长江中下游地区畜禽承载力评估与预警分析
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摘要
为评估长江中下游地区畜禽养殖的环境风险和承载潜力,以《畜禽养殖业产污系数与排污系数手册》和《畜禽粪污土地承载力测算技术指南》中的相关参数为基础,采用2016年的统计数据,测算了长江中下游地区的畜禽粪便总量、耕地畜禽粪污氮磷负荷和耕地畜禽养殖环境容量。结果表明:(1)2015年长江中下游地区畜禽粪便总量为44 784.09万t,单位耕地畜禽粪污氮、磷负荷分别为71.18、12.71 kg/hm~2,畜禽养殖环境容量76 561.60万头猪当量(N)、106 208.50万头猪当量(P),环境风险指数为0.68(N)、0.84(P),养殖风险中等,具有一定发展潜力,增量规模分别为实际养殖总量的47%(N)、19%(P);(2)分省域来看,畜禽粪便资源丰富程度由高到低依次为湖南、湖北、安徽、江西、江苏、浙江和上海;耕地氮负荷由大到小依次为湖南、湖北、江西、安徽、江苏、上海和浙江;耕地磷负荷由大到小依次为湖南、湖北、江西、江苏、安徽、上海和浙江;上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、湖北和湖南畜禽养殖环境风险中等,具有发展潜力,可适当增加养殖数量;江西畜禽养殖环境风险较严重,不具有发展潜力,需要进行总量控制;(3)分市域来看,约59%的市畜禽养殖环境风险中等,约28%的市畜禽养殖环境风险较严重,约10%的市畜禽养殖环境风险较小,仅3%的市畜禽养殖环境风险严重。需按照重点调控区、约束发展区、适度发展区、潜力增长区和重点发展区进行优化,并根据区域种植业结构进行动态调整。
In order to evaluate the environmental risk and bearing potential of livestock and poultry breeding in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, the total amount of livestock and poultry manure, livestock manure nitrogen(N) and phosphorus(P) load on farmland as well as environmental capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River were carefully calculated using the statistical data of 2016. The handbooks of "Pollutant generation coefficient and discharge coefficient in livestock and poultry breeding industry" and "Technical guide for the measurement of soil bearing capacity of livestock and poultry manure" provided the references during the calculation. The results showed:(1) the total amount of livestock and poultry manure in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was 447.84 million tons; livestock manure N and P load on farmland were 71.18 kg/hm~2 and 12.71 kg/hm~2, respectively; the environmental capacity of livestock and poultry breeding was 765.62 million(N) and 1 062.09 million(P), and the environmental risk index was 0.68(N) and 0.84(P). The environmental risk level of livestock and poultry breeding was medium, which indicated there was certain development potential with the incremental scale of 47%(N) and 19%(P) in this area.(2) In terms of the provincial differences, the abundance of livestock and poultry manure followed the order of Hunan > Hubei > Anhui > Jiangxi > Jiangsu > Zhejiang > Shanghai, the nitrogen load of cultivated land had the order of Hunan > Hubei > Jiangxi > Anhui > Jiangsu > Zhejiang > Shanghai, and the order of livestock manure P load on farmland was Hunan > Hubei > Jiangxi > Jiangsu > Anhui > Zhejiang > Shanghai. The environmental risk level of livestock and poultry breeding in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei and Hunan was medium, thus, these provinces had the potential to expand livestock and poultry breeding. In contrast, the environmental risk level of livestock and poultry breeding in Jiangxi was a bit serious, the implement of mass-based controls might be needed.(3) In terms of the city differences, almost 59% of the total cities' livestock and poultry farming environmental risk level was medium, about 28% was a little serious and 3% was serious, while about 10% was less. Thus, it was necessary to optimize the distribution of livestock and poultry breeding based on key control areas, restrained development areas, moderate development areas, potential growth areas and key development areas, and dynamic adjustment according to the regional planting industry structure in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was proposed.
In order to evaluate the environmental risk and bearing potential of livestock and poultry breeding in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, the total amount of livestock and poultry manure, livestock manure nitrogen(N) and phosphorus(P) load on farmland as well as environmental capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River were carefully calculated using the statistical data of 2016. The handbooks of "Pollutant generation coefficient and discharge coefficient in livestock and poultry breeding industry" and "Technical guide for the measurement of soil bearing capacity of livestock and poultry manure" provided the references during the calculation. The results showed:(1) the total amount of livestock and poultry manure in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was 447.84 million tons; livestock manure N and P load on farmland were 71.18 kg/hm~2 and 12.71 kg/hm~2, respectively; the environmental capacity of livestock and poultry breeding was 765.62 million(N) and 1 062.09 million(P), and the environmental risk index was 0.68(N) and 0.84(P). The environmental risk level of livestock and poultry breeding was medium, which indicated there was certain development potential with the incremental scale of 47%(N) and 19%(P) in this area.(2) In terms of the provincial differences, the abundance of livestock and poultry manure followed the order of Hunan > Hubei > Anhui > Jiangxi > Jiangsu > Zhejiang > Shanghai, the nitrogen load of cultivated land had the order of Hunan > Hubei > Jiangxi > Anhui > Jiangsu > Zhejiang > Shanghai, and the order of livestock manure P load on farmland was Hunan > Hubei > Jiangxi > Jiangsu > Anhui > Zhejiang > Shanghai. The environmental risk level of livestock and poultry breeding in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei and Hunan was medium, thus, these provinces had the potential to expand livestock and poultry breeding. In contrast, the environmental risk level of livestock and poultry breeding in Jiangxi was a bit serious, the implement of mass-based controls might be needed.(3) In terms of the city differences, almost 59% of the total cities' livestock and poultry farming environmental risk level was medium, about 28% was a little serious and 3% was serious, while about 10% was less. Thus, it was necessary to optimize the distribution of livestock and poultry breeding based on key control areas, restrained development areas, moderate development areas, potential growth areas and key development areas, and dynamic adjustment according to the regional planting industry structure in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was proposed.
引文
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[7] 阎波杰,赵春江,潘瑜春,等.大兴区农用地畜禽粪便氮负荷估算及污染风险评价[J].环境科学,2010,31(2):437-443.YAN B J,ZHAO C J,PAN Y C ,et al.Estimation of livestock manure nitrogen load and pollution risk evaluation of farmland in Daxing District[J].Environmental Science,2010,31(2):437-443.
[8] 沈根祥,汪雅谷,袁大伟.上海市郊农田畜禽粪便负荷量及其警报与分级[J].上海农业学报,1994(S1):6-11.SHEN G X,WANG Y G,YUAN D W.Loading amounts of animal feces and their alarming values and classification grades in Shanghai suburbs[J].Acta Agriculturae Shanghai,1994(S1):6-11.
[9] 陈天宝,万昭军,付茂忠,等.基于氮素循环的耕地畜禽承载能力评估模型建立与应用[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(2):191-195.CHEN T B,WAN Z J,FU M Z,et al.Modeling and application of livestock supporting capacity estimation of cropland based on nitrogen cycling in southwest China[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2012,28(2):191-195.
[10] 潘瑜春,孙超,刘玉,等.基于土地消纳粪便能力的畜禽养殖承载力[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(4):232-239.PAN Y C,SUN C,LIU Y,et al.Carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding based on feces disposal volume of land[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2015,31(4):232-239.
[11] 易秀,叶凌枫,刘意竹,等.陕西省畜禽粪便负荷量估算及环境承受程度风险评价[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(3):205-210.YI X,YE L F,LIU Y Z,et al.Estimations of livestock manure load and risk assessment of environmental tolerance in Shaanxi Province[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2015,33(3):205-210.
[12] 王滢,罗建美,宋海鸥,等.秦皇岛市畜禽粪便农田负荷量估算及环境风险评价[J].家畜生态学报,2017,38(6):50-54.WANG Y,LUO J M,SONG H O,et al.Assessment of load capacity for livestock manure and environmental risk in Qinhuangdao[J].Journal of Domestic Animal Ecology,2017,38(6):50-54.
[13] 王亚娟,刘小鹏.宁夏农地畜禽粪便负荷及环境风险评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(8):115-119.WANG Y J,LIU X P.Livestock manure load for farmland and the environmental risk assessment in Ningxia[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(8):115-119.
[14] 张乃弟,沙茜.土地消纳畜禽粪污容量的初步分析[J].环境科学与技术,2011,34(S1):128-130,242.
[15] 潘丹.鄱阳湖生态经济区畜禽养殖土壤环境承载力及污染风险研究[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(2):254-259.PAN D.Environment carrying capacity and pollution risk of livestock breeding in ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,36(2):254-259.
[16] 陈斌玺,刘俊专,吴银宝,等.海南省农地土壤畜禽粪便承载力和养殖环境容量分析[J].家畜生态学报,2012,33(6):78-84.CHEN B X,LIU J Z,WU Y B,et al.Analysis of livestock manure carrying capacity of farmland soil and environmental capacity for livestock cultivation in Hainan Province[J].Acta Ecologiae Animalis Domastici,2012,33(6):78-84.
[17] 史瑞祥,薛科社,周振亚.基于耕地消纳的畜禽粪便环境承载力分析——以安康市为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(6):55-62.SHI R X,XUE K S,ZHOU Z Y.Analysis on the environmental bearing capacity of livestock and poultry breeding based on land consumptive:A case of Ankang City[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(6):55-62.
[18] 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,环境保护部南京环境科学研究所.第一次全国污染源普查——畜禽养殖业源产排污系数手册[Z].2009.
[19] 农业部办公厅.关于印发《畜禽粪污土地承载力测算技术指南》的通知:农办牧[2018]1号[EB/OL].2018-01-22.http://www.moa.gov.cn/gk/tzgg_1/tfw/201801/t20180122_6135486.htm.
[20] 农业部畜牧业司.农业部关于促进南方水网地区生猪养殖布局调整优化的指导意见:农牧发[2015]11号[EB/OL].2015-11-27.http://www.moa.gov.cn/govpublic/XMYS/201511/t20151127_4917216.htm.
[21] 国家环保总局.关于减免家禽业排污费等有关问题的通知:环发[2004]43号[EB/OL].2004-03-15.http://www.zhb.gov.cn/gkml/zj/wj/200910/t20091022_172271.htm.
[22] 国家环境保护总局自然生态保护司.全国规模化畜禽养殖业污染情况调查及防治对策[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2002.
[2] 王方浩,马文奇,窦争霞,等.中国畜禽粪便产生量估算及环境效应[J].中国环境科学,2006(5):614-617.WANG F H,MA W Q,DOU Z X,et al.The estimation of the production amount of animal manure and its environmental effect in China[J].China Environmental Science,2006(5):614-617.
[3] 耿维,胡林,崔建宇,等.中国区域畜禽粪便能源潜力及总量控制研究[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(1):171-179.GENG W,HU L,CUI J Y,et al.Biogas energy potential for livestock manure and gross control of animal feeding in region level of China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2013,29(1):171-179.(in Chinese with English abstract).
[4] 朱建春,张增强,樊志民,等.中国畜禽粪便的能源潜力与氮磷耕地负荷及总量控制[J].农业环境科学学报,2014,33(3):435-445.ZHU J C,ZHANG Z Q,FAN Z M,et al.Biogas Potential,Cropland Load and Total Amount Control of Animal Manure in China[J].Journal of Agro-Environment Science,2014,33(3):435-445.
[5] 姚升,王光宇.基于分区视角的畜禽养殖粪便农田负荷量估算及预警分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2016(1):72-84,130.YAO S,WANG G Y.Study on estimation and warning of farmland load of livestock and poultry-based on zoning perspective[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition) ,2014,33(3):435-445.
[6] 段勇,张玉珍,李延风,等.闽江流域畜禽粪便的污染负荷及其环境风险评价[J].生态与农村环境学报,2007(3):55-59.DUAN Y,ZHANG Y Z,LI Y F,et al.Pollution load and environmental risk assessment of livestock manure in Minjiang River valley[J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2007(3):55-59.
[7] 阎波杰,赵春江,潘瑜春,等.大兴区农用地畜禽粪便氮负荷估算及污染风险评价[J].环境科学,2010,31(2):437-443.YAN B J,ZHAO C J,PAN Y C ,et al.Estimation of livestock manure nitrogen load and pollution risk evaluation of farmland in Daxing District[J].Environmental Science,2010,31(2):437-443.
[8] 沈根祥,汪雅谷,袁大伟.上海市郊农田畜禽粪便负荷量及其警报与分级[J].上海农业学报,1994(S1):6-11.SHEN G X,WANG Y G,YUAN D W.Loading amounts of animal feces and their alarming values and classification grades in Shanghai suburbs[J].Acta Agriculturae Shanghai,1994(S1):6-11.
[9] 陈天宝,万昭军,付茂忠,等.基于氮素循环的耕地畜禽承载能力评估模型建立与应用[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(2):191-195.CHEN T B,WAN Z J,FU M Z,et al.Modeling and application of livestock supporting capacity estimation of cropland based on nitrogen cycling in southwest China[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2012,28(2):191-195.
[10] 潘瑜春,孙超,刘玉,等.基于土地消纳粪便能力的畜禽养殖承载力[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(4):232-239.PAN Y C,SUN C,LIU Y,et al.Carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding based on feces disposal volume of land[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2015,31(4):232-239.
[11] 易秀,叶凌枫,刘意竹,等.陕西省畜禽粪便负荷量估算及环境承受程度风险评价[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(3):205-210.YI X,YE L F,LIU Y Z,et al.Estimations of livestock manure load and risk assessment of environmental tolerance in Shaanxi Province[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2015,33(3):205-210.
[12] 王滢,罗建美,宋海鸥,等.秦皇岛市畜禽粪便农田负荷量估算及环境风险评价[J].家畜生态学报,2017,38(6):50-54.WANG Y,LUO J M,SONG H O,et al.Assessment of load capacity for livestock manure and environmental risk in Qinhuangdao[J].Journal of Domestic Animal Ecology,2017,38(6):50-54.
[13] 王亚娟,刘小鹏.宁夏农地畜禽粪便负荷及环境风险评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(8):115-119.WANG Y J,LIU X P.Livestock manure load for farmland and the environmental risk assessment in Ningxia[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(8):115-119.
[14] 张乃弟,沙茜.土地消纳畜禽粪污容量的初步分析[J].环境科学与技术,2011,34(S1):128-130,242.
[15] 潘丹.鄱阳湖生态经济区畜禽养殖土壤环境承载力及污染风险研究[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(2):254-259.PAN D.Environment carrying capacity and pollution risk of livestock breeding in ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,36(2):254-259.
[16] 陈斌玺,刘俊专,吴银宝,等.海南省农地土壤畜禽粪便承载力和养殖环境容量分析[J].家畜生态学报,2012,33(6):78-84.CHEN B X,LIU J Z,WU Y B,et al.Analysis of livestock manure carrying capacity of farmland soil and environmental capacity for livestock cultivation in Hainan Province[J].Acta Ecologiae Animalis Domastici,2012,33(6):78-84.
[17] 史瑞祥,薛科社,周振亚.基于耕地消纳的畜禽粪便环境承载力分析——以安康市为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(6):55-62.SHI R X,XUE K S,ZHOU Z Y.Analysis on the environmental bearing capacity of livestock and poultry breeding based on land consumptive:A case of Ankang City[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(6):55-62.
[18] 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,环境保护部南京环境科学研究所.第一次全国污染源普查——畜禽养殖业源产排污系数手册[Z].2009.
[19] 农业部办公厅.关于印发《畜禽粪污土地承载力测算技术指南》的通知:农办牧[2018]1号[EB/OL].2018-01-22.http://www.moa.gov.cn/gk/tzgg_1/tfw/201801/t20180122_6135486.htm.
[20] 农业部畜牧业司.农业部关于促进南方水网地区生猪养殖布局调整优化的指导意见:农牧发[2015]11号[EB/OL].2015-11-27.http://www.moa.gov.cn/govpublic/XMYS/201511/t20151127_4917216.htm.
[21] 国家环保总局.关于减免家禽业排污费等有关问题的通知:环发[2004]43号[EB/OL].2004-03-15.http://www.zhb.gov.cn/gkml/zj/wj/200910/t20091022_172271.htm.
[22] 国家环境保护总局自然生态保护司.全国规模化畜禽养殖业污染情况调查及防治对策[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2002.
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