汶川Ms 8.0地震极重灾区的经济韧性测度及恢复效率
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摘要
揭示灾后经济发展状态和恢复过程,按照灾区经济韧性科学制定灾后经济重建的调控政策与恢复手段,对增强灾害防范与系统应对能力具有重要意义。以汶川地震极重灾区为案例,基于长时序社会经济面板数据与ARIMA模型,测算灾区经济韧性指数,并运用改进的规模报酬可变DEA模型、Malmquist生产率指数分析灾后年际经济恢复效率及影响效应。结果显示:①汶川地震极重灾区经济韧性指数为0.877,地震导致灾区短期经济衰退,但2年内恢复至震前水平,工业经济韧性低于农业和服务业。②受灾当年灾区经济恢复综合效率为0.603,其中,平原丘陵区综合效率、纯技术效率、规模效率均显著优于高原山地区。③灾后全要素生产率的年际波动强烈,经济恢复效率显著下降造成短期经济衰退,灾后2年TFP指数下降33.7%和15.2%后恢复至稳态。④灾后恢复效率显著下降主因为技术变动因素,而生产体系更新程度决定了灾后经济韧性。随着灾后经济恢复的规模收益下降,灾区经济恢复主要依赖纯技术效率,提升纯技术效率是保持灾后经济长期增长的动力。可见,针对重建自然条件和经济发展阶段的差异性,灾区当地需积极进行经济结构调整和再适应,同时,通过生产体系更新提升技术进步水平,以发挥灾后大规模资金、设施、人力等要素投入的规模效应,从而增强应对灾害冲击的经济韧性与恢复效率。
It is of great significance to enhance disaster prevention and response capacity to reveal the post-disaster economic development and recovery process, and to formulate the control policies and recovery methods for post-disaster economic reconstruction according to the economic resilience. Based on the long-term socio-economic data and ARIMA model, this paper calculated the economic resilience index of severely affected area of Wenchuan earthquake, and adopted the improved Variable Return to Scale(VRS) DEA model and Malmquist productivity index to analyze the efficiency and effect of annual post-disaster recovery. The results show that:(1) The economic resilience index of earthquake severely affected area is 0.877. The earthquake caused a short-term economic recession in the affected areas, but the economy returned to its pre-quake state within two years. In addition, the industrial economy is less resilient than agriculture and service industries.(2) The comprehensive economic recovery efficiency of the disaster-stricken area in the year after the disaster is 0.603. The comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of the plain hilly area are significantly higher than those of the plateau mountain area.(3) The annual fluctuation of total factor productivity after the disaster was strong, and the economic recovery efficiency declined significantly, resulting in a short-term economic recession. The TFP index returned to steady state after a decline of 33.7% and 15.2% in the two years after the disaster.(4) The significant decline in the post-disaster recovery efficiency is mainly caused by technological changes, and the renewal of production system is the leading factor in determining the economic resilience after the disaster. With the decline in the scale of economic recovery, the long-term economic recovery in the study areas mainly depends on pure technical efficiency, and the improvement of pure technical efficiency is the driving force to maintain the long-term growth of post-disaster economy. Therefore, in view of the differences between the reconstruction of natural conditions and the stage of economic development, the disasterstricken areas need to change and readjust their economic structures actively. Meanwhile, we should pay attention to updating production system to enhance the level of technological progress, and give full play to the scale effect of large-scale capital, facilities, manpower and other factors investment, so as to enhance the response to the disaster impact of economic resilience and recovery efficiency.
It is of great significance to enhance disaster prevention and response capacity to reveal the post-disaster economic development and recovery process, and to formulate the control policies and recovery methods for post-disaster economic reconstruction according to the economic resilience. Based on the long-term socio-economic data and ARIMA model, this paper calculated the economic resilience index of severely affected area of Wenchuan earthquake, and adopted the improved Variable Return to Scale(VRS) DEA model and Malmquist productivity index to analyze the efficiency and effect of annual post-disaster recovery. The results show that:(1) The economic resilience index of earthquake severely affected area is 0.877. The earthquake caused a short-term economic recession in the affected areas, but the economy returned to its pre-quake state within two years. In addition, the industrial economy is less resilient than agriculture and service industries.(2) The comprehensive economic recovery efficiency of the disaster-stricken area in the year after the disaster is 0.603. The comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of the plain hilly area are significantly higher than those of the plateau mountain area.(3) The annual fluctuation of total factor productivity after the disaster was strong, and the economic recovery efficiency declined significantly, resulting in a short-term economic recession. The TFP index returned to steady state after a decline of 33.7% and 15.2% in the two years after the disaster.(4) The significant decline in the post-disaster recovery efficiency is mainly caused by technological changes, and the renewal of production system is the leading factor in determining the economic resilience after the disaster. With the decline in the scale of economic recovery, the long-term economic recovery in the study areas mainly depends on pure technical efficiency, and the improvement of pure technical efficiency is the driving force to maintain the long-term growth of post-disaster economy. Therefore, in view of the differences between the reconstruction of natural conditions and the stage of economic development, the disasterstricken areas need to change and readjust their economic structures actively. Meanwhile, we should pay attention to updating production system to enhance the level of technological progress, and give full play to the scale effect of large-scale capital, facilities, manpower and other factors investment, so as to enhance the response to the disaster impact of economic resilience and recovery efficiency.
引文
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[8]Chang S E,Rose A Z.Towards a theory of economic recovery from disasters.International Journal of Mass Emergencies&Disasters,2012,32(2):171-181.
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[12]Hallegatte S.An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina.Risk Analysis,2010,28(3):779-799.
[13]Ding Xianjun,Yang Cuihong,Zhu Kunfu.A method based on input-output model to evaluate economic impact of disasters.Journal of Natural Disasters,2010,19(2):113-118.[丁先军,杨翠红,祝坤福.基于投入-产出模型的灾害经济影响评价方法.自然灾害学报,2010,19(2):113-118.]
[14]Zhu Jing.Imbalance of economy after disaster based on input-output model and path recovery.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2013,21(4):121-128.[朱靖.基于投入-产出模型的灾后经济非均衡与路径恢复研究.中国管理科学,2013,21(4):121-128.]
[15]Zhang Hong,Zuo Yafei.Influence of earthquake disasters on regional economic development and countermeasures.Special Zone Economy,2013(2):145-146.[张红,左娅菲.地震灾害对区域经济发展的影响及对策研究.特区经济,2013(2):145-146.]
[16]Zheng Changde.Analysis of the impact of Wenchuan earthquake on national and regional economic growth and countermeasures.Journal of Southwest Minzu University(Humanities&Social Sciences Edition),2008,29(7):75-79.[郑长德.汶川大地震对全国及地区经济增长的影响分析及对策研究.西南民族大学学报(人文社科版),2008,29(7):75-79.]
[17]Simmie J,Martin R L.The economic resilience of regions:Towards an evolutionary approach.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2010,3(1):27-43.
[18]Rose A,Krausmann E.An economic framework for the development of a resilience index for business recovery.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2013(5):73-83.
[19]Rose A,Liao S Y.Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters:A computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions.Journal of Regional Science,2005,45(1):75-112.
[20]Rose A,Lim D.Business interruption losses from natural hazards:Conceptual and methodological issues in the case of the Northridge earthquake.Global Environmental Change Part B Environmental Hazards,2002,4(1):1-14.
[21]Lu R,Dudensing R M.Post-Ike economic resilience along the Texas coast.Disasters,2015,39(3):493-521.
[22]Reggiani A,De Graaff T,Nijkamp P.Resilience:An evolutionary approach to spatial economic systems.Networks and Spatial Economics,2002,2(2):211-229.
[23]Wan Binlian,Zhai Fuofang.The post-earthquake regional economic growth pattern based on resilience:A case study of Wenchuan Earthquake.Modern Urban Research,2017(9):41-47.[万膑莲,翟国方.基于韧性的灾后区域经济增长模式研究:以汶川地震为例.现代城市研究,2017(9):41-47.]
[24]Benson C,Clay E J.Understanding the economic and financial impacts of natural disasters.World Bank,2004.
[25]Toyoda T.Economic evaluation of the recovery process from a great disaster in Japan:The case of Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake//The New Viewpoints and New Solutions of Economic Sciences in the Information Society,2011.
[26]Wu Jidong,Li Ning,Zhou Yang,et al.Disaster recovery measurement framework:An application case of disaster recovery after Hurricane Katrina.Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,22(4):58-64.[吴吉东,李宁,周扬,等.灾害恢复度量框架:Katrina飓风灾后恢复应用案例.自然灾害学报,2013,22(4):58-64.]
[27]Wu J,Li N,Xie W,et al.Post-disaster recovery and economic impact of catastrophes in China.Earthquake Spectra,2014,30(4):1825-1846.
[28]Tang Yandong,Yu Xi,Liu Chunping,et al.Theoretical and empirical study of the impact of Wenchuan earthquake on economic growth in Aba Prefecture.Journal of Natural Disasters,2014,23(5):90-97.[唐彦东,于汐,刘春平.汶川地震对阿坝州经济增长影响理论与实证研究.自然灾害学报,2014,23(5):90-97.]
[29]Wu Jidong,Hao Xiaolin,Li Ning,et al.Cost-benefit analysis of China's state-run natural disaster relief system:Methods and application.Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2014,50(1):100-104.[吴吉东,郝晓琳,李宁,等.中国“举国体制”应对巨灾的经济效益评估方法及应用.北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2014,50(1):100-104.]
[30]The State Council of the People's Republic of China.Post-Wenchuan Earthquake recovery and reconstruction master plan.2008-09-23.http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2008-09/24/content_6121.htm.[中华人民共和国国务院.汶川地震灾后恢复重建总体规划.2008-09-23.http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2008-09/24/content_6121.htm.]
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