甘肃省春玉米灾损风险评估
|
摘要
干旱是影响西北地区春玉米生产的主要气象灾害。应用甘肃省1980—2011年71个县(市)的春玉米播种面积和总产量资料,以风险理论为基础,采用风险评估技术方法,探讨了甘肃省县、市春玉米产量在干旱气候条件下的波动和减产的风险水平,通过正态分布判别和偏态分布正态化,研究了西北地区春玉米不同年型减产率变化特征,分析了甘肃省玉米产量灾害风险的空间分布规律,以期为防灾减灾提供理论依据。结果显示:不同等级风险区域呈整体上分散、小面积连片的特点,河西地区减产率最高,其次为陇中地区。高风险区主要集中在陇东地区的东部,较高风险区分布在陇中、陇东大部分地区,河西地区通过灌溉可有效缓解旱灾,风险较低。不同减产率等级下风险分析可为春玉米产量风险预测及抗灾减损、农业保险指数制定和农业保险赔付等提供参考。
The spring maize was seriously influenced by drought disaster in Northwest China.Based on the risk theory and risk assessment method, the spring maize acreage and total yield of 71 counties or cities in Gansu Province during 1980—2011 were analyzed to explore the risk level of fluctuation and yield reduction of spring maize production in Gansu Province under arid climatic conditions. Through the discrimination of normal distribution and the normalization of skewness distribution, we studied the variation of yield reduction rates of spring maize in different years in Northwest China and analyzed the spatial distribution pattern of spring maize production disaster risk in order to provide theoretical basis for disaster prevention and reduction. The results indicated that the risk areas of different degrees scattered on the whole and contiguous in a small area, among which the highest of rate yield occurred in Hexi Area, followed by Longzhong Area; high-risk areas mainly concentrated in the eastern part of Longdong, the higher-risk areas distributed in the most parts of central and eastern Guizhou; Hexi Area can effectively alleviate drought through irrigation, and has the lower risk. The results can provide the references for predicting the risk of yield loses, resisting drought disaster and decreasing economic loses.
The spring maize was seriously influenced by drought disaster in Northwest China.Based on the risk theory and risk assessment method, the spring maize acreage and total yield of 71 counties or cities in Gansu Province during 1980—2011 were analyzed to explore the risk level of fluctuation and yield reduction of spring maize production in Gansu Province under arid climatic conditions. Through the discrimination of normal distribution and the normalization of skewness distribution, we studied the variation of yield reduction rates of spring maize in different years in Northwest China and analyzed the spatial distribution pattern of spring maize production disaster risk in order to provide theoretical basis for disaster prevention and reduction. The results indicated that the risk areas of different degrees scattered on the whole and contiguous in a small area, among which the highest of rate yield occurred in Hexi Area, followed by Longzhong Area; high-risk areas mainly concentrated in the eastern part of Longdong, the higher-risk areas distributed in the most parts of central and eastern Guizhou; Hexi Area can effectively alleviate drought through irrigation, and has the lower risk. The results can provide the references for predicting the risk of yield loses, resisting drought disaster and decreasing economic loses.
引文
[1]Cramer W, Yohe G, Al E, et al. Detection and attribution of observed impacts: Climate change 2014[J]. Development & Change, 2014,6(2):13-36.
[2]周广胜,何奇瑾,汲玉河.适应气候变化的国际行动和农业措施研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(5):527-533.
[3]Tao F, Yokozawa M, Xu Y, et al. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981—2000[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2006,138(1/4):82-92.
[4]张强,陈丽华,王润元,等.气候变化与西北地区粮食和食品安全[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):509-513.
[5]程静.农业旱灾脆弱性及其风险管理研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2011.
[6]白月明,刘玲,王瑜莎.气候变化背景下中国西北地区作物干旱灾损评估技术:以甘肃省春玉米为例[J].科技导报,2012,30(19):28-33.
[7]路立平,赵化春,赵娜,等.世界玉米产业现状及发展前景[J].玉米科学,2006,14(5):149-151,156.
[8]李明.世界玉米生产回顾和展望[J].玉米科学,2010,18(3):165-169.
[9]高晓容.东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评估研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2012.
[10]单琨.玉米干旱风险分析:以辽宁省为例[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2010.
[11]田宏伟,李树岩.河南省夏玉米干旱综合风险精细化区划[J].干旱气象,2016,34(5):852-859.
[12]王莺,张强,韩兰英.基于信息扩散理论的中国南方水旱灾害风险特征[J].干旱气象,2016,34(6):919-926.
[13]李帅,王晾晾,陈莉,等.黑龙江省玉米低温冷害风险综合评估模型研究[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(4):635-643.
[14]李晓,何鹏,林正雨,等.农业干旱灾害风险评价与风险区划研究:以川南地区为例[J].农业技术经济,2014(9):116-121.
[15]张星,张春桂,吴菊薪.农业气象灾害综合评价中权重确定方法的研究[J].中国农学通报,2008,24(11):448-452.
[16]张继权,严登华,王春乙,等.辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险评价与风险区划研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2012,32(3):300-306.
[17]李军玲,张弘,曹淑超.基于GIS的河南省冬小麦晚霜冻风险评估与区划[J].干旱气象,2015,33(1):45-51.
[18]乌兰,王海梅,刘昊.内蒙古牧区干旱灾害风险分布特征及区划[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):1070-1076.
[19]李丹,李云鹏,刘朋涛.内蒙古近30 a气象灾害时空变化特征[J].干旱气象,2016,34(4):663-669.
[20]徐磊,张峭.中国农业巨灾风险评估方法研究[J].中国农业科学,2011,44(9):1945-1952.
[21]霍治国,李世奎,王素艳,等.主要农业气象灾害风险评估技术及其应用研究[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(6):692-703.
[22]蒲欣冬,蔺雪芹.区域经济差异变动的研究方法在城市经济区划分中的应用:以甘肃省为例[J].城市发展研究,2009,16(4):164-167.
[23]房世波.分离趋势产量和气候产量的方法探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(6):13-18.
[24]薛昌颖,霍治国,李世奎,等.华北北部冬小麦干旱和产量灾损的风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):131-139.
[25]李世奎,霍治国,王道龙,等.中国农业灾害风险评价与对策[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
[26]秦建侯,邓勃,王小芹.分析测试数据统计处理中计算机的应用[M].北京:化学工业出版社,1990.
[27]邵晓梅,刘劲松,许月卿.河北省旱涝指标的确定及其时空分布特征研究[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(4):133-136.
[28]陈家金,张春桂,王加义,等.福建省粮食产量气象灾害风险评估[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(10):277-281.
[29]姚小英,吴丽,田广旭,等.甘肃旱作区玉米近40年干旱影响评估[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(5):192-196.
[2]周广胜,何奇瑾,汲玉河.适应气候变化的国际行动和农业措施研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(5):527-533.
[3]Tao F, Yokozawa M, Xu Y, et al. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981—2000[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2006,138(1/4):82-92.
[4]张强,陈丽华,王润元,等.气候变化与西北地区粮食和食品安全[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):509-513.
[5]程静.农业旱灾脆弱性及其风险管理研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2011.
[6]白月明,刘玲,王瑜莎.气候变化背景下中国西北地区作物干旱灾损评估技术:以甘肃省春玉米为例[J].科技导报,2012,30(19):28-33.
[7]路立平,赵化春,赵娜,等.世界玉米产业现状及发展前景[J].玉米科学,2006,14(5):149-151,156.
[8]李明.世界玉米生产回顾和展望[J].玉米科学,2010,18(3):165-169.
[9]高晓容.东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评估研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2012.
[10]单琨.玉米干旱风险分析:以辽宁省为例[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2010.
[11]田宏伟,李树岩.河南省夏玉米干旱综合风险精细化区划[J].干旱气象,2016,34(5):852-859.
[12]王莺,张强,韩兰英.基于信息扩散理论的中国南方水旱灾害风险特征[J].干旱气象,2016,34(6):919-926.
[13]李帅,王晾晾,陈莉,等.黑龙江省玉米低温冷害风险综合评估模型研究[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(4):635-643.
[14]李晓,何鹏,林正雨,等.农业干旱灾害风险评价与风险区划研究:以川南地区为例[J].农业技术经济,2014(9):116-121.
[15]张星,张春桂,吴菊薪.农业气象灾害综合评价中权重确定方法的研究[J].中国农学通报,2008,24(11):448-452.
[16]张继权,严登华,王春乙,等.辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险评价与风险区划研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2012,32(3):300-306.
[17]李军玲,张弘,曹淑超.基于GIS的河南省冬小麦晚霜冻风险评估与区划[J].干旱气象,2015,33(1):45-51.
[18]乌兰,王海梅,刘昊.内蒙古牧区干旱灾害风险分布特征及区划[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):1070-1076.
[19]李丹,李云鹏,刘朋涛.内蒙古近30 a气象灾害时空变化特征[J].干旱气象,2016,34(4):663-669.
[20]徐磊,张峭.中国农业巨灾风险评估方法研究[J].中国农业科学,2011,44(9):1945-1952.
[21]霍治国,李世奎,王素艳,等.主要农业气象灾害风险评估技术及其应用研究[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(6):692-703.
[22]蒲欣冬,蔺雪芹.区域经济差异变动的研究方法在城市经济区划分中的应用:以甘肃省为例[J].城市发展研究,2009,16(4):164-167.
[23]房世波.分离趋势产量和气候产量的方法探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(6):13-18.
[24]薛昌颖,霍治国,李世奎,等.华北北部冬小麦干旱和产量灾损的风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):131-139.
[25]李世奎,霍治国,王道龙,等.中国农业灾害风险评价与对策[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
[26]秦建侯,邓勃,王小芹.分析测试数据统计处理中计算机的应用[M].北京:化学工业出版社,1990.
[27]邵晓梅,刘劲松,许月卿.河北省旱涝指标的确定及其时空分布特征研究[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(4):133-136.
[28]陈家金,张春桂,王加义,等.福建省粮食产量气象灾害风险评估[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(10):277-281.
[29]姚小英,吴丽,田广旭,等.甘肃旱作区玉米近40年干旱影响评估[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(5):192-196.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |