基于灰色理论的西藏暴雨洪涝预测
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摘要
以西藏38个气象站点1985-2014年实测降水量为基础数据,应用灰色预测模型和长序列趋势拟合方法预测2015-2019年的年降水量和季节降水量,经2015-2017年的实测降水数据验证,其结果良好,最后以调整后的降水距平百分率为洪涝指标,分析2018年、 2019年的洪涝预测情况。结果表明,西藏2018年降水集中在东南部地区的林芝、米林、波密和察隅一带, 2019年降水主要集中在芒康地区,季节上春季降水主要集中在雅鲁藏布江大拐弯地区,夏季主要在索曲河、怒江上游地区,秋季主要在嘉黎、林芝、波密一带,冬季降水集中在聂拉木地区。2018年和2019年洪涝易发生在春季和冬季,洪涝情况都相对正常,大部分县区为无涝或正常状态,少数县区为轻微洪涝,极少数县区为中涝或特涝, 2019年洪涝情况相较于2018年整体偏多,其中在2018年的拉孜县和2019年的拉萨城关区,极有可能出现特涝灾害。
Precipitation is a principal condition for flood. In this paper, based on precipitation data from 38 meteorological stations in Tibet, 1985-2014, as the basal forecast data, the grey model and the long sequence trend fitting are utilized to predict the yearly and seasonal precipitation in 2015-2019. It was verified by the measured precipitation from 2015 to 2017 that the result is good. Finally, the adjusted precipitation anomaly percentage was used as a flood index to analyze the flood forecast in 2018 and 2019. It is found that in 2018 precipitation concentrated in Nyingchi, Mainling, Bomê and Zayü in southeastern Tibet. Precipitation will mainly concentrate in Markam in 2019. And rainfall mainly occurs in the Great Canyon region of the Yalung Zangbo River in spring, the upper reaches of the Suoqu River and Nu River in summer, Lhari, Nyingchi, and Bomê in the fall, and the Nyalam in winter. Different from summer and autumn, floods will occur frequently in spring and winter in 2018 and 2019. There will be a relatively normal situation of flood in Tibet in 2018, most counties in an unblemished or normal state with slight flood in a few counties and middle or serious flood in a few counties. The flood in 2019 will be more than that in 2018. Additionally, there will be a great possibility for waterlogging disasters in Lhazê County in 2018 and Lhasa in 2019; the local government should pay special attention to the flood prevention during the flood season. These consequences are of profound significance for the flood prevention in Tibet in the next two years.
Precipitation is a principal condition for flood. In this paper, based on precipitation data from 38 meteorological stations in Tibet, 1985-2014, as the basal forecast data, the grey model and the long sequence trend fitting are utilized to predict the yearly and seasonal precipitation in 2015-2019. It was verified by the measured precipitation from 2015 to 2017 that the result is good. Finally, the adjusted precipitation anomaly percentage was used as a flood index to analyze the flood forecast in 2018 and 2019. It is found that in 2018 precipitation concentrated in Nyingchi, Mainling, Bomê and Zayü in southeastern Tibet. Precipitation will mainly concentrate in Markam in 2019. And rainfall mainly occurs in the Great Canyon region of the Yalung Zangbo River in spring, the upper reaches of the Suoqu River and Nu River in summer, Lhari, Nyingchi, and Bomê in the fall, and the Nyalam in winter. Different from summer and autumn, floods will occur frequently in spring and winter in 2018 and 2019. There will be a relatively normal situation of flood in Tibet in 2018, most counties in an unblemished or normal state with slight flood in a few counties and middle or serious flood in a few counties. The flood in 2019 will be more than that in 2018. Additionally, there will be a great possibility for waterlogging disasters in Lhazê County in 2018 and Lhasa in 2019; the local government should pay special attention to the flood prevention during the flood season. These consequences are of profound significance for the flood prevention in Tibet in the next two years.
引文
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[6] Dong Jiarui,Wang Angsheng.The couple model for forecasting and assessing drought and waterlogging disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1997(2):70-77.[董加瑞,王昂生.干旱、 洪涝灾害预测及损失评估耦合模式[J].自然灾害学报,1997(2):70-77.]
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[9] Xiong Junnan,Liu Zhiqi,Fan Chunkun,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and changing trend of meteorologic disaster in Tibet Autonomous Region from 1983 through 2013[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2017,39(6):1221-1231.[熊俊楠,刘志奇,范春捆,等.1983-2013年西藏自治区气象灾害时空分布特征与变化趋势[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(6):1221-1231.]
[10] Gao Rong,Wei Zhigang,Zhong Hailing.Relationship between land surface characteristics in the Tibetan Plateau and summer precipitation in China[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2017,39(4):741-747.[高荣,韦志刚,钟海玲.青藏高原陆表特征与中国夏季降水的关系研究[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(4):741-747.]
[11] Qiangba Puncog.A survey of Tibet Autonomous Region[M].Beijing:The Ethnic Publishing House,2009:1-16.[向巴平措.西藏自治区概况[M].北京:民族出版社,2009:1-16.]
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[13] Huang Yimin,Zhang Xinpin.Character analysis in variation of seasonal precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2007(4):537-542.[黄一民,章新平.青藏高原四季降水变化特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007(4):537-542.]
[14] Lan Yongchao,Zeng Qunzhu.Grey prediction method on snowmelt runoff in the Hexi area[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,1997,19(2):154-160.[蓝永超,曾群柱.河西地区融雪径流的灰色预测方法[J].冰川冻土,1997,19(2):154-160.]
[15] Cui Lizhi.Grey forecast technology and its application research[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2010.[崔立志.灰色预测技术及其应用研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2010.]
[16] Deng Julong.Foundation of grey theory[M].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science & Technology Press,2002:18-57.[邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002:18-57.]
[17] Pai Tzuyi,Hanaki Keisuke,Ho Hsinhsien,et al.Using grey system theory to evaluate transportation effects on air quality trends in Japan[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport & Environment,2007,12(3):158-166.
[18] Kayacan E,Ulutas B,Kaynak O.Grey system theory-based models in time series prediction[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(2):1784-1789.
[19] Zhang Shanyu,Cheng Shengyu.Grey prediction of flood disaster [J].Journal of China Hydrology,2000(2):23-25.[张善余,程胜余.洪涝灾害的灰色预测[J].水文,2000(2):23-25.]
[20] Ju Xiaosheng,Yang Xianwei.Research on determination of station indexes and division of regional flood/drought grades in China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,1997,8(1):26-33.[鞠笑生,杨贤为.我国单站旱涝指标确定和区域旱涝级别划分的研究[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(1):26-33.]
[21] He Xiaohong,Pubu Zhuoma.Preliminary study on drought and waterlogging index in Tibet area [J].Tibet’s Science and Technology,2001(1):70-73.[何小红,普布卓玛.西藏地区旱涝指标的初步研究[J].西藏科技,2001(1):70-73.]
[22] Gesang,Su Xueyan,Pubu Zhuoma.Verification of precipitation anomaly percentage in drought judgement in Tibet[J].Tibet’s Science and Technology,2009(2):60-62.[格桑,苏雪燕,普布卓玛.降水距平百分率在西藏干旱判定中的验证[J].西藏科技,2009(2):60-62.]
[23] Pubu Zhuoma,Zhou Shunwu.Classification and temporal and spatial distribution of drought and flood in Tibet area[J].Plateau Meteorology,2002,21(2):210-216.[普布卓玛,周顺武.西藏地区旱涝等级划分及时空分布特征[J].高原气象,2002,21(2):210-216.]
[24] Yang Zhigang.Meteorological disaster climate atlas of Tibet Autonomous Region[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2011:1-3.[杨志刚.西藏自治区气象灾害气候图集[M].北京:气象出版社,2011:1-3.]
[25] Yang Sen,Zhang Mingjun,Wang Shengjie,et al.Areal precipitation features revealed by high-resolution gridded dataset in the Tibetan Plateau during 2008-2013[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2017,39(5):1113-1121.[杨森,张明军,王圣杰,等.基于高分辨率格点数据的2008-2013年青藏高原面雨量特征[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(5):1113-1121.]
[26] Zhu Qiuan,Zhang Wanchang,Yu Junhui.The spatial interpolations in GIS[J].Journal of Jiangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2004,28(2):183-188.[朱求安,张万昌,余钧辉.基于GIS的空间插值方法研究[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2004,28(2):183-188.]
[27] Hu Linjuan,Peng Dingzhi,Zhang Mingyue,et al.Spatial interpolation of meteorological variables in Yarlung Zangbo River basin[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2012,48(5):449-452.[胡林涓,彭定志,张明月,等.雅鲁藏布江流域气象要素空间插值方法的比较与改进[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(5):449-452.]
[28] Yang Chunyan,Shen Weishou,Lin Naifeng.Climate change and its regional differences over the Tibet Plateau[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(2):290-298.[杨春艳,沈渭寿,林乃峰.西藏高原气候变化及其差异性[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(2):290-298.]
[29] Li Xiaoying,Yao Zhengyi,Xiao Jianhua,et al.Analysis of the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 through 2010[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(5):1233-1240.[李晓英,姚正毅,肖建华,等.1961-2010年青藏高原降水时空变化特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(5):1233-1240.]
[2] Xin Jiwu,Xu Xiangchun.The main meteorological disasters in China and the counter measures[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2007,22(3):85-89.[辛吉武,许向春.我国的主要气象灾害及防御对策[J].灾害学,2007,22(3):85-89.]
[3] China Meteorological Administration.Meteorological data center.Data set of rainstorm and flood disaster in China[DS/OL].[2017-04-13].http://data.cma.cn/data/cdcdetail/dataCode/DISA_FLO_DIS_CHN.html.[中国气象局气象数据中心.中国暴雨洪涝灾害数据集[DS/OL].[2017-04-13].http://data.cma.cn/data/cdcdetail/dataCode/DISA_FLO_DIS_CHN.html.]
[4] China National Commission for Disaster Reduction.National basic situation of natural disasters in 2017[EB/OL].[2018-02-01].http://www.jianzai.gov.cn//DRpublish/ywcp/0000000000027782.html.[国家减灾委员会.2017年全国自然灾害基本情况[EB/OL].[2018-02-01].http://www.jianzai.gov.cn//DRpublish/ywcp/0000000000027782.html.]
[5] Wang Liangjian,Peng Buzhuo.Application of fractal method to prediction of flood disaster:a case study on Wuzhou City,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,1998,18(3):242-248.[王良健,彭补拙.分形方法在洪涝灾害预测中的应用:以广西梧州为例[J].地理科学,1998,18(3):242-248.]
[6] Dong Jiarui,Wang Angsheng.The couple model for forecasting and assessing drought and waterlogging disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1997(2):70-77.[董加瑞,王昂生.干旱、 洪涝灾害预测及损失评估耦合模式[J].自然灾害学报,1997(2):70-77.]
[7] Li Xiang,Wang Xinyuan,Li Yulong,et al.Forecasting flood disasters in the Chaohu Lake basin based on Grey-Markov theory[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2006,26(4):43-46.[李祥,王心源,李玉龙,等.基于灰色-马尔科夫预测模型的巢湖流域洪涝灾害预测研究[J].水文,2006,26(4):43-46.]
[8] Kong Chunfang,Xu Kai,Wu Chonglong.Time series characteristics and forecast analysis of flood disaster in Hubei Province in recent 30 years:fractal and chaos theories based exploration[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2009,18(6):182-188.[孔春芳,徐凯,吴冲龙.近30年来湖北洪涝灾害时序特征及预测分析:基于分形与混沌理论的研究[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):182-188.]
[9] Xiong Junnan,Liu Zhiqi,Fan Chunkun,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and changing trend of meteorologic disaster in Tibet Autonomous Region from 1983 through 2013[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2017,39(6):1221-1231.[熊俊楠,刘志奇,范春捆,等.1983-2013年西藏自治区气象灾害时空分布特征与变化趋势[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(6):1221-1231.]
[10] Gao Rong,Wei Zhigang,Zhong Hailing.Relationship between land surface characteristics in the Tibetan Plateau and summer precipitation in China[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2017,39(4):741-747.[高荣,韦志刚,钟海玲.青藏高原陆表特征与中国夏季降水的关系研究[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(4):741-747.]
[11] Qiangba Puncog.A survey of Tibet Autonomous Region[M].Beijing:The Ethnic Publishing House,2009:1-16.[向巴平措.西藏自治区概况[M].北京:民族出版社,2009:1-16.]
[12] Comprehensive Scientific Expedition of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Chinese Academy of Sciences.Geomorphology of Tibet[M].Beijing:Science Press,1983:7-24.[中国科学院青藏高原综合科学考察队.西藏地貌[M].北京:科学出版社,1983:7-24.]
[13] Huang Yimin,Zhang Xinpin.Character analysis in variation of seasonal precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2007(4):537-542.[黄一民,章新平.青藏高原四季降水变化特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007(4):537-542.]
[14] Lan Yongchao,Zeng Qunzhu.Grey prediction method on snowmelt runoff in the Hexi area[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,1997,19(2):154-160.[蓝永超,曾群柱.河西地区融雪径流的灰色预测方法[J].冰川冻土,1997,19(2):154-160.]
[15] Cui Lizhi.Grey forecast technology and its application research[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2010.[崔立志.灰色预测技术及其应用研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2010.]
[16] Deng Julong.Foundation of grey theory[M].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science & Technology Press,2002:18-57.[邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002:18-57.]
[17] Pai Tzuyi,Hanaki Keisuke,Ho Hsinhsien,et al.Using grey system theory to evaluate transportation effects on air quality trends in Japan[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport & Environment,2007,12(3):158-166.
[18] Kayacan E,Ulutas B,Kaynak O.Grey system theory-based models in time series prediction[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(2):1784-1789.
[19] Zhang Shanyu,Cheng Shengyu.Grey prediction of flood disaster [J].Journal of China Hydrology,2000(2):23-25.[张善余,程胜余.洪涝灾害的灰色预测[J].水文,2000(2):23-25.]
[20] Ju Xiaosheng,Yang Xianwei.Research on determination of station indexes and division of regional flood/drought grades in China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,1997,8(1):26-33.[鞠笑生,杨贤为.我国单站旱涝指标确定和区域旱涝级别划分的研究[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(1):26-33.]
[21] He Xiaohong,Pubu Zhuoma.Preliminary study on drought and waterlogging index in Tibet area [J].Tibet’s Science and Technology,2001(1):70-73.[何小红,普布卓玛.西藏地区旱涝指标的初步研究[J].西藏科技,2001(1):70-73.]
[22] Gesang,Su Xueyan,Pubu Zhuoma.Verification of precipitation anomaly percentage in drought judgement in Tibet[J].Tibet’s Science and Technology,2009(2):60-62.[格桑,苏雪燕,普布卓玛.降水距平百分率在西藏干旱判定中的验证[J].西藏科技,2009(2):60-62.]
[23] Pubu Zhuoma,Zhou Shunwu.Classification and temporal and spatial distribution of drought and flood in Tibet area[J].Plateau Meteorology,2002,21(2):210-216.[普布卓玛,周顺武.西藏地区旱涝等级划分及时空分布特征[J].高原气象,2002,21(2):210-216.]
[24] Yang Zhigang.Meteorological disaster climate atlas of Tibet Autonomous Region[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2011:1-3.[杨志刚.西藏自治区气象灾害气候图集[M].北京:气象出版社,2011:1-3.]
[25] Yang Sen,Zhang Mingjun,Wang Shengjie,et al.Areal precipitation features revealed by high-resolution gridded dataset in the Tibetan Plateau during 2008-2013[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2017,39(5):1113-1121.[杨森,张明军,王圣杰,等.基于高分辨率格点数据的2008-2013年青藏高原面雨量特征[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(5):1113-1121.]
[26] Zhu Qiuan,Zhang Wanchang,Yu Junhui.The spatial interpolations in GIS[J].Journal of Jiangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2004,28(2):183-188.[朱求安,张万昌,余钧辉.基于GIS的空间插值方法研究[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2004,28(2):183-188.]
[27] Hu Linjuan,Peng Dingzhi,Zhang Mingyue,et al.Spatial interpolation of meteorological variables in Yarlung Zangbo River basin[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2012,48(5):449-452.[胡林涓,彭定志,张明月,等.雅鲁藏布江流域气象要素空间插值方法的比较与改进[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(5):449-452.]
[28] Yang Chunyan,Shen Weishou,Lin Naifeng.Climate change and its regional differences over the Tibet Plateau[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(2):290-298.[杨春艳,沈渭寿,林乃峰.西藏高原气候变化及其差异性[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(2):290-298.]
[29] Li Xiaoying,Yao Zhengyi,Xiao Jianhua,et al.Analysis of the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 through 2010[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(5):1233-1240.[李晓英,姚正毅,肖建华,等.1961-2010年青藏高原降水时空变化特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(5):1233-1240.]
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