我国大气污染治理政策主题变迁量化分析及预测
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摘要
2018年《大气污染防治行动计划》已完成终期考核,对政策主题变迁规律的分析能为下一阶段政策制定提供决策依据。以2005—2018年128篇国家级大气污染治理政策为分析样本,构建文本关键词关联网络,通过凝聚子群识别和主题相似度计算得到不同历史阶段的政策主题变迁路径,进而对政策变迁规律和未来趋势进行分析。研究发现,大气污染治理政策主题变迁特征以演化、融合主题为主,同一主题在相邻阶段出现较少;政策颁布主题由面及点;政策措施由单一向复合转变;技术创新的作用不断加强。"重污染地区和时期的区域间联防联控""能源和重点行业深入改造升级""节能减排技术设备的研发与应用"将是十三五后期乃至更长时间内大气污染治理的重点主题。
Based on the final assessment in 2018 of The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, the paper has made an analysis on the pattern of policy topic changes in view of providing a decision-making basis for policy promulgation in next stage. Using 128 national air pollution control policies in 2005-2018 as samples, the text keywords correlation network is constructed, the change path of policy topics in different historical stages obtained by subgroup recognition and topic similarity calculation, and the pattern of policy topic changes and future trends analyzed. It is found that the patterns of topic evolution and integration appear in the adjacent stage of topic change paths, and no same topic is found; policy topics are changed from general to specific; the measures from single to compound; and the role of technological innovation is constantly strengthened. The key topics of air pollution control in the late 13 th Five-Year Plan and even longer period will be the "joint control of interregional defense in areas and periods of heavy pollution", "further upgrading of energy and other key industries" and "R&D and application of energy saving and emission reduction technology and equipment".
Based on the final assessment in 2018 of The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, the paper has made an analysis on the pattern of policy topic changes in view of providing a decision-making basis for policy promulgation in next stage. Using 128 national air pollution control policies in 2005-2018 as samples, the text keywords correlation network is constructed, the change path of policy topics in different historical stages obtained by subgroup recognition and topic similarity calculation, and the pattern of policy topic changes and future trends analyzed. It is found that the patterns of topic evolution and integration appear in the adjacent stage of topic change paths, and no same topic is found; policy topics are changed from general to specific; the measures from single to compound; and the role of technological innovation is constantly strengthened. The key topics of air pollution control in the late 13 th Five-Year Plan and even longer period will be the "joint control of interregional defense in areas and periods of heavy pollution", "further upgrading of energy and other key industries" and "R&D and application of energy saving and emission reduction technology and equipment".
引文
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[2] 吴宾,徐萌.中国住房保障政策主题聚焦点的变迁——基于共词和聚类分析视角的分析[J].城市问题,2017(5):89-97.
[3] 冯贵霞.大气污染防治政策变迁与解释框架构建——基于政策网络的视角[J].中国行政管理,2014(9):16-20,80.
[4] 黄萃,赵培强,李江.基于共词分析的中国科技创新政策变迁量化分析[J].中国行政管理,2015(9):115-122.
[5] 柏必成.改革开放以来我国住房政策变迁的动力分析——以多源流理论为视角[J].公共管理学报,2010,7(4):76-85.
[6] 向玉琼,李晓月.我国大气污染防治政策变迁的动力分析——兼评多源流理论及其修正[J].长白学刊,2017(5):65-72.
[7] DELEO R A.Anticipatory policymaking in global venues:policy change,adaptation,and the UNFCCC [J].Futures,2017(92):39-47.
[8] 刘兰剑,宋发苗.国内外新能源汽车技术创新政策梳理与评价[J].科学管理研究,2013,31(1):66-70.
[9] 张永安,邬龙.政策梳理视角下我国大气污染治理特点及政策完善方向探析[J].环境保护,2015,43(5):48-50.
[10] 郭霞,朴光姬.适时介入、市场重塑与协同创新——奥巴马政府的汽车产业政策分析[J].北京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2016,16(3):36-41.
[11] 谭章禄,宋庆正.基于文本挖掘的煤炭工业政策变迁与反思[J].中国煤炭,2017,43(8):33-38.
[12] 徐蕾,李庆,肖相泽.基于扎根理论的大数据政策共词网络研究[J].现代情报,2018,38(6):157-164.
[13] 唐莉.信息计量在科技创新政策研究中的应用现状、局限与前景[J].科学学研究,2017,35(2):183-188.
[14] 唐果媛,张薇.基于共词分析法的学科主题演化研究进展与分析[J].图书情报工作,2015,59(5):128-136.
[15] JAIN A K.Data clustering:50 years beyond K-means[J].Pattern Recognition Letters,2010,31(8):651-666.
[16] 朱东华,万冬,汪雪锋,等.科学基金资助主题的演化路径分析与预测——以科技管理与政策学科为例[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2018(2):51-57.
[17] GUO Y,MA T T,ALAN L,et al.Text mining of information resources to inform forecasting innovation pathways[J].Technology Analysis & Strategic Management,2012,24(8):843-861.
[18] ZHANG Y,ZHANG G,ZHU D,et al.Scientific evolutionary pathways:identifying and visualizing relationships for scientific topics [J].Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology,2017,68(8):1925-1939.
[19] 徐扬,孟文霞,李广建.基于灰色预测模型的情报学热点主题发展预测[J].情报科学,2016,34(7):3-6.
[20] 杨华龙,刘金霞,郑斌.灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的改进及应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(23):39-46.
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