多尺度视角下的青藏高原水资源短缺估算及空间格局
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摘要
青藏高原水资源总量丰富,但由于水资源量与用水量在空间上分布不均衡,部分人口、城镇密集地区水资源短缺严重。本研究在多源数据的基础上,通过空间分析、降尺度处理等,建立了青藏高原省区、市域、县域空间尺度的水资源与用水量数据集。通过比较5、10、20、30年重现期多空间尺度的水资源短缺程度,分析水资源短缺在青藏高原的尺度效应,揭示青藏高原水资源短缺格局与特征,识别面临水资源短缺的人口与面积。结果表明,青藏高原在省区尺度无水资源短缺;在15个市域单元中,有3个市域出现水资源短缺;在115个县域单元中,有29个县域呈现出不同程度的水资源短缺,水资源短缺县域主要集中在青海省的河湟谷地、柴达木盆地与西藏自治区的一江两河流域等人口、城镇密集区域。总体而言,由于较大空间尺度地理单元内部各县域用水强度差异,在县域尺度面临水资源短缺的人口与面积大于市域与省区尺度面临水资源短缺的人口与面积。以县域为基本单元,发现青海省与西藏自治区30年重现期面临水资源短缺的人口占总人口的56.4%,出现水资源短缺的面积占总面积的10.4%。县域之间水资源短缺指数秩相关系数计算结果显示,省区内部各县域同时出现水资源短缺的可能性较大,而省区之间各县域同时出现水资源短缺的可能性相对随机。研究结果为制定青藏高原水资源短缺管理对策、促进区域城镇化与资源环境协调发展提供科学依据。
The total water resource in the Tibetan plateau is abundant. However, some areas within the plateau are faced with severe water scarcity due to the spatial mismatch between available water resources and demands of population and industries. In this study, multiple sources of data were used to evaluate water supply and demand relationships in Qinghai and Tibet. Water scarcity degrees were assessed at the county, prefecture, and province levels in the Tibetan Plateau for 5 year, 10 year, 20 year and 30 year return periods. The effect of spatial scales on water scarcity assessment was analyzed by comparing water scarcity levels based on analyses on different spatial scales. The spatial pattern of water scarcity in the Tibetan Plateau was characterized, and the population and areas that suffered from water scarcity were identified. At the provincial level, no water scarcity occurred in the Tibetan plateau. Three out of 15 prefectures in the Tibetan Plateau were faced with water scarcity.Twenty nine out of 115 counties had water scarcity problems. Water scarce counties were mostly located in relatively highly populated and urbanized areas including River Huang Valley, Qaidam Basin and the basins of Yarlung Zangbo River, Lhasa River and Nianchu River. Overall, the population and areas faced with water scarcity at the county level were larger than at the prefecture and provincial levels. This can be explained by the spatial difference of water uses between counties. At the county level, 56.4% population and 10.4% areas were faced with water scarcity based on 30 years return period. The rank correlation coefficients of water scarcity degrees in different years in water-scarce counties indicate that counties in the same province are likely to experience water scarcity in same periods, while the chance of counties in different provinces experiencing water scarcity in the same year is rather random. Our findings provide useful information for sustainable water resource exploitation toward coordinated urbanization and resources and environmental management in the Tibet Plateau.
The total water resource in the Tibetan plateau is abundant. However, some areas within the plateau are faced with severe water scarcity due to the spatial mismatch between available water resources and demands of population and industries. In this study, multiple sources of data were used to evaluate water supply and demand relationships in Qinghai and Tibet. Water scarcity degrees were assessed at the county, prefecture, and province levels in the Tibetan Plateau for 5 year, 10 year, 20 year and 30 year return periods. The effect of spatial scales on water scarcity assessment was analyzed by comparing water scarcity levels based on analyses on different spatial scales. The spatial pattern of water scarcity in the Tibetan Plateau was characterized, and the population and areas that suffered from water scarcity were identified. At the provincial level, no water scarcity occurred in the Tibetan plateau. Three out of 15 prefectures in the Tibetan Plateau were faced with water scarcity.Twenty nine out of 115 counties had water scarcity problems. Water scarce counties were mostly located in relatively highly populated and urbanized areas including River Huang Valley, Qaidam Basin and the basins of Yarlung Zangbo River, Lhasa River and Nianchu River. Overall, the population and areas faced with water scarcity at the county level were larger than at the prefecture and provincial levels. This can be explained by the spatial difference of water uses between counties. At the county level, 56.4% population and 10.4% areas were faced with water scarcity based on 30 years return period. The rank correlation coefficients of water scarcity degrees in different years in water-scarce counties indicate that counties in the same province are likely to experience water scarcity in same periods, while the chance of counties in different provinces experiencing water scarcity in the same year is rather random. Our findings provide useful information for sustainable water resource exploitation toward coordinated urbanization and resources and environmental management in the Tibet Plateau.
引文
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[24]廖强,张士锋,陈俊旭.北京市水资源短缺风险等级评价与预测[J].资源科学,2013,35(1):140-147.[Liao Q,Zhang S F, Chen J X. Risk assessment and prediction of water shortages in Beijing[J]. Resources Science, 2013,35(1):140-147.]
[25]许应石,李长安,张中旺,等.湖北省水资源短缺风险评价及对策[J].长江科学院院报,2012,29(11):5-10.[Xu Y S,Li C A, Zhang Z W, et al. Risk assessment and countermeasures of water shortage in Hubei Province[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2012,29(11):5-10.]
[26] Zhang X, Tang Q, Pan M, et al. A Long-term land surface hydrologic fluxes and states dataset for China[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2014,15:2067-2084.
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[29]王志强,柳长顺,刘小勇,等.关于建立西藏水生态补偿机制的设想[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(1):16-20.[Wang Z Q, Liu C S, Liu X Y, et al. Several thoughts on water eco-compensation mechanism in Tibet[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2015,24(1):16-20.]
[2]杨珂含,姚方方,董迪,等.青藏高原湖泊面积动态监测[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(7):972-982.[Yang K H,Yao F F, Dong D, et al. Spatiotemporal monitoring of lake area dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017,19(7):972-982.]
[3]鲁春霞,谢高地,成升魁,等.青藏高原的水塔功能[J].山地学报,2004,22(4):428-432.[Lu C X, Xie G D, Cheng S K, et al. The Tibetan Plateau as water tower[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2004,22(4):428-432.]
[4]青海省水利厅.青海省水资源公报[R].2015.[Department of Water Resources of Qinghai Province. Qinghai Water Resources Bulletin 2015[R]. 2015.]
[5]西藏自治区水利厅.西藏自治区水资源公报[R]. 2015.[Department of Water Resources of Tibet Autonomous Region. Tibet Water resources Bulletin 2015[R]. 2015.]
[6]中华人民共和国水利部.中国水资源公报[R].1997-2016.[Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China. China Water Resources Bulletin 1997-2016[R]. Beijing:1997-2016.]
[7]刘天仇,其美多吉.青藏高原国际河流区水资源特征及开发利用前景[J].地理学报,1999,54(增刊):11-20.[Liu T C, Qimeiduoji. Characteristics development and utilization prospects of water resources of the international river area in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Acta Geographica Sinca, 1999,54(sup):11-20.]
[8]伍文华.青海省水资源现状评价及对策建议[J].水利规划与设计,2017(9):35-36.[Wu W H. Water resources assessment and policy application in Qinghai Province[J].Water Resources Planning and Design, 2017(9):35-36.]
[9]卓玛措,冯起,李锦秀.青海河湟地区水资源综合开发与区域经济发展研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(2):95-99.[Zhuo M, Feng Q, Li J. Regional economy of Hehuang Areas in Qinghai[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2007,21(2):95-99.]
[10]达娃.西藏地区水资源利用分析[J].长江科学院院报,2010,27(3):74-78.[Da W. Analysis of Water Resources Utilization in Tibet[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2010,27(3):74-78.]
[11] United Nations. Sustainable Development Goals:17Goals to Transform Our World[R]. United Nations. 2015.
[12] Hanasaki N, Fujimori S, Yamamoto T, et al. A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways-Part 2:Water availability and scarcity[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013,17:2393-2413.
[13] Jaeger W K, Plantinga J, Chang H, et al. Toward a formal definition of water scarcity in natural-human systems[J].Water Resources Research, 2013,49(7):4506-4517.
[14] Liu J, Gosling S, Kummu M, et al. Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future[J]. Earth's Future,2017,5:545-559.
[15] Falkenmark M, Lundqvist J, Widstrand C, Macro-scale water scarcity requires micro-scale approaches[J]. Natural Resources Forum, 1989,13:258-267.
[16] Falkenmark M, Meeting water requirements of an expanding world population[J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, 1997,352:929-936.
[17] Schewe J, Heinke J, Gerten D. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change[C]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 2014,111:3245-3250.
[18] Savenije G. Water scarcity indicators:The deception of the numbers[J]. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth B,2000,25(3):199-204.
[19] Sullivan C A, Meigh J R, Giacomello A M. The water poverty index:Development and application at the community scale[J]. Natural Resources Forum, 2003,27:189-199.
[20] Hoekstra A Y, Chapagain A K, Aldaya M M, et al. The Water Footprint Assessment Manual:Setting the Global Standard[R]. 2011, Earthscan, London, U K; Washington, D C.
[21] Liu J, Liu Q, Yang H, Assessing water scarcity by simultaneously considering environmental flow requirements,water quantity, and water quality[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2016,60:434-441.
[22] Zeng Z, Liu J, Savenije G. A simple approach to assess water scarcity integrating water quantity and quality[J].Ecological Indicators, 2013,34:441-449.
[23] Mekonnen M, Hoekstra A. Four billion people facing severe water scarcity[J]. Sciences Advances, 2016,2(2):e1500323.
[24]廖强,张士锋,陈俊旭.北京市水资源短缺风险等级评价与预测[J].资源科学,2013,35(1):140-147.[Liao Q,Zhang S F, Chen J X. Risk assessment and prediction of water shortages in Beijing[J]. Resources Science, 2013,35(1):140-147.]
[25]许应石,李长安,张中旺,等.湖北省水资源短缺风险评价及对策[J].长江科学院院报,2012,29(11):5-10.[Xu Y S,Li C A, Zhang Z W, et al. Risk assessment and countermeasures of water shortage in Hubei Province[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2012,29(11):5-10.]
[26] Zhang X, Tang Q, Pan M, et al. A Long-term land surface hydrologic fluxes and states dataset for China[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2014,15:2067-2084.
[27] Liu J Y, Kuang W H, Zhang Z X, et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics, patterns, and causes of land-use changes in China since the late 1980s[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2014,24:195-210.
[28]国家统计局农村社会经济调查司.中国县域经济统计年鉴(县市卷)2015[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015.[Rural Socio-Economic survey Department of National Bureau of Statistics. China Statistical Yearbook for county economy 2015[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2015]
[29]王志强,柳长顺,刘小勇,等.关于建立西藏水生态补偿机制的设想[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(1):16-20.[Wang Z Q, Liu C S, Liu X Y, et al. Several thoughts on water eco-compensation mechanism in Tibet[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2015,24(1):16-20.]
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