基于风沙防治的典型农牧交错区土地利用多情景模拟
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摘要
作为典型的半干旱沙区,科尔沁左翼后旗(简称"科左后旗")土地退化严重,土壤风蚀程度较强,有针对性地调整土地利用结构,有助于农牧交错区社会经济和生态环境的可持续发展.采用修正风蚀方程(RWEQ)模拟科左后旗的风蚀状况,并结合CA-Markov模型和当地风蚀状况及区域相关规划,设定了延续现有发展态势的历史发展情景、在全区域内开展风蚀治理的全域治理情景和依照区域风蚀特征实施治理的分区治理情景3种未来可能的发展情景,基于Dyna-CLUE模型模拟各情景下科左后旗2020年的土地利用格局.结果表明:①2010年科左后旗的平均风蚀量为33. 86 t/(hm2·a),风蚀程度较为严重,并且具有明显的西高东低的空间差异.②采用Dyna-CLUE模型模拟2010年土地利用空间分布结果的Kappa指数达0. 921,模拟效果良好.③与2010年相比,历史发展情景下,2020年科左后旗荒漠化趋势更加严重,未利用地面积将增加33. 76%,草地退化明显;全域治理情景下,风沙治理取得了一定成效,70. 30%的未利用地得到治理,其中分别有32. 32%和32. 52%转化为林地和草地,水域也得到一定恢复,面积将增加5. 01%;相比于全域治理情景,分区治理情景下高风蚀地区有更多的未利用地得到治理,低风蚀地区耕地面积将增加4. 68%,进行风沙治理的同时也在一定程度上保护了耕地.研究显示,Dyna-CLUE模型在我国农牧交错区具有较好的土地利用格局的模拟能力,采取积极的风沙防治措施可以大幅提高当地的林地和草地面积,而采取有针对性的分区域治理政策在进行风沙治理的同时也可有效地保护耕地.
Horqin Left Back Banner is located in a typical semi-arid sand area with heavy soil degradation and strong wind erosion.From the perspective of wind erosion prevention and land protection,optimization of land use structure will help regional sustainable development in terms of social,economic and ecological aspects in the interlaced agricultural and pastoral areas.This study applied the Revised Wind Erosion Equation(RWEQ)model for simulating wind erosion in the case area of Horqin Left Back Banner.Three future scenarios,considering historical development,whole area administration and regional administration,were development based on the CA-Markov model,local wind erosion conditions and related regional planning.The Dyna-CLUE model was further used to simulate land use patterns of Horqin Left Back Banner in 2020 for each developed scenario.The model results suggested that:(1)The wind erosion of Horqin Left Back Banner was intense with a clear spatial heterogeneity in the year of 2010,with an average value up to 33.86 t/(hm~2·a).(2)The Kappa index of the simulated results for the year of 2010 was about 0.921,indicating that the Dyna-CLUE model has a good simulation performance.(3)The results for the historical development scenario suggested a serious trend of desertification and grassland degradation in Horqin Left Back Banner,and in particular the area of desert land was found to increase by 33.76%.The whole area administration scenario indicated an effective achievement in wind erosion control.70.30%of the unused land was reclaimed,where32.32%and 32.52%were converted to woodland and grassland,respectively.The water and wetlands areas were also restored,with an increase in total area by 5.01%.Compared to the whole area administration scenario,the regional administration scenario suggested that the reclaimed area of unutilized land in high wind erosion areas was even larger,meanwhile the area of arable land in low wind erosion areas was found to increase by 4.68%.Overall,this work suggested that the Dyna-CLUE model is robust in simulating land-use patterns for agricultural and pastoral ecotones in China;active sand prevention and control measures can significantly increase local forest land and grassland areas,and targeted sub-regional governance policies can effectively protect cultivated land while harnessing wind erosion.
Horqin Left Back Banner is located in a typical semi-arid sand area with heavy soil degradation and strong wind erosion.From the perspective of wind erosion prevention and land protection,optimization of land use structure will help regional sustainable development in terms of social,economic and ecological aspects in the interlaced agricultural and pastoral areas.This study applied the Revised Wind Erosion Equation(RWEQ)model for simulating wind erosion in the case area of Horqin Left Back Banner.Three future scenarios,considering historical development,whole area administration and regional administration,were development based on the CA-Markov model,local wind erosion conditions and related regional planning.The Dyna-CLUE model was further used to simulate land use patterns of Horqin Left Back Banner in 2020 for each developed scenario.The model results suggested that:(1)The wind erosion of Horqin Left Back Banner was intense with a clear spatial heterogeneity in the year of 2010,with an average value up to 33.86 t/(hm~2·a).(2)The Kappa index of the simulated results for the year of 2010 was about 0.921,indicating that the Dyna-CLUE model has a good simulation performance.(3)The results for the historical development scenario suggested a serious trend of desertification and grassland degradation in Horqin Left Back Banner,and in particular the area of desert land was found to increase by 33.76%.The whole area administration scenario indicated an effective achievement in wind erosion control.70.30%of the unused land was reclaimed,where32.32%and 32.52%were converted to woodland and grassland,respectively.The water and wetlands areas were also restored,with an increase in total area by 5.01%.Compared to the whole area administration scenario,the regional administration scenario suggested that the reclaimed area of unutilized land in high wind erosion areas was even larger,meanwhile the area of arable land in low wind erosion areas was found to increase by 4.68%.Overall,this work suggested that the Dyna-CLUE model is robust in simulating land-use patterns for agricultural and pastoral ecotones in China;active sand prevention and control measures can significantly increase local forest land and grassland areas,and targeted sub-regional governance policies can effectively protect cultivated land while harnessing wind erosion.
引文
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[5]罗承平,薛纪瑜.中国北方农牧交错带生态环境脆弱性及其成因分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,1995,9(1):1-7.LUO Chengping,XUE Jiyu. Ecologically vulnerable characteristics of the farming-pastoral zigzag zone in northern China[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,1995,9(1):1-7.
[6]李金亚.科尔沁沙地草原沙化时空变化特征遥感监测及驱动力分析[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2014.
[7]HAGEN L J.A wind erosion prediction system to meet user needs[J].Journal of Soil&Water Conservation,1991,46(2):106-111.
[8]YAN Yuchun,XIN Xiaoping,XU Xingliang,et al. Quantitative effects of wind erosion on the soil texture and soil nutrients under different vegetation coverage in a semiarid steppe of northern China[J].Plant&Soil,2013,369(1/2):585-598.
[9]KASSAS M. Desertification:a general review[J]. Journal of Arid Environments,1995,30(2):115-128.
[10]REYNOLDS J F,STAFFORD SMITH D M.Global desertification:do humans cause deserts[M]. Berlin,Germany:Dahlem University Press,2002.
[11]FRYREAR D W,SALEH A,BILBRO J D. A single eventwind erosion model[J].Transactions of the ASAE,1998,41(5):1369-1374.
[12]ZOBECK T M,PARKER N C,HASKELL S,et al.Scaling up from field to region for wind erosion prediction using a field-scale wind erosion model and GIS[J].Agriculture Ecosystems&Environment,2000,82(1):247-259.
[13]YOUSSEF F,VISSER S,KARSSENBERG D,et al. Calibration of RWEQ in a patchy landscape; a first step towards a regional scale wind erosion model[J].Aeolian Research,2012,3(4):467-476.
[14]FRYRCAR D W,CHEN W N,LESTER C. Revised wind erosion equation[J].Annals of Arid Zone,2001,40(3):265-279.
[15]DU Heqiang,WANG Tao,XUE Xian. Potential wind erosion rate response to climate and land-use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River,China,1986-2013[J]. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2017,42(13):1923-1937.
[16]DU Heqiang,XUE Xian,WANG Tao,et al.Wind erosion modulus and quantity evaluation of aeolian sediment feed into river in watershed of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach of Yellow River from1986 to 2013[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(10):142-151.
[17]JIANG Ling,XIAO Yi,ZHENG Hua,et al.Spatio-temporal variation of wind erosion in Inner Mongolia of China between 2001 and 2010[J].Chinese Geographical Science,2016,26(2):155-164.
[18]MAO Xiyan,MENG Jijun. Cellular automata-based model for developing land use ecological security patterns in semi-arid areas:a case study of Ordos,Inner Mongolia,China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2013,70(1):269-279.
[19]CHEN Yunhao,LI Xiaobing,SU Wei,et al.Simulating the optimal land-use pattern in the farming-pastoral transitional zone of northern China[J]. Computers Environment&Urban Systems,2008,32(5):407-414.
[20]ZHANG Ling,NAN Zhoutong,XU Yi,et al.Hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of the Heihe River Basin,northwest China[J]. Plos One,2016,11(6):e0158394.
[21]VERBURG P H,OVERMARS K P,MILNE E,et al. Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling:exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model[J].Landscape Ecology,2009,24(9):1167-1181.
[22]陆文涛,代超,郭怀成.基于Dyna-CLUE模型的滇池流域土地利用情景设计与模拟[J].地理研究,2015,34(9):1619-1629.LU Wentao,DAI Chao,GUO Huaicheng. Land use scenario design and simulation based on Dyna-CLUE model in Dianchi Lake Watershed[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(9):1619-1629.
[23]RENWICK A,JANSSON T,VERBURG P H,et al. Policy reform and agricultural land abandonment in the EU[J].Land Use Policy,2013,30(1):446-457.
[24]郭延凤,于秀波,姜鲁光,等.基于CLUE模型的2030年江西省土地利用变化情景分析[J].地理研究,2012,31(6):1016-1028.GUO Yanfeng,YU Xiubo,JIANG luguang,et al. Scenarios analysis of land use change based on CLUE model in Jiangxi Province by2030[J].Geographical Research,2012,31(6):1016-1028.
[25]LIMA M L,ROMANELLI A,MASSONE H E. Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socioeconomic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed[J].Science of the Total Environment,2015,530:333-346.
[26]WANG Meng,SUN Xiaofeng. Potential impact of land use change on ecosystem services in China[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,2016,188:248.
[27]杨振常,李玉霖,崔夺,等.半干旱典型沙区1951—2005年主要气象要素及潜在蒸散量的变化趋势研究[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(5):1384-1392.YANG Zhenchang,LI Yulin,CUI Duo,et al. Changes of main parameters and potential evapotranspiration in typical semi-arid sandy lands of northern China during 1951-2005[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2012,32(5):1384-1392.
[28]韩小红,杨联安,周欢水,等.我国北方强风蚀区空间分布格局及特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(3):113-116.HAN Xiaohong,YANG Lian'an,ZHOU Huanshui,et al. The analysis on spatial distribution and characteristics of strong aeolian erosion districts in North China[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2008,22(3):113-116.
[29]马玉凤,介冬梅,严平,等科尔沁东部沙地土壤可风蚀性研究[J].世界地理,2007,26(3):338-344.MA Yufeng,JIE Dongmei,YAN Ping,et al. Study on wind erodibility in soil under eastern Horqin sandy land[J]. Global Geology,2007,26(3):338-344.
[30]孙万仙.近20年科尔沁土地沙漠化的人文驱动机制研究:以科尔沁左翼后旗为例[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古师范大学,2010.
[31]FRYREAR D W,BILBRO J D,SALEH A,et al.RWEQ:improved wind erosion technology[J].Journal of Soil&Water Conservation,2000,55(2):183-189.
[32]蔡玉梅,刘彦随,宇振荣,等.土地利用变化空间模拟的进展:CLUE-S模型及其应用[J].地理科学进展,2004,23(4):63-71.CAI Yumei,LIU Yansui,YU Zhenrong,et al. Progress in spatial simulation of land use change:CLUE-S model and its application[J].Progress in Geography,2004,23(4):63-71.
[33]LUO Geping,YIN Changying,CHEN Xi,et al. Combining system dynamic model and CLUE-S model to improve land use scenario analyses at regional scale:a case study of Sangong watershed in Xinjiang,China[J].Ecological Complexity,2010,7(2):198-207.
[34]彭建,武文欢,刘焱序,等.基于PSR框架的内蒙古自治区土壤保持服务分区[J].生态学报,2017,37(11):3849-3861.PENG Jian,WU Wenhuan,LIU Yanxu,et al. Soil conservation service zoning in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region based on PSR framework[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(11):3849-3861.
[35]朱震达,陈治平,吴正,等.塔克拉玛干沙漠风沙地貌研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1981.
[36]TANNER S,KATRA I,ZAADY E. Short-term soil loss by eolian erosion in response to different rain-fed agricultural practices[J].Soil&Tillage Research,2016,155:149-156.
[37]陈玉民,郭国双.中国主要农作物需水量等值线图研究[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1993.
[2]傅伯杰.地理学:从知识、科学到决策[J].地理学报,2017,72(11):1923-1932.FU Bojie. Geography:from knowledge,science to decision making support[J].Acta Geographical Sinica,2017,72(11):192-1932.
[3]王涛,吴薇,薛娴,等.近50年来中国北方沙漠化土地的时空变化[J].地理学报,2004,59(2):203-212.WANG Tao,WU Wei,XUE Xian,et al.Spatial-temporal changes of sandy desertified land during last 5 decades in northern China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2004,59(2):203-212.
[4]冯莉莉.中国北方沙漠化土地时空演变及其驱动力分析[D].北京:中国林业科学研究院,2017.
[5]罗承平,薛纪瑜.中国北方农牧交错带生态环境脆弱性及其成因分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,1995,9(1):1-7.LUO Chengping,XUE Jiyu. Ecologically vulnerable characteristics of the farming-pastoral zigzag zone in northern China[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,1995,9(1):1-7.
[6]李金亚.科尔沁沙地草原沙化时空变化特征遥感监测及驱动力分析[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2014.
[7]HAGEN L J.A wind erosion prediction system to meet user needs[J].Journal of Soil&Water Conservation,1991,46(2):106-111.
[8]YAN Yuchun,XIN Xiaoping,XU Xingliang,et al. Quantitative effects of wind erosion on the soil texture and soil nutrients under different vegetation coverage in a semiarid steppe of northern China[J].Plant&Soil,2013,369(1/2):585-598.
[9]KASSAS M. Desertification:a general review[J]. Journal of Arid Environments,1995,30(2):115-128.
[10]REYNOLDS J F,STAFFORD SMITH D M.Global desertification:do humans cause deserts[M]. Berlin,Germany:Dahlem University Press,2002.
[11]FRYREAR D W,SALEH A,BILBRO J D. A single eventwind erosion model[J].Transactions of the ASAE,1998,41(5):1369-1374.
[12]ZOBECK T M,PARKER N C,HASKELL S,et al.Scaling up from field to region for wind erosion prediction using a field-scale wind erosion model and GIS[J].Agriculture Ecosystems&Environment,2000,82(1):247-259.
[13]YOUSSEF F,VISSER S,KARSSENBERG D,et al. Calibration of RWEQ in a patchy landscape; a first step towards a regional scale wind erosion model[J].Aeolian Research,2012,3(4):467-476.
[14]FRYRCAR D W,CHEN W N,LESTER C. Revised wind erosion equation[J].Annals of Arid Zone,2001,40(3):265-279.
[15]DU Heqiang,WANG Tao,XUE Xian. Potential wind erosion rate response to climate and land-use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River,China,1986-2013[J]. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2017,42(13):1923-1937.
[16]DU Heqiang,XUE Xian,WANG Tao,et al.Wind erosion modulus and quantity evaluation of aeolian sediment feed into river in watershed of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach of Yellow River from1986 to 2013[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(10):142-151.
[17]JIANG Ling,XIAO Yi,ZHENG Hua,et al.Spatio-temporal variation of wind erosion in Inner Mongolia of China between 2001 and 2010[J].Chinese Geographical Science,2016,26(2):155-164.
[18]MAO Xiyan,MENG Jijun. Cellular automata-based model for developing land use ecological security patterns in semi-arid areas:a case study of Ordos,Inner Mongolia,China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2013,70(1):269-279.
[19]CHEN Yunhao,LI Xiaobing,SU Wei,et al.Simulating the optimal land-use pattern in the farming-pastoral transitional zone of northern China[J]. Computers Environment&Urban Systems,2008,32(5):407-414.
[20]ZHANG Ling,NAN Zhoutong,XU Yi,et al.Hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of the Heihe River Basin,northwest China[J]. Plos One,2016,11(6):e0158394.
[21]VERBURG P H,OVERMARS K P,MILNE E,et al. Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling:exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model[J].Landscape Ecology,2009,24(9):1167-1181.
[22]陆文涛,代超,郭怀成.基于Dyna-CLUE模型的滇池流域土地利用情景设计与模拟[J].地理研究,2015,34(9):1619-1629.LU Wentao,DAI Chao,GUO Huaicheng. Land use scenario design and simulation based on Dyna-CLUE model in Dianchi Lake Watershed[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(9):1619-1629.
[23]RENWICK A,JANSSON T,VERBURG P H,et al. Policy reform and agricultural land abandonment in the EU[J].Land Use Policy,2013,30(1):446-457.
[24]郭延凤,于秀波,姜鲁光,等.基于CLUE模型的2030年江西省土地利用变化情景分析[J].地理研究,2012,31(6):1016-1028.GUO Yanfeng,YU Xiubo,JIANG luguang,et al. Scenarios analysis of land use change based on CLUE model in Jiangxi Province by2030[J].Geographical Research,2012,31(6):1016-1028.
[25]LIMA M L,ROMANELLI A,MASSONE H E. Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socioeconomic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed[J].Science of the Total Environment,2015,530:333-346.
[26]WANG Meng,SUN Xiaofeng. Potential impact of land use change on ecosystem services in China[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,2016,188:248.
[27]杨振常,李玉霖,崔夺,等.半干旱典型沙区1951—2005年主要气象要素及潜在蒸散量的变化趋势研究[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(5):1384-1392.YANG Zhenchang,LI Yulin,CUI Duo,et al. Changes of main parameters and potential evapotranspiration in typical semi-arid sandy lands of northern China during 1951-2005[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2012,32(5):1384-1392.
[28]韩小红,杨联安,周欢水,等.我国北方强风蚀区空间分布格局及特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(3):113-116.HAN Xiaohong,YANG Lian'an,ZHOU Huanshui,et al. The analysis on spatial distribution and characteristics of strong aeolian erosion districts in North China[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2008,22(3):113-116.
[29]马玉凤,介冬梅,严平,等科尔沁东部沙地土壤可风蚀性研究[J].世界地理,2007,26(3):338-344.MA Yufeng,JIE Dongmei,YAN Ping,et al. Study on wind erodibility in soil under eastern Horqin sandy land[J]. Global Geology,2007,26(3):338-344.
[30]孙万仙.近20年科尔沁土地沙漠化的人文驱动机制研究:以科尔沁左翼后旗为例[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古师范大学,2010.
[31]FRYREAR D W,BILBRO J D,SALEH A,et al.RWEQ:improved wind erosion technology[J].Journal of Soil&Water Conservation,2000,55(2):183-189.
[32]蔡玉梅,刘彦随,宇振荣,等.土地利用变化空间模拟的进展:CLUE-S模型及其应用[J].地理科学进展,2004,23(4):63-71.CAI Yumei,LIU Yansui,YU Zhenrong,et al. Progress in spatial simulation of land use change:CLUE-S model and its application[J].Progress in Geography,2004,23(4):63-71.
[33]LUO Geping,YIN Changying,CHEN Xi,et al. Combining system dynamic model and CLUE-S model to improve land use scenario analyses at regional scale:a case study of Sangong watershed in Xinjiang,China[J].Ecological Complexity,2010,7(2):198-207.
[34]彭建,武文欢,刘焱序,等.基于PSR框架的内蒙古自治区土壤保持服务分区[J].生态学报,2017,37(11):3849-3861.PENG Jian,WU Wenhuan,LIU Yanxu,et al. Soil conservation service zoning in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region based on PSR framework[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(11):3849-3861.
[35]朱震达,陈治平,吴正,等.塔克拉玛干沙漠风沙地貌研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1981.
[36]TANNER S,KATRA I,ZAADY E. Short-term soil loss by eolian erosion in response to different rain-fed agricultural practices[J].Soil&Tillage Research,2016,155:149-156.
[37]陈玉民,郭国双.中国主要农作物需水量等值线图研究[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1993.
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