基于随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合的电镀厂周边地表水重金属健康风险评价
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摘要
为了更准确地研究地表水环境中重金属对人体的潜在健康危害,在美国环保署US EPA提出的健康风险评价模型的基础上构建随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合的健康风险评价模型(SS-TFN模型),对东莞市西部地区A镇、B镇、C镇、D镇和E镇电镀厂周边地表水中8种重金属(As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni、Pb和Zn)引起的健康风险进行评价。结果表明:研究区各镇总健康风险较高,地表水中重金属经饮水途径引起的成人和儿童健康风险均高于最大可接受风险水平(5. 0×10-5a-1),风险级别均在IV级风险及以上,儿童健康风险均大于成人健康风险,更容易受到重金属所致健康风险的威胁。重金属平均健康风险大小从高到低顺序依次为Cr>As>Cd>Pb>Ni>Cu>Hg>Zn。健康风险主要来自致癌性重金属,其中,As和Cr引起的成人和儿童健康风险空间分布较不均匀,应将其作为风险决策管理的优先控制对象。
To study potential health harm on human from heavy metal in surface water more accurately,on the basis of health risk assessment model developed by the USEPA has modeled a coupling model of stochastic simulation and triangular fuzzy number health risk assessment model(SS-TFN model). To use the model carried out assessment for health risk caused by 8 heavy metals(As,Cd,Cr,Cu,Hg,Ni,Pb and Zn) in surface water around the electroplating factory periphery in the towns A,B,C,D and E of western Dongguan City. The result has shown that the health risk is rather high in the towns of the study area as a whole. Health risks from heavy metal in surface water through drinking water of adults and children are all higher than the maximum acceptable level(5. 0×10-5 a-1),risk levels above category IV,health risk of children is larger than adults and more vulnerable to health threats. Heavy metals average health risk level sequence from high to low is Cr>As>Cd>Pb>Ni>Cu>Hg>Zn. Health risk is mainly from carcinogenic heavy metals,in which,As and Cr caused adults and children health risk spatial distribution more uneven,thus should be the preferential control object in risk policy-decision management.
To study potential health harm on human from heavy metal in surface water more accurately,on the basis of health risk assessment model developed by the USEPA has modeled a coupling model of stochastic simulation and triangular fuzzy number health risk assessment model(SS-TFN model). To use the model carried out assessment for health risk caused by 8 heavy metals(As,Cd,Cr,Cu,Hg,Ni,Pb and Zn) in surface water around the electroplating factory periphery in the towns A,B,C,D and E of western Dongguan City. The result has shown that the health risk is rather high in the towns of the study area as a whole. Health risks from heavy metal in surface water through drinking water of adults and children are all higher than the maximum acceptable level(5. 0×10-5 a-1),risk levels above category IV,health risk of children is larger than adults and more vulnerable to health threats. Heavy metals average health risk level sequence from high to low is Cr>As>Cd>Pb>Ni>Cu>Hg>Zn. Health risk is mainly from carcinogenic heavy metals,in which,As and Cr caused adults and children health risk spatial distribution more uneven,thus should be the preferential control object in risk policy-decision management.
引文
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[28]李如忠．基于不确定信息的城市水源水环境健康风险评价[J]．水利学报，2007,38(8):895-900.
[29]周晓蔚，王丽萍，郑丙辉．基于三角模糊数的沉积物污染生态风险评价[J]．环境科学，2008,29(11):3206-3212.
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[31]Zeng X,Liu Y,You S,et al. Spatial distribution,health risk assessment and statistical source identification of the trace elements in surface water from the Xiangjiang River,China[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2015,22(12):9400-9412.
[2]Liu T Y,Yang X,Wang Z L,et al. Enhanced chitosan beads supported Fe0-nanoparticles for removal of heavy metals from electroplating wastewater in permeable reactive barriers[J]. Water Research,2013,47(17):6691-6700.
[3]Muhammad S,Shah M T,Khan S. Health risk assessment of heavy metals and their source apportionment in drinking water of Kohistan region,northern Pakistan[J]. Microchemical Journal,2011,98(2):334-343.
[4]Li S Y,Zhang Q F. Risk assessment and seasonal variations of dissolved trace elements and heavy metals in the Upper Han River,China[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials,2010,181(1-3):1051-1058.
[5]秦普丰，雷鸣，郭雯．湘江湘潭段水环境主要污染物的健康风险评价[J]．环境科学研究，2008,21(4):190-195.
[6]Wu B,Zhang Y,Zhang X X et al. Health Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Source Water and Drinking Water of China:Quantitative Analysis Based on Published Monitoring Data[J].Science of the Total Environment,2011,s410-411(411):112-118.
[7]孙超，陈振楼，张翠，等．上海市主要饮用水源地水重金属健康风险初步评价[J]．环境科学研究，2009,22(1):60-65.
[8]周晓蔚，王丽萍，郑丙辉．基于三角模糊数的沉积物污染生态风险评价[J]．环境科学，2008,29(11):3206-3212.
[9]Adamu C I,Nganje T N,Edet A. Heavy metal contamination and health risk assessment associated with abandoned barite mines in Cross River State,southeastern Nigeria[J]. Environmental Nanotechnology,Monitoring&Management,2015,3:10-21.
[10]Achary M S,Panigrahi S,Satpathy K K,et al. Health risk assessment and seasonal distribution of dissolved trace metals in surface waters of Kalpakkam,southwest coast of Bay of Bengal[J]. Regional Studies in Marine Science,2016,6:96-108.
[11]徐美娟，鲍波，陈春燕，等．宁波市地表水重金属污染现状和健康风险评价[J]．环境科学，2018,39(2):729-737.
[12]余葱葱，赵委托，高小峰，等．陆浑水库饮用水源地水体中金属元素分布特征及健康风险评价[J]．环境科学，2018,39(1):89-98.
[13]吴义锋，薛联青，吕锡武．基于未确知数学理论的水质风险评价模式[J]．环境科学学报，2006,26(6):1047-1052.
[14]郑德凤，苏琳，李红英，等．基于随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型的地下水环境健康风险评价研究[J]．环境科学与管理，2014,39(10):155-158.
[15]金菊良，吴开亚，李如忠．水环境风险评价的随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型[J]．水利学报，2008,39(11):1257-1261.
[16]汪哲荪，金菊良，李如忠，等．基于风险的区域水安全评价模糊数随机模拟模型[J]．四川大学学报(工程科学版)，2010,42(6):1-5.
[17]肖成明，王真，郭怀成．蒙特卡洛模拟在湖泊生态安全评价指标权重确定中的应用[J]．安全与环境工程，2016,23(4):83-86.
[18]田延飞，润玉宏，张丹，等．基于云模型和蒙特卡洛方法的通航环境系统风险评价[J]．交通运输研究，2016,2(6):38-46.
[19]金菊良，刘丽，汪明武，等．基于三角模糊数随机模拟的地下水环境系统综合风险评价模型[J]．地理科学，2011,31(2):143-147.
[20]李如忠，汪明武，金菊良．地下水环境风险的模糊多指标分析方法[J]．地理科学，2010,30(2):229-235.
[21]祝慧娜，袁兴中，曾光明，等．基于区间数的河流水环境健康风险模糊综合评价模型[J]．环境科学学报，2009,29(7):1527-1533.
[22]丁昊天，袁兴中，曾光明，等．基于模糊化的长株潭地区地下水重金属健康风险评价[J]．环境科学研究，2009,22(11):89-94.
[23]Office of Emergency and Remedial Response. Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Volume I:Human Health Evaluation Manual.Supplemental Guidance．“STANDARD DEFAULT EXPOSURE FACTORS”Interim Final[R]. Washington:US EPA,1991.
[24]Office of Health and Environmental Assessment. Guidelines for Exposure Assessment[R]. Washington DC:US EPA,1992:186.
[25]Office of Research and Development. Child-specific exposure factors handbook[R]. Washington DC:US EPA,2002.
[26]环境保护部．中国人群暴露参数手册(成人卷)[M]．北京:中国环境出版社，2013.
[27]环境保护部．中国人群暴露参数手册(儿童卷:6-17岁)[M]．北京:中国环境出版社，2016.
[28]李如忠．基于不确定信息的城市水源水环境健康风险评价[J]．水利学报，2007,38(8):895-900.
[29]周晓蔚，王丽萍，郑丙辉．基于三角模糊数的沉积物污染生态风险评价[J]．环境科学，2008,29(11):3206-3212.
[30]程鹏，李叙勇．洋河流域不同时空水体重金属污染及健康风险评价[J]．环境工程学报，2017,11(8):4513-4519.
[31]Zeng X,Liu Y,You S,et al. Spatial distribution,health risk assessment and statistical source identification of the trace elements in surface water from the Xiangjiang River,China[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2015,22(12):9400-9412.
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