陕西汉中市1951—2015年气温变化特征
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摘要
采用汉中市气象站1951—2015年的月气温数据,使用滑动平均、线性回归分析、小波分析和Mann-Kendal非参数检验方法,分析了汉中市1951—2015年来气温变化特征及其规律.结果表明:汉中市1951—2015年平均气温不断升高,线性倾向率为0.21℃/10 a,在2001年前后发生突变,并存在50～60 a和75～80 a的周期变化;各个季节平均气温也均在升高,其线性倾向率分别为0.289、0.106、0.201、0.245℃/10 a,其中春季增温最为明显;春、夏、秋季平均气温与年平均气温一致,升温趋势趋同,而冬季相对较早,突变节点在1996年.
In this paper,monthly air temperature data of Hanzhong meteorological station from 1951 to 2015 were used,and the characteristics and laws of air temperature change in Hanzhong city in the past 65 years were analyzed using the moving average,linear regression analysis,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendal non-parametric test methods. The results showed that from 1951 to 2015 the average temperature was risen,linear trend rate was 0.21 ℃/10 a,and the mutation was occurred around 2001. And there were the periodic changes of 50-60 a and 75-80 a. Each season average temperatures were also risen,the linear trend rate were 0.289,0.106,0.201,0.245 ℃/10 a.The spring temperature was most obvious. We found the average temperature in spring,summer and autumn was consistent with the annual average temperature,and the warming trend was similar. However,winter was relatively early,and the abrupt transition node was in 1996.
In this paper,monthly air temperature data of Hanzhong meteorological station from 1951 to 2015 were used,and the characteristics and laws of air temperature change in Hanzhong city in the past 65 years were analyzed using the moving average,linear regression analysis,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendal non-parametric test methods. The results showed that from 1951 to 2015 the average temperature was risen,linear trend rate was 0.21 ℃/10 a,and the mutation was occurred around 2001. And there were the periodic changes of 50-60 a and 75-80 a. Each season average temperatures were also risen,the linear trend rate were 0.289,0.106,0.201,0.245 ℃/10 a.The spring temperature was most obvious. We found the average temperature in spring,summer and autumn was consistent with the annual average temperature,and the warming trend was similar. However,winter was relatively early,and the abrupt transition node was in 1996.
引文
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[19]卢爱刚,王瑛.延安市近60年气温与降水趋势突变分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):60-62.
[20]张涵丹,卫伟,薛萐.基于R/S分析和Mann-Kendall检验的定西市气温降水变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(6):183-189.
[21]翟盘茂,任福民.中国近四十年最高最低温度变化[J].气象学报,1997,55(4):418-429.
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[23]曲静,王昱,方建刚.西安市秋雨气候特征及预测[J].河南科学,2018,36(5):771-775.
[24]姜雁飞,李锐,郝慧梅.汉中市近59年气候变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):71-74.
[2]郑景云,方修琦,吴绍洪.中国自然地理学中的气候变化研究前沿进展[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(1):16-27.
[3]张兰生,方修琦,任国玉.全球变化[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000.
[4]安芷生,符淙斌.全球变化科学的进展[J].地球科学进展,2001,16(5):671-680.
[5]STOCKER T F,QIN D,PLATTNER G K,et al.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[6]丁一汇,任国玉.中国气候变化科学概论[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[7]任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):701-716.
[8]PARKER D E,JONES P D,BEVAN A,et al.Inter decadal changes of surface temperatures since the 19th century[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1994,9(9):14373-14399.
[9]JONES P D.Hemispheric surface air temperature variations:a reanalysis and an update to 1993[J].Journal of Climatology,1994,7(11):1794-1802.
[10]张卉,郭慕萍,赵双巧,等.1960-2008年山西省气温变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2012,27(2):16-21.
[11]丁斌,顾显跃,缪启龙.长江流域近50年来的气温变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2006,15(4):531-536.
[12]王翠花,李雄,缪启龙.中国近50a来日最低气温变化特征研究[J].地理科学,2003,23(4):441-447.
[13]延军平,郑宇.秦岭南北地区环境变化响应比较研究[J].地理研究,2001,20(5):576-582.
[14]王新华,延军平,杨谨菲,等.1950-2008年汉中市气候变暖及其经济适应[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(5):557-562.
[15]王志杰,苏嫄.1951-2010年汉中市气温变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):169-174.
[16]魏凤英.现代气候统计与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2007.
[17]胡亚飞,包光,王红桃.榆林市1951-2012年气温变化特征[J].地球环境学报,2017,8(2):127-136.
[18]吴国曾.实时信号小波分析中边界处理方法及应用[D].郑州:郑州大学,2010.
[19]卢爱刚,王瑛.延安市近60年气温与降水趋势突变分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):60-62.
[20]张涵丹,卫伟,薛萐.基于R/S分析和Mann-Kendall检验的定西市气温降水变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(6):183-189.
[21]翟盘茂,任福民.中国近四十年最高最低温度变化[J].气象学报,1997,55(4):418-429.
[22]秦大河,罗勇,陈振林,等.气候变化科学的最新进展:IPCC第四次评估综合报告解析[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(6):311-314.
[23]曲静,王昱,方建刚.西安市秋雨气候特征及预测[J].河南科学,2018,36(5):771-775.
[24]姜雁飞,李锐,郝慧梅.汉中市近59年气候变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):71-74.
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