太湖蓝藻水华形成的适宜气象指标
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摘要
根据2005—2017年卫星遥感反演的太湖蓝藻水华信息,利用区域气象观测数据分析各类气象因子对太湖蓝藻深水华形成的影响,结果表明:①在日平均气温为0～35℃区间内会出现蓝藻聚集现象,其中最适宜气温区间为15.1～35℃,该区间内累计出现蓝藻水华的面积占比达90%、出现大面积蓝藻水华占比达93%;②在卫星观测到蓝藻前6h,平均风速为0.2～4.8m/s区间内能观测到蓝藻水华,其中最适宜的平均风速区间为0.5～3.4m/s,该区间内蓝藻水华累计出现次数占比达94.7%,大面积蓝藻水华主要出现在平均风速<2.0m/s的情况下,占比89%;③降水总体上呈负效应,但在观测到有大面积蓝藻水华的情况下,前24h有小雨(<10mm)的情形与总降水次数之比达88%,说明小雨的适度扰动有利于形成大面积蓝藻水华;④日照充足有利于蓝藻生长,但并非蓝藻水华形成的必要条件。在此基础上建立的多元回归综合气象指数模型,拟合结果较好,通过了0.001的显著性检验。
According to the information of cyanobacteria bloom on the Taihu Lake retrieved from satellite remote sensing from 2005 to 2017 and the regional meteorological observation data,it is shown that the Taihu Lake cyanobacteria bloom occurred in the daily average temperature range of 0 to 35 ℃,with the high-incidence interval being 15.1 to 35℃,within which the bloom cyanobacterial area accounts for 90%,and the large-scale cyanobacterial bloom(the area of a single cyanobacteria bloom event exceeds 20%of the surface area of the Taihu Lake,468 km~2)accounts for 93%.Within 6 hours before the satellite passing,in the average wind speed being 0.2 to 4.8 m/s,the cyanobacterial bloom can be observed,with the most suitable wind speed range being 0.5 to 3.4 m/s,within which the occurrence number of cyanobacterial bloom accounts for 94.7%.The large-scale cyanobacterial bloom mainly occurred when the average wind speed was 0 to 2.0 m/s,accounting for 89%.The wind direction mainly affects the movement and spatial distribution of cyanobacterial bloom.Precipitation generally has a negative impact on the occurrence and development of cyanobacterial bloom.While there occurred was large-area cyanobacteria bloom,the situation that there was small precipitation(<10 mm)in the first 24 hours accounts for 88%,indicating that the moderate disturbance of light rainfall is conducive to the formation of large-areas cyanobacteria blooms.Sufficient sunshine may be one of the conditions for cyanobacterial bloom,but not a necessary condition.On the basis of this,a multivariate regression comprehensive meteorological index model is established,and the fitting result is good,passed the 0.001-level significance test.
According to the information of cyanobacteria bloom on the Taihu Lake retrieved from satellite remote sensing from 2005 to 2017 and the regional meteorological observation data,it is shown that the Taihu Lake cyanobacteria bloom occurred in the daily average temperature range of 0 to 35 ℃,with the high-incidence interval being 15.1 to 35℃,within which the bloom cyanobacterial area accounts for 90%,and the large-scale cyanobacterial bloom(the area of a single cyanobacteria bloom event exceeds 20%of the surface area of the Taihu Lake,468 km~2)accounts for 93%.Within 6 hours before the satellite passing,in the average wind speed being 0.2 to 4.8 m/s,the cyanobacterial bloom can be observed,with the most suitable wind speed range being 0.5 to 3.4 m/s,within which the occurrence number of cyanobacterial bloom accounts for 94.7%.The large-scale cyanobacterial bloom mainly occurred when the average wind speed was 0 to 2.0 m/s,accounting for 89%.The wind direction mainly affects the movement and spatial distribution of cyanobacterial bloom.Precipitation generally has a negative impact on the occurrence and development of cyanobacterial bloom.While there occurred was large-area cyanobacteria bloom,the situation that there was small precipitation(<10 mm)in the first 24 hours accounts for 88%,indicating that the moderate disturbance of light rainfall is conducive to the formation of large-areas cyanobacteria blooms.Sufficient sunshine may be one of the conditions for cyanobacterial bloom,but not a necessary condition.On the basis of this,a multivariate regression comprehensive meteorological index model is established,and the fitting result is good,passed the 0.001-level significance test.
引文
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[14]刘心愿,宋林旭,纪道斌,等.降雨对蓝藻水华消退影响及其机制分析[J].环境科学,2018,39(2):774-782.
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[18]Webster I,Hutchinson P A.Effect of wind on the distribution of phytoplankton cells in lakes revisited[J].Limnology&O-ceanography,1994,39:365-373.
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[20]武胜利,刘诚,孙军,等.卫星遥感太湖蓝藻水华分布及其气象影响要素分析[J].气象,2009,35(1):18-23.
[21]巫娟,陈雪初,孔海南,等.光照度对水华鱼腥藻细胞比重与藻丝长度的影响研究[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(5):875-879.
[22]Cao C J,Zheng B H,Chen Z L,et al.Eutrophication and algal blooms in channel type reservoirs:A novel enclosure experiment by changing light intensity[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2011,23(10):1660-1670.
[23]段洪涛,张寿选,张渊智.太湖蓝藻水华遥感监测方法[J].湖泊科学,2008,20(2):145-152.
[24]韩秀珍,吴朝阳,郑伟,等.基于水面实测光谱的太湖蓝藻卫星遥感研究[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(6):724-731.
[25]郭鹏,邹春辉,赵学斌.MODIS影像水体监测方法研究进展[J].气象科技,2012,40(6):869-873.
[26]曾宪报.统计权数论[D].大连:东北财经大学,1998.
[27]秦伯强,杨桂军,马建荣,等.太湖蓝藻水华“暴发”的动态特征及其机制[J].科学通报,2016,61(7):759-770.
[28]刘心愿,宋林旭,纪道斌,等.降雨对蓝藻水华消退影响及其机制分析[J].环境科学,2018,39(2):774-782.
[29]陈中赟,黄玲琳.降水对太湖蓝藻水华发生的影响[C]∥中国湖泊论坛,2014.
[30]张海春,陈雪初,李春杰.光照度对蓝藻垂直迁移特性影响研究[J].环境污染与防治,2010,32(5):64-67.
[2]朱广伟,秦伯强,张运林,等.2005-2017年北部太湖水体叶绿素a和营养盐变化及影响因素[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(2):279-295.
[3]O’Neli J M,Davis T W,Burford M A,et al.The rise of harmful cyanobacteria blooms:The potential roles of eutrophicationand climate change[J].Harmful Algae,2012,14:313-334.
[4]秦伯强,王小冬,汤祥明,等.太湖富营养化与蓝藻水华引起的饮用水危机-原因与对策[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(9):896-906.
[5]鲁韦坤,谢国清,余凌翔,等.MODIS遥感监测滇池蓝藻水华分布[J].气象科技,2009,37(5):618-620.
[6]Te S H,Chen E Y,Gin K Y.Comparison of quantitative PCRand droplet digital PCR multiplex assays for two genera of bloomforming cyanobacteria,cylindrospermopsis and microcystis[J].Appl Environ Microbiol,2015,81(15):5203-5211.
[7]Rigosi A,Carey C C,Ibelings B W,et al.The interaction between climate warming and eutrophication to promote cyanobacteria is dependent on trophic state and varies among taxa[J].Limnology and Oceanography,2014,59(1):99-114.
[8]张德林,李军,薛正平.淀山湖蓝藻发生程度气象预测模型[J].气象科技,2012,40(3):481-484.
[9]孔繁翔,高光.大型浅水富营养化湖泊中蓝藻水华形成机理的思考[J].生态学报,2005,25(3):589-595.
[10]Zhang M,Duan H T,Shi X L,et al.Contributions of meteorology to the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms:implications for future climate change[J].Wat Res,2012,46(2):442-452.
[11]Cao H S,Tao Y,Kong F X,et al.Relationship between temperature and cyanobacterial recruitment from sediments in laboratory and field studies[J].Journal of Freshwater Ecology,2008,23(3):405-412.
[12]Xu H,Paerl H W,Qin B Q,et al.Nitrogen and phosphorus inputs control phytoplankton growth in eutrophic Lake Taihu,China[J].Limnology and Oceanography,2010,55(1):420-432.
[13]李亚春,谢小萍,朱小莉,等.结合卫星遥感技术的太湖蓝藻水华形成温度特征分析[J].湖泊科学,2016,28(6):1256-1264.
[14]刘心愿,宋林旭,纪道斌,等.降雨对蓝藻水华消退影响及其机制分析[J].环境科学,2018,39(2):774-782.
[15]Reichwaldt E S,Ghadouani A.Effects of rainfall patterns on toxic cyanobacterial blooms in a changing climate:between simplistic scenarios and complex dynamics[J].Water Research,2011,46(5):1372-1393.
[16]赵孟绪,韩博平.汤溪水库蓝藻水华发生的影响因子分析[J].生态学报,2005,25(7):1554-1561.
[17]王成林,黄娟,钱新.高温微风条件下太湖流域风场时空特征分析[J].湖泊科学,2011,23(1):122-128.
[18]Webster I,Hutchinson P A.Effect of wind on the distribution of phytoplankton cells in lakes revisited[J].Limnology&O-ceanography,1994,39:365-373.
[19]李亚春,谢小萍,杭鑫,等.结合卫星遥感技术的太湖蓝藻水华形成风场特征[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(2):525-533.
[20]武胜利,刘诚,孙军,等.卫星遥感太湖蓝藻水华分布及其气象影响要素分析[J].气象,2009,35(1):18-23.
[21]巫娟,陈雪初,孔海南,等.光照度对水华鱼腥藻细胞比重与藻丝长度的影响研究[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(5):875-879.
[22]Cao C J,Zheng B H,Chen Z L,et al.Eutrophication and algal blooms in channel type reservoirs:A novel enclosure experiment by changing light intensity[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2011,23(10):1660-1670.
[23]段洪涛,张寿选,张渊智.太湖蓝藻水华遥感监测方法[J].湖泊科学,2008,20(2):145-152.
[24]韩秀珍,吴朝阳,郑伟,等.基于水面实测光谱的太湖蓝藻卫星遥感研究[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(6):724-731.
[25]郭鹏,邹春辉,赵学斌.MODIS影像水体监测方法研究进展[J].气象科技,2012,40(6):869-873.
[26]曾宪报.统计权数论[D].大连:东北财经大学,1998.
[27]秦伯强,杨桂军,马建荣,等.太湖蓝藻水华“暴发”的动态特征及其机制[J].科学通报,2016,61(7):759-770.
[28]刘心愿,宋林旭,纪道斌,等.降雨对蓝藻水华消退影响及其机制分析[J].环境科学,2018,39(2):774-782.
[29]陈中赟,黄玲琳.降水对太湖蓝藻水华发生的影响[C]∥中国湖泊论坛,2014.
[30]张海春,陈雪初,李春杰.光照度对蓝藻垂直迁移特性影响研究[J].环境污染与防治,2010,32(5):64-67.
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