基于格点数据的华北地区气象干旱特征及成因分析
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摘要
利用1961—2013年华北地区0.5°×0.5°降水和气温格点数据资料,选用标准化降水蒸散指数,分析了华北地区不同时间尺度干旱事件发生的时空变化特征,并从大气环流和全球变化两个方面分析了气象干旱的主要成因。结果表明:(1)华北地区年、春、夏、秋、冬及月尺度上均有干旱发生。夏季干旱最为严重。华北地区以20世纪90年代干旱最为严重,2000年以来的干旱次之。年尺度干旱发生频率呈现北高南低的分布规律,就四季而言,干旱主要发生在河南西北部及东南部、山东半岛西北部、山西、河北中南部及京津冀地区;(2)京津冀地区ENSO事件强度与降水量呈显著的负相关性,强度增大时降水量下降,减弱时降水量上升。整个华北地区ENSO事件强度与气温呈显著的正相关性,强度增大时温度有上升趋势,减小时温度有下降趋势。其中El Niňo对气温有抬升的趋势,La Niňa对气温有降低的趋势。从全球变化方面来看,影响华北地区气象干旱发生的原因主要是快速城镇化和全球变暖。
Based on the data of 0.5°×0.5° precipitation and temperature grids in North China from 1961 to 2013, we selected the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought events at different time scales in North China, and analyzed the main causes of meteorological drought in some aspects according to atmospheric circulation and global changes. The results show that:(1) drought occurred on the annual, spring, summer, autumn, winter and monthly scales in North China, the summer drought was the most serious; the drought in North China was the most severe in the 1990 s, followed by drought since 2000; the frequency of drought on the annual scale showed the distribution pattern of high frequency in the north and low frequency in the south; in the four seasons, the drought mainly occurred in the northwest and southeast of Henan, the northwestern part of Shandong Peninsula, Shanxi, central and southern Hebei, and the Beijing—Tianjin—Hebei region;(2) There was a significant negative correlation between ENSO event intensity and precipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei; when the intensity increased, the precipitation decreased, and when it weakened, the precipitation increased; the intensity of ENSO events in the whole North China region was significantly positively correlated with the temperature; when the intensity increased, the temperature increased, and when the intensity decreased, the temperature decreased; among them, El Niňo had a tendency of temperature rise, and La Niňa had a tendency of temperature decrease. From the perspective of global change, the main causes of meteorological drought in North China were rapid urbanization and global warming.
Based on the data of 0.5°×0.5° precipitation and temperature grids in North China from 1961 to 2013, we selected the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought events at different time scales in North China, and analyzed the main causes of meteorological drought in some aspects according to atmospheric circulation and global changes. The results show that:(1) drought occurred on the annual, spring, summer, autumn, winter and monthly scales in North China, the summer drought was the most serious; the drought in North China was the most severe in the 1990 s, followed by drought since 2000; the frequency of drought on the annual scale showed the distribution pattern of high frequency in the north and low frequency in the south; in the four seasons, the drought mainly occurred in the northwest and southeast of Henan, the northwestern part of Shandong Peninsula, Shanxi, central and southern Hebei, and the Beijing—Tianjin—Hebei region;(2) There was a significant negative correlation between ENSO event intensity and precipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei; when the intensity increased, the precipitation decreased, and when it weakened, the precipitation increased; the intensity of ENSO events in the whole North China region was significantly positively correlated with the temperature; when the intensity increased, the temperature increased, and when the intensity decreased, the temperature decreased; among them, El Niňo had a tendency of temperature rise, and La Niňa had a tendency of temperature decrease. From the perspective of global change, the main causes of meteorological drought in North China were rapid urbanization and global warming.
引文
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[25] 孟万忠,王尚义,赵景波.ENSO事件与山西气候的关系[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(1):258-264.
[26] 李晓燕,翟盘茂,任福民.气候标准值改变对ENSO事件划分的影响[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(1):72-78.
[27] 赵守栋,王京凡,何新,等.城市化对气候变化的影响及其反馈机制研究[J].北京师范大学学报,2014,50(1):66-72.
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[30] 任国玉,张雷,卞韬,等.城市化对石家庄站日气温变化的影响[J].地球物理学报,2015,58(2):398-410.
[31] Merryfield W J.Changes to ENSO under CO2 doubling in a multimodel ensemble[J].Journal of Climate,2006,19(16):4009-4027.
[32] 方长芳.全球变暖对北太平洋年代际变化的影响及可能机制研究[D].山东青岛:中国海洋大学,2010.
[2] 张建云,王国庆,刘九夫,等.气候变化权威报告:IPCC报告[J].中国水利,2008,59(2):38-40.
[3] 王孟和,何桂芳,徐建辉,等.基于GIS的安徽省江淮分水岭区域气象干旱研究[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(4):162-167.
[4] 谭方颖,王建林,宋迎波.华北平原气候变暖对气象灾害发生趋势的影响[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(5):125-131.
[5] Chen Z H,Yang G F.Analysis of drought hazard in north China:distribution and interpretation [J].Natural Hazards,2013,65(1):279-294.
[6] 钱永,张兆吉,费宇红,等.华北平原浅层地下水可持续利用潜力分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,12(3):165-169.
[7] 朱菊艳,郭海朋,李文鹏,等.华北平原地面沉降与深层地下水开采关系[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(3):165-169.
[8] 张庆云,卫捷,陶诗言.近50年华北干旱的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3):307-318.
[9] 陈继祖.河南省区域干旱灾害风险评估[D].郑州:郑州大学,2010.
[10] 吴杨洁.基于SPOT和NOAA数据的河北省干旱遥感监测研究[D].石家庄:河北师范大学,2011.
[11] 周磊,武建军,吕爱峰,等.华北不同地表覆盖类型区干旱演变特征[J].地理研究,2012,31(4):597-607.
[12] 安华.华北地区旱涝时空变化特征及趋势判断[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2013.
[13] 刘文莉,张明军,王圣杰,等.近50年来华北平原极端干旱事件的时空变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2013,33(4):90-95.
[14] 国家气象信息中心.中国地面降水0.5°×0.5°格点数据集(V2.0)评估报告[R].北京:国家气象信息中心,2012.
[15] Liu N,Wang H,Ling T J,et al.The influence of ENSO on sea surface temperature variations in the China seas[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2013,32(9):21-29.
[16] 杨东,王慧,程军奇,等.近50年青海省气候变化特征及其与ENSO的关系[J].生态环境学报,2013,22(4):547-553.
[17] Li Y.Southern Ocean SST variability and its relationship with ENSO on inter-decadal time scales[J].Journal of Ocean University of China,2013,12(2):287-294.
[18] Zhang X L,Xiao Z N,Li Y E.Effects of Indian Ocean SSTA with ENSO on winter rainfall in China[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2014,20(1):45-56.
[19] Vicente-Serrano S M,Beguería,Santiago,et al.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[20] 李伟光,侯美亭,陈汇林,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的华南干旱趋势研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(4):84-90.
[21] 庄少伟.基于标准化降水蒸发指数的中国区域干旱化特征分析[D].兰州:兰州大学,2013.
[22] 王林,陈文.标准化降水蒸散指数在中国干旱监测的适用性分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(2):423-431.
[23] 周丹,张勃,任培贵,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的陕西省近50年干旱特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(4):677-688.
[24] 荣艳淑,余锦华,段丽瑶.20世纪80,90年代华北干旱特征及成因分析[J].高原气象,2007,26(2):319-325.
[25] 孟万忠,王尚义,赵景波.ENSO事件与山西气候的关系[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(1):258-264.
[26] 李晓燕,翟盘茂,任福民.气候标准值改变对ENSO事件划分的影响[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(1):72-78.
[27] 赵守栋,王京凡,何新,等.城市化对气候变化的影响及其反馈机制研究[J].北京师范大学学报,2014,50(1):66-72.
[28] Kalnay E,Cai M.Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate[J].Nature,2003,423(6939):528-531.
[29] 周雅清,任国玉.城市化对华北地区极端气温事件频率的影响[J].高原气象,2014,33(6):1589-1598.
[30] 任国玉,张雷,卞韬,等.城市化对石家庄站日气温变化的影响[J].地球物理学报,2015,58(2):398-410.
[31] Merryfield W J.Changes to ENSO under CO2 doubling in a multimodel ensemble[J].Journal of Climate,2006,19(16):4009-4027.
[32] 方长芳.全球变暖对北太平洋年代际变化的影响及可能机制研究[D].山东青岛:中国海洋大学,2010.
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