额尔古纳市森林草原过渡带极端气候指数变化
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摘要
极端气候事件发生频率伴随着全球气候变暖不断升高,由此引发的气象灾害也随之增加。利用线性倾向估计法、GM(1,1)灾变预测法对1957—2017年额尔古纳市气象资料进行分析,研究中国北方森林草原过渡带极端气候特征。结果表明:1957—2017年年平均气温为-2.43℃,增长速率为0.33℃·10 a-1,最低气温的升高是导致气温升高的主要原因。霜冻日数、冰冻日数、最低气温极大值、最低气温显著下降,而夏天日数、生长季长度、气温日较差、最高气温、最高气温极小值、暖夜日数、暖昼日数显著上升; 1957—2017年年均降水量为361.6 mm,其中降水主要集中在夏秋季节,有效降水日数以8.17 d·10 a-1的速率显著下降,降水强度以3 mm·d-1·10 a-1的速率显著上升,连续有雨日数以0.47 d·10 a-1的变化速率显著下降;使用灰色GM(1,1)模型进行灾变预测,表明额尔古纳市下一次旱灾可能在2027—2028年。
Increasing frequency of extreme climate events is accompanied by global warming,leading to increasing meteorological disasters. The linear propensity method and GM( 1,1) catastrophic prediction method were used to analyze the meteorological data of Erguna during 1957-2017,with the aim to clarify the extreme climatic characteristics of forest-steppe ecotone in northern China. Mean annual temperature from 1957 to 2017 was-2.43 ℃,with a growth rate of0.33 ℃ ·10 a-1. The elevation of minimum temperature was the main contributor to the rising temperature. The number of frost days and freezing days,minimum temperature and its maximum value all significantly decreased,while the number of summer days,growing season length,temperature difference,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,the number of warm nights and the number of warm days increased significantly. The mean annual precipitation in Erguna in1957-2017 was 361.6 mm,which was mainly concentrated in summer and autumn. The number of effective precipitation days decreased significantly,with a rate of 8.17 d·10 a-1. The precipitation intensity increased significantly with a rate of 3 mm·d-1·10 a-1. The number of consecutive rainy days decreased significantly with a rate of 0.47 d·10 a-1. Grey GM( 1,1) model predicted that the next heavy drought event in Erguna might occur during years of 2027-2028.
Increasing frequency of extreme climate events is accompanied by global warming,leading to increasing meteorological disasters. The linear propensity method and GM( 1,1) catastrophic prediction method were used to analyze the meteorological data of Erguna during 1957-2017,with the aim to clarify the extreme climatic characteristics of forest-steppe ecotone in northern China. Mean annual temperature from 1957 to 2017 was-2.43 ℃,with a growth rate of0.33 ℃ ·10 a-1. The elevation of minimum temperature was the main contributor to the rising temperature. The number of frost days and freezing days,minimum temperature and its maximum value all significantly decreased,while the number of summer days,growing season length,temperature difference,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,the number of warm nights and the number of warm days increased significantly. The mean annual precipitation in Erguna in1957-2017 was 361.6 mm,which was mainly concentrated in summer and autumn. The number of effective precipitation days decreased significantly,with a rate of 8.17 d·10 a-1. The precipitation intensity increased significantly with a rate of 3 mm·d-1·10 a-1. The number of consecutive rainy days decreased significantly with a rate of 0.47 d·10 a-1. Grey GM( 1,1) model predicted that the next heavy drought event in Erguna might occur during years of 2027-2028.
引文
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崔凤琪,唐海萍,张钦,等.2018.1960-2017年呼伦贝尔草原极端气候事件时空变化.干旱区研究,35(6):1-13.
邸择雷,乌云娜,宋彦涛,等.2017.1958-2016年呼伦贝尔草原新巴尔虎右旗气温和降水变化特征.中国沙漠,37(5):1006-1015.
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郭晓寅,何勇,沈永平,等.2006.基于MODIS资料的2000-2004年江河源区陆地植被净初级生产力分析.冰川冻土,28(4):512-518.
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刘学华,季致建,吴洪宝,等.2006.中国近40年极端气温和降水的分布特征及年代际差异.热带气象学报,22(6):618-624.
权国玲.2015.中国草地生态系统模拟增温实验的综合比较.生态学杂志,34(4):1166-1173.
任福民,翟盘茂.1998.1951-1990年中国极端气温变化分析.大气科学,22(2):217-227.
任国玉,陈峪,邹旭凯,等.2010.综合极端气候指数的定义和趋势分析.气候与环境研究,15(4):354-364.
所甜甜.2013.基于GIS的极端气候事件“热浪”对植被净初级生产力的影响研究(硕士学位论文).济南:山东师范大学.
魏凤英.2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术.北京:气象出版社.
徐建华.2002.现代地理学中的数学方法.北京:高等教育出版社.
翟盘茂,任福民,张强.1999.中国降水极值变化趋势检测.气象学报,57(2):208-216.
张彬,刘华民,朱建军,等.2014.极端降水和极端干旱事件对草原生态系统的影响.植物生态学报,38(9):1008-1018.
赵秀兰.2010.近50年来中国东北地区气候变化对农业的影响.东北农业大学学报,41(9):144-149.
朱龙腾,陈远生,燕然然,等.2012.1951年至2010年北京市降水和气温的变化特征.资源科学,34(7):1287-1297.
Alexander LV,Zhang X,Peterson TC,et al.2006.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,111:1042-1063.
Bai Y,Wu J,Xing Q,et al.2008.Primary production and rain use efficiency across a precipitation gradient on the Mongolia Plateau.Ecology,89:2140-2153.
Choi G,Collins D,Ren G,et al.2010.Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the AsiaPacific Network region,1955-2007.International Journal of Climatology,29:1906-1925.
Easterling DR,Evans JL,Groisman PY,et al.2000.Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events:A brief review.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,81:417-426.
IPCC.2007.Summary for Policymakers of Climate Change2007:The Physical Science Basis.Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press.
Karl TR,Nicholls N,Ghazi A.1999.CLIVAR/GCOS/WMOworkshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes:Workshop summary.Climatic Change,42:3-7.
Knapp AK,Smith MD.2001.Variation among biomes in temporal dynamics of aboveground primary production.Science,291:481-484.
Peng C,Apps MJ.1999.Modelling the response of net primary productivity(NPP)of boreal forest ecosystems to changes in climate and fire disturbance regimes.Ecological Modelling,122:175-193.
Rustad LE,Fernandez IJ.1998.Experimental soil warming effects on CO2and CH4flux from a low elevation spruce-fir forest soil in Maine,USA.Global Change Biology,4:597-605.
Sala OE,Lauenroth WK,Parton WJ.1992.Long-term soil water dynamics in the shortgrass steppe.Ecology,73:1175-1181.
Zhai PM,Sun AJ,Ren FM,et al.1999.Change of climate extremes in China.Climate Change,42:203-218.
崔凤琪,唐海萍,张钦,等.2018.1960-2017年呼伦贝尔草原极端气候事件时空变化.干旱区研究,35(6):1-13.
邸择雷,乌云娜,宋彦涛,等.2017.1958-2016年呼伦贝尔草原新巴尔虎右旗气温和降水变化特征.中国沙漠,37(5):1006-1015.
丁书萍.2012.呼伦贝尔森林-草原生态交错带气候变化特征研究(硕士学位论文).长春:东北农业大学.
丁一汇,任国玉.2008.中国气候变化科学概论.北京:气象出版社.
高妍,冯起,李宗省,等.2014.祁连山讨赖河流域1957-2012年极端气候变化.中国沙漠,34(3):814-826.
郭晓寅,何勇,沈永平,等.2006.基于MODIS资料的2000-2004年江河源区陆地植被净初级生产力分析.冰川冻土,28(4):512-518.
贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.2013.1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势.生态学报,33(2):519-531.
刘学华,季致建,吴洪宝,等.2006.中国近40年极端气温和降水的分布特征及年代际差异.热带气象学报,22(6):618-624.
权国玲.2015.中国草地生态系统模拟增温实验的综合比较.生态学杂志,34(4):1166-1173.
任福民,翟盘茂.1998.1951-1990年中国极端气温变化分析.大气科学,22(2):217-227.
任国玉,陈峪,邹旭凯,等.2010.综合极端气候指数的定义和趋势分析.气候与环境研究,15(4):354-364.
所甜甜.2013.基于GIS的极端气候事件“热浪”对植被净初级生产力的影响研究(硕士学位论文).济南:山东师范大学.
魏凤英.2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术.北京:气象出版社.
徐建华.2002.现代地理学中的数学方法.北京:高等教育出版社.
翟盘茂,任福民,张强.1999.中国降水极值变化趋势检测.气象学报,57(2):208-216.
张彬,刘华民,朱建军,等.2014.极端降水和极端干旱事件对草原生态系统的影响.植物生态学报,38(9):1008-1018.
赵秀兰.2010.近50年来中国东北地区气候变化对农业的影响.东北农业大学学报,41(9):144-149.
朱龙腾,陈远生,燕然然,等.2012.1951年至2010年北京市降水和气温的变化特征.资源科学,34(7):1287-1297.
Alexander LV,Zhang X,Peterson TC,et al.2006.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,111:1042-1063.
Bai Y,Wu J,Xing Q,et al.2008.Primary production and rain use efficiency across a precipitation gradient on the Mongolia Plateau.Ecology,89:2140-2153.
Choi G,Collins D,Ren G,et al.2010.Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the AsiaPacific Network region,1955-2007.International Journal of Climatology,29:1906-1925.
Easterling DR,Evans JL,Groisman PY,et al.2000.Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events:A brief review.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,81:417-426.
IPCC.2007.Summary for Policymakers of Climate Change2007:The Physical Science Basis.Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press.
Karl TR,Nicholls N,Ghazi A.1999.CLIVAR/GCOS/WMOworkshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes:Workshop summary.Climatic Change,42:3-7.
Knapp AK,Smith MD.2001.Variation among biomes in temporal dynamics of aboveground primary production.Science,291:481-484.
Peng C,Apps MJ.1999.Modelling the response of net primary productivity(NPP)of boreal forest ecosystems to changes in climate and fire disturbance regimes.Ecological Modelling,122:175-193.
Rustad LE,Fernandez IJ.1998.Experimental soil warming effects on CO2and CH4flux from a low elevation spruce-fir forest soil in Maine,USA.Global Change Biology,4:597-605.
Sala OE,Lauenroth WK,Parton WJ.1992.Long-term soil water dynamics in the shortgrass steppe.Ecology,73:1175-1181.
Zhai PM,Sun AJ,Ren FM,et al.1999.Change of climate extremes in China.Climate Change,42:203-218.
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