威远页岩气井EUR主控因素量化评价研究
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摘要
针对威远页岩气藏地质条件复杂、增产效果差异大及生产存在多个流动阶段等特点,根据威远页岩气井开发特征,建立了典型气井评价动态模型;从地质条件、工艺措施和生产条件等方面,研究了威远页岩气井估算的最终可采储量(EUR)的主要影响因素;采用蒙特卡罗法和主成分分析法,量化评价了影响EUR的主控因素,量化评价出5个主成分综合反映22项原始指标98.31%的信息,综合威远页岩气田60余口生产井的动静态资料分析,评价认为龙一1a的钻遇长度、压裂效果是影响页岩气井EUR的主要因素。开展精准地质导向提高龙一1a小层钻遇长度及试验新技术、新工艺提高储层改造体积具有重要意义。
In terms of complex geological conditions, different stimulation effects on stimulation and multiple flow stages during the production, a dynamic model was established for shale gas reservoirs in Weiyuan Block. Then, controlling factors on the estimated ultimate recovery(EUR) was studied from the aspects of geological, technological and production conditions, and quantitatively evaluated by means of Monte Carlo method and principal component analysis. Finally, 5 principal components were determined, which comprehensively represent 98.31% information of 22 original indictors. Considering the static and dynamic data of over 60 production wells, the factors influencing the EUR are the drill-in rate and fracturing effect of Long1-1 a. Precise geosteering to increase the drill-in rate, new technology and process are important or improving stimulated reservoir volume(SRV).
In terms of complex geological conditions, different stimulation effects on stimulation and multiple flow stages during the production, a dynamic model was established for shale gas reservoirs in Weiyuan Block. Then, controlling factors on the estimated ultimate recovery(EUR) was studied from the aspects of geological, technological and production conditions, and quantitatively evaluated by means of Monte Carlo method and principal component analysis. Finally, 5 principal components were determined, which comprehensively represent 98.31% information of 22 original indictors. Considering the static and dynamic data of over 60 production wells, the factors influencing the EUR are the drill-in rate and fracturing effect of Long1-1 a. Precise geosteering to increase the drill-in rate, new technology and process are important or improving stimulated reservoir volume(SRV).
引文
[1]谢军,张浩淼,佘朝毅,李其荣,范宇,杨扬.地质工程一体化在长宁国家级页岩气示范区中的实践[J].中国石油勘探,2017,22(1):21-28. Xie Jun, Zhang Haomiao, She Chaoyi, Li Qirong, Fan Yu, Yang Yang. Practice of geology-engineering integration in Changning State Shale Gas Demonstration Area[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2017,22(1):21-28.
[2]梁兴,王高成,张介辉,舒红林,刘臣,李兆丰,等.昭通国家级示范区页岩气一体化高效开发模式及实践启示[J].中国石油勘探,2017, 22(1):29-37. Liang Xing, Wang Gaocheng, Zhang Jiehui, Shu Honglin, Liu Chen, Li Zhaofeng, et al. High-efficiency integrated shale gas development model of Zhaotong National Demonstration Zone and its practical enlightenment[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2017, 22(1):29-37.
[3]冉天,谭先锋,陈浩,王佳,薛伟伟,陈青,等.渝东南地区下志留统龙马溪组页岩气成藏地质特征[J].油气地质与采收率,2017,24(5):17-26. Ran Tian,Tan Xianfeng,Chen Hao,Wang Jia,Xue Weiwei,Chen Qing, et al. Geological features of shale gas accumulation in the Lower Silurian Longmaxi Formation, Southeast Chongqing[J]. Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2017,24(5):17-26.
[4]杜世涛,田继军,李沼鹈,来鹏,马群.准噶尔盆地二叠系页岩气储层特征及潜力区优选[J].特种油气藏,2018,25(2):49-55. Du Shitao, Tian Jijun, Li Zhaoti, Lai Peng, Ma Qun. Permian shale gas reservoir characterization and favorable area Identification in Junggar Basin[J]. Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs, 2018,25(2):49-55.
[5]马新华,谢军.川南地区页岩气勘探开发进展及发展前景[J].石油勘探与开发,2018,45(1):161-169. Ma Xinhua, Xie Jun. The progress and prospects of shale gas exploration and exploitation in southern Sichuan Basin, NW China[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2018,45(1): 161-169.
[6]张小涛,吴建发,冯曦,邓惠,杨济源.页岩气藏水平井分段压裂渗流特征数值模拟[J].天然气工业,2013,33(3):47-52. Zhang Xiaotao, Wu Jianfa, Feng Xi, Deng Hui, Yang Jiyuan. Numerical simulation of seepage flow characteristics of multistage fracturing(MSF) in horizontal shale gas wells[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2013,33(3):47-52.
[7]刘乃震,王国勇.四川盆地威远区块页岩气甜点厘定与精准导向钻井[J]. 石油勘探与开发,2016,43(6):1-8. Liu Naizhen, Wang Guoyong. Shale gas sweet spot identification and precise geo-steering drilling in Weiyuan block of Sichuan Basin SW China[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2016,43(6):1-8.
[8]谢军,鲜成钢,吴建发,赵春段.长宁国家级页岩气示范区地质工程一体化最优化关键要素实践与认识[J].中国石油勘探,2019,24(2): 174-185. Xie Jun, Xian Chenggang, Wu Jianfa, Zhao Chunduan. Optimal key elements of geoengineering integration in Changning National Shale Gas Demonstration Zone[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2019,24(2):174-185.
[9]石强,陈鹏,王秀芹,刘凤新.页岩气水平井高产层段判识方法及其应用——以四川盆地威远页岩气示范区下志留统龙马溪组为例[J].天然气工业,2017,37(1):60-65. Shi Qiang, Chen Peng, Wang Xiuqin, Liu Fengxin. A method for identifying high-productivity intervals in a horizontal shale gas well and its application: A case study of the Lower Silurian Longmaxi Fm in Weiyuan shale gas demonstration area, Sichuan Basin[J]. Natural Gas Industry,2017,37(1):60-65.
[10]刘乃震,王国勇,熊小林.地质工程一体化技术在威远页岩气高效开发中的实践与展望[J].中国石油勘探,2018,23(2):59-68. Liu Naizhen, Wang Guoyong, Xiong Xiaolin. Practice and prospect of geology-engineering integration technology in the efficient development of shale gas in Weiyuan block[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2018,23(2):59-68.
[11]Arps J J. Analysis of decline curves[J]. Transactions of the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers, 1945,160(1):228-247.
[12]Ilk D, Rushing J A , Perego A D, Blasingame T A. Exponential vs. Hyperbolic decline in tight gas sands-understanding the origin and implications for reserve estimates using ARPS’decline curves[C]. SPE 116731, 2008.
[13]Kupchenko C L, Gault B W, Mattar L. Tight gas producing performance using decline curves[C]. SPE 114991, 2008.
[14]Johnson N L, Currie S M, Ilk D, Blasingame T A. A simple methodology for direct estimation of gas-in-place and reservoirs using rate-time data[C]. SPE 123298, 2009.
[15]Valkó P P. Assigning value to stimulation in the Barnett shale: a simultaneous analysis of 7000-plus production histories and well completion records[C]. SPE 119369,2009.
[16]Yu Shaoyong. Best practice of using empirical methods for production forecast and EUR estimation in tight/shale gas reservoirs[C]. SPE 167118, 2013.
[17]虞绍永,姚军.非常规气藏工程方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2013. Yu Shaoyong, Yao Jun. Methods of unconventional gas reservoir engineering[M]. Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press, 2013.
[18]Krunal J. Comparison of various deterministic forecasting technique in shale gas reservoirs[C].SPE 163870, 2013.
[19]Rushing J A, Perego A D, Sullivan R B, Blasingame T A. Estimating reserves in tight gas sands at hp/ht reservoirs: use and misuse of an arps decline curve methodology[C]. SPE 109625, 2007.
[20]Xu Bingxiang, Manouchehr Haghighi, Dennis Cooke, Li Xiangfang. Production data analysis in eagle ford shale gas reservoir[C]. SPE 153072, 2012.
[21]Rasheed O. Bell, Robert A, Wattenbarger. Muti-stage hydraulically fractured shale gas rate transient analysis[C]. SPE 126754, 2010.
[22]Weixu W, Chenggang X, Xing L, Heng W, Cheng N, Lizhi W. Production controlling factors of the Longmaxi shale gas formation - a case study of Huangjingba shale gas field [C]. SPE 10.2118/186874-MS, 2017.
[23]Yitian Xiao, Rainer van den Bosch, Faye Liu. Evaluation in data rich Fayetteville shale gas plays-Integrating physics based reservoir simulation with data driven approaches for uncertainty reduction[C]. IPTC 14940, 7-9 February, 2012.
[24]Zhan J, Lu J, Fogwill A, Ulovich I, Cao J P, He R, et al. An integrated numerical simulation scheme to predict shale gas production of a multi-fractured horizontal well[C]. SPE 10.2118/188873-MS, 2017.
[25]苏云河,路琳琳,张小涛.页岩气井EUR计算方法优选及影响因素分析[C].渗流力学会议,2017. Su Yunhe, Lu Linlin, Zhang Xiaotao. Selection of EUR caculation method and analysis of influencing factors[C]. Seepage Mechanics Conference, 2017.
[26]Su Yunhe, Li Xizhe, Wan Yujin. EUR evaluation workflow and influence factors for shale gas well in Weiyuan gas field, China[R]. EAGE, 2018.
[27]Wan Yujin, Li Xizhe, Su Yunhe.Characteristics and influencing factors of shale gas performance in Weiyuan gas field, China[R]. ACE 2834357,2018.
[28]张晓伟,张静平,于荣泽,姜巍,郭为,王莉.页岩气水平井EUR预测方法分析与应用[J].天然气工业,2017,37(增刊1):66-71. Zhang Xiaowei, Zhang Jingping, Yu Rongze, Jiang Wei, Guo Wei, Wang Li. Analysis and application of shale gas horizontal wells EUR prediction method[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2017,37(S1):66-71.
[29]Wang H. What factors control shale-gas production and production-decline trend in fractured systems: a comprehensive analysis and investigation [C]. SPE 10.2118/179967-PA, 2017.
[2]梁兴,王高成,张介辉,舒红林,刘臣,李兆丰,等.昭通国家级示范区页岩气一体化高效开发模式及实践启示[J].中国石油勘探,2017, 22(1):29-37. Liang Xing, Wang Gaocheng, Zhang Jiehui, Shu Honglin, Liu Chen, Li Zhaofeng, et al. High-efficiency integrated shale gas development model of Zhaotong National Demonstration Zone and its practical enlightenment[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2017, 22(1):29-37.
[3]冉天,谭先锋,陈浩,王佳,薛伟伟,陈青,等.渝东南地区下志留统龙马溪组页岩气成藏地质特征[J].油气地质与采收率,2017,24(5):17-26. Ran Tian,Tan Xianfeng,Chen Hao,Wang Jia,Xue Weiwei,Chen Qing, et al. Geological features of shale gas accumulation in the Lower Silurian Longmaxi Formation, Southeast Chongqing[J]. Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2017,24(5):17-26.
[4]杜世涛,田继军,李沼鹈,来鹏,马群.准噶尔盆地二叠系页岩气储层特征及潜力区优选[J].特种油气藏,2018,25(2):49-55. Du Shitao, Tian Jijun, Li Zhaoti, Lai Peng, Ma Qun. Permian shale gas reservoir characterization and favorable area Identification in Junggar Basin[J]. Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs, 2018,25(2):49-55.
[5]马新华,谢军.川南地区页岩气勘探开发进展及发展前景[J].石油勘探与开发,2018,45(1):161-169. Ma Xinhua, Xie Jun. The progress and prospects of shale gas exploration and exploitation in southern Sichuan Basin, NW China[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2018,45(1): 161-169.
[6]张小涛,吴建发,冯曦,邓惠,杨济源.页岩气藏水平井分段压裂渗流特征数值模拟[J].天然气工业,2013,33(3):47-52. Zhang Xiaotao, Wu Jianfa, Feng Xi, Deng Hui, Yang Jiyuan. Numerical simulation of seepage flow characteristics of multistage fracturing(MSF) in horizontal shale gas wells[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2013,33(3):47-52.
[7]刘乃震,王国勇.四川盆地威远区块页岩气甜点厘定与精准导向钻井[J]. 石油勘探与开发,2016,43(6):1-8. Liu Naizhen, Wang Guoyong. Shale gas sweet spot identification and precise geo-steering drilling in Weiyuan block of Sichuan Basin SW China[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2016,43(6):1-8.
[8]谢军,鲜成钢,吴建发,赵春段.长宁国家级页岩气示范区地质工程一体化最优化关键要素实践与认识[J].中国石油勘探,2019,24(2): 174-185. Xie Jun, Xian Chenggang, Wu Jianfa, Zhao Chunduan. Optimal key elements of geoengineering integration in Changning National Shale Gas Demonstration Zone[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2019,24(2):174-185.
[9]石强,陈鹏,王秀芹,刘凤新.页岩气水平井高产层段判识方法及其应用——以四川盆地威远页岩气示范区下志留统龙马溪组为例[J].天然气工业,2017,37(1):60-65. Shi Qiang, Chen Peng, Wang Xiuqin, Liu Fengxin. A method for identifying high-productivity intervals in a horizontal shale gas well and its application: A case study of the Lower Silurian Longmaxi Fm in Weiyuan shale gas demonstration area, Sichuan Basin[J]. Natural Gas Industry,2017,37(1):60-65.
[10]刘乃震,王国勇,熊小林.地质工程一体化技术在威远页岩气高效开发中的实践与展望[J].中国石油勘探,2018,23(2):59-68. Liu Naizhen, Wang Guoyong, Xiong Xiaolin. Practice and prospect of geology-engineering integration technology in the efficient development of shale gas in Weiyuan block[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2018,23(2):59-68.
[11]Arps J J. Analysis of decline curves[J]. Transactions of the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers, 1945,160(1):228-247.
[12]Ilk D, Rushing J A , Perego A D, Blasingame T A. Exponential vs. Hyperbolic decline in tight gas sands-understanding the origin and implications for reserve estimates using ARPS’decline curves[C]. SPE 116731, 2008.
[13]Kupchenko C L, Gault B W, Mattar L. Tight gas producing performance using decline curves[C]. SPE 114991, 2008.
[14]Johnson N L, Currie S M, Ilk D, Blasingame T A. A simple methodology for direct estimation of gas-in-place and reservoirs using rate-time data[C]. SPE 123298, 2009.
[15]Valkó P P. Assigning value to stimulation in the Barnett shale: a simultaneous analysis of 7000-plus production histories and well completion records[C]. SPE 119369,2009.
[16]Yu Shaoyong. Best practice of using empirical methods for production forecast and EUR estimation in tight/shale gas reservoirs[C]. SPE 167118, 2013.
[17]虞绍永,姚军.非常规气藏工程方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2013. Yu Shaoyong, Yao Jun. Methods of unconventional gas reservoir engineering[M]. Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press, 2013.
[18]Krunal J. Comparison of various deterministic forecasting technique in shale gas reservoirs[C].SPE 163870, 2013.
[19]Rushing J A, Perego A D, Sullivan R B, Blasingame T A. Estimating reserves in tight gas sands at hp/ht reservoirs: use and misuse of an arps decline curve methodology[C]. SPE 109625, 2007.
[20]Xu Bingxiang, Manouchehr Haghighi, Dennis Cooke, Li Xiangfang. Production data analysis in eagle ford shale gas reservoir[C]. SPE 153072, 2012.
[21]Rasheed O. Bell, Robert A, Wattenbarger. Muti-stage hydraulically fractured shale gas rate transient analysis[C]. SPE 126754, 2010.
[22]Weixu W, Chenggang X, Xing L, Heng W, Cheng N, Lizhi W. Production controlling factors of the Longmaxi shale gas formation - a case study of Huangjingba shale gas field [C]. SPE 10.2118/186874-MS, 2017.
[23]Yitian Xiao, Rainer van den Bosch, Faye Liu. Evaluation in data rich Fayetteville shale gas plays-Integrating physics based reservoir simulation with data driven approaches for uncertainty reduction[C]. IPTC 14940, 7-9 February, 2012.
[24]Zhan J, Lu J, Fogwill A, Ulovich I, Cao J P, He R, et al. An integrated numerical simulation scheme to predict shale gas production of a multi-fractured horizontal well[C]. SPE 10.2118/188873-MS, 2017.
[25]苏云河,路琳琳,张小涛.页岩气井EUR计算方法优选及影响因素分析[C].渗流力学会议,2017. Su Yunhe, Lu Linlin, Zhang Xiaotao. Selection of EUR caculation method and analysis of influencing factors[C]. Seepage Mechanics Conference, 2017.
[26]Su Yunhe, Li Xizhe, Wan Yujin. EUR evaluation workflow and influence factors for shale gas well in Weiyuan gas field, China[R]. EAGE, 2018.
[27]Wan Yujin, Li Xizhe, Su Yunhe.Characteristics and influencing factors of shale gas performance in Weiyuan gas field, China[R]. ACE 2834357,2018.
[28]张晓伟,张静平,于荣泽,姜巍,郭为,王莉.页岩气水平井EUR预测方法分析与应用[J].天然气工业,2017,37(增刊1):66-71. Zhang Xiaowei, Zhang Jingping, Yu Rongze, Jiang Wei, Guo Wei, Wang Li. Analysis and application of shale gas horizontal wells EUR prediction method[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2017,37(S1):66-71.
[29]Wang H. What factors control shale-gas production and production-decline trend in fractured systems: a comprehensive analysis and investigation [C]. SPE 10.2118/179967-PA, 2017.
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