海表温度变化时近海日本鲭栖息地时空分布预测
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摘要
海表水温变化影响着中上层鱼类栖息地分布。本研究根据2003—2012年7—12月的近海日本鲭生产统计数据,结合海表温度(SST)数据,利用正态函数分布的方法,分别以作业次数和单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)为指标建立基于水温的适应性指数(SI),取二者平均值作为栖息地适应性指数(HSI)。在气候变化背景下,假设SST上升或下降0.5、1、2°C时,对各月近海日本鲭最适宜栖息地(HSI>0.8)空间和面积变化情况进行预测。结果显示,SST上升时,近海日本鲭适宜栖息地有明显的北移现象,7—12月最适栖息地面积增减比重为–73.1%～44.7%;SST下降时,有明显的南移现象,7—12月最适宜栖息地面积增减比重为–54.9%～123.4%。该研究结果可用于在SST上升等气候变化背景下,以及近海海况发生变化等情况下,对日本鲭栖息地和作业渔场时空分布进行预测。
The change of surface water temperature affects the habitat distribution of pelagic fishes. According to the chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus) fishery-dependent data from July to December during 2003 to 2012 in the Chinese coastal waters, and sea surface water temperature(SST) from remote sensingthe suitable index(SI) from the fishing effort and the catch per unit effort(CPUE) based on SST were established by using the method of normal distribution. The halntat suitability index(HSI) were estimated by taking the average. The latitude distribution and area change of the most suitable habitat(HSI>0.8) was analysed when the monthly SST increased and declined respectively by 0.5 °C, 1 °C and 2 °C. Results showed that the coastal chub mackerel had an obvious southward shifting tendency when the SST increased, and the most suitable habitat area changed from –73.1% to44.7% during July to December. There was also an obvious northward shifting tendency when the SST dropped and the most suitable habitat area changed from –54.9% to 123.4% during July to December. The area also had different developing trends. The research suggests that the findings of this article can be used to predict the coastal chub mackerel habitat and its fishing ground under El Nino or La Nina, as well as changes in offshore water in the future.
The change of surface water temperature affects the habitat distribution of pelagic fishes. According to the chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus) fishery-dependent data from July to December during 2003 to 2012 in the Chinese coastal waters, and sea surface water temperature(SST) from remote sensingthe suitable index(SI) from the fishing effort and the catch per unit effort(CPUE) based on SST were established by using the method of normal distribution. The halntat suitability index(HSI) were estimated by taking the average. The latitude distribution and area change of the most suitable habitat(HSI>0.8) was analysed when the monthly SST increased and declined respectively by 0.5 °C, 1 °C and 2 °C. Results showed that the coastal chub mackerel had an obvious southward shifting tendency when the SST increased, and the most suitable habitat area changed from –73.1% to44.7% during July to December. There was also an obvious northward shifting tendency when the SST dropped and the most suitable habitat area changed from –54.9% to 123.4% during July to December. The area also had different developing trends. The research suggests that the findings of this article can be used to predict the coastal chub mackerel habitat and its fishing ground under El Nino or La Nina, as well as changes in offshore water in the future.
引文
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[10]李曰嵩,潘灵芝,严利平,等.基于个体模型的东海鲐鱼渔场形成机制研究[J].海洋学报,2014,36(6):67-74.Li Y S,Pan L Z,Yan L P,et al.Individual-based model study on the fishing ground of chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)in the East China Sea[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2014,36(6):67-74(in Chinese).
[11]张晶,韩士鑫.黄、东海鲐鲹鱼渔场环境分析[J].海洋渔业,2004,26(4):321-325.Zhang J,Han S X.Analysis on the central fishing grounds environment of common Japanese mackerel and round scad in the East China Sea[J].Marine Fisheries,2004,26(4):321-325(in Chinese).
[12]Yasuda T,Yukami R,Ohshimo S.Fishing ground hotspots reveal long-term variation in chub mackerel Scomber japonicus habitat in the East China Sea[J].Marine Ecology Progress Series,2014,501:239-250.
[13]Chen X J,Li G,Feng B,et al.Habitat suitability index of chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)from July to September in the East China Sea[J].Journal of Oceanography,2009,65(1):93-102.
[14]Morrison M L,Marcot B G,Mannan R W.WildlifeHabitat relationships:Concepts and applications[J].The Condor:Ornithological Applications,2007,109(4):980-981.
[15]蒋瑞,陈新军,雷林,等.秋冬季智利竹?鱼栖息地指数模型比较[J].水产学报,2017,41(2):240-249.Jiang R,Chen X J,Lei L,et al.A comparative study on habitat suitability index of Trachurus murphyi during autumn and winte[J].Journal of Fisheries of China,2017,41(2):240-249(in Chinese).
[16]陈新军,刘必林,田思泉,等.利用基于表温因子的栖息地模型预测西北太平洋柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)渔场[J].海洋与湖沼,2009,40(6):707-713.Chen X J,Liu B L,Tian S Q,et al.Forecasting the fishing ground of Ommastrephes bartramii with SST-based habitat suitability modelling in Northwestern Pacific[J].Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica,2009,40(6):707-713(in Chinese).
[17]郭爱,陈新军.基于表温的中西太平洋鲣栖息地适应指数的研究[J].大连水产学院学报,2008,23(6):455-461.Guo A,Chen X J.The habitat suitability index of skipjack based on sea surface temperature in the western-central Pacific Ocean[J].Journal of Dalian Fisheries University,2008,23(6):455-461(in Chinese).
[18]崔科,陈新军.东黄海鲐鱼资源丰度与表温关系[J].南方水产,2007,3(4):20-25.Cui K,Chen X J.Study of the relationships between SSTand mackerel abundances in the Yellow and East China Seas[J].South China Fisheries Science,2007,3(4):20-25(in Chinese).
[19]Andrade H A,Garcia C A E.Skipjack tuna fishery in relation to sea surface temperature off the southern Brazilian coast[J].Fisheries Oceanography,1999,8(4):245-254.
[20]Bertrand A,Josse E,Bach P,et al.Hydrological and trophic characteristics of tuna habitat:Consequences on tuna distribution and longline catchability[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries&Aquatic Sciences,2002,59(6):1002-1013.
[21]Gillis D M,Peterman R M,Tyler A V.Movement dynamics in a fishery:Application of the ideal free distribution to spatial allocation of effort[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,1993,50(2):323-333.
[22]Yu W,Chen X J,Yi Q,et al.Variability of suitable habitat of western winter-spring cohort for neon flying squid in the northwest pacific under anomalous environments[J].PLoS One,2015,10(4):e0122997.
[23]李纲,陈新军.夏季东海渔场鲐鱼产量与海洋环境因子的关系[J].海洋学研究,2009,27(1):1-8.Li G,Chen X J.Study on the relationship between catch of mackerel and environmental factors in the East China Sea in summer[J].Journal of Marine Sciences,2009,27(1):1-8(in Chinese).
[24]苗振清.东海北部近海夏秋季鲐鲹渔场与海洋水文环境的关系[J].浙江水产学院学报,1993,12(1):32-39.Miao Z Q.Relation between chub macherel and round scad fishing grounds in the summer-autumn and ocean hydrologic environment in the northen part of the East China Sea[J].Journal of Zhejiang College of Fisheries,1993,12(1):32-39(in Chinese).
[25]方学燕,陈新军,丁琪.基于栖息地指数的智利外海茎柔鱼渔场预报模型优化[J].广东海洋大学学报,2014,34(4):67-73.Fang X Y,Chen X J,Ding Q.Optimization fishing ground prediction models of Dosidicus gigas in the high sea off Chile based on habitat suitability index[J].Journal of Guangdong Ocean University,2014,34(4):67-73(in Chinese).
[26]苏杭,陈新军,汪金涛.海表水温变动对东、黄海鲐鱼栖息地分布的影响[J].海洋学报,2015,37(6):88-96.Su H,Chen X J,Wang J T.Influence of sea surface temperature changes on Scomber japonicus habitat in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2015,37(6):88-96(in Chinese).
[27]龚彩霞,陈新军,高峰,等.栖息地适宜性指数在渔业科学中的应用进展[J].上海海洋大学学报,2011,20(2):260-269.Gong C X,Chen X J,Gao F,et al.Review on habitat suitability index in fishery science[J].Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2011,20(2):260-269(in Chinese).
[2]张洪亮,周永东,姚光展.浙江群众传统灯光围网渔业利用资源状况分析[J].海洋渔业,2007,29(2):174-178.Zhang H L,Zhou Y D,Yao G Z.Analysis on the utilization of resources in small scale traditional light seining fisheries of Zhejiang province[J].Marine Fisheries,2007,29(2):174-178(in Chinese).
[3]程家骅,林龙山.东海区鲐鱼生物学特征及其渔业现状的分析研究[J].海洋渔业,2004,26(2):73-78.Cheng J H,Lin L S.Study on the biological characteristics and status of common mackerel(Scomber japonicus Houttuyn)fishery in the east China sea region[J].Marine Fisheries,2004,26(2):73-78(in Chinese).
[4]官文江,陈新军,李纲.海表水温和拉尼娜事件对东海鲐鱼资源时空变动的影响[J].上海海洋大学学报,2011,20(1):102-107.Guan W J,Chen X J,Li G.Influence of sea surface temperature and La Ni?a event on temporal and spatial fluctuation of chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)stock in the east China sea[J].Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2011,20(1):102-107(in Chinese).
[5]李纲,郑晓琼,朱国平,等.基于水温因子的东、黄海鲐鱼剩余产量模型建立[J].上海海洋大学学报,2011,20(1):108-113.Li G,Zhen X Q,Zhu G P,et al.Establishment of surplus production model for chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea based on the sea surface temperature[J].Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2011,20(1):108-113(in Chinese).
[6]Sun C H,Chiang F S,Tsoa E,et al.The effects of El Ni?o on the mackerel purse-seine fishery harvests in Taiwan:An analysis integrating the barometric readings and sea surface temperature[J].Ecological Economics,2006,56(2):268-279.
[7]Yatsu A,Watanabe T,Ishida M,et al.Environmental effects on recruitment and productivity of Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus with recommendations for management[J].Fisheries Oceanography,2005,14(4):263-278.
[8]Hiyama Y,Yoda M,Ohshimo S.Stock size fluctuations in chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)in the East China Sea and the Japan/East Sea[J].Fisheries Oceanography,2002,11(6):347-353.
[9]官文江.基于海洋遥感的东、黄海鲐鱼渔场与资源研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2008.Guan W J.Remote-sensing-based assessment of chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)fishing ground and stock dynamics in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2008(in Chinese).
[10]李曰嵩,潘灵芝,严利平,等.基于个体模型的东海鲐鱼渔场形成机制研究[J].海洋学报,2014,36(6):67-74.Li Y S,Pan L Z,Yan L P,et al.Individual-based model study on the fishing ground of chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)in the East China Sea[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2014,36(6):67-74(in Chinese).
[11]张晶,韩士鑫.黄、东海鲐鲹鱼渔场环境分析[J].海洋渔业,2004,26(4):321-325.Zhang J,Han S X.Analysis on the central fishing grounds environment of common Japanese mackerel and round scad in the East China Sea[J].Marine Fisheries,2004,26(4):321-325(in Chinese).
[12]Yasuda T,Yukami R,Ohshimo S.Fishing ground hotspots reveal long-term variation in chub mackerel Scomber japonicus habitat in the East China Sea[J].Marine Ecology Progress Series,2014,501:239-250.
[13]Chen X J,Li G,Feng B,et al.Habitat suitability index of chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)from July to September in the East China Sea[J].Journal of Oceanography,2009,65(1):93-102.
[14]Morrison M L,Marcot B G,Mannan R W.WildlifeHabitat relationships:Concepts and applications[J].The Condor:Ornithological Applications,2007,109(4):980-981.
[15]蒋瑞,陈新军,雷林,等.秋冬季智利竹?鱼栖息地指数模型比较[J].水产学报,2017,41(2):240-249.Jiang R,Chen X J,Lei L,et al.A comparative study on habitat suitability index of Trachurus murphyi during autumn and winte[J].Journal of Fisheries of China,2017,41(2):240-249(in Chinese).
[16]陈新军,刘必林,田思泉,等.利用基于表温因子的栖息地模型预测西北太平洋柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)渔场[J].海洋与湖沼,2009,40(6):707-713.Chen X J,Liu B L,Tian S Q,et al.Forecasting the fishing ground of Ommastrephes bartramii with SST-based habitat suitability modelling in Northwestern Pacific[J].Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica,2009,40(6):707-713(in Chinese).
[17]郭爱,陈新军.基于表温的中西太平洋鲣栖息地适应指数的研究[J].大连水产学院学报,2008,23(6):455-461.Guo A,Chen X J.The habitat suitability index of skipjack based on sea surface temperature in the western-central Pacific Ocean[J].Journal of Dalian Fisheries University,2008,23(6):455-461(in Chinese).
[18]崔科,陈新军.东黄海鲐鱼资源丰度与表温关系[J].南方水产,2007,3(4):20-25.Cui K,Chen X J.Study of the relationships between SSTand mackerel abundances in the Yellow and East China Seas[J].South China Fisheries Science,2007,3(4):20-25(in Chinese).
[19]Andrade H A,Garcia C A E.Skipjack tuna fishery in relation to sea surface temperature off the southern Brazilian coast[J].Fisheries Oceanography,1999,8(4):245-254.
[20]Bertrand A,Josse E,Bach P,et al.Hydrological and trophic characteristics of tuna habitat:Consequences on tuna distribution and longline catchability[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries&Aquatic Sciences,2002,59(6):1002-1013.
[21]Gillis D M,Peterman R M,Tyler A V.Movement dynamics in a fishery:Application of the ideal free distribution to spatial allocation of effort[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,1993,50(2):323-333.
[22]Yu W,Chen X J,Yi Q,et al.Variability of suitable habitat of western winter-spring cohort for neon flying squid in the northwest pacific under anomalous environments[J].PLoS One,2015,10(4):e0122997.
[23]李纲,陈新军.夏季东海渔场鲐鱼产量与海洋环境因子的关系[J].海洋学研究,2009,27(1):1-8.Li G,Chen X J.Study on the relationship between catch of mackerel and environmental factors in the East China Sea in summer[J].Journal of Marine Sciences,2009,27(1):1-8(in Chinese).
[24]苗振清.东海北部近海夏秋季鲐鲹渔场与海洋水文环境的关系[J].浙江水产学院学报,1993,12(1):32-39.Miao Z Q.Relation between chub macherel and round scad fishing grounds in the summer-autumn and ocean hydrologic environment in the northen part of the East China Sea[J].Journal of Zhejiang College of Fisheries,1993,12(1):32-39(in Chinese).
[25]方学燕,陈新军,丁琪.基于栖息地指数的智利外海茎柔鱼渔场预报模型优化[J].广东海洋大学学报,2014,34(4):67-73.Fang X Y,Chen X J,Ding Q.Optimization fishing ground prediction models of Dosidicus gigas in the high sea off Chile based on habitat suitability index[J].Journal of Guangdong Ocean University,2014,34(4):67-73(in Chinese).
[26]苏杭,陈新军,汪金涛.海表水温变动对东、黄海鲐鱼栖息地分布的影响[J].海洋学报,2015,37(6):88-96.Su H,Chen X J,Wang J T.Influence of sea surface temperature changes on Scomber japonicus habitat in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2015,37(6):88-96(in Chinese).
[27]龚彩霞,陈新军,高峰,等.栖息地适宜性指数在渔业科学中的应用进展[J].上海海洋大学学报,2011,20(2):260-269.Gong C X,Chen X J,Gao F,et al.Review on habitat suitability index in fishery science[J].Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2011,20(2):260-269(in Chinese).
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