全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃目标下长江流域极端降水的变化特征
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摘要
基于区域气候模式COSMO-CLM及5个全球气候模式(GFDL-ESM2M,HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M)1961—2100年逐日降水数据,采用重现期法计算20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量,研究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃目标下长江流域极端降水的变化特征。研究发现:全球升温1.5℃目标下,长江流域20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量分别为78和93 mm,相比1986—2005年将增加10%和9%;空间上表现为中下游普遍增加,最大增幅145%,上游地区则主要表现为减少趋势;全球升温2.0℃目标下,20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量分别为81和98 mm,将较基准期上升14%和15%;中下游极端降水量显著上升,最大增幅约188%,上游成都平原以西以北明显下降;随全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量分别增加4%和6%,中下游较上游增幅更明显,最大增幅136%。因此,将温室气体减排目标控制在1.5℃水平对减缓长江流域尤其是中下游地区极端降水事件影响具有重要的意义。
Based on the daily precipitation grid datasets from one highly-resolution regional climate model(COSMO-CLM) and five Global Climate Models(GFDL-ESM2 M,HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5 A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) for the period 1961 to 2100 over the Yangtze River basin, the extreme precipitation for different return periods(20 and 50 years) are calculated separately by the return period method, and the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River basin under the target of the global warming of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0℃ are analyzed in detail. The research results show that: in the 1.5 ℃ warming period, the 20-year and 50-year extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin are 78 mm and 93 mm, which will increase respectively by 10% and 9%, relative to the reference period(1986—2005). Under the global warming of 1.5 ℃, the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation for different return periods(20 and 50 years) shows an increasing trend in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and the maximum rise is 145%, but the extreme precipitation will decrease over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin. In the 2.0 ℃ warming period, the 20-year and 50-year extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin are 81 mm and 98 mm respectively, which will increase respectively by 14% and 15%, relative to the reference period. There is an obvious increasing trend of extreme precipitation in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and the maximum rise is 188%, but significant decrease is detected on the western and northern part of Chengdu Plain over the upper Yangtze River basin. Compared with the global warming of 1.5 ℃, the 20-year and 50-year extreme precipitation will increase respectively by 4% and 6% over the Yangtze River basin, especially in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River under the 2.0 ℃ warming target, where the biggest increase is 136%.Therefore, controlling greenhouse gas emission reduction targets at 1.5 ℃ level is of great significance to reduce the adverse effects of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin, especially in the mid-lower reaches.
Based on the daily precipitation grid datasets from one highly-resolution regional climate model(COSMO-CLM) and five Global Climate Models(GFDL-ESM2 M,HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5 A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) for the period 1961 to 2100 over the Yangtze River basin, the extreme precipitation for different return periods(20 and 50 years) are calculated separately by the return period method, and the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River basin under the target of the global warming of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0℃ are analyzed in detail. The research results show that: in the 1.5 ℃ warming period, the 20-year and 50-year extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin are 78 mm and 93 mm, which will increase respectively by 10% and 9%, relative to the reference period(1986—2005). Under the global warming of 1.5 ℃, the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation for different return periods(20 and 50 years) shows an increasing trend in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and the maximum rise is 145%, but the extreme precipitation will decrease over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin. In the 2.0 ℃ warming period, the 20-year and 50-year extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin are 81 mm and 98 mm respectively, which will increase respectively by 14% and 15%, relative to the reference period. There is an obvious increasing trend of extreme precipitation in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and the maximum rise is 188%, but significant decrease is detected on the western and northern part of Chengdu Plain over the upper Yangtze River basin. Compared with the global warming of 1.5 ℃, the 20-year and 50-year extreme precipitation will increase respectively by 4% and 6% over the Yangtze River basin, especially in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River under the 2.0 ℃ warming target, where the biggest increase is 136%.Therefore, controlling greenhouse gas emission reduction targets at 1.5 ℃ level is of great significance to reduce the adverse effects of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin, especially in the mid-lower reaches.
引文
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[2] IPCC.Climate Change:synthesis report.Contribution of working groups I,II and III to the Fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.Geneva,Switzerland:IPCC,2014:151.
[3] HUANG Jianbin,ZHANG Xiangdong,ZHANG Qiyi,et al.Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend.Nat.Climate Change,2017,7(12):875-879.
[4] Goswami B N,Venugopal V,Sengupta D,et al.Increasing trend of extreme rain events over india in a warming environment.Science,2006,314(5804):1442-1445.
[5] SU Buda,Kundzewicz Z W,JIANG Tong.Simulation of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin using Wakeby distribution.Theor.Appl.Climatol.,2009,96(3/4):209-219.
[6] 景丞,姜彤,王艳君,等.中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究.气象学报,2016,74(4):572-582.JING Cheng,JIANG Tong,WANG Yanjun,et al.A study on regional extreme precipitation events and the exposure of population and economy in China.Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese),2016,74(4):572-582.
[7] UNFCCC.Decision 1/CP.21//Paris climate change conference.Paris,France,2015.
[8] SUN Wenyi,MU Xingmin,SONG Xiaoyan,et al.Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (C)hina during 1960—2013 under global warming.Atmos.Res.,2016,168:33-48.
[9] 江志红,陈威霖,宋洁,等.7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估.大气科学,2009,33(1):109-120.JIANG Zhihong,CHEN Weilin,SONG Jie,et al.Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2009,33(1):109-120.
[10] 谈丰,苏布达,高超,等.高精度区域气候模式对淮河流域降水的模拟评估.长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(10):1236-1242.TAN Feng,SU Buda,GAO Chao,et al.High-resolution regional climate model (CCLM) for simulation of precipitation in the Huaihe river basin,China.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin (in Chinese),2012,21(10):1236-1242.
[11] FU Guobin,Viney N R,Charles S P,et al.Long-term temporal variation of extreme rainfall events in Australia:1910—2006.J.Hydrometeorol.,2010,11(4):950-965.
[12] 陈活泼.CMIP5模式对21世纪末中国极端降水事件变化的预估.科学通报,2013,58(8):743-752.CHEN Huopo.Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models.Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(12):1462-1472.doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5612-2.
[13] 景丞,陶辉,王艳君,等.基于区域气候模式CCLM的中国极端降水事件预估.自然资源学报,2017,32(2):266-277.JING Cheng,TAO Hui,WANG Yanjun,et al.Projection of extreme precipitation events in China based on regional climate model CCLM.Journal of Natural Resources (in Chinese),2017,32(2):266-277.
[14] 王冀,江志红.近40 a长江中下游极端降水变化特征//中国气象学会2006年年会“气候变化及其机理和模拟”分会场论文集.成都:中国气象学会,2006:22.WANG Ji,JIANG Zhihong.Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in recent 40 years//Chinese Meteorological Society 2006 Annual Meeting of Climate Changes and Its Mechanism and Simulation Branch.Chengdu:Chinese Meteorological Society (in Chinese),2006:22.
[15] 苏布达,姜彤,任国玉,等.长江流域1960—2004年极端强降水时空变化趋势.气候变化研究进展,2006,2(1):9-14.SU Buda,JIANG Tong,REN Guoyu,et al.Observed trends of precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960 to 2004.Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese),2006,2(1):9-14.
[16] 姜彤,苏布达,Marco G.长江流域降水极值的变化趋势.水科学进展,2008,19(5):650-655.JIANG Tong,SU Buda,Marco G.Trends in precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin.Advances in Water Science (in Chinese),2008,19(5):650-655.
[17] 刘俸霞,王艳君,赵晶,等.全球升温1.5 ℃与2.0 ℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征.长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(5):778-788.LIU Fengxia,WANG Yanjun,ZHAO Jing,et al.Variations of the exterme precipitation under the global warming of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ in the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin (in Chinese),2017,26(5):778-788.
[18] 许崇海,沈新勇,徐影.IPCC AR4模式对东亚地区气候模拟能力的分析.气候变化研究进展,2007,3(5):287-292.XU Chonghai,SHEN Xinyong,XU Ying.An analysis of climate change in east Asia by using the IPCC AR4 Simulations.Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese),2007,3(5):287-292.
[19] HUANG Jinlong,WANG Yanjun,Fischer T,et al.Simulation and projection of climatic changes in the Indus River Basin,using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM.Int.J.Climatol.,2017,37(5):2545-2562.
[20] 陶辉,黄金龙,翟建青,等.长江流域气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估.气候变化研究进展,2013,9(4):246-251.TAO Hui,HUANG Jinlong,ZHAI Jianqing,et al.Simulation and projection of climate changes under the RCP4.5 scenario in the Yangtze River Basin based on CCLM.Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis (in Chinese),2013,9(4):246-251.
[21] SU Buda,HUANG Jinlong,ZENG Xiaofan,et al.Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the upper Yangtze River basin.Climatic Change,2017,141(3):533-546.
[22] 景丞,王艳君,姜彤,等.CMIP5多模式对朝鲜干旱模拟与预估.干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(12):95-102.JING Cheng,WANG Yanjun,JIANG Tong,et al.Simulation and estimation of droughts in North Korea by CMIP5 multi-model ensembles.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment (in Chinese),2016,30(12):95-102.
[23] 张飞跃,姜彤,苏布达,等.CMIP5多模式集合对南亚大河气候变化模拟评估及未来情景预估.热带气象学报,2016,32(5):734-742.ZHANG Feiyue,JIANG Tong,SU Buda,et al.Simulation and projection of climate change in the South Asian River Basin by CMIP5 multi-model ensembles.Journal of Tropical Meteorology (in Chinese),2016,32(5):734-742.
[24] SU Buda,HUANG Jinlong,Gemmer M,et al.Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for projected changes of climate in the Indus River Basin.Atmos.Res.,2016,178-179:138-149.
[25] Hempel S,Frieler K,Warszawski L,et al.A trend-preserving bias correction-the ISI-MIP approach.Earth Syst.Dyn.,2013,4(2):219-236.
[26] Stevens B,Giorgetta M,Esch M,et al.Atmospheric component of the MPI-M Earth System Model:ECHAM6.J.Adv.Model.Earth Syst.,2013,5(2):146-172.
[27] 苏布达,姜彤,董文杰.长江流域极端强降水分布特征的统计拟合.气象科学,2008,28(6):625-629.SU Buda,JIANG Tong,DONG Wenjie.Probabilistic characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese),2008,28(6):625-629.
[28] Fisher R A.Theory of statistical estimation.University of Tsukuba,2008:51-65.
[29] GAO Xuejie,SHI Ying,ZHANG Dongfeng,et al.Uncertainties in monsoon precipitation projections over China:results from two high-resolution RCM simulations.Climate Res.,2012,52:213-226.
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