1961—2014年贵州省干湿状况时空变化及影响因素分析
|
摘要
[目的]了解贵州省干湿状况变化规律,为农业生产及气象灾害风险预警提供科学依据。[方法]基于贵州省84个气象站点逐日观测数据,利用湿润指数,结合气候变化倾向率、Kring插值法、小波分析和相关分析法分析了1961—2014年贵州省干湿状况时空变化特征,并探究了其变化的影响因素。[结果]54a间贵州省全年、湿季、春季和秋季气候趋于干旱化,干季、夏季和冬季气候趋于湿润化。全年、干湿季,四季的湿润指数变化倾向率空间格局存在一定差异。全年、干湿季、四季存在2～4个不同时间尺度周期振荡,28a是全年、湿季、春季、夏季和秋季湿润指数变化的主要作用周期,17a是干季和冬季主要作用周期。降水量、平均相对湿度是影响贵州省湿润指数变化的主要因素,而平均风速、平均气温、平均水气压、日照时数对湿润指数变化影响较小。[结论]贵州省全年湿润指数下降将增加全省干旱风险,湿季和春季的湿润指数的下降不利于农作物的生长和成熟,夏季湿润指数的上升将增加农作物的洪涝风险。
[Objectives]The purpose of the paper was to understand characteristics of dry-wet condition variation in Guizhou Province and to provide scientific basis for agricultural production and the meteorological disaster risk warning.[Methods]The study analyzed the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of dry-wet conditionfrom 1961 to 2014 by the methods of humid index,inclination rate of climate change,Kringinterpolation,wavelet analysis and correlation analysis based on the daily observation data collected by 84 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province,and explored the potential influencing factors on dry-wet condition alteration.[Results]The climate tended to be drierduring a whole year,wet season,spring,and autumn,while the climatetended to be humid duringdry season,summer,and winter over past 54 years.There were prominent differences in spatial pattern of the change tendency of humid index between the annual,dry season,wet season and four seasons.Two to four different time scales periodic oscillation were noticed in the annual,dry season,wet season and four seasons.The main action cycle in annual,wet season,spring,summer and autumn was 28 years,while it was 17 years in dry season and winter.Precipitation and average relative humidity were determined as the main factors which influenced the variation of humid index in Guizhou Province,while the average wind speed,average temperature,average vapor pressure and sunshine duration demonstrated a relative small effect on humid index.[Conclusion]The decrease of annual humid index in Guizhou Province increase the drought risk in this region.The decrease of humid index in wet season and spring produce negative impact on the growth and maturity of crops,while the increase of humid index in summer.
[Objectives]The purpose of the paper was to understand characteristics of dry-wet condition variation in Guizhou Province and to provide scientific basis for agricultural production and the meteorological disaster risk warning.[Methods]The study analyzed the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of dry-wet conditionfrom 1961 to 2014 by the methods of humid index,inclination rate of climate change,Kringinterpolation,wavelet analysis and correlation analysis based on the daily observation data collected by 84 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province,and explored the potential influencing factors on dry-wet condition alteration.[Results]The climate tended to be drierduring a whole year,wet season,spring,and autumn,while the climatetended to be humid duringdry season,summer,and winter over past 54 years.There were prominent differences in spatial pattern of the change tendency of humid index between the annual,dry season,wet season and four seasons.Two to four different time scales periodic oscillation were noticed in the annual,dry season,wet season and four seasons.The main action cycle in annual,wet season,spring,summer and autumn was 28 years,while it was 17 years in dry season and winter.Precipitation and average relative humidity were determined as the main factors which influenced the variation of humid index in Guizhou Province,while the average wind speed,average temperature,average vapor pressure and sunshine duration demonstrated a relative small effect on humid index.[Conclusion]The decrease of annual humid index in Guizhou Province increase the drought risk in this region.The decrease of humid index in wet season and spring produce negative impact on the growth and maturity of crops,while the increase of humid index in summer.
引文
[1]Sellami H,Benabdallah S,LA Jeunesse I,et al.Quantifying hydrological responses of small Mediterranean catchments under climate change projections[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,543:924-936.
[2]Cassardo C,Park S,Galli M,et al.Climate change over the high-mountain versus plain areas:Effects on the land surface hydrologic budget in the Alpine area and northern Italy[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018,22(6):3331-3350.
[3]胡琦,董蓓,潘学标,等.1961-2014年中国干湿气候时空变化特征及成因分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(6):124-132,315.
[4]刘德坤,王军邦,齐述华.基于湿润指数的近35年青海省干湿状况变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(2):246-250,256,335.
[5]赵志平,关潇,李果,等.近45年来青海三江源区干湿变化的趋势分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(4):148-153.
[6]王跃峰,陈兴伟,陈莹.基于多时间尺度SPI的闽江流域干湿变化与洪旱事件识别[J].山地学报,2014,32(1):52-57.
[7]沙比提,买买提,欢乐希,等.1961-2014年乌鲁木齐地区气候特征及干湿区变化[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):448-455.
[8]张逸飞,张中旺,孙小舟,等.1964-2013年汉江生态经济带干湿气候时空变化分析[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(10):17-23,30.
[9]王亚军,李明启.中国利用树轮资料重建干湿变化研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(11):1397-1410.
[10]吕友,陈能成,陈泽强.GF-1垂直干旱指数的土壤湿度空间格局分析---以秭归县为例[J].测绘科学,2018,43(4):94-99.
[11]刘宇峰,原志华,吴林,等.基于湿润指数的近55年安康地表干湿变化趋势及周期研究[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(3):11-21.
[12]王朕,梁川,张彦南.青藏高原江河源区干湿变化特征及影响因素分析[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(2):12-16.
[13]陈学凯,徐建新,雷宏军,等.贵州省干旱时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].灌溉排水学报,2015,34(8):72-81.
[14]罗青红,宁虎森,陈启民.基于湿润指数的新疆甘家湖地表干湿状况变化趋势[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(5):921-926.
[15]朱大运,熊康宁,肖华.贵州省极端气温时空变化特征分析[J].资源科学,2018,40(8):1672-1683.
[16]李敏敏,延军平,丁彩霞.北方农牧交错带气候变化与旱涝响应特征[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(5):304-308.
[17]郜红娟,韩会庆,罗绪强,等.2011-2050年贵州省降水侵蚀力时空变化特征[J].四川农业大学学报,2016,34(3):342-347.
[18]宋妮,申孝军,陈智芳,等.基于不同数理统计方法的河南省ET0气候影响因素分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(23):145-156.
[19]冯禹,崔宁博,徐燕梅,等.贵州省干旱时空分布特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(8):82-86.
[20]慎东方,商崇菊,方小宇,等.贵州省干旱历时和干旱烈度的时空特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(7):138-143.
[21]王允,刘普幸,曹立国,等.基于湿润指数的1960-2011年中国西南地区地表干湿变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(5):830-838.
[22]苑全治,吴绍洪,戴尔阜,等.1961-2015年中国气候干湿状况的时空分异[J].中国科学(地球科学),2017,47(11):1339-1348.
[2]Cassardo C,Park S,Galli M,et al.Climate change over the high-mountain versus plain areas:Effects on the land surface hydrologic budget in the Alpine area and northern Italy[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018,22(6):3331-3350.
[3]胡琦,董蓓,潘学标,等.1961-2014年中国干湿气候时空变化特征及成因分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(6):124-132,315.
[4]刘德坤,王军邦,齐述华.基于湿润指数的近35年青海省干湿状况变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(2):246-250,256,335.
[5]赵志平,关潇,李果,等.近45年来青海三江源区干湿变化的趋势分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(4):148-153.
[6]王跃峰,陈兴伟,陈莹.基于多时间尺度SPI的闽江流域干湿变化与洪旱事件识别[J].山地学报,2014,32(1):52-57.
[7]沙比提,买买提,欢乐希,等.1961-2014年乌鲁木齐地区气候特征及干湿区变化[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):448-455.
[8]张逸飞,张中旺,孙小舟,等.1964-2013年汉江生态经济带干湿气候时空变化分析[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(10):17-23,30.
[9]王亚军,李明启.中国利用树轮资料重建干湿变化研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(11):1397-1410.
[10]吕友,陈能成,陈泽强.GF-1垂直干旱指数的土壤湿度空间格局分析---以秭归县为例[J].测绘科学,2018,43(4):94-99.
[11]刘宇峰,原志华,吴林,等.基于湿润指数的近55年安康地表干湿变化趋势及周期研究[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(3):11-21.
[12]王朕,梁川,张彦南.青藏高原江河源区干湿变化特征及影响因素分析[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(2):12-16.
[13]陈学凯,徐建新,雷宏军,等.贵州省干旱时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].灌溉排水学报,2015,34(8):72-81.
[14]罗青红,宁虎森,陈启民.基于湿润指数的新疆甘家湖地表干湿状况变化趋势[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(5):921-926.
[15]朱大运,熊康宁,肖华.贵州省极端气温时空变化特征分析[J].资源科学,2018,40(8):1672-1683.
[16]李敏敏,延军平,丁彩霞.北方农牧交错带气候变化与旱涝响应特征[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(5):304-308.
[17]郜红娟,韩会庆,罗绪强,等.2011-2050年贵州省降水侵蚀力时空变化特征[J].四川农业大学学报,2016,34(3):342-347.
[18]宋妮,申孝军,陈智芳,等.基于不同数理统计方法的河南省ET0气候影响因素分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(23):145-156.
[19]冯禹,崔宁博,徐燕梅,等.贵州省干旱时空分布特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(8):82-86.
[20]慎东方,商崇菊,方小宇,等.贵州省干旱历时和干旱烈度的时空特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(7):138-143.
[21]王允,刘普幸,曹立国,等.基于湿润指数的1960-2011年中国西南地区地表干湿变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(5):830-838.
[22]苑全治,吴绍洪,戴尔阜,等.1961-2015年中国气候干湿状况的时空分异[J].中国科学(地球科学),2017,47(11):1339-1348.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |