基于SWAT模型对气候变化与人类活动影响下径流变化的量化分析
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摘要
近年来在气候变化和人类活动共同影响下,海河流域径流出现了较为严重的减少趋势。为厘清气候变化和人类活动对不同类型流域径流变化的影响,分别以海河流域中受人类活动影响较为显著的漳河上游流域和受人类活动不显著的滦河上游流域作为研究对象,基于近60年的实测径流资料,验证了SWAT模型在海河典型流域的适用性;构建了基于SWAT模型的径流变化归因分析模型,分析了两种不同类型流域径流变化特点和两种影响因素的各自贡献率,进而系统分析并对比了不同驱动因素下两流域径流变化的差异特征。结果表明:近60年来两流域的径流均呈现下降的趋势,漳河上游以人类活动为主导因素,其贡献率为65%;滦河上游则以气候变化为主导因素,其贡献率为89%。相较于滦河上游流域,受人类活动影响显著的漳河上游流域流量值分布更为离散、下降更为明显,且对平水年和枯水年的影响更为显著。
In recent years,under the combined influence of climate change and human activities,the runoff in the Haihe River Basin showed a serious decreasing trend.In order to clarify the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in different types of watersheds,Two typical catchments was selected in this study:one was the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River,which was significantly affected by human activities in the Haihe River Basin;the other was the upper reaches of the Luanhe River,which was not significantly affected by human activities.Based on the observed runoff data of nearly 60 years,the applicability of the SWAT model in the typical watersheds of Haihe River was verified.The runoff variation attribution was investigated,and the characteristics of runoff variation and the contribution rate of two influencing factors in two different types of watersheds were analyzed.The differences of runoff variation in the two basins under different driving factors were investigated and compared.The results showed that the runoff in both basins had declined in the past 60 years.The upper reach of the Zhanghe River was dominated by human activities with a contribution rate of 65%.The upper reach of the Luanhe River was dominated by climate change with a contribution rate of 89%.Compared with the upper reaches of the Luanhe River,the runoff in the upper reach of the Zhanghe,which was significantly affected by human activities,was more scattered and its trend was more significant,as well as a more departure in the normal and the dry year.
In recent years,under the combined influence of climate change and human activities,the runoff in the Haihe River Basin showed a serious decreasing trend.In order to clarify the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in different types of watersheds,Two typical catchments was selected in this study:one was the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River,which was significantly affected by human activities in the Haihe River Basin;the other was the upper reaches of the Luanhe River,which was not significantly affected by human activities.Based on the observed runoff data of nearly 60 years,the applicability of the SWAT model in the typical watersheds of Haihe River was verified.The runoff variation attribution was investigated,and the characteristics of runoff variation and the contribution rate of two influencing factors in two different types of watersheds were analyzed.The differences of runoff variation in the two basins under different driving factors were investigated and compared.The results showed that the runoff in both basins had declined in the past 60 years.The upper reach of the Zhanghe River was dominated by human activities with a contribution rate of 65%.The upper reach of the Luanhe River was dominated by climate change with a contribution rate of 89%.Compared with the upper reaches of the Luanhe River,the runoff in the upper reach of the Zhanghe,which was significantly affected by human activities,was more scattered and its trend was more significant,as well as a more departure in the normal and the dry year.
引文
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[17]张利茹,贺永会,唐跃平,等.海河流域径流变化趋势及其归因分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2017(4):59-66.(ZHANG L R,HE Y H,TANG Y P,et al.Analysis of runoff change trend and its attribution in Haihe River basin[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2017(4):59-66.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16198/j.cnki.1009-640x.2017.04.009.
[18]李立新,严登华,秦天玲,等.海河流域1961-2010年干旱化特征及其变化趋势分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(11):61-67.(LI L X,YAN D H,QIN T L,et al.Drought variation in Haihe river basin from1961to 2010[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,26(11):61-67.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2012.11.031.
[19] ZOU J,ZHAN C,XIE Z,et al.Climatic impacts of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project over the Haihe River basin in North China simulated by a regional climate model[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,2017,121(15):365-382.DOI:10.1002/2016JD024997.
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[21]郝振纯,苏振宽.土地利用变化对海河流域典型区域的径流影响[J].水科学进展,2015,26(4):491-499.(HAO Z C,SU Z K.Effects of land use change on runoff in the typical areas in Haihe River basin[J].Advance in Water Science,2015,26(4):491-499.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.04.005.
[22]张爱玲,王韶伟,汪萍,等.基于SWAT模型的资水流域径流模拟[J].水文,2017,37(5):38-42,26.(ZHANG A L,WANG S W,WANG P,et al.Runoff simulation of Zishui Basin Based on SWAT model[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2017,37(5):38-42,26.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2017.05.007.
[23]孟现勇,吉晓楠,刘志辉,等.SWAT模型融雪模块的改进与应用研究[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(3):528-539.(MENG X Y,JI X N,LIU Z H,et al.Research on improvement and application of snowmelt module in SWAT[J].Journal of Natural Resource,2014,29(3):528-539.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.03.016.
[24]赵安周,刘宪锋,朱秀芳,等.基于SWAT模型的渭河流域干旱时空分布[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(9):1156-1166.(ZHAO A Z,LIU X F,ZHU X F,et al.Spatiotemporal patterns of droughts based on SWAT model for the Weihe River Basin[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(9):1156-1166.(in Chinese))DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.09.008.
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[2]张建云,王国庆.气候变化对水文水资源影响研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.(ZHANG J Y,WANG G Q.Studies for climate change impacting on hydrology and water resources[M].Beijing:Science Press,2007(in Chinese))
[3]刘伟,翟媛,杨丽英.七大流域水文特性分析[J].水文,2018,38(5):79-84.(LIU W,ZHAI Y,YANG L Y.Analysis of hydrologic characteristics in the seven major basins[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2018,38(5):79-84.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2018.05.016.
[4]刘二佳,张晓萍,张建军,等.1956—2005年窟野河径流变化及人类活动对径流的影响分析[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(7):1159-1168.(LIU E J,ZHANG X P,ZHANG J J,et al.Variation of annual streamflow and the effect of human activity in the Kuye River during1956to 2005[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(7):1159-1168.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.07.008.
[5] WU J,MIAO C,WANG Y,et al.Contribution analysis of the long-term changes in seasonal runoff on the Loess Plateau,China,using eight Budyko-based methods[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,545.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.12.050.
[6] LOTZ T,OPP C,HE X.Factors of runoff generation in the Dongting Lake basin based on a SWAT model and implications of recent land cover change[J].Quaternary International,2017.DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2017.03.057.
[7] HASAN E,TARHULE A,KIRSTETTER P E,et al.Runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Nile River Basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2018,561.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.04.004
[8]冯夏清.近50年大凌河流域径流变化特征分析[J].水文,2017,37(3):84-90.(FENG X Q.Characteristics of runoff variation in Dalinghe River Basin in recent 50years[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2017,37(3):84-90.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2017.03.015.
[9] VUORENMAA J,AUGUSTAITIS A,BEUDERT B,et al.Long-term changes(1990-2015)in the atmospheric deposition and runoff water chemistry of sulphate,inorganic nitrogen and acidity for forested catchments in Europe in relation to changes in emissions and hydrometeorological conditions[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,625:1129-1145.DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.245.
[10]贾杰,姜丽红.气候变化与人类活动对渭河源区近30年径流量影响研究[J].地下水,2017,39(4):130-133.(JIA J,JIANG L H.Climate change and human activities have studied the effects of nearly 30years of runoff on Wei River Source Region[J].Ground Water,2017,39(4):130-133.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1184.2017.04.049.
[11] COLES A E,MCCONKEY B G,MCDONNELL J J.Climate change impacts on hillslope runoff on the northern Great Plains,1962-2013[J].Journal of Hydrology,2017,550.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.023.
[12]杨永辉,任丹丹,杨艳敏,等.海河流域水资源演变与驱动机制[J].中国生态农业学报,2018,26(10):1443-1453.(YANG Y H,REN D D,YANG Y M,et al.Advances in clarification of the driving forces of watershortage in Haihe River Catchment[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2018,26(10):1443-1453.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180658.
[13]万思成,张建云,王国庆,等.漳河上游径流变化特性分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(6):7-11,18.(WAN SC,ZHANG J Y,WANG G Q,et al.Characteristics of runoff varation in upper Zhanghe River watershed[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2015,26(6):7-11,18.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.06.02.
[14]金君良,王国庆,刘翠善,等.气候变化下海河流域未来水资源演变趋势[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(05):1-6.(JIN J L,WANG G Q,LIU C S,et al.Future evolution trends of water resources in Haihe River Basin under the climate change[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition),2016,37(05):1-6.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-5634.2016.05.001.
[15]刘艳丽,张建云,王国庆,等.环境变化对流域水文水资源的影响评估及不确定性研究进展[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(2):102-110.(LIU Y L,ZHANG J Y,WANG G Q,et al.Review for impacts assessment of environmental change on hydrology and water resources and uncertainty in catchment scale[J].Progressus Inquisitiones DE Mutatione Climatis,2015,11(2):102-110.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.02.004.
[16]卢路,刘家宏,秦大庸,等.海河流域天然径流年际变化规律分析[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(6):11-13,99.(LU L,LIU J H,QIN D Y,et al.Analysis of Variation Characteristics of Annual Runoff Series in Haihe River Basin[J].Water Resources and Power,2011,29(6):11-13,99.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7709.2011.06.004.
[17]张利茹,贺永会,唐跃平,等.海河流域径流变化趋势及其归因分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2017(4):59-66.(ZHANG L R,HE Y H,TANG Y P,et al.Analysis of runoff change trend and its attribution in Haihe River basin[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2017(4):59-66.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16198/j.cnki.1009-640x.2017.04.009.
[18]李立新,严登华,秦天玲,等.海河流域1961-2010年干旱化特征及其变化趋势分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(11):61-67.(LI L X,YAN D H,QIN T L,et al.Drought variation in Haihe river basin from1961to 2010[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,26(11):61-67.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2012.11.031.
[19] ZOU J,ZHAN C,XIE Z,et al.Climatic impacts of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project over the Haihe River basin in North China simulated by a regional climate model[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,2017,121(15):365-382.DOI:10.1002/2016JD024997.
[20]贺瑞敏,张建云,鲍振鑫,等.海河流域河川径流对气候变化的响应机理[J].水科学进展,2015,26(1):1-9.(HE R M,ZHANG J Y,BAO Z X,et al.Response of runoff to climate change in the Haihe River basin[J].Advance in Water Science,2015,26(1):1-9.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.01.001.
[21]郝振纯,苏振宽.土地利用变化对海河流域典型区域的径流影响[J].水科学进展,2015,26(4):491-499.(HAO Z C,SU Z K.Effects of land use change on runoff in the typical areas in Haihe River basin[J].Advance in Water Science,2015,26(4):491-499.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.04.005.
[22]张爱玲,王韶伟,汪萍,等.基于SWAT模型的资水流域径流模拟[J].水文,2017,37(5):38-42,26.(ZHANG A L,WANG S W,WANG P,et al.Runoff simulation of Zishui Basin Based on SWAT model[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2017,37(5):38-42,26.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2017.05.007.
[23]孟现勇,吉晓楠,刘志辉,等.SWAT模型融雪模块的改进与应用研究[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(3):528-539.(MENG X Y,JI X N,LIU Z H,et al.Research on improvement and application of snowmelt module in SWAT[J].Journal of Natural Resource,2014,29(3):528-539.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.03.016.
[24]赵安周,刘宪锋,朱秀芳,等.基于SWAT模型的渭河流域干旱时空分布[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(9):1156-1166.(ZHAO A Z,LIU X F,ZHU X F,et al.Spatiotemporal patterns of droughts based on SWAT model for the Weihe River Basin[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(9):1156-1166.(in Chinese))DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.09.008.
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