基于改进突变理论的滑坡稳定性分级判别
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摘要
基于改进的突变理论,提出一种滑坡稳定性的综合判别方法。利用山西省交城县24个滑坡实地调查的基础资料,从孕灾环境、承灾体属性和诱灾因素3个方面,选取相对高差、岩土体类型、斜坡岩土体风化程度与裂隙发育特征、植被覆盖率、斜坡结构类型、坡面形态、斜坡坡度、后缘加载、前缘切坡、降雨量10个指标,建立了滑坡稳定性判别模型。采用突变理论、模糊数学、贡献率法相结合的方法确定了初始隶属度函数值,由归一公式逐层递归运算得到总突变级数,利用改进的突变理论方法对总突变级数进行转换,形成新的滑坡稳定性判别准则。将改进后的评判结果与实地调查结果进行对比分析,表明改进的判别方法精度较高,可为滑坡地质灾害的稳定性评价及其防治提供参考。
A comprehensive method for landslide stability discriminant is proposed based on the improved catastrophe theory. The 24 landslides in Jiaocheng County,Shanxi province,were investigated. Choosing relative elevation differences,slide material types,degree of weathering and characteristics of fracture development,plant cover ratio,slope structure type,slope morphology,slope ratio,trailing edge load,leading edge slope and precipitation as indicators from three aspects of disaster environment and factors,and disaster bearers,a landslide stability discriminant model was established. The initial membership function values were derived by combining catastrophe theory,fuzzy mathematics and contribution rate method. Normalization formula was utilized to form recursive calculating to get total catastrophe progression,which then was transformed into new criterion by the improved catastrophe theory to determine landslide stability. The improved catastrophe theory to evaluate the stability of landslides has higher precision by comparing the improved results with on-site verification results. Therefore,this method can be used to evaluate the stability of landslide and provide the basis for landslide prevention and control.
A comprehensive method for landslide stability discriminant is proposed based on the improved catastrophe theory. The 24 landslides in Jiaocheng County,Shanxi province,were investigated. Choosing relative elevation differences,slide material types,degree of weathering and characteristics of fracture development,plant cover ratio,slope structure type,slope morphology,slope ratio,trailing edge load,leading edge slope and precipitation as indicators from three aspects of disaster environment and factors,and disaster bearers,a landslide stability discriminant model was established. The initial membership function values were derived by combining catastrophe theory,fuzzy mathematics and contribution rate method. Normalization formula was utilized to form recursive calculating to get total catastrophe progression,which then was transformed into new criterion by the improved catastrophe theory to determine landslide stability. The improved catastrophe theory to evaluate the stability of landslides has higher precision by comparing the improved results with on-site verification results. Therefore,this method can be used to evaluate the stability of landslide and provide the basis for landslide prevention and control.
引文
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[11]杜小军,吕义清.西张庄村滑坡稳定性分析评价[J].华北国土资源,2017,5:26-28.DU Xiaojun,LV Yiqing. Evaluation of the stability of the slope of Xizhangzhuang village[J]. Huabei Land and Resources,2017,5:26-28.(in Chinese)
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[15]夏杰塬.改进的突变评价法在河南省农业干旱中的应用[D].华北水利水电大学,2017.XIA Jieyuan. Application of Improved Catastrophe Evaluation Method in Agricultural Drought in Henan Province[D]. North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,2017.(in Chinese)
[16] ang F,Shao D,Xiao C,et al. Assessment of urban water security based on catastrophe theory[J]. Water Science&Technology A Journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research,2012,66(3):487.
[17]杨丰顺.城市水安全风险评价理论方法及应用研究[D].武汉大学,2013.YANG Fengshun. Study on Risk Assessment Theories,Methods and Applications of Urban Water Security[D]. Wuhan University,2013.(in Chinese)
[18]牛全福.基于GIS的地质灾害风险评估方法研究[D].兰州大学,2011.NIU Quanfu. Study on the Method of Geological Disaster Risk Assessment Based on GIS-A case Study in“4. 14”Yushu Earthquake[D]. Lanzhou University,2011.(in Chinese)
[19]王峰.四川省南江县地质灾害易发性区划研究[D].成都理工大学,2015.WANG Feng. Study on Geohazards Susceptibility Mapping of Nanjiang County,Sichuan Province[D]. Chengdu University of Technology,2015.(in Chinese)
[20]胡晋川.基于突变理论的黄土边坡稳定性分析方法研究[D].长安大学,2012.HU Jinchuan. Based on the Catastrophe Theory Study on Stability Analysis Method of Cut Slope in Loess[D]. Changan University,2012.(in Chinese)
[21]许超.古交市狮子河流域滑坡地质灾害易发性评价[D].太原理工大学,2018.XU Chao. Vulnerability Assessment of Landside Geological Hazard in Shi Zi River Basin Gujiao[D]. Taiyuan University of Technology,2018.(in Chinese)
[22]刘晓腾.基于GIS的静宁县滑坡地质灾害危险性评价[D].中国地质大学(北京),2018.LIU Xiaoteng. A Dissertation Submitted to China University of Geosciences for Master Degree[D]. China University of Geosciences(Beijing),2018.(in Chinese)
[23] Mohammad A G,Rahman K,Bellie S&Loren Cobb. Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal,2010,55(7):1137-1151.
[2]李栋.基于突变理论的晋祠泉域岩溶水水质及其脆弱性评价[D].太原理工大学,2018.LI Dong. Assessment of Karst Ground Water Quality and Vulnerability in Jin Ci Spring Area Based on Catastrophe Theory[D]. Taiyuan University of Technology,2018.(in Chinese)
[3]徐美,朱翔,周军.基于突变理论的湖南省土地生态安全格局分析[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(6):199-207.XU Mei,ZHU Xiang,ZHOU Jun. Analysis of land ecological security pattern of Hunan Province based on catastrophe theory[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(6):199-207.(in Chinese)
[4]冯平,李绍飞,李建柱.基于突变理论的地下水环境风险评价[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(2):13-18.FENG Ping,LI Shaofei,LI Jianzhu. Catastrophe theory risk evaluation of groundwater environment[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2008,17(2):13-18.(in Chinese)
[5]宋盛渊,王清,潘玉珍,等.基于突变理论的滑坡危险性评价[J].岩土力学,2014,35(S2):422-428.SONG Shengyuan,WANG Qing,PAN Yuzhen,et al. Evaluation of landslide susceptibility degree based on catastrophe theory[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics,2014,35(S2):422-428.(in Chinese)
[6]胡安龙,王孔伟,李建林,等.基于智能算法优化支持向量机模型的滑坡稳定性预测[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(5):46-54.HU Anlong,WANG Kongwei,LI Jianlin,et al. Prediction of landslide stability based on SVM model optimized by intelligent algorithm[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2016,25(5):46-54.(in Chinese)
[7]李红英,谭跃虎,李二兵.库区单体滑坡灾害风险定量评估研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2013,9(S2):2040-2046.LI Hongying,TAN Yuehu,LI Erbing,Research on quantitative of landslide assessment disaster risk in reservoir area of kala hydropower station[J]. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2013,9(S2):2040-2046..(in Chinese)
[8]乔建平,吴彩燕,田宏岭.三峡库区云阳-巫山段坡形因素对滑坡发育的贡献率研究[J].工程地质学报,2006,14(1):18-22.QIAO Jianping,WU Caiyan,TIAN Hongling. Contributing ratios of slope shape toward the land slide development from YunYang to WuShan in Theree Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology,2006,14(1):18-22.(in Chinese)
[9]吴彩燕,乔建平.三峡库区云阳-巫山段坡向因素对滑坡发育的贡献率研究[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2005,37(4):25-29.WU Caiyan,QIAO Jianping. The contributing rate research of slope aspect to landslide growth from Yunyang to Wushan in Three Gorges Reservoir Region[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology,2005,37(4):25-29.(in Chinese)
[10]乔建平,吴彩燕,田宏岭.三峡库区云阳—巫山段地层因素对滑坡发育的贡献率研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,17(17):2920-2924.QIAO Jianping,WU Caiyan,TIAN Hongling. Contribution rate research of stratum to landslide growth of Yunyang-Wushan in Three Gorges Reservoir Region[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,17(17):2920-2924.(in Chinese)
[11]杜小军,吕义清.西张庄村滑坡稳定性分析评价[J].华北国土资源,2017,5:26-28.DU Xiaojun,LV Yiqing. Evaluation of the stability of the slope of Xizhangzhuang village[J]. Huabei Land and Resources,2017,5:26-28.(in Chinese)
[12] Kehinde A M,Hwee S L. Development of a GIS-based catastrophe theory model(modified DRASTIC model)for groundwater vulnerability assessment[J]. Earth Science Informatics,2017,10(3):339-356.
[13] Ghorbani M A,Khatibi R,Sivakumar B,et al. Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques,2010,55(7):1137-1151.
[14] Sadeghfam S,Hassanzadeh Y,Nadiri A A,et al. Localization of groundwater vulnerability assessment using catastrophe theory[J]. Water Resources Management,2016,30(13):4585-4601.
[15]夏杰塬.改进的突变评价法在河南省农业干旱中的应用[D].华北水利水电大学,2017.XIA Jieyuan. Application of Improved Catastrophe Evaluation Method in Agricultural Drought in Henan Province[D]. North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,2017.(in Chinese)
[16] ang F,Shao D,Xiao C,et al. Assessment of urban water security based on catastrophe theory[J]. Water Science&Technology A Journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research,2012,66(3):487.
[17]杨丰顺.城市水安全风险评价理论方法及应用研究[D].武汉大学,2013.YANG Fengshun. Study on Risk Assessment Theories,Methods and Applications of Urban Water Security[D]. Wuhan University,2013.(in Chinese)
[18]牛全福.基于GIS的地质灾害风险评估方法研究[D].兰州大学,2011.NIU Quanfu. Study on the Method of Geological Disaster Risk Assessment Based on GIS-A case Study in“4. 14”Yushu Earthquake[D]. Lanzhou University,2011.(in Chinese)
[19]王峰.四川省南江县地质灾害易发性区划研究[D].成都理工大学,2015.WANG Feng. Study on Geohazards Susceptibility Mapping of Nanjiang County,Sichuan Province[D]. Chengdu University of Technology,2015.(in Chinese)
[20]胡晋川.基于突变理论的黄土边坡稳定性分析方法研究[D].长安大学,2012.HU Jinchuan. Based on the Catastrophe Theory Study on Stability Analysis Method of Cut Slope in Loess[D]. Changan University,2012.(in Chinese)
[21]许超.古交市狮子河流域滑坡地质灾害易发性评价[D].太原理工大学,2018.XU Chao. Vulnerability Assessment of Landside Geological Hazard in Shi Zi River Basin Gujiao[D]. Taiyuan University of Technology,2018.(in Chinese)
[22]刘晓腾.基于GIS的静宁县滑坡地质灾害危险性评价[D].中国地质大学(北京),2018.LIU Xiaoteng. A Dissertation Submitted to China University of Geosciences for Master Degree[D]. China University of Geosciences(Beijing),2018.(in Chinese)
[23] Mohammad A G,Rahman K,Bellie S&Loren Cobb. Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal,2010,55(7):1137-1151.
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