1960～2016年江西省霾日变化特征及气候成因分析
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摘要
利用江西省1960～2016年82个气象站水平能见度、相对湿度和天气现象等资料,重建了江西省霾日序列,分析了江西省霾日数的年际变化特征,并通过霾日数与降水日数、大风日数和静风日数的相关关系,探讨了不同季节霾日数年际变化的气候成因.结果表明:1960～2016年江西省霾日数表现为在1970s有明显偏高、1980年后显著增加趋势(0.53d/a),赣北地区霾日多且增加速率快.四季霾日数均有增加,其中秋季贡献最大(0.21d/a,P<0.001),春季其次(0.12d/a,P<0.001),冬季霾日数最多,但年际趋势并不显著(0.10d/a,P>0.05),夏季年均霾日数较低,增加幅度最小(0.09d/a,P<0.001).过去几十年降水日数减少(-0.26d/a,P>0.05)导致大气湿沉降能力减弱,以及大风日数减少(-0.33d/a,P<0.01)和静风日数增加(1.73d/a,P<0.01)导致大气扩散能力降低,为江西省霾日增加提供了有利气候背景.但主要气候成因因季节不同:春季霾日数增加的主要气候成因是大风日数减少(r=-0.48,P<0.01),与其他要素的关系不显著;夏季亦与大风日数减少显著相关(r=-0.50,P<0.01),同时与静风日数增加显著相关(r=0.37,P<0.05);秋季受大风日数减少、静风日数增加以及降水日数减少共同影响,导致秋季霾日增加速率最快;冬季霾日数仅与降水日数显著相关(r=-0.36,P<0.05),但由于冬季降水日数变化趋势不明显(-0.26d/a,P>0.05),冬季霾日数变化不显著.
Based on horizontal visibility, relative humidity and weather phenomena obtained from 82 meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province from 1960～2016, haze days were reconstructed and the temporal variations were analysed. Additionally, the attributions of the variation were identified according analysis of the correlation of haze days with precipitation days, high wind days and breeze days. The results showed that the haze days had an obvious peak in the 1970 s, followed by an increasing trend since 1980(0.53 d/a, P<0.001). Among the four seasons, increasing haze days in autumn(0.21 d/a, P<0.001) contributed most to the annual increasing rate, followed by spring(0.12 d/a, P<0.001). In winter, although most haze days happened, the increasing trend was insignificant(0.10 d/a, P>0.05). While summer has the least increasing amplitude(0.09 d/a, P<0.001). In the past decades, the reduction of atmospheric deposition ability caused by less precipitation days(-0.26 d/a, P>0.05), and the reduction of atmospheric diffusion ability caused by fewer high wind days(-0.33 d/a, P<0.01) but higher breeze days(1.73 d/a, P<0.01), provided advantages for haze increase. However, the main attribution varied between seasons. The major reason for haze increase in spring was the reduction in high wind days(r=-0.48, P<0.01). While in summer, it had significant correlation with both high wind days(r=-0.50,P<0.01) and breeze days(r=0.37, P<0.05). In autumn, haze increase was affected by fewer high wind days, higher breeze days and less precipitation days, leading to the highest increasing rate among four seasons. In winter, haze days has a better correlation with precipitation days(r=-0.36, P<0.05) whose trend was insignificant(-0.26 d/a, P>0.05). Thus, winter haze days has an insignificant trend during.
Based on horizontal visibility, relative humidity and weather phenomena obtained from 82 meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province from 1960～2016, haze days were reconstructed and the temporal variations were analysed. Additionally, the attributions of the variation were identified according analysis of the correlation of haze days with precipitation days, high wind days and breeze days. The results showed that the haze days had an obvious peak in the 1970 s, followed by an increasing trend since 1980(0.53 d/a, P<0.001). Among the four seasons, increasing haze days in autumn(0.21 d/a, P<0.001) contributed most to the annual increasing rate, followed by spring(0.12 d/a, P<0.001). In winter, although most haze days happened, the increasing trend was insignificant(0.10 d/a, P>0.05). While summer has the least increasing amplitude(0.09 d/a, P<0.001). In the past decades, the reduction of atmospheric deposition ability caused by less precipitation days(-0.26 d/a, P>0.05), and the reduction of atmospheric diffusion ability caused by fewer high wind days(-0.33 d/a, P<0.01) but higher breeze days(1.73 d/a, P<0.01), provided advantages for haze increase. However, the main attribution varied between seasons. The major reason for haze increase in spring was the reduction in high wind days(r=-0.48, P<0.01). While in summer, it had significant correlation with both high wind days(r=-0.50,P<0.01) and breeze days(r=0.37, P<0.05). In autumn, haze increase was affected by fewer high wind days, higher breeze days and less precipitation days, leading to the highest increasing rate among four seasons. In winter, haze days has a better correlation with precipitation days(r=-0.36, P<0.05) whose trend was insignificant(-0.26 d/a, P>0.05). Thus, winter haze days has an insignificant trend during.
引文
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[2]吴兑.关于霾与雾的区别和灰霾天气预警的讨论[J].气象,2005,(4):3-7.Wu D.A discussion on difference between haze and fog and warning of ash haze weather[J].Meteorological Monthly,2005,(4):3-7.
[3]吴兑.霾与雾的识别和资料分析处理[J].环境化学,2008,(3):327-330.Wu D.Discussion on the distinction between haze and fog and analysis and processing data[J].Environmental Chemistry,2008,(3):327-330.
[4]吴兑,吴晟,李海燕,等.以珠三角典型灰霾天气为例谈资料分析方法[J].环境科学与技术,2011,34(6):80-84+88.Wu D,Wu C,Li H,et al.Data analysis method of haze in the Pearl River Delta as an example[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2011,34(6):80-84+88.
[5]Ding Y,Wu P,Liu Y,et al.Environmental and dynamic conditions for the occurrence of persistent haze events in North China[J].Engineering,2017,3(2):266-271.
[6]Shen R,Sch?fer K,Schnelle-Kreis J,et al.Seasonal variability and source distribution of haze particles from a continuous one-year study in Beijing[J].Atmospheric Pollution Research,2018,9(4):627-633.
[7]Wang J,Zhao Q,Zhu Z,et al.Interannual variation in the number and severity of autumnal haze days in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies[J].Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans,2018,84:1-9.
[8]张英娟,张培群,王冀,等.1981~2013年京津冀持续性霾天气的气候特征[J].气象,2015,41(3):311-318.Zhang Y,Zhang P,Wang J,et al.Climatic characteristics of persistent haze events over Jingjinji during 1981~2013[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(3):311-318.
[9]Cao Y,Zhang W,Wang W.Spatial-temporal characteristics of haze and vertical distribution of aerosols over the Yangtze River Delta of China[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2018,66:12-19.
[10]Xiao H,Huang Z,Zhang J,et al.Identifying the impacts of climate on the regional transport of haze pollution and inter-cities correspondence within the Yangtze River Delta[J].Environmental Pollution,2017,228:26-34.
[11]Xu J,Chang L,Yan F,et al.Role of climate anomalies on decadal variation in the occurrence of wintertime haze in the Yangtze River Delta,China[J].Science of The Total Environment,2017,599-600:918-925.
[12]郭婷,朱彬,康志明,等.1960~2012年长江三角洲地区雾日与霾日的气候特征及其影响因素[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(4):961-969.Guo T,Zhu B,Kang Z,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution characteristic of fog days and haze days from 1960~2012 and impact factors over the Yangtze River Delta Region[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(4):961-969.
[13]崔妍,赵春雨,周晓宇,等.东北地区近50年来霾天气气候特征[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(6):1630-1637.Cui Y,Zhao C,Zhou X,et al.Climatic characteristics of haze days in Northeast of China over the past 50years[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(6):1630-1637.
[14]邓学良,石春娥,姚晨,等.安徽霾日重建和时空特征分析[J].高原气象,2015,34(4):1158-1166.Deng X,Shi C,Yao C,et al.Research of reconstruction and characteristics of hazes in Anhui[J].Plateau Meteorology,2015,34(4):1158-1166.
[15]刘端阳,魏建苏,严文莲,等.1980~2012年江苏省城市霾日的时空分布及成因分析[J].环境科学,2014,35(9):3247-3255.Liu D,Wei J,Yan W,et al.Trends of urban haze in Jiangsu Province China over the past 33 years[J].Environmental Science,2014,35(9):3247-3255.
[16]颜娇珑,张武,单云鹏,等.西北东部霾的时空特征与天气特征研究[J].高原气象,2016,35(4):1073-1086.Yan J,Zhang W,Shan Y,et al.Spatio-temporal distribution of aerosol and weather characteristics during haze over the Eastern Northwest China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2016,35(4):1073-1086.
[17]吴兑,吴晓京,李菲,等.1951~2005年中国大陆霾的时空变化[J].气象学报,2010,68(5):680-688.Wu D,Wu X,Li F,et al.Temporal and spatial variation of haze during1951~2005 in Chinese mainland[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2010,68(5):680-688.
[18]高歌.1961~2005年中国霾日气候特征及变化分析[J].地理学报,2008,(7):761-768.Gao G.The climatic characteristics and change of haze days over China during 1961~2005[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,(7):761-768.
[19]宋连春,高荣,李莹,等.1961~2012年中国冬半年霾日数的变化特征及气候成因分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(5):313-318.Song L,Gao R,Li Y,et al.Analysis of China's haze days in winter half year and climatic background during 1961~2012[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2013,9(5):313-318.
[20]尹志聪,王会军,郭文利.华北黄淮地区冬季雾和霾的时空气候变化特征[J].中国科学:地球科学,2015,45(5):649-655.Yin Z,Wang H,Guo W.Climatic change features of fog and haze in winter over North China and Huang-huai Area[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,2015,45(5):649-655.
[21]Zhang Q,Ma Q,Zhao B,et al.Winter haze over North China Plain from 2009 to 2016:Influence of emission and meteorology[J].Environmental Pollution,2018,242:1308-1318.
[22]符传博,丹利,唐家翔,等.1960~2013年华南地区霾污染的时空变化及其与关键气候因子的关系[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(5):1313-1322.Fu C,Dan L,Tang J,et al.Temporal and spatial characteristics of haze days and their relations with climatic factor during 1960~2013 over South China[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(5):1313-1322.
[23]周威,康岚,郝丽萍.1980~2012年四川盆地及典型城市的霾日变化特征分析[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(10):3675-3683.Zhou W,Kang L,Hao L.Characteristic analysis of haze in Sichuan Basin and typical cities from 1980 to 2012[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(10):3675-3683.
[24]Wu D,Tie X,Li C,et al.An extremely low visibility event over the Guangzhou region:A case study[J].Atmospheric Environment,2005,39(35):6568-6577.
[25]吴兑,毕雪岩,邓雪娇,等.珠江三角洲气溶胶云造成的严重灰霾天气[J].自然灾害学报,2006,(6):77-83.Wu D,Bi X,Deng X,et al.Heavy haze weather resulting from aerosol cloud over Pearl River Delta[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,(6):77-83.
[26]吴珊珊,章毅之,胡菊芳.江西省霾天气气候特征及其与气象条件的关系[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(3):71-77.Wu S,Zhang Y,Hu J.Climatic characteristics of haze days and its relationship with meteorological conditions over Jiangxi Province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2014,30(3):71-77.
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