基于干旱指数与主成分分析的干旱评价——以锡林河流域为例
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摘要
利用锡林河流域逐月气象数据,分析了历年降水与气温的最值变化;计算了标准化降水指数(SPI)与综合气象干旱指数(CI)并用其对研究区干旱状况进行表征;利用主成分分析法对锡林河流域的干旱情况进行评价。结果表明:1981—2016年的最高气温变化呈微弱的升高趋势,最低气温的变化趋势基本持平。最大降水量的变化趋势是减小的,各月的最小降水量基本趋于0。CI指数表明,36 a中只出现过轻旱事件,且春季最多,其次为秋季,夏季发生的最少。SPI指数表明,36 a中出现了重涝、中涝、轻涝、重旱、中旱、轻旱事件,且事件的危害程度越高发生的概率相对越小,冬季发生的旱涝事件大多危害程度相对较高。主成分分析结果表明,研究区气象因素的第一主成分主要反映水分胁迫对干旱的影响,第二主成分主要反映日照对干旱的影响,第三主成分主要反映气温对干旱的影响;综合得分结果表明,各地的干旱情况排名为:扎鲁特>巴林左旗>翁牛特旗>多伦县>化德>西乌珠穆沁>锡林浩特>林西县>东乌珠穆沁>朱日和>阿巴嘎旗>二连浩特>苏尼特左旗。
The monthly meteorological data of the Xilin River Basin were used to analyze the annual variation of precipitation and temperature in the study area. The standardized precipitation index( SPI) and integrated meteorological drought index( CI) were calculated and used to characterize the drought conditions in the study area. The principal component analysis was applied to evaluate the drought conditions in the Xilin River Basin. The results showed that the maximum temperature increased slightly in 36 years,and the minimum one did not change substantially. The change trend of the maximum precipitation was reduced,and the monthly minimum precipitation trended basically to zero. The CI index showed that only some light drought events occurred in 36 years,and they were the highest in spring,then in fall,and they were the lowest in summer. The SPI index showed that the drought levels and flood events were different in 36 years,and the higher the disaster degree was,the lower the occurrence probability would be. In winter,the disaster level of drought and flood events was relatively high. The results of principal component analysis showed that the first principal component of meteorological factors in the study area reflected mainly the impact of water stress on drought conditions,the second principal component reflected mainly the effect of sunshine on drought conditions,and the third principal component reflected mainly the effect of temperature on drought conditions. The results of comprehensive scores indicated that the drought in various places was in an order of Zarut > Bahrain Left Banner > Wengniute Banner > Duolun County > Huade > West Wuzhumuqin > Xilinhot > Linxi County > East Wuzhumuqin > Zhurihe > Abaga Banner > Erlianhaote > Sunit Left Banner.
The monthly meteorological data of the Xilin River Basin were used to analyze the annual variation of precipitation and temperature in the study area. The standardized precipitation index( SPI) and integrated meteorological drought index( CI) were calculated and used to characterize the drought conditions in the study area. The principal component analysis was applied to evaluate the drought conditions in the Xilin River Basin. The results showed that the maximum temperature increased slightly in 36 years,and the minimum one did not change substantially. The change trend of the maximum precipitation was reduced,and the monthly minimum precipitation trended basically to zero. The CI index showed that only some light drought events occurred in 36 years,and they were the highest in spring,then in fall,and they were the lowest in summer. The SPI index showed that the drought levels and flood events were different in 36 years,and the higher the disaster degree was,the lower the occurrence probability would be. In winter,the disaster level of drought and flood events was relatively high. The results of principal component analysis showed that the first principal component of meteorological factors in the study area reflected mainly the impact of water stress on drought conditions,the second principal component reflected mainly the effect of sunshine on drought conditions,and the third principal component reflected mainly the effect of temperature on drought conditions. The results of comprehensive scores indicated that the drought in various places was in an order of Zarut > Bahrain Left Banner > Wengniute Banner > Duolun County > Huade > West Wuzhumuqin > Xilinhot > Linxi County > East Wuzhumuqin > Zhurihe > Abaga Banner > Erlianhaote > Sunit Left Banner.
引文
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[2]高涛,肖苏君,乌兰,等.近47年(1961-2007年)内蒙古地区降水和气温的时空变化特征[J].内蒙古气象,2009(1):3-7.[Gao Tao,Xiao Sujun,Wu Lan,et al.Temporal-spatial characteristics of precipitation and temperaturein Inner Mongolia for the last47 years(1961-2007)[J].Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia,2009(1):3-7.]
[3]李兴华,陈素华.内蒙古草地干旱损失评估方法研究[J].草业科学,2012,29(7):1 033-1 038.[Li Xinghua,Chen Suhua.Assessment method of grassland loss from drought damage in Inner Mongolia[J].Pratacultural Science,2012,29(7):1 033-1 038.]
[4]王文静,延军平,刘永林.新疆旱涝气候的南北差异性分析[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(3):609-618.[Wang Wenjing,Yan Junping,Liu Yonglin.Difference of drought/flood disasters in Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(3):609-618.]
[5]赵海燕,高歌,张培群,等.综合气象干旱指数修正及在西南地区的适用性[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(6):698-705.[Zhao Haiyan,Gao Ge,Zhang Peiqun,et al.The modification of meteorological drought composite index and its application in Southwest China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2011,22(6):698-705.]
[6]张调风,张勃,王有恒,等.基于综合气象干旱指数的石羊河流域近50年气象干旱特征分析[J].生态学报,2013,33(3):975-984.[Zhang Tiaofeng,Zhang Bo,Wang Youheng,et al.Drought characteristics in the shiyang river basin during the recent 50 years based on a composite index[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(3):975-984.]
[7]包云轩,孟翠丽,申双和,等.基于CI指数的江苏省近50年干旱的时空分布规律[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):599-608.[Bao Yunxuan,Meng Cuili,Shen Shuanghe,et al.Temporal and spatial patterns of droughts for recent 50 yearsin Jiangsu based on meteorological drought composite index[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(5):599-608.]
[8]史继清,甘臣龙,扎西顿珠,等.基于CI指数的河北省干旱特征分析及R/S分析[J].安徽农业学报,2015,43(2):221-227.[Shi Jiqing,Gan Chenlong,Zha Xidunzhu,et al.Analysis of drought characteristics of Hebei Province and R/S based on the CIindex[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2015,43(2):221-227.]
[9]高炜,安如,王喆.基于微波遥感技术的干旱监测指数及其应用研究---以三江源区为例[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(3):541-550.[Gao Wei,An Ru,Wang Zhe.Droughtindex and its application based on microwave remote sensing technology:A case study in the Three-River Headwaters Region[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(3):541-550.]
[10]马明卫,宋松柏.渭河流域干旱指标空间分布研究[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(4):681-691.[Ma Mingwei,Song Songbai.Study on spatial distribution of drought indicesin the Weihe River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2012,29(4):681-691.]
[11]马海娇,严登华,翁白莎,等.典型干旱指数在滦河流域的适用性评价[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(4):728-734.[Ma Haijiao,Yan Denghua,Weng Baisha,et al.Applicability of typical drought indexes in the Luanhe River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2013,30(4):728-734.]
[12]王素萍,王劲松,张强,等.几种干旱指标对西南和华南区域月尺度干旱监测的适用性评价[J].高原气象,2015,34(6):1 616-1 624.[Wang Suping,Wang Jinsong,Zhang Qiang,et al.Applicability evaluation of drought indices in monthly scale drought monitoring in Southwestern and Southern China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2015,34(6):1 616-1 624.]
[13]李柏贞,周广胜.干旱指标研究进展[J].生态学报,2014,34(5):1 043-1 052.[Li Baizhen,Zhou Guangsheng.Advance in the study on drought index[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(5):1 043-1 052.]
[14]杨金虎,张强,王劲松,等.近60 a来中国西南春季持续性干旱异常特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):215-222.[Yang Jinhu,Zhang Qiang,Wang Jinsong,et al.Spring persistent droughts anomaly characteristics ofover the Southwest China in recent 60year[J].Arid Land Geography,2015,38(2):215-222.]
[15]孙玥.标准化降水指数在辽西地区干旱评价中的运用[J].水利规划与设计,2016(4):64-65,74.[Sun Yue.Application of standardized precipitation index in drought evaluation in Western Liaoning[J].Water Resources Planning and Design,2016(4):64-65,74.]
[16]历超,董洋,阙伟伦,等.基于CI指数的黑龙江干旱分析及其应用[J].现代化农业,2017(11):43-45.[Li Chao,Dong Yang,Que Weilun,et al.Drought analysis and application of Heilongjiang River based on CI index[J].Modernizing Agriculture,2017(11):43-45.]
[17]翟禄新,冯起.基于SPI的西北地区气候干湿变化[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(5):847-857.[Zhai Luxin,Feng Qi.Dryness/wetness climate variation based on standardize precipitation index in Northwest China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(5):847-857.]
[18]熊光洁.近50年中国西南地区不同时间尺度干旱气候变化特征及成因研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2013.[Xi Guangjie.Studies on Characteristics and Causes of Drought Climate Change with Different Time Scales in Southwest China in the Past 50 Years[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2013.]
[19]闫峰,王艳娇,吴波,等.近50年河北省干旱时空分布特征[J].地理研究,2010,29(3):423-430.[Yan Feng,Wang Yanjiao,Wu Bo,et al.Spatial and temporal distributions of droughtin Hebei province over the past 50 years[J].Geographical Research,2010,29(3):423-430.]
[20]尹文杰,张梦琳,胡立堂.柴达木盆地干旱时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(2):387-394.[Yin Wenjie,Zhang Menglin,Hu Litang.Spatiotemporalvariation of drought in the Qaidam Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(2):387-394.]
[21]李红梅,李林,李万志.气象干旱监测指标在青海高原的适用性分析[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(1):114-121.[Li Hongmei,Li Lin,Li Wanzhi.Applicability of meteorological drought indices in drought monitoring in the Qinghai Plateau[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(1):114-121.]
[22]张巧凤.锡林郭勒草原干旱灾害监测与风险评估研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2016.[Zhang Qiaofeng.Study on Drought Disaster Monitoring and Risk Assessment in Xilingol Grassland[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,2016.]
[23]赵希男.主成份分析法评价功能浅析[J].系统工程,1995,13(2):24-27.[Zhao Xinan.Analysisofthe evaluation effectonthe principal components analysis method[J].Systems Engineering,1995,13(2):24-27.]
[24]黄明儒,汤兵勇,任杰.综合评价的多元分析方法[J].数理统计与管理,1991(1):27-31.[Huang Mingru,Tang Bingyong,Ren Jie.Multivariate analysis method for comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Applied Statistics and Management,1991(1):27-31.]
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