基于SWAT模型的浏阳河流域径流对土地利用和气候变化的协同响应
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摘要
气候和土地利用同时作用于流域径流,影响着流域水资源的量和质。以浏阳河流域为例,基于SWAT模型和情景分析方法定量评估未来流域内土地利用和气候变化对径流的作用。首先采用元胞自动机-马尔科夫(CA-Markov)模型模拟浏阳河流域2020和2050年的土地利用空间格局,其次在World Clim数据库中获得未来流域内气候变化数据,最后采用SWAT模型定量评估未来不同情境下土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响。研究结果表明:未来浏阳河流域林地比例下降、城市建设用地和耕地比例增加;气候呈暖干趋势; 2020和2050年,土地利用变化时,浏阳河榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少2. 42和0. 96 m~3/s;气候变化时,榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少3. 02和1. 13 m~3;土地利用和气候变化综合影响下,榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少8. 54和4. 27 m~3/s;说明浏阳河流域径流的变化对气候响应更加敏感,土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响呈非线性协同作用。
Climate change and land use tend to affect watershed runoff simultaneously,which could potentially have a strong effect on the quantity and quality of water resources. This paper takes Liuyang River Basin as an example,to quantitatively assessing the synergistic impacts of runoff caused by land use and climate change in the future by applying SWAT model and scenario analysis. Firstly,the CA-Markov model was utilized to simulate spatial land use patterns of the study area in the years 2020 and 2050.Secondly,the weather data from WorldClim were obtained to represent the future climate change in study area. Lastly,SWAT model was established in Liuyang River Basin to simulate the runoff and thus quantitatively evaluate the effects of land use and climate change on runoff in the future. Results showed the area of forest would decrease,but the urban constructions and cultivated land would increase in the future.The future weather in Liuyang River Basin tends to be warmer and drier. The runoff of the Langli Station in the basin was anticipated to decline to 2. 42 m~3/s in 2020 and 0. 96 m~3/s in 2050 under the land use change scenarios. The runoff was declined to 3. 02 m~3/s in 2020 and 1. 13 m~3/s in 2050 under the climate change scenarios. Under the land use and climate change scenarios,the runoff was predicted to be decreased to 8. 54 m3/s and 4. 27 m3/s in 2020 and 2050,respectively. It revealed that the runoff in Liuyang River Basin tends to be more sensitive to climate change. In addition,the synthesized impacts of land use change and climate change to Liuyang River basin is nonlinear.
Climate change and land use tend to affect watershed runoff simultaneously,which could potentially have a strong effect on the quantity and quality of water resources. This paper takes Liuyang River Basin as an example,to quantitatively assessing the synergistic impacts of runoff caused by land use and climate change in the future by applying SWAT model and scenario analysis. Firstly,the CA-Markov model was utilized to simulate spatial land use patterns of the study area in the years 2020 and 2050.Secondly,the weather data from WorldClim were obtained to represent the future climate change in study area. Lastly,SWAT model was established in Liuyang River Basin to simulate the runoff and thus quantitatively evaluate the effects of land use and climate change on runoff in the future. Results showed the area of forest would decrease,but the urban constructions and cultivated land would increase in the future.The future weather in Liuyang River Basin tends to be warmer and drier. The runoff of the Langli Station in the basin was anticipated to decline to 2. 42 m~3/s in 2020 and 0. 96 m~3/s in 2050 under the land use change scenarios. The runoff was declined to 3. 02 m~3/s in 2020 and 1. 13 m~3/s in 2050 under the climate change scenarios. Under the land use and climate change scenarios,the runoff was predicted to be decreased to 8. 54 m3/s and 4. 27 m3/s in 2020 and 2050,respectively. It revealed that the runoff in Liuyang River Basin tends to be more sensitive to climate change. In addition,the synthesized impacts of land use change and climate change to Liuyang River basin is nonlinear.
引文
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[22]SUBEDI P,SUBEDI K,THAPA B. Application of a hybrid Cellular Automaton-Markov(CA-Markov)model in land-use change Prediction:a case study of Saddle Creek Drainage Basin,Floriad[J]. Science&Education,2013,1(6):126-132.
[23]YIN Jing,HE Fan,JIU Xiong Yu,QIU Guo Yu. Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China[J]. Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2017,21(1):183-196.
[24]曾红春,杨奇勇,李文军,等.湖南省相对水资源承载力时空变化分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(3):69-74+79.
[25] HUANG Lu,ZENG Guangming,LIANG,Jie,et al.Combined impacts of land use and climate change in the modeling of future groundwater vulnerability[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2017,22(7):15-28.
[26] FADIL A,RHINANE H,et al. Hydrologic modeling of the bouregreg watershed(Morocco)using GIS and SWAT model[J]. Journal of Geographic Information System,2011,3(4):279-289.
[27]LIANG Jie,LIU Junfeng,YUAN Xingzhong,et al. Facile synthesis of alumina-decorated multi-walled carbon nanotubes for simultaneous adsorption of cadmium ion and trichloroethylene[J]. Chemical Engineering Journal,2015,273:101-110.
[28]ERINIA A,HUANG J,ZHANG Z. Land-use changes reinforce the impacts of climate change on annual runoff dynamics in a southeast China coastal watershed[J]. Hydrology&Earth System Sciences Discussions,2015,12(6):6305-6325.
[29] MENG Yaobin,ZHOU Lingfeng,et al. A heavy metal module coupled with the SWAT model and its preliminary application in a mine-impacted watershed in China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2017,613:1207-1219.
[30]杨沫霞,马文林,张质明,等.土地利用变化和气候变化对温榆河上游流域径流变化的影响[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(3):72-78.
[31] WANG Guoqing,ZHANG Jianyun,Xu Yueping,et al.Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios[J]. Water Science and Engineering,2017,10(2):87-96.
[32]荆海晓,李小宝,房怀阳,等.基于线性规划模型的河流水环境容量分配研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(3):35-38+44.
[33]MEARIO M,ZABALETA A,et al. Evaluation of SWAT models performance to simulate streamflow spatial origin.The case of a small forested watershed[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2015,525:326-334.
[34]郭军庭,张志强,王盛萍,等.应用SWAT模型研究潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响[J].生态学报,2014,34(6):1559-1567.
[35]LIANG Jie,Yu Xun,ZENG Guangming,et al. Hydrologic index based method for determining ecologically acceptable water-level range of Dongting Lake[J]. Journal of Limnology,2015,74:75-84.
[36]Fick S E,Hijmans R J. World Clim 2:new 1‐km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas[J].International journal of climatology,2017,37(12):4302-4315.
[2]NEUPANE R P,KUNMAR S. Estimating the effects of potential climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of a large agriculture dominated watershed[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2015,529:418-429.
[3]LI Zhi,LIU Wenzhao,ZHANG Xunchang,et al. Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2009,377(1-2):35-42.
[4] LIANG Jie,FENG Chunting,ZENG Guangming,et al.Spatial distribution and source identification of heavy metals in surface soils in a typical coal mine city,Lianyuan,China[J]. Environmental Pollution,2017,225:681-690.
[5]MEAURIO M,ZABALETA A,URIARTE J A,et al. Evaluation of SWAT models performance to simulate streamflow spatial origin:the case of a small forested watershed[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2015,525:326-334.
[6] MENG Yaobin,ZHOU Lingfeng,et al. A heavy metal module coupled with the SWAT model and its preliminary application in a mine-impacted watershed in China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2017,613:1207-1219.
[7]庞力驰,李洪建,高宗强.基于SWAT模型的潇河流域地表径流模拟研究[J].山西大学学报(自然科学版),2016,39(1):158-164.
[8]DIXON B,EARLS J. Effects of urbanization on streamflow using SWAT with real and simulated meteorological data[J]. Applied Geography,2012,35(1-2):174-190.
[9]GHORABA S M. Hydrological modeling of the Simly Dam watershed(Pakistan)using GIS and SWAT model[J]. Alexandria Engineering Journal,2015,54(3):583-594.
[10]袁军营,苏保林,李卉,等.基于SWAT模型的柴河水库流域径流模拟研究[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010,46(3):361-365.
[11]曾思栋,夏军,杜鸿,等.气候变化、土地利用/覆被变化及CO2浓度升高对滦河流域径流的影响[J].水科学进展,2014,25(1):10-20.
[12]金晓明.基于SWAT模型的土地利用/覆被变化对地表径流影响的研究———以龙江流域为例[D].昆明:云南大学,2009.
[13]SETEGN S G,SRINIVASAN R,et al. SWAT model application and prediction uncertainty analysis in the Lake Tana Basin,Ethiopia[J]. Hydrological Processes,2010,24(3):357-367.
[14]SAMAL D R,GEDAM S S. Assessing the impact of land use change on stream flow in a semi-urban river basin,Maharashtra,India[J]. International Journal of Hydrology Science&Technology,2013,3(4):351-363.
[15]胡安邦.湖南红壤丘陵区小流域土壤侵蚀规律研究———以祁东县紫云村为例[D].长沙:湖南农业大学,2003.
[16] LIANG Jie,HE Xinyue,ZENG Guangming,et al. Integrating priority areas and ecological corridors into national network for conservation planning in China[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2018,626:22-29.
[17]罗巧.基于SWAT模型的湘江流域径流模拟及其对土地利用变化情景的响应[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2011.
[18]杜鹃,徐伟,赵智国,等.湘江流域近30年径流量与水位的长期变化规律研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2010,18(3):369-378.
[19]LIANG Jie,ZHONG Minzhou,ZENG Guangming,et al.Risk management for optimal land use planning integrating ecosystem services values:A case study in Changsha,Middle China[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2016,579:1675-1682.
[20] HUA Shanshan,LIANG Jie,ZENG Guangming,et al.How to manage future groundwater resource of China under climate change and urbanization:An optimal stage investment design from modern portfolio theory[J]. Water Research,2015,85:31-37.
[21]HALMY M W,GESSLER P E,HICKE J A,et al. Land use/cover change detection and prediction in the northwestern coastal of Egypt using Markov-CA[J]. Applied Geography,2015,63:101-112.
[22]SUBEDI P,SUBEDI K,THAPA B. Application of a hybrid Cellular Automaton-Markov(CA-Markov)model in land-use change Prediction:a case study of Saddle Creek Drainage Basin,Floriad[J]. Science&Education,2013,1(6):126-132.
[23]YIN Jing,HE Fan,JIU Xiong Yu,QIU Guo Yu. Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China[J]. Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2017,21(1):183-196.
[24]曾红春,杨奇勇,李文军,等.湖南省相对水资源承载力时空变化分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(3):69-74+79.
[25] HUANG Lu,ZENG Guangming,LIANG,Jie,et al.Combined impacts of land use and climate change in the modeling of future groundwater vulnerability[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2017,22(7):15-28.
[26] FADIL A,RHINANE H,et al. Hydrologic modeling of the bouregreg watershed(Morocco)using GIS and SWAT model[J]. Journal of Geographic Information System,2011,3(4):279-289.
[27]LIANG Jie,LIU Junfeng,YUAN Xingzhong,et al. Facile synthesis of alumina-decorated multi-walled carbon nanotubes for simultaneous adsorption of cadmium ion and trichloroethylene[J]. Chemical Engineering Journal,2015,273:101-110.
[28]ERINIA A,HUANG J,ZHANG Z. Land-use changes reinforce the impacts of climate change on annual runoff dynamics in a southeast China coastal watershed[J]. Hydrology&Earth System Sciences Discussions,2015,12(6):6305-6325.
[29] MENG Yaobin,ZHOU Lingfeng,et al. A heavy metal module coupled with the SWAT model and its preliminary application in a mine-impacted watershed in China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2017,613:1207-1219.
[30]杨沫霞,马文林,张质明,等.土地利用变化和气候变化对温榆河上游流域径流变化的影响[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(3):72-78.
[31] WANG Guoqing,ZHANG Jianyun,Xu Yueping,et al.Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios[J]. Water Science and Engineering,2017,10(2):87-96.
[32]荆海晓,李小宝,房怀阳,等.基于线性规划模型的河流水环境容量分配研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(3):35-38+44.
[33]MEARIO M,ZABALETA A,et al. Evaluation of SWAT models performance to simulate streamflow spatial origin.The case of a small forested watershed[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2015,525:326-334.
[34]郭军庭,张志强,王盛萍,等.应用SWAT模型研究潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响[J].生态学报,2014,34(6):1559-1567.
[35]LIANG Jie,Yu Xun,ZENG Guangming,et al. Hydrologic index based method for determining ecologically acceptable water-level range of Dongting Lake[J]. Journal of Limnology,2015,74:75-84.
[36]Fick S E,Hijmans R J. World Clim 2:new 1‐km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas[J].International journal of climatology,2017,37(12):4302-4315.
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