1960—2015年山西省“数九”时节气温时空变化特征
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摘要
基于山西省24个气象站点1960—2016年逐日最高、最低、平均气温数据,运用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了山西省近56 a"数九"时节气温的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)近56 a山西"数九"时节气温均呈上升趋势,其中平均最高气温上升趋势最大,约为0.5℃·(10 a)~(-1)。就平均气温变化而言,"五九"变化趋势最大,约为0.703℃·(10 a)~(-1),就分布而言,"四九"值最低,"五九"开始回暖,"六九"回暖幅度最大。20世纪90年代前后各"九"各项平均气温对比发现,最低值延后,回暖时间提前,"数九"冷期缩短。(2)"数九"时节气温高值区主要集中在晋南山间盆地、河谷区,以运城盆地最为明显,低值区主要分布于以晋东北五台山为中心的山地丘陵区,增温幅度分布情况大致与此相反。(3)在1990年左右气温均出现暖突变,平均最高气温突变前后变化最大,约为1.73℃。(4)气温周期变化明显,均存在4～8 a短时间尺度周期。本研究填补山西省对"数九"时节气温变化研究的空白,为山西省气候资源评价和农业生产布局提供科学依据。
In recent years,global climate change as a hot topic is being widely concerned. Air temperature,one of the important climate factors,has a strong influence on production and living in the world.The past studying on climate change indicated that air temperature variation in China had remarkable periodicity,spatial differentiation and abrupt change from time perspective.There are some researches on temporal and spatial variations of air temperature in Shanxi Province,which is a typical inland province of China.But those works normally focus on analyzing the air temperature data in a fixed time scale such as year,season,month etc.Maybe it is useful in understanding the characteristic of air temperature variation from a rather macroscopic perspective.However,few studies on climate in Shanxi province concern the temporal and spatial variations of air temperature in a distinct time or a special season."Jiu" means nine days in the traditional Chinese calendar and has a long history for traditional agricultural production and daily life in China.It begins from the winter solstice and ends after eighty one days and then is divided as nine "Jiu" periods.In China,the "Jiu" periods are the coldest days of the whole year.Based on daily air temperature data from 24 meteorological stations in Shanxi province from 1960 to 2016,this study used the methods of the linear tendency estimation,Mann-Kendall nonparametric test,and Morlet wavelet analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of air temperature during the "Jiu" periods for the past 56 years.The results indicate the following conclusions:(1) The air temperature in the "Jiu" periods shows an increasing variation in the past 56 years,especially the mean maximum temperature was increased by 0.5 ℃·(10 a)~(-1).From time perspective,the fourth "Jiu" period had the lowest temperature,the temperature started to increase from the fifth "Jiu" period with a sharp warming in the sixth period.After 1990,the number of cold days during the "Jiu" periods became smaller.(2) The higher temperature usually appeared at the basin and river valley of South Shanxi like Yuncheng Basin,and the lower temperature normally happened in the mountain and hill regions of Northeast Shanxi like Wutai Mountain.But the distribution of the regions about the temperature increase range at the same time displayed a reverse variation.(3) After 1990,the air temperature during the "Jiu" periods presented a warm abrupt change,particularly the mean maximum temperature being increased by 1.73 ℃.(4) There is a distinct air temperature cycle in this area with a 4～8 years cycling period.This study provided additional information for the evaluation of climate resource and distribution of agricultural production in this area by covering the special "Jiu" periods.
In recent years,global climate change as a hot topic is being widely concerned. Air temperature,one of the important climate factors,has a strong influence on production and living in the world.The past studying on climate change indicated that air temperature variation in China had remarkable periodicity,spatial differentiation and abrupt change from time perspective.There are some researches on temporal and spatial variations of air temperature in Shanxi Province,which is a typical inland province of China.But those works normally focus on analyzing the air temperature data in a fixed time scale such as year,season,month etc.Maybe it is useful in understanding the characteristic of air temperature variation from a rather macroscopic perspective.However,few studies on climate in Shanxi province concern the temporal and spatial variations of air temperature in a distinct time or a special season."Jiu" means nine days in the traditional Chinese calendar and has a long history for traditional agricultural production and daily life in China.It begins from the winter solstice and ends after eighty one days and then is divided as nine "Jiu" periods.In China,the "Jiu" periods are the coldest days of the whole year.Based on daily air temperature data from 24 meteorological stations in Shanxi province from 1960 to 2016,this study used the methods of the linear tendency estimation,Mann-Kendall nonparametric test,and Morlet wavelet analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of air temperature during the "Jiu" periods for the past 56 years.The results indicate the following conclusions:(1) The air temperature in the "Jiu" periods shows an increasing variation in the past 56 years,especially the mean maximum temperature was increased by 0.5 ℃·(10 a)~(-1).From time perspective,the fourth "Jiu" period had the lowest temperature,the temperature started to increase from the fifth "Jiu" period with a sharp warming in the sixth period.After 1990,the number of cold days during the "Jiu" periods became smaller.(2) The higher temperature usually appeared at the basin and river valley of South Shanxi like Yuncheng Basin,and the lower temperature normally happened in the mountain and hill regions of Northeast Shanxi like Wutai Mountain.But the distribution of the regions about the temperature increase range at the same time displayed a reverse variation.(3) After 1990,the air temperature during the "Jiu" periods presented a warm abrupt change,particularly the mean maximum temperature being increased by 1.73 ℃.(4) There is a distinct air temperature cycle in this area with a 4～8 years cycling period.This study provided additional information for the evaluation of climate resource and distribution of agricultural production in this area by covering the special "Jiu" periods.
引文
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[6] JONES P D,BRIFFA K R.Global surface air temperature variations during the twentieth century:Part 1,spatial,temporal and seasonal details[J].Holocene,1992,2(2):165-179.
[7] 周鑫.中国气温的年际-年代际变化特征及其模拟检验研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.[ZHOU Xin.Analysis on interannual and interdecadal variability of temperature over China and its simulation[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2013.]
[8] 韩翠华,郝志新,郑景云.1951—2010年中国气温变化分区及其区域特征[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):887-896.[HAN Cuihua,HAO Zhixin,ZHENG Jingyun.Regionalization of temperature changes in China and characteristics of temperature in different regions during 1951—2010[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(6):887-896.]
[9] 梁苏洁.近50年中国冬季气温和冬季风以及区域环流的年代际变化研究[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2014.[LIANG Sujie.Analysis of the interdecadal changes of the wintertime surface air temperature and winter monsoon over China mainland and regional atmospheric circulation characteristics during 1960—2013[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,2014.]
[10] 赵健,任周鹏,王劲峰,等.1961—2013年东北与华北气温变化速度空差异[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(7):909-914.[ZHAO Jian,REN Zhoupeng,WANG Jinfeng,et al.Spatial difference in the velocity of temperature change in Northeast China and North China from 1961 to 2013[J].Journal of Geo-information Science,2017,19(7):909-914.]
[11] 王澄海,李健,许晓光.中国近50年气温变化准3年周期的普遍性及未来的可能变化趋势[J].高原气象,2012,31(1):126-136.[WANG Chenghai,LI Jian,XU Xiaoguang.Universality of quasi-3-year period of temperature in last 50 year and change in next 20 years in China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2012,31(1):126-136.]
[12] 刘飞.基于GIS和多元统计方法的中国大陆气温时空变化研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2015.[LIU Fei.Temporal-spatial variations of temperature in Chinese inland based on GIS and multivariate statistical method[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2015.]
[13] 张一驰,吴凯,于静洁,等.华北地区1951—2009年气温、降水变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(11):1930-1941.[ZHANG Yichi,WU Kai,YU Jingjie,et al.Characteristics of precipitation and air temperature variation during 1951—2009 in North China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(11):1930-1941.]
[14] 张丽花,延军平,陈利民.近52 a山西气温变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2014,31(6):1068-1072.[ZHANG Lihua,YAN Junping,CHEN Limin.Temperature variation characteristics in Shanxi in recent 52 years[J].Arid Zone Research,2014,31(6):1068-1072.]
[15] 苗爱梅,武捷,贾利冬.1958—2008年山西气温变化的特征及趋势研究[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(3):264-272.[MIAO Aimei,WU Jie,JIA Lidong.The research of air temperature variation characteristics and trend during 1958—2008[J].Advances in Earth Science,2010,25(3):264-272.]
[16] 张莉秋,张红,李皎,等.晋北沙漠化地区1980—2014年的气候变化[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(4):1116-1125.[ZHANG Liqiu,ZHANG Hong,LI Jiao,et al.Climate change in sandy desertification area of the Northern Shanxi from 1980 to 2014[J].Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(4):1116-1125.]
[17] 瞿中友,梁丽君.晋中地区近40年气象要素变化特征分析[J].现代农业科技,2015,(22):215-255.[ZHAI Zhongyou,LIANG Lijun.Analysis on the change characteristics of meteorological elements in the Jinzhong region in recent 40 years[J].Modern Agricultural Science and Technology,2015,(22):215-255.]
[18] 高文华,李忠勤,张明军,等.山西晋南地区近56 a的气候变化特征、突变与周期分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(7):124-127.[GAO Wenhua,LI Zhongqin,ZHANG Mingjun,et al.Characteristics and analysis of abrupt and cyclic climate changes in the southern Shanxi Province in recent 56 years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011,25(7):124-127.]
[19] 《中国自然地理》编写组.中国自然地理[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1984:237-251.[The compiling group of Chinese physical geography.Chinese physical geography[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,1984:237-251.]
[20] 编写委员会.第三次气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京:科技出版社,2015.[Preparing Committee.Third national assessment report on climate change[M].Beijing:Science and Technology Press,2015.]
[21] 符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.[FU Congbin,WANG Qiang.The definition and detection of abrupt climatic change[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1992,16(4):482-493.]
[22] 蓝柳茹,李栋梁.西伯利亚高压的年际和年代际异常特征及其对中国冬季气温的影响[J].高原气象,2016,35(3):662-674.[LAN Liuru,LI Dongliang.Interannual and interdecadal anomaly features of Siberian high and their impact on winter temperature of China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2016,35(3):662-674.]
[23] 李慧芳,殷淑燕.不同区域冬季气温与太阳黑子活动的关系[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(2):345-352.[LI Huifang,YIN Shuyan.Relationship between solar sunspots and winter air temperature in different regions of China[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(2):345-352.]
[24] 孟万忠,王尚义,赵景波.ENSO事件与山西气候的关系[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(1):258-264.[MENG Wanzhong,WANG Shangyi,ZHAO Jingbo.Relationship between ENSO events and the climate during 1955—2008 in Shanxi,China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2013,33(1):258-264.]
[2] FOLLAND C K,KARL T R,CHRISTY J R,et al.Observed climate variability and change[C]//HOUGHTON J T,DING Y,GRIGGS D J,et al.Climate change 2001:The scientific basis.Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change(IPCC).Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001:99-181.
[3] RICHARD A K.Yes,it’s been getting warmer in here since the CO2 began to rise[J].Science,2006,312(5782):1854.
[4] KARL T R,KUKLA G,RAZUVAYEV V N,et al.Global warming:Evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1991,18(12):2253-2256.
[5] KARL T R,JONES P D,KNIGHT R W,et al.A new perspective on recent global warming:Asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1993,74(6):1007-1023.
[6] JONES P D,BRIFFA K R.Global surface air temperature variations during the twentieth century:Part 1,spatial,temporal and seasonal details[J].Holocene,1992,2(2):165-179.
[7] 周鑫.中国气温的年际-年代际变化特征及其模拟检验研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.[ZHOU Xin.Analysis on interannual and interdecadal variability of temperature over China and its simulation[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2013.]
[8] 韩翠华,郝志新,郑景云.1951—2010年中国气温变化分区及其区域特征[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):887-896.[HAN Cuihua,HAO Zhixin,ZHENG Jingyun.Regionalization of temperature changes in China and characteristics of temperature in different regions during 1951—2010[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(6):887-896.]
[9] 梁苏洁.近50年中国冬季气温和冬季风以及区域环流的年代际变化研究[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2014.[LIANG Sujie.Analysis of the interdecadal changes of the wintertime surface air temperature and winter monsoon over China mainland and regional atmospheric circulation characteristics during 1960—2013[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,2014.]
[10] 赵健,任周鹏,王劲峰,等.1961—2013年东北与华北气温变化速度空差异[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(7):909-914.[ZHAO Jian,REN Zhoupeng,WANG Jinfeng,et al.Spatial difference in the velocity of temperature change in Northeast China and North China from 1961 to 2013[J].Journal of Geo-information Science,2017,19(7):909-914.]
[11] 王澄海,李健,许晓光.中国近50年气温变化准3年周期的普遍性及未来的可能变化趋势[J].高原气象,2012,31(1):126-136.[WANG Chenghai,LI Jian,XU Xiaoguang.Universality of quasi-3-year period of temperature in last 50 year and change in next 20 years in China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2012,31(1):126-136.]
[12] 刘飞.基于GIS和多元统计方法的中国大陆气温时空变化研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2015.[LIU Fei.Temporal-spatial variations of temperature in Chinese inland based on GIS and multivariate statistical method[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2015.]
[13] 张一驰,吴凯,于静洁,等.华北地区1951—2009年气温、降水变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(11):1930-1941.[ZHANG Yichi,WU Kai,YU Jingjie,et al.Characteristics of precipitation and air temperature variation during 1951—2009 in North China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(11):1930-1941.]
[14] 张丽花,延军平,陈利民.近52 a山西气温变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2014,31(6):1068-1072.[ZHANG Lihua,YAN Junping,CHEN Limin.Temperature variation characteristics in Shanxi in recent 52 years[J].Arid Zone Research,2014,31(6):1068-1072.]
[15] 苗爱梅,武捷,贾利冬.1958—2008年山西气温变化的特征及趋势研究[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(3):264-272.[MIAO Aimei,WU Jie,JIA Lidong.The research of air temperature variation characteristics and trend during 1958—2008[J].Advances in Earth Science,2010,25(3):264-272.]
[16] 张莉秋,张红,李皎,等.晋北沙漠化地区1980—2014年的气候变化[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(4):1116-1125.[ZHANG Liqiu,ZHANG Hong,LI Jiao,et al.Climate change in sandy desertification area of the Northern Shanxi from 1980 to 2014[J].Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(4):1116-1125.]
[17] 瞿中友,梁丽君.晋中地区近40年气象要素变化特征分析[J].现代农业科技,2015,(22):215-255.[ZHAI Zhongyou,LIANG Lijun.Analysis on the change characteristics of meteorological elements in the Jinzhong region in recent 40 years[J].Modern Agricultural Science and Technology,2015,(22):215-255.]
[18] 高文华,李忠勤,张明军,等.山西晋南地区近56 a的气候变化特征、突变与周期分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(7):124-127.[GAO Wenhua,LI Zhongqin,ZHANG Mingjun,et al.Characteristics and analysis of abrupt and cyclic climate changes in the southern Shanxi Province in recent 56 years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011,25(7):124-127.]
[19] 《中国自然地理》编写组.中国自然地理[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1984:237-251.[The compiling group of Chinese physical geography.Chinese physical geography[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,1984:237-251.]
[20] 编写委员会.第三次气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京:科技出版社,2015.[Preparing Committee.Third national assessment report on climate change[M].Beijing:Science and Technology Press,2015.]
[21] 符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.[FU Congbin,WANG Qiang.The definition and detection of abrupt climatic change[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1992,16(4):482-493.]
[22] 蓝柳茹,李栋梁.西伯利亚高压的年际和年代际异常特征及其对中国冬季气温的影响[J].高原气象,2016,35(3):662-674.[LAN Liuru,LI Dongliang.Interannual and interdecadal anomaly features of Siberian high and their impact on winter temperature of China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2016,35(3):662-674.]
[23] 李慧芳,殷淑燕.不同区域冬季气温与太阳黑子活动的关系[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(2):345-352.[LI Huifang,YIN Shuyan.Relationship between solar sunspots and winter air temperature in different regions of China[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(2):345-352.]
[24] 孟万忠,王尚义,赵景波.ENSO事件与山西气候的关系[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(1):258-264.[MENG Wanzhong,WANG Shangyi,ZHAO Jingbo.Relationship between ENSO events and the climate during 1955—2008 in Shanxi,China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2013,33(1):258-264.]
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