海上核应急辐射场计算评估方法
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摘要
源项估算是核应急决策的关键技术之一。针对海上核事故情况下,海面上放射性源项和探测器不断移动这一特殊问题,提出了基于高斯烟团模型和集合卡尔曼滤波的时空修正方法,实现海上核事故源项的反演。以大亚湾核电站假想事故下不同位置处放射性核素浓度作为输入条件,反演得到核事故源强,结果与假想事故源强相差18.4%。
Source term estimation is the primary technology employed for decision-making during nuclear emergencies. Maritime nuclear accidents have the issue of the movement of radioactive source terms and detectors.In this paper, a technical solution is proposed for the source term inversion of a marine nuclear accident, which is based on the time-spatial correction of the Gaussian cloud model and ensemble Kalman filter. Radionuclide concentrations at different positions under the Daya Bay nuclear power plant were incorporated for modeling a hypothetical nuclear accident, and the nuclear accident source strength was thereby obtained through the modified inversion method. The obtained result is found to differ from the hypothetical accident source strength by a margin of 18.4%.
Source term estimation is the primary technology employed for decision-making during nuclear emergencies. Maritime nuclear accidents have the issue of the movement of radioactive source terms and detectors.In this paper, a technical solution is proposed for the source term inversion of a marine nuclear accident, which is based on the time-spatial correction of the Gaussian cloud model and ensemble Kalman filter. Radionuclide concentrations at different positions under the Daya Bay nuclear power plant were incorporated for modeling a hypothetical nuclear accident, and the nuclear accident source strength was thereby obtained through the modified inversion method. The obtained result is found to differ from the hypothetical accident source strength by a margin of 18.4%.
引文
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12张玉珍.基于CALPUFF模型的核电站事故源项大气扩散研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2010.ZHANG Yuzhen.Atmosphere dispersion research of acci‐dent source terms in nuclear power plant on CALPUFF[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Jiao Tong University,2010.
13刘盼,党同强,何鹏,等.核事故下放射性核素多介质耦合弥散模型[J].辐射研究与辐射工艺学报,2016,34(2):020801.DOI:10.11889/j.1000-3436.2018.rrj.34.020801.LIU Pan,DANG Tongqiang,HE Peng,et al.A multimedium coupling dispersion model of radionuclide in a nuclear accident[J].Journal of Radiation Research and Radiation Processing,2016,34(2):020801.DOI:10.11889/j.1000-3436.2018.rrj.34.020801.
2侯闻宇,凌永生,赵丹,等.BP神经网络反演核事故源项中重要参数的研究[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2015,47(5):778-784.DOI:10.16356/j.1005-2615.2015.05.024.HOU Wenyu,LING Yongsheng,ZHAO Dan,et al.Im‐portant parameters in inversion of nuclear accident source term based on BP neural network[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics&Astronautics,2015,47(5):778-784.DOI:10.16356/j.1005-2615.2015.05.024.
3 Rojas-Palma C,Madsen H,Gering F,et al.Data assimilation in the decision support system RODOS[J].Radiation Protection Dosimetry,2003,104(1):31-40.DOI:10.1093/oxfordjournals.rpd.a006160.
4胡丽琴.数字社会环境下的虚拟核电站Virtual4DS[R].中国核能安全技术发展蓝皮书,2018:202-217.HU Liqin.Virtual nuclear power plant in digital society environment virtual4DS[R].Blue Book of Development on China Nuclear Energy Safety Technology,2018:202-217.
5 Wu Y,Chen Z B,Hu L Q,et al.Identification of safety gaps for fusion demonstration reactors[J].Nature Energy,2016,1(12):16154.DOI:10.1038/nenergy.2016.154.
6刘盼.基于大气和水体介质耦合的放射性核素扩散模拟方法研究[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2016.LIU Pan.Research on the simulation method of radionuclides dispersion between atmospheric and aquatic medium[D].Beijing:University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2016.
7胡二邦,陈家宜.核电厂大气扩散及其环境影响评价[M].北京:原子能出版社,1999:78-79.HU Erbang,CHEN Jiayi.Atmospheric diffusion and envi‐ronmental impact assessment of nuclear power plant[M].Beijing:Atomic Energy Press,1999:78-79.
8唐秀欢,李华,包利红.核事故实时释放量集合卡尔曼滤波反演算法研究[J].原子能科学技术,2014,48(增刊):415-420.DOI:10.7538/yzk.2014.48.S0.0415.TANG Xiuhuan,LI Hua,BAO Lihong.Inversion algorithm for nuclear accident instantaneous release quantity based on ensemble kalman filter[J].Atomic Energy Science and Technology,2014,48(Suppl.):415-420.DOI:10.7538/yzk.2014.48.S0.0415.
9陈竟宇,马元巍,王德忠,等.基于安全壳近程探测数据的事故源项反演方法[J].原子能科学技术,2016,50(8):1528-1536.DOI:10.7538/yzk.2016.50.08.1528.CHEN Jingyu,MA Yuanwei,WANG Dezhong,et al.Source term inversion method based on containment short-rang detection data[J].Atomic Energy Science and Technology,2016,50(8):1528-1536.DOI:10.7538/yzk.2016.50.08.1528.
10 Eckerman K F,Ryman J C.External exposure to radionuclides in air,water,and soil[R].Federal Guidance Report No.12,1993,EPA-402-R-93-081.
11吴宜灿,何桃,胡丽琴,等.核与辐射安全仿真系统SuperMC/RVIS2.3研发与应用[J].原子能科学技术,2015,49(增刊):7-15.DOI:10.7538/yzk.2015.49.S0.0007.WU Yican,HE Tao,HU Liqin,et al.Development of virtual reality-based simulation system for nuclear and radiation safety[J].Atomic Energy Science and Technology,2015,49(Suppl.):7-15.DOI:10.7538/yzk.2015.49.S0.0007.
12张玉珍.基于CALPUFF模型的核电站事故源项大气扩散研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2010.ZHANG Yuzhen.Atmosphere dispersion research of acci‐dent source terms in nuclear power plant on CALPUFF[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Jiao Tong University,2010.
13刘盼,党同强,何鹏,等.核事故下放射性核素多介质耦合弥散模型[J].辐射研究与辐射工艺学报,2016,34(2):020801.DOI:10.11889/j.1000-3436.2018.rrj.34.020801.LIU Pan,DANG Tongqiang,HE Peng,et al.A multimedium coupling dispersion model of radionuclide in a nuclear accident[J].Journal of Radiation Research and Radiation Processing,2016,34(2):020801.DOI:10.11889/j.1000-3436.2018.rrj.34.020801.
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