“水-能-粮”视角下杭嘉湖区域生态系统服务供需测度及政策研究
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摘要
生态系统保护与城镇化间的冲突已威胁人类福祉。基于"水-能-粮"纽带视角,研究从供需双侧对太湖流域杭嘉湖区域2000、2005及2010年的产水、固碳以及粮食生产服务进行了测度,并利用空间基尼系数模型、供需指数模型及相关系数模型对其空间异质性进行了评价。结果表明:(1)产水总量先减后增,固碳及粮食生产总量小幅递减,水资源及粮食的需求总量小幅递增,固碳需求则急剧增加;(2)西南部山林地带产水及固碳服务供给显著,粮食生产聚集在东部平原,3种服务的需求均集中于高人口密度区域;(3)3种服务的空间分布基本均衡,但供需匹配度偏低,绝大部分区域的产水服务处于赤字状态,城镇区域固碳压力显著;(4)产水服务与固碳服务呈权衡关系,与粮食生产服务呈协同关系,固碳服务与粮食生产服务之间具有权衡关系,3种服务的需求间呈两两协同关系。可见,"水-能-粮"纽带关系在杭嘉湖区域表现为相互支撑、相互影响的共同体。最后,本研究提出适应性管理政策以改善区域生态系统。
Conflicts between ecosystem conservation and urbanization has threatened the human well-being. This study evaluates both supply and demand of water yield, carbon sequestration, and food production in the Hang-Jia-Hu region in 2000, 2005 and 2010 from perspective of "Water-Energy-Food" nexus. Spatial Gini-coefficient model, supply-demand ratio model and correlation model are applied to analysis spatial heterogeneities. Results show:(1) The yielding water decreased first and then rebounded, while the total amount of carbon sequestration and food production decreased slightly. The demand of water and food increased slightly, while the demand of carbon sequestration increased sharply.(2) The supply of water and carbon sequestration is significant within the hilly area located in the southwest. While the food production is clustered in the eastern plain. The demand of all three ecosystem services is inevitably concentrated in the densely populated areas.(3) The spatial distribution of evaluated ecosystem services is basically balanced, but the mismatch between supply and demand is prominent. Most areas suffered shortage of water, and urban area had hard pressure of carbon sequestration.(4) Water supply has a "trade-off" relation with carbon sequestration supply, while a "synergy" relation with food supply. Carbon sequestration supply is positive with food supply. Demand of all the three ecosystem services is positive with each other. WEF nexus is proved to show an interactive and supportive relationship in the region. Several adaptive polices are promoted to improve the regional ecosystem.
Conflicts between ecosystem conservation and urbanization has threatened the human well-being. This study evaluates both supply and demand of water yield, carbon sequestration, and food production in the Hang-Jia-Hu region in 2000, 2005 and 2010 from perspective of "Water-Energy-Food" nexus. Spatial Gini-coefficient model, supply-demand ratio model and correlation model are applied to analysis spatial heterogeneities. Results show:(1) The yielding water decreased first and then rebounded, while the total amount of carbon sequestration and food production decreased slightly. The demand of water and food increased slightly, while the demand of carbon sequestration increased sharply.(2) The supply of water and carbon sequestration is significant within the hilly area located in the southwest. While the food production is clustered in the eastern plain. The demand of all three ecosystem services is inevitably concentrated in the densely populated areas.(3) The spatial distribution of evaluated ecosystem services is basically balanced, but the mismatch between supply and demand is prominent. Most areas suffered shortage of water, and urban area had hard pressure of carbon sequestration.(4) Water supply has a "trade-off" relation with carbon sequestration supply, while a "synergy" relation with food supply. Carbon sequestration supply is positive with food supply. Demand of all the three ecosystem services is positive with each other. WEF nexus is proved to show an interactive and supportive relationship in the region. Several adaptive polices are promoted to improve the regional ecosystem.
引文
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[2] 常远,夏朋,王建平. 水-能源-粮食纽带关系概述及对我国的启示 [J]. 水利发展研究, 2016, 16 (5): 67-70.CHANG Y, XIA P, WANG J P. Overview of the water-energy-food bond and its enlightenment to China [J]. Water Resources Development Research, 2016, 16(5): 67-70.
[3] 贾绍凤, 陈贵锋, 姜文来, 等. 对话贾绍凤研究员:寻求水、能源、粮食安全共赢解决方案——以内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市为例 [J]. 中国水利, 2017(11): 59-62.JIA S F, CHEN G F, JIANG W L, et al. Seek win-win solutions for water, energy and food security:Take Ordos city in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region as an example [J]. China Water Resources, 2017(11): 59-62.
[4] RASUL G. Food, water, and energy security in South Asia: A nexus perspective from the Hindu Kush Himalayan region [J]. Environmental Science & Policy, 2014, 39(5): 35-48.
[5] 傅伯杰, 于丹丹, 吕楠. 中国生物多样性与生态系统服务评估指标体系 [J]. 生态学报, 2017, 37 (2): 341-348 FU B J, YU D D, LV N. An indicator system for biodiversity and ecosystem services evaluation in China [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017, 37(2): 341-348.
[6] 邓鹏, 陈菁, 陈丹, 等. 区域水-能源-粮食耦合协调演化特征研究——以江苏省为例[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2017(6):232-238.DENG P, CHEN J, CHEN D, et al. The evolutionary characteristics analysis of the coupling and coordination among water, energy and food: Take Jiangsu Province as an example [J]. Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering, 2017(6):232-238.
[7] 詹贻琛, 吴岚. 中美均面临水、能源、粮食三者冲突[J]. 中国经济报告, 2014(1):109-111.ZHAN Y C, WU L. Both China and the United States face conflicts over water, energy and food [J]. China Economic Report, 2014(1):109-111.
[8] 李东林, 刘建华, 郝林钢, 等. “一带一路”非洲区水-粮-能安全分析[J]. 水资源保护, 2018, 34(4): 22-28.LI D L, LIU J H, HAO L G, et al. Analysis of water-food-energy safety in Africa area of “Belt and Road” [J]. Water Resources Protection, 2018, 34(4): 22-28.
[9] BASHEER M, WHEELER K G, RIBBE L, et al. Quantifying and evaluating the impacts of cooperation in transboundary river basins on the Water-Energy-Food nexus: The Blue Nile Basin [J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2018, 630:1309.
[10] SIDDIQI A, ANADON L D. The water-energy nexus in Middle East and North Africa[J]. Energy Policy, 2011, 39(8):4529-4540.
[11] 浙江省发展和改革委员会, 浙江省水利厅. 杭嘉湖区域水利综合规划 [R], 2015.Zhejiang provincial development and reform commission, Zhejiang provincial water resources department. Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou regional comprehensive water conservancy planning [R], 2015.
[12] BURKHARD B, FATH B D, J?RGENSEN S E, et al. Use of ecological indicators in models[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2015, 295(295):1-4.
[13] CONSTANZA R, GROOT R D, SUTTON P, et al. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2014, 26(1):152-158.
[14] GROOT R D, BRANDER L, PLOEG S V D, et al. Global estimates of the value of ecosystems and their services in monetary units[J]. Ecosystem Services, 2012, 1(1):50-61.
[15] 江波, Christina P.Wong, 欧阳志云. 湖泊生态服务受益者分析及生态生产函数构建[J]. 生态学报, 2016, 36(8):2422-2430.JIANG B, WONG C P, OUYANG Z Y, Beneficiary analysis and ecological production function to measure lake ecosystem services for decision-making in China [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(8):2422-2430.
[16] 何玲, 贾启建, 李超, 等. 基于生态系统服务价值与粮食安全的生态安全底线核算[J]. 应用生态学报, 2016, 27(1):215-224.HE L, JIA Q J, LI C, et al. Calculation on ecological security baseline based on the ecosystem services value and the food security [J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2016, 27(1):215-224.
[17] 罗海平, 宋焱, 彭津琳. 基于Costanza模型的我国粮食主产区生态服务价值评估研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2017, 26(4):585-590.LUO H P, SONG Y, PENG J L. Evaluation on ESV of major grian-producing areas in China: The emperical research based on Constanza model [J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2017, 26(4):585-590.
[18] 谢余初, 巩杰, 齐姗姗, 等. 甘肃白龙江流域生态系统粮食生产服务价值时空分异[J]. 生态学报, 2017, 37(5):1719-1728.XIE Y C, GONG J, QI S S, et al. Assessment of ecosystem food production and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the Bailong River Watershed, Gansu [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017, 37(5):1719-1728.
[19] KARABULUT A, EGOH B N, LANZANOVA D, et al. Mapping water provisioning services to support the ecosystem-water-food-energy nexus in the Danube river basin[J]. Ecosystem Services, 2016, 17:278-292.
[20] BELL A, MATTHEWS N, ZHANG W. Opportunities for improved promotion of ecosystem services in agriculture under the Water-Energy-Food Nexus[J]. Journal of Environmental Studies & Sciences, 2016, 6(1):1-9.
[21] 水利部太湖流域管理局, 2016年度太湖流域及东南诸河水资源公报 [R], 2017.Taihu basin authority of ministry of water resources. Taihu basin & southeast rivers water resources bulletin (2016) [R]. 2017.
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