基于核密度估计的清代中国自然灾害时空分布特征
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摘要
基于《清史·灾赈志》中的历史灾害信息,提取清代(1644-1911年)自然灾害共24 537县次,重建逐年灾害频次序列,以核密度估计法对5类主要灾害(水灾、旱灾、蝗灾、疫灾、冷害)的空间分布特征进行分析。结果表明:清代自然灾害频次序列没有明显的趋势性特征,而体现为阶段性波动,基于灾害频次30年滑动平均值可提取出4个峰值时段(1644-1673、1721-1750、1812-1841和1872-1901年);相比于现代,清代灾害类型更加集中在农业灾害,最为多发的是水灾和旱灾,合计占总数的近80%,其次是蝗灾、疫灾和冷害;灾害最为多发的高风险区分布在黄淮海平原和长江三角洲,前者集中了水灾、旱灾、蝗灾的极端多发区,后者除了水旱多发,还是疫灾和冷害的极端多发区; 4个峰值时段的灾种类型组合和灾害多发区均有明显差异,时空变化受到致灾因子、暴露度和脆弱性因素的共同作用。上述工作有助于更好地认识历史灾害发生规律,对于当前及未来的防灾减灾工作具有重要参考价值。
Based on the information about historical disasters kept in the Qing History, counties suffered from natural disasters during the Qing dynasty(1644-1911 AD) were identified year by year, which sum to 24 537, and annual frequency series of disaster was reconstructed. Spatial distribution of 5 main disasters(flood, drought, locust plague, epidemic, and cold damage) was analyzed with kernel density estimation. ①There was no significant trend in frequency series, but fluctuation by phases, and four peak periods could be identified with 30-year running average, namely 1644-1673, 1721-1750, 1812-1841 and 1872-1901 AD. ②Compared with modern times, more agricultural disasters were kept in the statistics of Qing dynasty, which means about 80% of the total was flood and drought, and then locust plague, epidemic, and cold damage. ③Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Yangtze River Delta were the most significant hotspots where natural disasters were concentrated. Flood, drought and locust plague occurred most frequently in the former, while epidemic and cold damage in the latter. ④The composition of typical disasters and temporal distribution of all disasters varied in four peak periods, which was caused by physical characteristics of disasters, exposure, and vulnerability of social ecosystem. These conclusions could be helpful for the improvement of knowledge about the occurrence regulation of historical disasters, and provide important references for disaster prevention and mitigation in the present and future.
Based on the information about historical disasters kept in the Qing History, counties suffered from natural disasters during the Qing dynasty(1644-1911 AD) were identified year by year, which sum to 24 537, and annual frequency series of disaster was reconstructed. Spatial distribution of 5 main disasters(flood, drought, locust plague, epidemic, and cold damage) was analyzed with kernel density estimation. ①There was no significant trend in frequency series, but fluctuation by phases, and four peak periods could be identified with 30-year running average, namely 1644-1673, 1721-1750, 1812-1841 and 1872-1901 AD. ②Compared with modern times, more agricultural disasters were kept in the statistics of Qing dynasty, which means about 80% of the total was flood and drought, and then locust plague, epidemic, and cold damage. ③Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Yangtze River Delta were the most significant hotspots where natural disasters were concentrated. Flood, drought and locust plague occurred most frequently in the former, while epidemic and cold damage in the latter. ④The composition of typical disasters and temporal distribution of all disasters varied in four peak periods, which was caused by physical characteristics of disasters, exposure, and vulnerability of social ecosystem. These conclusions could be helpful for the improvement of knowledge about the occurrence regulation of historical disasters, and provide important references for disaster prevention and mitigation in the present and future.
引文
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[2] 刘志刚.天人之际:灾害、生态与明清易代[J].长沙:中南大学出版社,2013.
[3] 许厚德.论我国灾害历史的研究[J].灾害学,1995,10(1):18-21.
[4] 朱浒.二十世纪清代灾荒史研究述评[J].清史研究,2003,(2):104-119.
[5] 张崇旺.明清时期江淮地区的自然灾害与社会经济[M].福州:福建人民出版社,2006.
[6] 杨煜达.清代云南季风气候与天气灾害研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2006.
[7] 张琨佳,刘璐,苏筠.中国清代历史水灾时空特征研究[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(4):104-110.
[8] 万金红,谭徐明,刘昌东.基于清代故宫旱灾档案的中国旱灾时空格局[J].水科学进展,2012,24(1):18-23.
[9] 文彦君,方修琦,李屹凯,等.华北地区1876-1879年旱灾研究文献综述[J].灾害学,2019,34(1) :172-180.
[10] 张德二,陆龙骅.历史极端雨涝事件研究——1823年我国东部大范围雨涝[J].第四纪研究,2011,31(1):29-35.
[11] 张德二.中国三千年气象记录总集[M].南京:凤凰出版社,江苏教育出版社,2004.
[12] 马大正.清史纂修简述[J].社会科学战线,2009(11):123-131.
[13] 牛平汉.清代政区沿革综表[M].北京:中国地图出版社,1990.
[14] 邓云特.中国救荒史[M].上海:商务印书馆,1937.
[15] 李向军.清代荒政研究[M].北京:中国农业出版社,1995.
[16] 王法辉.基于GIS的数量方法与应用[M].姜世国,滕骏华,译.北京:商务印书馆,2009.
[17] 张峭,王克.我国农业自然灾害风险评估与区划[J].中国农业资源与区划,2011,32(3):32-36.
[18] 张琨佳,杨帅,苏筠.明清时期我国水、旱灾害时空演变特点的对比分析[J].地球环境学报,2014,5(6):385-391.
[19] 王静爱,孙恒,徐伟,等.近50年中国旱灾的时空变化[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(2):1-6.
[20] 马世骏,尤其儆,陈永林,等.中国东亚飞蝗蝗区的研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1965.
[21] 龚胜生.中国疫灾的时空分布变迁规律[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):870-878.
[22] 余新忠.清代江南的瘟疫与社会:一项医疗社会史的研究[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2014.
[23] 高懋芳,邱建军,刘三超,等.我国低温冷冻害的发生规律分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2008,16(5):1167-1172.
[24] 李伯重.江南农业的发展(1620-1850)[M].上海:上海古籍出版社,2007.
[25] 王铮,张丕远,刘啸雷.中国自然灾害的空间分布特征[J].地理学报,1995,50(3):248-255.
[26] 李炳元,李钜章,王建军.中国自然灾害的区域组合规律[J].地理学报,1996,51(1):1-11.
[27] ZHENG J Y,XIAO L B,FANG X Q,et al.How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming Dynasty[J].Climatic Change,2014,127(2):169-182.
[28] 李钢.蝗灾·气候·社会[M].北京:中国环境出版社,2014.
[29] 萧凌波.清代华北蝗灾时空分布及其与水旱灾害的关系[J].古地理学报,2018,20(6):1113-1122.
[30] GE Q S,HAO Z X,ZHENG J Y,et al.Temperature changes over the past 2000 yr in China and comparison with the Northern Hemisphere[J].Climate of the Past,2013,9:1153-1160.
[31] 方修琦,萧凌波,魏柱灯.18-19 世纪之交华北平原气候转冷的社会影响及其发生机制[J].中国科学,(地球科学),2013,43(5):810-823.
[32] 李伯重.“道光萧条”与“癸未大水”——经济衰退、气候剧变及19世纪的危机在松江[J].社会科学,2007(6):173-178.
[33] 倪玉平,高晓燕.清朝道光“癸未大水”的财政损失[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2014,29(4):99-109,171-172.
[34] 郝志新,郑景云,伍国凤,等.1876-1878年华北大旱:史实、影响及气候背景[J].科学通报,2010,55(23):2321-2328.
[35] 萧凌波.1736-1911年中国水灾多发区分布及空间迁移特征[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(4):495-503.
[36] IPCC.Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation:Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2012.
[37] Gallopín G C.Linkages between vulnerability,resilience,and adaptive capacity[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16:293-303.
[38] 赵映慧,郭晶鹏,毛克彪,等.1949-2015年中国典型自然灾害及粮食灾损特征[J].地理学报,2017,72(7):1261-1276.
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