基于CGE模拟环境税征收对化工产业影响的地区差异——以苏豫两省为例
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摘要
基于苏豫两省2012年投入产出表构建CGE模型,模拟不同环境税率下两省化工产品价格和需求等方面的变化。比较两省模拟结果的差异并分析差异来源,结合各省实际对征收环境税提出政策建议。结果显示:在相同税率下,环境税对江苏影响不大,对河南则造成很大冲击。这很大程度上源于江苏的化工产业运营结构更健康,环境税对其的冲击不明显,反而引导绿色发展模式,为化工产业在市场竞争中寻找到新的出路。因此河南等省份在实施环境税时,要综合考虑地区间经济发展的差异性,既要选择合适税率以免过度冲击,更为重要的是引导产业升级,以实现"双重红利"。
This paper simulated the changes in the prices and demand of chemical products in Jiangsu and Henan province under different environmental tax rates by building the CGE mode based on the 2012 input-output tables. In addition, it compared the differences between the two provinces' simulation results and analyzed the sources of the differences, and proposed policy recommendations for the collection of environmental taxes in light of the actual situation in each province. The results showed that the environmental tax had little impact on Jiangsu, but it had a great impact on Henan under the same tax rate. The above results largely due to the healthier operation structure of Jiangsu's chemical industry, and the impact of environmental tax was not obvious. Therefore, it thought that Henan province should comprehensively consider the differences in economic development between regions when it implemented environmental taxes. Besides, Henan province should not only choose the right tax rate to avoid excessive shocks, but also lead the industry upgrade.
This paper simulated the changes in the prices and demand of chemical products in Jiangsu and Henan province under different environmental tax rates by building the CGE mode based on the 2012 input-output tables. In addition, it compared the differences between the two provinces' simulation results and analyzed the sources of the differences, and proposed policy recommendations for the collection of environmental taxes in light of the actual situation in each province. The results showed that the environmental tax had little impact on Jiangsu, but it had a great impact on Henan under the same tax rate. The above results largely due to the healthier operation structure of Jiangsu's chemical industry, and the impact of environmental tax was not obvious. Therefore, it thought that Henan province should comprehensively consider the differences in economic development between regions when it implemented environmental taxes. Besides, Henan province should not only choose the right tax rate to avoid excessive shocks, but also lead the industry upgrade.
引文
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[15]Ren S, Yuan Y, Wang H, et al. Research on the Influence of Sulfur Tax on the Industrial Structure of Liaoning Province under CGE Model[J]. Energy Procedia,2011,5(1):2 405-2 409.
[16]Scrimgeour F, Oxley L, Fatai K. Reducing carbon emissions?The relative effectiveness of different types of environmental tax:the case of New Zealand[J]. Environmental Modelling&Software,2005,20(11):1 439-1 448.
[17]沈月琴,曾程,王成军,等.碳汇补贴和碳税政策对林业经济的影响研究:基于CGE的分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(4):560-568.
[18]梁伟,朱孔来,姜巍.环境税的区域节能减排效果及经济影响分析[J].财经研究,2014,40(1):40-49.
[19]刘宇,胡晓虹,王宇,苏利阳.成本收益视角下环境税种的最优选择[J].宏观经济研究,2017(5):80-90.
[20]王德发.能源税征收的劳动替代效应实证研究:基于上海市2002年大气污染的CGE模型的试算[J].财经研究,2006(2):98-105.
[21]李香菊,赵娜.税收收入中性约束下最优环境税率研究[J].财经理论与实践,2015,36(5):103-107.
[22]郭嵘,陆萍.互联网+环境下企业货币资金内部控制研究[J].物流工程与管理,2018,40(10):110-112.
[2]李元龙.能源环境政策的增长、就业和减排效应：基于CGE模型的研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2011.
[3]袁宇杰.旅游CGE系统开发及应用[D].上海:华东师范大学,2010.
[4]田志伟,胡怡建.“营改增”对财政经济的动态影响:基于CGE模型的分析[J].财经研究,2014,40(2):4-18.
[5]Ponjan P, Thirawat N. Impacts of Thailand’s tourism tax cut:A CGE analysis[J]. Annals of Tourism Research,2016(61):45-62.
[6]毛艳华,钱斌华.基于2007年投入产出表的中国碳税开征研究[J].煤炭经济研究,2011,31(04):18-20.
[7]童锦治,沈奕星.基于CGE模型的环境税优惠政策的环保效应分析[J].当代财经,2011(5):33-40.
[8]Mardones C, Baeza N. Economic and environmental effects of a CO 2 tax in Latin American countries[J]. Energy Policy, 2018(114):262-273.
[9]Mackenzie S G, Wallace M, Kyriazakis I. How effective can environmental taxes be in reducing the environmental impact of pig farming systems?[J]. Agricultural Systems, 2017(152):131-144.
[10]Ekins P, Pollitt H, Summerton P, et al. Increasing carbon and material productivity through environmental tax reform[J]. Energy Policy,2012,42(2):365-376.
[11]梁伟.基于CGE模型的环境税“双重红利”研究[D].天津:天津大学,2013.
[12]Klok J, Larsen A, Dahl A, et al. Ecological Tax Reform in Denmark:history and social acceptability[J]. Energy Policy,2006,34(8):905-916.
[13]Freire-González J. Environmental taxation and the double dividend hypothesis in CGE modelling literature:A critical review[J]. Journal of Policy Modeling, 2017(4):57-59.
[14]俞杰.环境税“双重红利”与我国环保税制改革取向[J].宏观经济研究, 2013(8):3-7.
[15]Ren S, Yuan Y, Wang H, et al. Research on the Influence of Sulfur Tax on the Industrial Structure of Liaoning Province under CGE Model[J]. Energy Procedia,2011,5(1):2 405-2 409.
[16]Scrimgeour F, Oxley L, Fatai K. Reducing carbon emissions?The relative effectiveness of different types of environmental tax:the case of New Zealand[J]. Environmental Modelling&Software,2005,20(11):1 439-1 448.
[17]沈月琴,曾程,王成军,等.碳汇补贴和碳税政策对林业经济的影响研究:基于CGE的分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(4):560-568.
[18]梁伟,朱孔来,姜巍.环境税的区域节能减排效果及经济影响分析[J].财经研究,2014,40(1):40-49.
[19]刘宇,胡晓虹,王宇,苏利阳.成本收益视角下环境税种的最优选择[J].宏观经济研究,2017(5):80-90.
[20]王德发.能源税征收的劳动替代效应实证研究:基于上海市2002年大气污染的CGE模型的试算[J].财经研究,2006(2):98-105.
[21]李香菊,赵娜.税收收入中性约束下最优环境税率研究[J].财经理论与实践,2015,36(5):103-107.
[22]郭嵘,陆萍.互联网+环境下企业货币资金内部控制研究[J].物流工程与管理,2018,40(10):110-112.
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