中国北方麦区冬小麦物候期对气候变化的响应
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摘要
为评价中国北方主要冬麦区小麦关键物候时间变化和主要影响气象因子的区域差异,基于1992-2013年间57个站点资料,在分析黄淮海平原、黄土高原和西北内陆冬小麦返青和成熟期时空变化的基础上,探讨影响北方麦区冬小麦关键生育时期的主要气象因子。结果表明,1992-2013年,北方冬小麦整体呈现返青期延后,成熟期提前,但总体趋势不明显,且存在区域差异;生育时期变化幅度随经度增加而增大。月平均温度和月最低温度分别是影响黄淮海平原冬小麦返青期和成熟期的主要气象要素,而黄土高原冬小麦生育时期主要受月平均温度变化的影响,但在西北内陆,返青期与月最低温度的负相关性最显著,而成熟期则主要受月平均温度变化的影响。月日照时长、月温差和月降水对小麦生育时期的影响在黄淮海平原/黄土高原和西北内陆相反。在黄淮海平原和黄土高原,月日照时长和月温差变化与小麦生育时期呈正相关,月降水与冬小麦生育时期呈负相关,但在西北内陆,月日照时长和月温差与小麦生育时期总体上呈负相关,月降水增加对西北内陆冬小麦生长有利,可延缓因干旱导致的物候提前。
In order to evaluate of the difference in the impact of climate changes on phenology of winter wheat due to regions,we analyzed the spatial-temporal changes of key growth stage of winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain(HHHP),Loess Plateau(LP) and Northwest of China(NWC) using 57 agricultural-climate station data from 1992 to 2013,which were obtained from China Meteorological Administration. The results indicated that the turning-green and maturity period of winter wheat were generally delayed from 1992 to 2013 in the north of China. In addition,the range of changes in key growth periods of winter wheat was increased gradually from west to east,in another word,from NWC to HHHP,whereas,the differences were not dramatically obvious. The average temperature and minimum temperature are the main meteorological factors affecting the turning-green and maturity periods of winter wheat in HHHP,respectively,while the changes of key growth stages of winter wheat in LP are mainly affected by the changes of the average temperature. However,in the NWC,the turning-green period has a significantly negative correlation with the minimum temperature,while the time of maturity period is mainly affected by the change of average temperature in NWC region. In addition,the effects of sunshine,monthly temperature range,and precipitation on the key growth period of wheat are contrasting in the HHHP/LP area and the northwest inner area. In the HHHP and LP regions,the changes in sunshine duration and monthly temperature range have a positive correlation with turning-green and maturity of winter wheat and precipitation was negatively correlated with the two phenology parameters. However,the relationship between sunshine duration and monthly temperature range and phenology of winter wheat is negative in NWC,while precipitation has a positively relationship with turning-green and maturity periods in this region,which is contrasting with the correlation between the parameters in HHHP and LP. It is suggested that the increased precipitation is favorable for the growth of winter wheat which can prolong crop growth in this arid area.
In order to evaluate of the difference in the impact of climate changes on phenology of winter wheat due to regions,we analyzed the spatial-temporal changes of key growth stage of winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain(HHHP),Loess Plateau(LP) and Northwest of China(NWC) using 57 agricultural-climate station data from 1992 to 2013,which were obtained from China Meteorological Administration. The results indicated that the turning-green and maturity period of winter wheat were generally delayed from 1992 to 2013 in the north of China. In addition,the range of changes in key growth periods of winter wheat was increased gradually from west to east,in another word,from NWC to HHHP,whereas,the differences were not dramatically obvious. The average temperature and minimum temperature are the main meteorological factors affecting the turning-green and maturity periods of winter wheat in HHHP,respectively,while the changes of key growth stages of winter wheat in LP are mainly affected by the changes of the average temperature. However,in the NWC,the turning-green period has a significantly negative correlation with the minimum temperature,while the time of maturity period is mainly affected by the change of average temperature in NWC region. In addition,the effects of sunshine,monthly temperature range,and precipitation on the key growth period of wheat are contrasting in the HHHP/LP area and the northwest inner area. In the HHHP and LP regions,the changes in sunshine duration and monthly temperature range have a positive correlation with turning-green and maturity of winter wheat and precipitation was negatively correlated with the two phenology parameters. However,the relationship between sunshine duration and monthly temperature range and phenology of winter wheat is negative in NWC,while precipitation has a positively relationship with turning-green and maturity periods in this region,which is contrasting with the correlation between the parameters in HHHP and LP. It is suggested that the increased precipitation is favorable for the growth of winter wheat which can prolong crop growth in this arid area.
引文
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[12]李祎君,王春乙,赵蓓,等.气候变化对中国农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(S1):263. LI Y J,WANG C Y,ZHAO B,et al.Effects of climate change on agricultural meteorological disaster and crop insects diseases [J].Transactions of the CSAE,2010,26(S1):263.
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