基于一元线性回归模型八字门滑坡累积位移预测
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摘要
我国滑坡灾害发生频繁,但滑坡的变形预测预报一直是难题,因此每年都因滑坡的变形破坏导致重大的人员伤亡和财产损失。以三峡库区八字门滑坡为研究对象,基于十多年的监测数据分析,研究分析了该滑坡的变形特征:八字门滑坡变形的主要影响因素为降雨和库水位下降,并且累积位移曲线具有"阶跃型"的变形特征。当外界因素去除或者减小的情况下,累积位移-时间曲线将变得平稳。根据此特性,选取每年变形曲线"阶跃段"(6～8月份)的监测数据,以累积位移为目标函数,基于一元线性回归模型,对八字门滑坡2004年到2017年同期的滑坡监测数据进行分析。结果表明:一元线性回归模型能够很好地模拟八字门滑坡"阶跃段"的变形过程,此变形阶段累积位移与时间呈线性关系,直线斜率基本相同。根据此线性关系,对滑坡的累积位移进行了预测,结果表明与实际监测数据相比较,预测误差在±5 mm以内,相对误差在1%以下,精度可以满足滑坡监测预警要求,可以为八字门滑坡的防治工作提供参考。
Landslide hazards occur frequently in China,but the prediction and forecast of landslide deformation have always been a problem. Therefore,the deformation and failure of landslides caused major property damage and loss of human lives each year. Based on the monitoring data for more than ten years,we studied and analyzed the deformation characteristics of the Bazimen landslide. The main reasons of the deformation are the decline of reservoir water level and the rainfall. Moreover the cumulative displacement curve has the"step type"deformation characteristic. When we remove or reduce the external factors,the cumulative displacement-time curve becomes smooth. According to this characteristic,this paper selects the monitoring data of the annual step of the deformation curve( June-August),and uses the cumulative displacement as the objective function. Based on the one-variable linear regression model,the landslide monitoring data of the Bazimen landslide from 2004 to 2017 are analyzed. The results show that the one-variable linear regression model can simulate the deformation process of the"step segment"of the Bazimen landslide well. The cumulative displacement with time in this deformation phase is linear,and the slope of the line is basically the same. According to this linear relationship,we can predict the cumulative displacement of the landslide. The results show that prediction error is less than ±5 mm comparing with the actual monitoring data,and the relative error is below 1%. The accuracy can meet the requirements of landslide monitoring and early warning. It can be used for the prevention of the landslide work and provides reference.
Landslide hazards occur frequently in China,but the prediction and forecast of landslide deformation have always been a problem. Therefore,the deformation and failure of landslides caused major property damage and loss of human lives each year. Based on the monitoring data for more than ten years,we studied and analyzed the deformation characteristics of the Bazimen landslide. The main reasons of the deformation are the decline of reservoir water level and the rainfall. Moreover the cumulative displacement curve has the"step type"deformation characteristic. When we remove or reduce the external factors,the cumulative displacement-time curve becomes smooth. According to this characteristic,this paper selects the monitoring data of the annual step of the deformation curve( June-August),and uses the cumulative displacement as the objective function. Based on the one-variable linear regression model,the landslide monitoring data of the Bazimen landslide from 2004 to 2017 are analyzed. The results show that the one-variable linear regression model can simulate the deformation process of the"step segment"of the Bazimen landslide well. The cumulative displacement with time in this deformation phase is linear,and the slope of the line is basically the same. According to this linear relationship,we can predict the cumulative displacement of the landslide. The results show that prediction error is less than ±5 mm comparing with the actual monitoring data,and the relative error is below 1%. The accuracy can meet the requirements of landslide monitoring and early warning. It can be used for the prevention of the landslide work and provides reference.
引文
Ding Y.2008.Study on prediction criterion of Bazimen landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area[D].Xi'an:Chang'an University．
Dong F M,Zhou P.2007.Application of EXCEL in one-variable linear regression analysis[J].Science Information,(12):144-146．
He K Q,Yang D B,Guo L,et al.2015.Prediction parameter of water dynamics coupled with displacement and evaluation method of debris landslide[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,36(S2):37-46．
Huang G W,Huang G W,Du Y,et al.2018.A low cost real-time monitoring system for landslide deformation with Beidou cloud[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(4):1008-1016．
Li D Y.2010.Prediction study of landslides with step-like deformation in the Three Gorges Reservoir[D].Wuhan:China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)．
Li X Z.2004.Study on time prediction and evaluation of landslide hazard[D].Chengdu:Chengdu University of Technology．
Li Y M,He T,Liu D.2017.The theory of one-dimensional linear regression method and its application[J].Journal of Chifeng University(Natural Science Edition),33(15):1-2．
Liu C Z.2019.Analysis methods on the risk identification of landslide disasters[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,27(1):88-97．
Peng L,Niu R Q,Wu T.2013.Time series analysis and support vector machine for landslide displacement prediction[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Engineering Science),47(9):1672-1679．
Tang L S,Yin K L,Du J.2012.Time prediction for landslides with stepstyle displacement characteristics[J].Geological Science and Technology Information,31(4):106-110．
Tang M G,Yang H,Xu Q,et al.2019.Permeability and parameters of landslide bodies in Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,27(2):325-332．
Xu F,Wang Y,Du J,et al.2011.Study on displacement prediction model of landslide based on time series analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,30(4):746-751．
Xu Q,Huang R Q,Li X Z.2004.Research progress in time forecast and prediction of landslide[J].Advance in Earth Science,19(3):478-483．
Xu X T,Jian W B.2015.Dynamic response of Pengkeng landslide to rainfall and its monitoring and early warning[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,23(2):203-210．
Xu X X,Niu R Q,Ye R Q,et al.2013.Displacement prediction model of landslide based on trigger factors analysis[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,30(7):42-47．
Yi Q L,Yi W,Shang M.2009.Affecting factors of deformation of a certain landslide in the three gorges reservoir area[J].Soil and Water Conservation in China,(7):32-34,64．
Zhang G R,Cheng W.2011.Stability prediction for Bazimen landslide in Zigui county under the associative action of reservoir water lever fluctuations and rainfall infiltration[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,32(S1):476-482．
Zhou C,Yin K L,Huang F M.2015.Application of the chaotic sequence WA-ELM coupling model in landslide displacement prediction[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,36(9):2674-2680．
丁岩．2008．三峡库区八字门滑坡预报判据研究[D]．西安:长安大学．
董凤鸣，周萍．2007.EXCEL在一元线性回归分析中的应用[J]．科技信息，(12):144-146．
贺可强，杨德兵，郭璐，等．2015．堆积层滑坡水动力位移耦合预测参数及其评价方法研究[J]．岩土力学，36(S2):37-46．
黄观文，黄观武，杜源，等．2018．一种基于北斗云的低成本滑坡实时监测系统[J]．工程地质学报，26(4):1008-1016．
李德营．2010．三峡库区具台阶状位移特征的滑坡预测预报研究[D]．武汉:中国地质大学(武汉)．
李秀珍．2004．滑坡灾害的时间预测预报研究[D]．成都:成都理工大学．
李玉毛，何涛，刘冬．2017．一元线性回归方法的理论及其应用[J]．赤峰学院学报(自然科学版)，33(15):1-2．
刘传正．2019．崩塌滑坡灾害风险识别方法初步研究[J]．工程地质学报，27(1):88-97．
彭令，牛瑞卿，吴婷．2013．时间序列分析与支持向量机的滑坡位移预测[J]．浙江大学学报(工学版)，47(9):1672-1679．
汤罗圣，殷坤龙，杜鹃．2012．阶跃型位移特征滑坡时间预测预报研究[J]．地质科技情报，31(4):106-110．
汤明高，杨何，许强，等．2019．三峡库区滑坡土体渗透特性及参数研究[J]．工程地质学报，27(2):325-332．
徐峰，汪洋，杜娟，等．2011．基于时间序列分析的滑坡位移预测模型研究[J]．岩石力学与工程学报，30(4):746-751．
许强，黄润秋，李秀珍．2004．滑坡时间预测预报研究进展[J]．地球科学进展，19(3):478-483．
许霄霄，牛瑞卿，叶润青，等．2013．基于外因响应的滑坡位移预测模型研究[J]．长江科学院院报，30(7):42-47．
许旭堂，简文彬．2015．滑坡对降雨的动态响应及其监测预警研究[J]．工程地质学报，23(2):203-210．
易庆林，易武，尚敏．2009．三峡库区某滑坡变形影响因素分析[J]．中国水土保持，(7):32-34,64．
张桂荣，程伟．2011．降雨及库水位联合作用下秭归八字门滑坡稳定性预测[J]．岩土力学，32(S1):476-482．
周超，殷坤龙，黄发明．2015．混沌序列WA-ELM耦合模型在滑坡位移预测中的应用[J]．岩土力学，36(9):2674-2680.
Dong F M,Zhou P.2007.Application of EXCEL in one-variable linear regression analysis[J].Science Information,(12):144-146．
He K Q,Yang D B,Guo L,et al.2015.Prediction parameter of water dynamics coupled with displacement and evaluation method of debris landslide[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,36(S2):37-46．
Huang G W,Huang G W,Du Y,et al.2018.A low cost real-time monitoring system for landslide deformation with Beidou cloud[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(4):1008-1016．
Li D Y.2010.Prediction study of landslides with step-like deformation in the Three Gorges Reservoir[D].Wuhan:China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)．
Li X Z.2004.Study on time prediction and evaluation of landslide hazard[D].Chengdu:Chengdu University of Technology．
Li Y M,He T,Liu D.2017.The theory of one-dimensional linear regression method and its application[J].Journal of Chifeng University(Natural Science Edition),33(15):1-2．
Liu C Z.2019.Analysis methods on the risk identification of landslide disasters[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,27(1):88-97．
Peng L,Niu R Q,Wu T.2013.Time series analysis and support vector machine for landslide displacement prediction[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Engineering Science),47(9):1672-1679．
Tang L S,Yin K L,Du J.2012.Time prediction for landslides with stepstyle displacement characteristics[J].Geological Science and Technology Information,31(4):106-110．
Tang M G,Yang H,Xu Q,et al.2019.Permeability and parameters of landslide bodies in Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,27(2):325-332．
Xu F,Wang Y,Du J,et al.2011.Study on displacement prediction model of landslide based on time series analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,30(4):746-751．
Xu Q,Huang R Q,Li X Z.2004.Research progress in time forecast and prediction of landslide[J].Advance in Earth Science,19(3):478-483．
Xu X T,Jian W B.2015.Dynamic response of Pengkeng landslide to rainfall and its monitoring and early warning[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,23(2):203-210．
Xu X X,Niu R Q,Ye R Q,et al.2013.Displacement prediction model of landslide based on trigger factors analysis[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,30(7):42-47．
Yi Q L,Yi W,Shang M.2009.Affecting factors of deformation of a certain landslide in the three gorges reservoir area[J].Soil and Water Conservation in China,(7):32-34,64．
Zhang G R,Cheng W.2011.Stability prediction for Bazimen landslide in Zigui county under the associative action of reservoir water lever fluctuations and rainfall infiltration[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,32(S1):476-482．
Zhou C,Yin K L,Huang F M.2015.Application of the chaotic sequence WA-ELM coupling model in landslide displacement prediction[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,36(9):2674-2680．
丁岩．2008．三峡库区八字门滑坡预报判据研究[D]．西安:长安大学．
董凤鸣，周萍．2007.EXCEL在一元线性回归分析中的应用[J]．科技信息，(12):144-146．
贺可强，杨德兵，郭璐，等．2015．堆积层滑坡水动力位移耦合预测参数及其评价方法研究[J]．岩土力学，36(S2):37-46．
黄观文，黄观武，杜源，等．2018．一种基于北斗云的低成本滑坡实时监测系统[J]．工程地质学报，26(4):1008-1016．
李德营．2010．三峡库区具台阶状位移特征的滑坡预测预报研究[D]．武汉:中国地质大学(武汉)．
李秀珍．2004．滑坡灾害的时间预测预报研究[D]．成都:成都理工大学．
李玉毛，何涛，刘冬．2017．一元线性回归方法的理论及其应用[J]．赤峰学院学报(自然科学版)，33(15):1-2．
刘传正．2019．崩塌滑坡灾害风险识别方法初步研究[J]．工程地质学报，27(1):88-97．
彭令，牛瑞卿，吴婷．2013．时间序列分析与支持向量机的滑坡位移预测[J]．浙江大学学报(工学版)，47(9):1672-1679．
汤罗圣，殷坤龙，杜鹃．2012．阶跃型位移特征滑坡时间预测预报研究[J]．地质科技情报，31(4):106-110．
汤明高，杨何，许强，等．2019．三峡库区滑坡土体渗透特性及参数研究[J]．工程地质学报，27(2):325-332．
徐峰，汪洋，杜娟，等．2011．基于时间序列分析的滑坡位移预测模型研究[J]．岩石力学与工程学报，30(4):746-751．
许强，黄润秋，李秀珍．2004．滑坡时间预测预报研究进展[J]．地球科学进展，19(3):478-483．
许霄霄，牛瑞卿，叶润青，等．2013．基于外因响应的滑坡位移预测模型研究[J]．长江科学院院报，30(7):42-47．
许旭堂，简文彬．2015．滑坡对降雨的动态响应及其监测预警研究[J]．工程地质学报，23(2):203-210．
易庆林，易武，尚敏．2009．三峡库区某滑坡变形影响因素分析[J]．中国水土保持，(7):32-34,64．
张桂荣，程伟．2011．降雨及库水位联合作用下秭归八字门滑坡稳定性预测[J]．岩土力学，32(S1):476-482．
周超，殷坤龙，黄发明．2015．混沌序列WA-ELM耦合模型在滑坡位移预测中的应用[J]．岩土力学，36(9):2674-2680.
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