2009-2015年中国耕地资源利用时空格局变化研究——基于粮食安全与生态安全双重视角
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摘要
[目的]研究2009—2015年中国及其31个省(不含港澳台地区)耕地资源利用的时空格局变化,为优化和完善中国耕地保护政策,促进区域可持续发展提供科学参考。[方法]基于粮食安全和生态安全双重视角,利用粮食供需平衡法和生态足迹法,分析耕地资源的供需盈亏和生态盈亏,并结合耕地保护红线和行星边界框架,探讨中国耕地资源利用的安全区间。[结果]从粮食供需盈亏来看,中国耕地利用处于供需不平衡状态,省际差异明显,盈余省份主要分布在中部和东北地区,东南沿海省份赤字系数较高;从生态足迹盈亏来看,中国耕地利用总体处于生态赤字状态,赤字系数较高的省份主要位于中东部人口集聚和经济发达地区及西北地区,少数盈余省份分布在南部和西南地区;行星边界框架提出的耕地转化率不超过15%,具有一定合理性。结合耕地保护红线讨论中国耕地规模的安全区间,认为1.20×10~8～1.44×10~8 hm~2是相对合理的设定。[结论]今后在完善区域差别化耕地保护政策的过程中,应当关注耕地规模区间的设定和变动,遵循粮食安全与生态安全协调并举的可持续发展原则。
[Objective] This paper aims to investigate the spatio-temporal changes in the patterns of cultivated land use in China and its 31 provinces(excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2009 to 2015 so as to provide a scientific reference for promoting China's cultivated land protection policy and regional sustainable development. [Methods] The methods of grain supply-demand balance and ecological footprint analysis were employed to account for the cultivated land budget based on food safety and ecological security. In addition, the safe operating space for cultivated land utilization in China was discussed based on the China's ecological redline policy and the planetary boundaries framework. [Results] The budget of supply and demand of China's cultivated land was generally in disequilibrium, with surplus in central and northeast of China and deficit in southeast of China. From the perspective of ecological footprint, the cultivated land use in China was in deficit. The provinces with high deficit coefficient were mainly located in the central and eastern regions of densely populated and economically developed provinces, while a few surplus provinces were mainly distributed in south and southwest of China. Following the planetary boundaries framework arguing that the maximum permissible percentage of global land cover converted to cropland was estimated at 15%, together with China's redline of cultivated land protection, the safe operating space for cultivated land use in China could be ranging from 1.20×10~8 hm~2 to 1.44×10~8 hm~2. [Conclusion] More attentions need to be paid on the determination and variation of safe range for cultivated land at multiple scales. The food safety and ecological security could assist decision makers in developing regional-specific policies for sustainable use of cultivated land.
[Objective] This paper aims to investigate the spatio-temporal changes in the patterns of cultivated land use in China and its 31 provinces(excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2009 to 2015 so as to provide a scientific reference for promoting China's cultivated land protection policy and regional sustainable development. [Methods] The methods of grain supply-demand balance and ecological footprint analysis were employed to account for the cultivated land budget based on food safety and ecological security. In addition, the safe operating space for cultivated land utilization in China was discussed based on the China's ecological redline policy and the planetary boundaries framework. [Results] The budget of supply and demand of China's cultivated land was generally in disequilibrium, with surplus in central and northeast of China and deficit in southeast of China. From the perspective of ecological footprint, the cultivated land use in China was in deficit. The provinces with high deficit coefficient were mainly located in the central and eastern regions of densely populated and economically developed provinces, while a few surplus provinces were mainly distributed in south and southwest of China. Following the planetary boundaries framework arguing that the maximum permissible percentage of global land cover converted to cropland was estimated at 15%, together with China's redline of cultivated land protection, the safe operating space for cultivated land use in China could be ranging from 1.20×10~8 hm~2 to 1.44×10~8 hm~2. [Conclusion] More attentions need to be paid on the determination and variation of safe range for cultivated land at multiple scales. The food safety and ecological security could assist decision makers in developing regional-specific policies for sustainable use of cultivated land.
引文
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[24]张林波,李文华,刘孝富,等.承载力理论的起源、发展与展望[J].生态学报,2009,29(2):878-888.
[25]刘某承,李文华,谢高地.基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹产量因子测算[J].生态学杂志,2010,29(3):592-597.
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[31]王金萍.中国跻身中等偏上收入组[J].中国统计,2016(9):66-67.
[2]谢高地,成升魁,肖玉,等.新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(6):895-903.
[3]郭杰,包倩,欧名豪.基于资源禀赋和经济发展区域分异的中国新增建设用地指标分配研究[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(6):71-80.
[4]李晓俐.虚拟耕地进口是目前及未来确保中国粮食安全之策[J].农业展望,2011,7(10):28-30.
[5]蔡运龙,汪涌,李玉平.中国耕地供需变化规律研究[J]中国土地科学,2009,23(3):11-18.
[6]周小平,宋丽洁,柴铎,等.区域耕地保护补偿分区实证研究[J].经济地理,2010,30(9):1546-1551.
[7]李效顺,蒋冬梅,卞正富.基于粮食安全视角的中国耕地资源盈亏测算[J].资源科学,2014,36(10):2057-2065.
[8]刘洛,徐新良,刘纪远,等.1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响[J].地理学报,2014,69(12):1767-1778.
[9]封志明,孙通,杨艳昭.2003-2013年中国粮食增产格局及其贡献因素研究[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(6):895-907.
[10]谭永忠,何巨,岳文泽,等.全国第二次土地调查前后中国耕地面积变化的空间格局[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(2):186-197.
[11]傅伯杰,张立伟.土地利用变化与生态系统服务:概念、方法与进展[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(4):441-446.
[12]中华人民共和国国家统计局.国家数据[DB/OL].http:∥data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01.
[13]Crutzen P J.Geology of mankind[J].Nature,2002,415(6867):23-23.
[14]揣小伟,黄贤金,郑泽庆,等.江苏省土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储量的影响[J].资源科学,2011,33(10):1932-1939.
[15]张舟,吴次芳,谭荣.生态系统服务价值在土地利用变化研究中的应用:瓶颈和展望[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(2):556-562.
[16]赵荣钦,李志萍,韩宇平,等.区域“水-土-能-碳”耦合作用机制分析[J].地理学报,2016,71(9):1613-1628.
[17]徐辉,雷国平,崔登攀,等.耕地生态安全评价研究:以黑龙江省宁安市为例[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(6):180-184,189.
[18]王千,金晓斌,周寅康.河北省耕地生态安全及空间聚集格局[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(8):338-344.
[19]靳亚亚,赵凯,肖桂春.陕西省耕地保护经济补偿分区研究:基于粮食安全与生态安全双重视角[J].中国土地科学,2015,29(10):12-19.
[20]何玲,贾启建,李超,等.基于生态系统服务价值与粮食安全的生态安全底线核算[J]应用生态学报,2016,27(1):215-224.
[21]吴艳飞,徐羽,徐刚.近14年安徽省耕地资源安全的时空特征[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(6):236-241.
[22]Wackernagel M,Onisto L,Bell P,et al.National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept[J].Ecological Economics,1999,29(3):375-390.
[23]方恺.基于改进生态足迹三维模型的自然资本利用特征分析:选取11个国家为数据源[J].生态学报,2015,35(11):3766-3777.
[24]张林波,李文华,刘孝富,等.承载力理论的起源、发展与展望[J].生态学报,2009,29(2):878-888.
[25]刘某承,李文华,谢高地.基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹产量因子测算[J].生态学杂志,2010,29(3):592-597.
[26]国家发展与改革委员会.国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要(2008-2020年)[R].2008:1-31.
[27]Rockstr9m J,Steffen W,Noone K,et al.A safe operating space for humanity[J].Nature,2009,461(7263):472-475.
[28]Nykvist B,Persson,Moberg F,et al.National environmental performance on planetary boundaries:Astudy for the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency[R].Stockholm:Swedish Environmental Protection Agency,2013:1-120.
[29]Hoff H,Nykvist B,Carson M.“Living well,within the limits of our planet”?Measuring Europe’s growing external footprint[J].Environment Control in Biology,2014,45(5):1464-1467.
[30]Cole M J,Bailey R M,New M G.Tracking sustainable development with a national barometer for South Africa,using a downscaled safe and just space framework[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2014,111(42):E4399-E4408.
[31]王金萍.中国跻身中等偏上收入组[J].中国统计,2016(9):66-67.
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