南通地区强降雪和积雪深度预报研究
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摘要
为了预防和减轻强降雪过程对设施农业和生产生活可能带来的不利影响,提高预报和服务水平,利用常规高空和地面资料、ECWMF 0.75°×0.75°再分析资料,对南通地区1951年以来共19次区域性暴雪过程从影响系统、大气层积、动力和水汽条件等方面进行分析总结,并以2013年的区域性暴雪为例说明诊断分析和预报过程。结果显示:(1)南通属于北亚热带季风气候,雨或雨夹雪转暴雪过程占多数,判断降雪量要关注转为纯降雪以后的降水量,积雪深度还要注意地表温度的高低,因此必须同时考虑强冷空气南下和强盛暖湿气流北上的综合影响;(2)形成强降雪的天气系统主要包括南北两支西风槽、中低空切变、西南急流和低空冷垫,实例是典型区域性暴雪天气形势;(3)500～850 hPa高度至少有两层强盛的SW急流,强烈辐合上升主要发生在700 hPa及以上高度,为暴雪的形成提供了动力和水汽条件,850 hPa以下为冷垫,850～700 hPa存在逆温,850 hPa气温小于等于-4℃、2 m气温小于等于3℃时降雨向降雪转变,地表温度接近零度后积雪增长明显;(4)南通地区24 h平均SLR(降雪含水比),纯雪过程≥10,雨转雪过程<10、东南部<5,一般可通过850 hPa、2 m气温及地表温度对降水相态转换和SLR做出预判;(5)从历史强降雪中寻找天气形势相似过程,对比层结、动力和水汽条件,然后对相似过程实况进行缩放来推断降水量和积雪深度,也是一种可行的方法。
To prevent and mitigate the possible adverse effects of heavy snowfall on facility agriculture,production and life, and to improve the level of snow forecast, 19 regional snowstorms in Nantong since 1951 were analyzed from impact systems, atmospheric temperature stratification, dynamic and water vapor conditions by using conventional high altitude and surface data and ECWMF 0.75°×0.75° reanalysis data. The diagnostic analysis and forecasting process were illustrated with the regional snowstorm in 2013 as an example.The results showed that:(1) Nantong belonged to the north subtropical monsoon climate, and the process of rain or sleet to snowstorm accounted for the majority; to judge the snowfall, we should pay attention to the precipitation after snowfall, and the surface temperature for estimating the depth of snow cover, therefore, we must consider the comprehensive influence of strong cold air downward and strong warm and humid air flow northward;(2) the synoptic systems of heavy snowfall mainly included two westerly troughs, one in the north and the other in the south, as well as mid-low level shears, southwest jets and low-level cold cushion, the example was a typical regional snowstorm weather situation;(3) there were at least two strong SW jets at 500-850 hPa altitudes, and the strong convergence rise mainly occurred at 700 hPa and above, which provided dynamic and water vapor condition for the formation of snowstorm; the cold cushion was below 850 hPa, and there was a temperature inversion between 850 and 700 hPa; when the air temperature of 850 hPa was ≤-4℃and air temperature of 2 m level was ≤3℃, the precipitation changed to snow, and the snow cover increased obviously after the surface temperature approached zero;(4) the average 24 h SLR(snow to liquid ratio) in Nantong was more than 10 in pure snowfall snowstorm, the process of rain or sleet to snowstorm was less than10, and that in the southeast was less than 5, and the precipitation phase transition and SLR could be generally prejudged by air temperature of 850 hPa, and temperature of 2 m level and surface;(5) it was also a feasible method to find the similar process of weather situation from the historical heavy snowfall, compare stratification, dynamic and water vapor conditions, and then enlarge or reduce the snowfall and snow depth of similar processes to infer precipitation and snow depth.
To prevent and mitigate the possible adverse effects of heavy snowfall on facility agriculture,production and life, and to improve the level of snow forecast, 19 regional snowstorms in Nantong since 1951 were analyzed from impact systems, atmospheric temperature stratification, dynamic and water vapor conditions by using conventional high altitude and surface data and ECWMF 0.75°×0.75° reanalysis data. The diagnostic analysis and forecasting process were illustrated with the regional snowstorm in 2013 as an example.The results showed that:(1) Nantong belonged to the north subtropical monsoon climate, and the process of rain or sleet to snowstorm accounted for the majority; to judge the snowfall, we should pay attention to the precipitation after snowfall, and the surface temperature for estimating the depth of snow cover, therefore, we must consider the comprehensive influence of strong cold air downward and strong warm and humid air flow northward;(2) the synoptic systems of heavy snowfall mainly included two westerly troughs, one in the north and the other in the south, as well as mid-low level shears, southwest jets and low-level cold cushion, the example was a typical regional snowstorm weather situation;(3) there were at least two strong SW jets at 500-850 hPa altitudes, and the strong convergence rise mainly occurred at 700 hPa and above, which provided dynamic and water vapor condition for the formation of snowstorm; the cold cushion was below 850 hPa, and there was a temperature inversion between 850 and 700 hPa; when the air temperature of 850 hPa was ≤-4℃and air temperature of 2 m level was ≤3℃, the precipitation changed to snow, and the snow cover increased obviously after the surface temperature approached zero;(4) the average 24 h SLR(snow to liquid ratio) in Nantong was more than 10 in pure snowfall snowstorm, the process of rain or sleet to snowstorm was less than10, and that in the southeast was less than 5, and the precipitation phase transition and SLR could be generally prejudged by air temperature of 850 hPa, and temperature of 2 m level and surface;(5) it was also a feasible method to find the similar process of weather situation from the historical heavy snowfall, compare stratification, dynamic and water vapor conditions, and then enlarge or reduce the snowfall and snow depth of similar processes to infer precipitation and snow depth.
引文
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[19]陈佩君,徐云.南通地区暴雪的天气条件对比分析[J].气象,2003,29(12):45-47.
[20]江苏气象局编著.江苏省天气预报技术手册[M].气象出版社,2017:219-230.
[21]崔锦,周晓珊,阎琦,等.降雪含水比研究进展[J].气象,2017,43(6):735-744.
[2]徐玉貌,刘红年,徐桂玉.大气科学概论[M].南京:南京大学出版社,2002:136.
[3]张人禾,张若楠,左志燕.中国冬季积雪特征及欧亚大陆积雪对中国气候影响[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(5):513-526.
[4]周淑玲,闫淑莲.威海市冬季暴雪的天气气候特征[J].气象科技,2003,31(3):183-185.
[5]王宁,王晓明,王兴国.吉林省近40年初冬大雪天气气候特征及分型预报研究[J].吉林气象,2003(1):6-9.
[6]郑婧,许爱华,刘波,等.江西大雪天气的时空变化及其影响系统分析[J].气象,2010,36(4):30-36.
[7]高松影,李慧琳,杨青,等.丹东地区沿海和山区降雪气候特征[J].气象科技,2014,42(1):131-139.
[8]孟雪峰,孙永刚,姜艳丰.内蒙古东北部一次致灾大到暴雪天气分析[J].气象,2012,38(7):877-883.
[9]侯瑞钦,张迎新,范俊红,等.2009年深秋河北省特大暴雪天气成因分析[J].气象,2011,37(11):1352-1359.
[10]杨晓霞,吴炜,万明波,等.山东省两次暴雪天气的对比分析[J].气象,2012,38(7):868-876.
[11]乔林,林建.干冷空气侵入在2005年12月山东半岛持续性降雪中的作用[J].气象,2008,34(7):27-33.
[12]杨成芳,周雪松,王业宏.山东半岛冷流降雪的气候特征及其前兆信号[J].气象,2007,33(8):76-82.
[13]宋清芝,孙景兰,吕晓娜.河南省一次暴雪伴雷电天气的形成机理[J].气象,2011,37(5):583-589.
[14]白人海,张志秀,高煜中.东北区域暴雪天气分析及数值模拟[J].气象,2008,34(4):22-29.
[15]秦华锋,金荣花.“0703”东北暴雪成因的数值模拟研究[J].气象,2008,34(4):30-38.
[16]章诞武,丛振涛,倪广恒.1956-2010年中国降雪特征变化[J].清华大学学报:自然科学版,2016,56(47):381-386.
[17]王宪彬,辛艳辉,陈艳秋,等.阜新地区暴雪预报方法研究[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(8):199-205.
[18]陈爱玉,李存龙,陈新育.春、冬季暴雪成因对比分析[J].气象,1999,25(11):37-39.
[19]陈佩君,徐云.南通地区暴雪的天气条件对比分析[J].气象,2003,29(12):45-47.
[20]江苏气象局编著.江苏省天气预报技术手册[M].气象出版社,2017:219-230.
[21]崔锦,周晓珊,阎琦,等.降雪含水比研究进展[J].气象,2017,43(6):735-744.
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