资源产业空间集聚、传导要素萃取与“资源诅咒”中介效应研究
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摘要
针对"资源诅咒"测度中存在的问题,对其进行再剖析,找出学术界对"资源诅咒"的质疑以及质疑中仍未解决的问题,即"资源诅咒"分析中指标选取的科学性问题。通过研究发现,产业空间集聚度可以更好地替代产业依赖度作为自然资源丰裕的测度指标,在此基础上选取我国油气资源城市作为研究对象,构建基于产业空间集聚度的区域经济增长计量模型,进行实证分析与假说检验,并萃取显著传导要素,分析其对产业空间集聚与区域经济增长关系的传导作用。借鉴B-K中介效应分析方法,构建"资源诅咒"传导机理的中介效应模型,进一步明确"资源诅咒"的测度指标与传导要素变量的具体关系,挖掘油气资源城市"资源诅咒"的传导机制,绘制"资源诅咒"传导机制模型。结果显示:资源产业空间集聚对于区域经济增长存在倒U型曲线关系;而物质资本投资和制造业发展对于上述"促进"关系存在遏抑作用;技术创新投入、人力资本水平和居民储蓄能力对于上述"抑制"关系存在缓释作用;在"资源诅咒"效应的抑制方面,应该着重发挥技术创新、人力资本投资以及居民储蓄能力等要素的调节作用。
The relationship between resource abundance and economic growth is important to researchers and policy makers as it plays a great role in national and regional economic development and the improvement of residents' welfare level.The resource curse is an economic hypothesis for the relationship between resource abundance and economic growth which shows that the relationship is not as simple as imagined.Therefore,the measurement and transmission analysis for the resource curse is particularly important.In recent years,the test of resource curse's existence and endogeneity problem for intermediary variant have been solved.However,the scientificity of index selection and the simplicity of intermediary model do not have a lasting settlement.Aimed at the scientific problem of natural resources index selection in resource curse study,the spatial agglomeration of resource industry is used instead of the abundance of natural resources and the dependence of resource industry as explanatory variable for the natural resource abundance in this paper.Meanwhile,the mediating effect model of resource curse is proposed based on B-K mediation analysis.Through above analysis,the calculation formula is constructed suitable for measuring the spatial agglomeration of resource industry by the gini coefficient of Krugman.Based on the panel data of 10 typical oil and gas resource cities during 1998-2013,the spatial agglomeration degree of resource industry is analyzed.From the results of data analysis,only Nanyang City is no longer rich in oil and gas resources due tourban development transformation,which fits with the facts.A static panel regression model based on OLS as well as a dynamic panel regression model based on DIF-GMM are established for empirical testing and analysis,in order to extract the transmission elements.Through the measurement,it shows the significant mediator variables which are used as the independent variables in the mediator effect model.Then intermediary model of resource curse is constructed as to further clarify the specific relationship between the variables index and transmission elements of resource curse with reference to the analysis method of B-K mediator effect.Based on above analysis,the transmission mechanism of resource curse of oil and gas resource cities are explored and the model of resource curse transmission mechanism is drawn.The results show that in the whole estimation model,the coefficient signs of spatial agglomeration of resource industrial are significantly negative correlated at the level of 0.05.It indicates that the regional economic growth is inversely related to the spatial agglomeration of resource industry,which is in accordance with the basic assumption of resource curse.In the step estimation model,the regional economic growth is positively correlated with the increase of household savings,human capital investment,and the development of manufacturing industry,which accords with logical relation of classical economic growth theory;the material capital investment and regional economic growth is negatively related which is due to the fact that the local economic subject has less intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption.The direct gain of economic growth from physical capital investment is less than the negative effect that of human capital accumulation,and thus hinders the regional economic growth.The higher degree of government intervention,the lower economic growth.In addition to the relationship between government intervention and economic growth,the rest of the relationships are confirmed in the mediator effect model.This shows that government intervention itself impedes some aspect of economic growth.According to the results,it is suggested that we need to strengthen the economic guiding mechanism which mainly relies on the market regulation while government regulation subsidiary to further enhance the spatial agglomeration degree of resource industry,improve the staff quality matched to the technology development and raise the efficiency of production and utilization of natural resources gradually,so as to accelerate the transformation of the regional economy and to promote the sustainable development of economy.Different from most other literatures,the spatial agglomeration of resource industry is used in this paper as the index of abundance of resource industry which enriches the empirical study on the econometric modelling.It is alsoa valuable endeavor to excavate the relationship of resource abundance and economic growth by the effect of mediating variables.
The relationship between resource abundance and economic growth is important to researchers and policy makers as it plays a great role in national and regional economic development and the improvement of residents' welfare level.The resource curse is an economic hypothesis for the relationship between resource abundance and economic growth which shows that the relationship is not as simple as imagined.Therefore,the measurement and transmission analysis for the resource curse is particularly important.In recent years,the test of resource curse's existence and endogeneity problem for intermediary variant have been solved.However,the scientificity of index selection and the simplicity of intermediary model do not have a lasting settlement.Aimed at the scientific problem of natural resources index selection in resource curse study,the spatial agglomeration of resource industry is used instead of the abundance of natural resources and the dependence of resource industry as explanatory variable for the natural resource abundance in this paper.Meanwhile,the mediating effect model of resource curse is proposed based on B-K mediation analysis.Through above analysis,the calculation formula is constructed suitable for measuring the spatial agglomeration of resource industry by the gini coefficient of Krugman.Based on the panel data of 10 typical oil and gas resource cities during 1998-2013,the spatial agglomeration degree of resource industry is analyzed.From the results of data analysis,only Nanyang City is no longer rich in oil and gas resources due tourban development transformation,which fits with the facts.A static panel regression model based on OLS as well as a dynamic panel regression model based on DIF-GMM are established for empirical testing and analysis,in order to extract the transmission elements.Through the measurement,it shows the significant mediator variables which are used as the independent variables in the mediator effect model.Then intermediary model of resource curse is constructed as to further clarify the specific relationship between the variables index and transmission elements of resource curse with reference to the analysis method of B-K mediator effect.Based on above analysis,the transmission mechanism of resource curse of oil and gas resource cities are explored and the model of resource curse transmission mechanism is drawn.The results show that in the whole estimation model,the coefficient signs of spatial agglomeration of resource industrial are significantly negative correlated at the level of 0.05.It indicates that the regional economic growth is inversely related to the spatial agglomeration of resource industry,which is in accordance with the basic assumption of resource curse.In the step estimation model,the regional economic growth is positively correlated with the increase of household savings,human capital investment,and the development of manufacturing industry,which accords with logical relation of classical economic growth theory;the material capital investment and regional economic growth is negatively related which is due to the fact that the local economic subject has less intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption.The direct gain of economic growth from physical capital investment is less than the negative effect that of human capital accumulation,and thus hinders the regional economic growth.The higher degree of government intervention,the lower economic growth.In addition to the relationship between government intervention and economic growth,the rest of the relationships are confirmed in the mediator effect model.This shows that government intervention itself impedes some aspect of economic growth.According to the results,it is suggested that we need to strengthen the economic guiding mechanism which mainly relies on the market regulation while government regulation subsidiary to further enhance the spatial agglomeration degree of resource industry,improve the staff quality matched to the technology development and raise the efficiency of production and utilization of natural resources gradually,so as to accelerate the transformation of the regional economy and to promote the sustainable development of economy.Different from most other literatures,the spatial agglomeration of resource industry is used in this paper as the index of abundance of resource industry which enriches the empirical study on the econometric modelling.It is alsoa valuable endeavor to excavate the relationship of resource abundance and economic growth by the effect of mediating variables.
引文
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[8]徐康宁,韩剑.中国区域经济的“资源诅咒”效应:地区差距的另一种解释[J].经济学家,2005,17(6):97-103.
[9]胡援成,肖德勇.经济发展门槛与自然资源诅咒---基于我国省际层面的面板数据实证研究[J].管理世界,2007,23(4):19-23.
[10]邵帅.煤炭资源开发对中国煤炭城市经济增长的影响---基于资源诅咒学说的经验研究[J].财经研究,2010,36(3):90-101.
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[19]Butle E H,Damania R,Deacon R T.Resource intensity,institutions,and development[J].World Development,2005,33(7):1029-1044.
[20]Mehlum H,Moene K,Torvik R.Institutions and resource curse[J].The Economic Journal,2006,116(1):1-20.
[21]Alexeev M,Conrad R.The natural resource curse and economic transition[J].Economic Systems,2011,(35):445-461.
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[23]Ding Ning,Field B C.Natural resource abundance and economic growth[J].Land Economics,2005,81(4):496-502.
[24]邵帅,杨莉莉.自然资源丰裕、资源产业依赖与中国区域经济增长[J].管理世界,2010,26(9):26-4.
[25]安锦,王建伟.资源诅咒:测度修正与政策改进[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(3):91-98.
[26]Roodman D.How to do xtabond2:An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata[J].The Stata Journal,2009,9(1):86-136.
[27]魏国学,陶然,陆曦.资源诅咒与中国元素:源自135个发展中国家的证据[J].世界经济,2010,34(12):48-66.
[28]Haber S H,Menaldo V A.Do Natural resource fuel authoritarianism?A reappraisal of the resource curse[J].American Political Science Review,2011,105(1):1-26.
[29]Schaber P.Property rights and the resource curse[J].Global Governance,2011,17(2):185-196.
[30]John L H.The resource curse and oil revenues in Angola and Venezuela[J].Science and Society,2011,75(3):348-378.
[31]Juan M,Ramírez C.Has Bolivia's 2006-12gas policy been useful to combat the resource curse?[J].Resources Policy,2014,41(9):113-123.
[32]Franklin O O.Resource curse or blessing in Africa’s oil cities?Empirical evidence from Sekondi-Takoradi,West Africa[J].City,Culture and Society,2013,4(4):229-240.
[33]赵领娣,徐乐,张磊.资源产业依赖、人力资本与“资源诅咒”假说---基于资源型城市的再检验[J].地域研究与开发,2015,35(4):52-57.
[34]巩前胜,董春诗.中国油气资源产业发展:空间集聚水平及区域分布特性[J].科技管理研究,2014,34(5):136-139,143.
[35]Krugman P.Increasing returns and economic geography[J].Journal of Political Economy,1996,99(3):48-59.
[36]张在旭,薛雅伟,郝增亮,等.中国油气资源城市“资源诅咒”效应实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(10):79-86.
[37]秦敬云,陈甬军.我国经济增长率长期演变趋势研究与预测---基于2000-2010年国内省域面板数据的分析与预测[J].经济学动态,2011,51(11):18-24.
[38]薛雅伟,张在旭,李宏勋,等.资源产业空间集聚与区域经济增长:“资源诅咒”效应实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(8):25-33.
[39]范振婷,吴三忙.“资源诅咒”问题研究综述[J].资源与产业,2015,17(6):1-6.
[40]孟明,牛东晓,许晓敏.经济转型过程中资源依赖度演进路径分解模型研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(3):18-23.
[41]周喜君,郭丕斌.煤炭资源就地转化与“资源诅咒”的规避---以中国中西部8个典型省区为例[J].资源科学,2015,37(2):318-324.
[42]张攀,吴建楠.政府干预、资源诅咒与区域创新---基于中国大陆省级面板数据的实证研究[J].科研管理,2017,38(1):62-69.
[2]Gylfason T,Zoega G.Natural resources,economic growth:The role of investment[J].The World Economy,2006,29(8):1091-1115.
[3]Audy R M.Natural resources,capital accumulation and the resource curse[J].Ecological Economics,2007,61(4):627-634.
[4]Steinar H.Avoiding the resource curse the case Norway[J].Energy Policy,2013,63(11):870-876.
[5]Corrigan C C.Breaking the resource curse:Transparency in the natural resource sector and the extractive industries transparency initiative[J].Resources Policy,2014,40(6):17-30.
[6]Oskenbayev Y,Yilmaz M,Abdulla K.Resource concentration,institutional quality and the natural resource curse[J].Economic Systems,2013,37(2):254-270.
[7]Anne B,Jan P,Jesper R.The resource curse and its potential reversal[J].World Development,2013,43(3):19-41.
[8]徐康宁,韩剑.中国区域经济的“资源诅咒”效应:地区差距的另一种解释[J].经济学家,2005,17(6):97-103.
[9]胡援成,肖德勇.经济发展门槛与自然资源诅咒---基于我国省际层面的面板数据实证研究[J].管理世界,2007,23(4):19-23.
[10]邵帅.煤炭资源开发对中国煤炭城市经济增长的影响---基于资源诅咒学说的经验研究[J].财经研究,2010,36(3):90-101.
[11]傅利平,王中亚.“资源诅咒”与资源型城市[J].城市问题,2010,29(11):2-8.
[12]Rosser A.Escaping the resource curse:The case of indonesia[J].Journal of Contemporary Asia,2007,37(1):38-58.
[13]Lederman D,Maloney W F.In search of the missing resource curse[M].Washington D C:The World Bank,2008.
[14]丁菊红,邓可斌.政府干预、自然资源与经济增长:基于中国地区层面的研究[J].中国工业经济,2007,21(7):56-64.
[15]张贡生,李伯德.驳资源诅咒论[J].经济问题,2010,32(3):19-23.
[16]方颖,纪衎,赵扬.中国是否存在“资源诅咒”[J].世界经济,2011,35(4):144-160.
[17]Brunnschweiler C N,Bulte E H.The resource curse revisited and revised:A tale of paradoxes and red herrings[J].Journal of Environment Economics and Management,2008,55(3):248-264.
[18]Murshed S M,Serino L A.Thepatten of specialization and economic growth:The resource curse hypothesis revisited[J].Structure Change and Economic Dynamics,2011,22(2):151-161.
[19]Butle E H,Damania R,Deacon R T.Resource intensity,institutions,and development[J].World Development,2005,33(7):1029-1044.
[20]Mehlum H,Moene K,Torvik R.Institutions and resource curse[J].The Economic Journal,2006,116(1):1-20.
[21]Alexeev M,Conrad R.The natural resource curse and economic transition[J].Economic Systems,2011,(35):445-461.
[22]Stijins J C.Natural resource abundance and economic growth revisited[J].Resources Policy,2005,30(2):107-130.
[23]Ding Ning,Field B C.Natural resource abundance and economic growth[J].Land Economics,2005,81(4):496-502.
[24]邵帅,杨莉莉.自然资源丰裕、资源产业依赖与中国区域经济增长[J].管理世界,2010,26(9):26-4.
[25]安锦,王建伟.资源诅咒:测度修正与政策改进[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(3):91-98.
[26]Roodman D.How to do xtabond2:An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata[J].The Stata Journal,2009,9(1):86-136.
[27]魏国学,陶然,陆曦.资源诅咒与中国元素:源自135个发展中国家的证据[J].世界经济,2010,34(12):48-66.
[28]Haber S H,Menaldo V A.Do Natural resource fuel authoritarianism?A reappraisal of the resource curse[J].American Political Science Review,2011,105(1):1-26.
[29]Schaber P.Property rights and the resource curse[J].Global Governance,2011,17(2):185-196.
[30]John L H.The resource curse and oil revenues in Angola and Venezuela[J].Science and Society,2011,75(3):348-378.
[31]Juan M,Ramírez C.Has Bolivia's 2006-12gas policy been useful to combat the resource curse?[J].Resources Policy,2014,41(9):113-123.
[32]Franklin O O.Resource curse or blessing in Africa’s oil cities?Empirical evidence from Sekondi-Takoradi,West Africa[J].City,Culture and Society,2013,4(4):229-240.
[33]赵领娣,徐乐,张磊.资源产业依赖、人力资本与“资源诅咒”假说---基于资源型城市的再检验[J].地域研究与开发,2015,35(4):52-57.
[34]巩前胜,董春诗.中国油气资源产业发展:空间集聚水平及区域分布特性[J].科技管理研究,2014,34(5):136-139,143.
[35]Krugman P.Increasing returns and economic geography[J].Journal of Political Economy,1996,99(3):48-59.
[36]张在旭,薛雅伟,郝增亮,等.中国油气资源城市“资源诅咒”效应实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(10):79-86.
[37]秦敬云,陈甬军.我国经济增长率长期演变趋势研究与预测---基于2000-2010年国内省域面板数据的分析与预测[J].经济学动态,2011,51(11):18-24.
[38]薛雅伟,张在旭,李宏勋,等.资源产业空间集聚与区域经济增长:“资源诅咒”效应实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(8):25-33.
[39]范振婷,吴三忙.“资源诅咒”问题研究综述[J].资源与产业,2015,17(6):1-6.
[40]孟明,牛东晓,许晓敏.经济转型过程中资源依赖度演进路径分解模型研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(3):18-23.
[41]周喜君,郭丕斌.煤炭资源就地转化与“资源诅咒”的规避---以中国中西部8个典型省区为例[J].资源科学,2015,37(2):318-324.
[42]张攀,吴建楠.政府干预、资源诅咒与区域创新---基于中国大陆省级面板数据的实证研究[J].科研管理,2017,38(1):62-69.
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