三峡水库入库流量中期预报水文模型研究与应用
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摘要
准确、及时的水文气象预报是水库优化调度的基础。三峡水库建成后,库区水文水力学特性发生了明显变化。长江委水文局预报中心在原来长江上游中期预报基础上不断改进与创新,设计了基于多种模式数值预报的长江上游分区中期面雨量预报模型,在三峡水库入库流量预报方案中引进了MIKE11水力学预报模型。基于长江委水文局2010～2017年发布的分区面雨量预报和三峡水库中期入库流量预报成果,分析了面雨量和三峡入库流量预报精度以及预报误差出现的可能原因,并对未来中期水文气象预报发展趋势进行了展望。
Accurate and timely hydrometeorological forecast is the basis of reservoir optimal operation. After the completion of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the hydrological and hydraulic characteristics of the reservoir have changed greatly. On the basis of the original forecasting method, through continuous improvement and innovation, the Forecast Center of Hydrology Bureau of Changjiang Water Resources Commission developed a zoned medium-term areal rainfall forecast model based on a battery of numerical forecast models for the upstream Yangtze River and employed MIKE 11 hydraulics forecast model to forecast inflow entering the Three Gorges Reservoir.Based on the zoned area rainfall forecast and the medium-term inflow forecast entering the Three Gorges Reservoir issued by Hydrology Bureau during 2010 to 2017, this paper analyzes the forecast accuracy of the areal rainfall and the inflow entering the Three Gorges Reservoir and the possible causes of the forecast error, and prospects the development trend of the medium term hydrological and meteorological forecast in the future.
Accurate and timely hydrometeorological forecast is the basis of reservoir optimal operation. After the completion of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the hydrological and hydraulic characteristics of the reservoir have changed greatly. On the basis of the original forecasting method, through continuous improvement and innovation, the Forecast Center of Hydrology Bureau of Changjiang Water Resources Commission developed a zoned medium-term areal rainfall forecast model based on a battery of numerical forecast models for the upstream Yangtze River and employed MIKE 11 hydraulics forecast model to forecast inflow entering the Three Gorges Reservoir.Based on the zoned area rainfall forecast and the medium-term inflow forecast entering the Three Gorges Reservoir issued by Hydrology Bureau during 2010 to 2017, this paper analyzes the forecast accuracy of the areal rainfall and the inflow entering the Three Gorges Reservoir and the possible causes of the forecast error, and prospects the development trend of the medium term hydrological and meteorological forecast in the future.
引文
[1] 章淹,黄忠恕,范钟秀,等.长江三峡致洪暴雨与洪水的中长期预报[M].北京:气象出版社,1993.
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[16] 邱辉,李春龙,张方伟.长江流域多模式降雨预报效果检验[J].水利水电快报,2017,38(6):39-46.
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[18] 长江水利委员会水文局.三峡水库水文气象预报应用可靠性与风险性分析及应急调度响应策略研究[R].武汉:长江水利委员会水文局,2014.
[19] 陈桂亚.三峡水库运行调度技术研究与实践[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2013.
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[21] 王文,马骏.若干水文预报方法综述[J].水利水电科技进展,2005,25(1):56-60.
[22] 长江水利委员会水文局.长江汛期水情总结[R].武汉:长江水利委员会水文局,2017.
[23] 蔡其发,张立凤,张铭.中期数值天气预报的集合预报试验[J].气候与环境研究,1999,4(4):365-374.
[24] 王太微,陈德辉.数值预报发展的新方向—集合数值预报[J].气象研究与应用,2007,28 (1):6-12.
[25] 杜钧,李俊.集合预报方法在暴雨研究和预报中的应用[J].气象科技进展,2014,4(5):6-20.
[26] 杜钧,邓国.单一值预报向概率预报转变的价值:谈谈概率预报的检验和应用[J].气象,2010,36(12):10-18.
[27] 宗志平,薛峰.人工智能时代,天气如何预报[J].科学导报,2017(61):A4.
[28] 王俊.基于“互联网+”的长江水文监测体系研究[J].信息化建设,2018,(2):70-73.
[2] 沈浒英,黄忠恕.长江致洪暴雨与洪水中期预报方法研究[J].人民长江,1996,27(8):19-21.
[3] 鲍正风,王祥,舒卫民.基于短中期水文预报的三峡水库优化调度运用[J].水电与新能源,2015 (12):7-11.
[4] Tang G.Value of medium-range precipitation forecasts in inflow prediction and hydropower optimization[J].Water Resources Management,2010,24(11):2721-2742.
[5] Xu W,Peng Y,Wang B.Evaluation of optimization operation Models for Cascaded Hydropower Reservoirs to Utilize Medium Range Forecasting Inflow[J].Science China Technological Sciences,2013,56(10):2540-2552.
[6] Wang F,Wang L,Zhou H,et al.Ensemble Hydrological Prediction Based Real-Time Optimization of a Multi Objective Reservoir during Flood Season in a Semiarid Basin with Global Numerical Weather Predictions[J].Water Resources Research,2012(48):W07520.
[7] Collischonn W,Tucci M,Clarke RT,et al.Medium-Range Reservoir Inflow Predictions Based on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts[J].Journal of Hydrology,2007,344(1):112-122.
[8] 段唯鑫,闵要武,陈力,等.长江上游梯级水库建成后的三峡水情预报[J].人民长江,2011,42(4):1-4.
[9] 吴天蛟,杨汉波,李哲,等.基于MIKE11 的三峡库区洪水演进模拟[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(2):51-57.
[10] 闫之辉,王雨,朱富国.国家气象中心数值预报发展的回顾与展望[J].气象,2010,36(7):27-32.
[11] 沈学顺,苏勇,胡江林,等.GRAPES_GFS全球中期预报系统的研发和业务化[J].应用气象学报,2017,28(1):1-10.
[12] 尹姗,任宏昌.2017年9-11月T639、ECWMF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,2018,44(2):326-333.
[13] 毕宝贵,代刊,王毅,等.定量降水预报技术进展[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(5):534-548.
[14] 刘静,叶金印,张晓红,等.2011年6～8 月淮河流域面雨量预报检验[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(36):17698-17700,17707.
[15] 孟英杰,李丽平,金琪,等.2010年汛期四种数值模式长江流域面雨量预报检验[C]//科技引领产业、支撑跨越发展—第六届湖北科技论坛论文集萃.武汉:2011.
[16] 邱辉,李春龙,张方伟.长江流域多模式降雨预报效果检验[J].水利水电快报,2017,38(6):39-46.
[17] 吴娟,林荷娟,刘敏,等.太湖流域汛期面雨量多模式预报检验评估[J].水利水电快报,2017,38 (10):22-24.
[18] 长江水利委员会水文局.三峡水库水文气象预报应用可靠性与风险性分析及应急调度响应策略研究[R].武汉:长江水利委员会水文局,2014.
[19] 陈桂亚.三峡水库运行调度技术研究与实践[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2013.
[20] 许银山,李玉荣,闵要武.三峡水库水文气象预报不确定性及误差分布分析[J].人民长江,2015,46(21):27-32.
[21] 王文,马骏.若干水文预报方法综述[J].水利水电科技进展,2005,25(1):56-60.
[22] 长江水利委员会水文局.长江汛期水情总结[R].武汉:长江水利委员会水文局,2017.
[23] 蔡其发,张立凤,张铭.中期数值天气预报的集合预报试验[J].气候与环境研究,1999,4(4):365-374.
[24] 王太微,陈德辉.数值预报发展的新方向—集合数值预报[J].气象研究与应用,2007,28 (1):6-12.
[25] 杜钧,李俊.集合预报方法在暴雨研究和预报中的应用[J].气象科技进展,2014,4(5):6-20.
[26] 杜钧,邓国.单一值预报向概率预报转变的价值:谈谈概率预报的检验和应用[J].气象,2010,36(12):10-18.
[27] 宗志平,薛峰.人工智能时代,天气如何预报[J].科学导报,2017(61):A4.
[28] 王俊.基于“互联网+”的长江水文监测体系研究[J].信息化建设,2018,(2):70-73.
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