journal of Xian University of Electronic Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2014,41(6):118-125．
[21]杨德平，刘喜华．经济预测与决策技术及MATLAB实现[M].2016:256．
[22]卢富然，陈建宏．基于AHP和熵权TOPSIS模型的岩爆预测方法[J]．黄金科学技术，2018,26(3):365-371.LU Furan,CHEN Jianhong.Rockburst prediction method based on AHP and entropy weight TOPSIS model[J].Gold Science and Technology,2018,26(3):365-371．
[23]李婷，王秋平．基于熵权和改进的层次分析法的总图设计方案评价[J]．兰州理工大学学报，2012,38(2):120-123.LI Ting,WANG Qiuping.Scheme evaluation of general layout design based on entropy weight and improved analytic hierarchy process method[J].Journal of Lanzhou University of Technology,2012,38(2):120-123.
(1)《有色金属工业统计年鉴》缺少2000年和2001年利润和收入数据，用有色金属行业利润率代替。
(1)由于对外依存度计算公式有差异，因此造成本文的计算结果与引言中的引用有所出入。
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