上海市实施清洁空气行动计划的健康收益分析
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摘要
为掌握上海市实施清洁空气行动计划(2013~2017年)的人群健康收益,综合采用空气质量数值模拟、健康风险评估、环境价值评估方法定量评价行动计划实施后居民大气PM_(2.5)暴露水平变化及健康和经济效益.结果表明,PM_(2.5)年均暴露浓度在35μg·m~(-3)及以下的人口比例由基准年的1.62%上升至控制年的34.06%,归因PM_(2.5)暴露死亡风险由基准年的15.2%下降至控制年的11.9%.实现的健康收益总和为118.41亿元(95%CI:50.24~178.19亿元),占2013年上海市国民生产总值0.55%(95%CI:0.23%~0.82%).行动计划的实施对保护人群健康具有积极作用,外环线以内人口密集且PM_(2.5)降幅较高的区域健康收益更加显著.
To understand the public health benefits of the Clean Air Action Plan implemented in Shanghai from 2013-2017,the changes of the PM_(2.5) exposure levels and related health and economic benefits were quantitatively evaluated by using air quality numerical modeling,health risk assessment,and environmental valuation methods.The results show that the proportion of the population exposed to a mean annual PM_(2.5) concentration lower than or equal to 35 μg·m~(-3) has increased from 1.62% in the base year to 34.06% in the control year.The death risk attributable to ambient PM_(2.5) exposure decreased from 15.2% in the base year to11.9% in the control year.The total health benefits are approximately 11.841 billion RMB(95% CI:5.024-17.819 billion RMB),accounting for 0.55%(95% CI:0.23%-0.82%) of Shanghai's GDP in 2013.The implementation of the action plan has a positive effect on the protection of the health of the population.Health benefits in areas with dense populations and high PM_(2.5) declines are more pronounced within the outer ring line of Shanghai City.
To understand the public health benefits of the Clean Air Action Plan implemented in Shanghai from 2013-2017,the changes of the PM_(2.5) exposure levels and related health and economic benefits were quantitatively evaluated by using air quality numerical modeling,health risk assessment,and environmental valuation methods.The results show that the proportion of the population exposed to a mean annual PM_(2.5) concentration lower than or equal to 35 μg·m~(-3) has increased from 1.62% in the base year to 34.06% in the control year.The death risk attributable to ambient PM_(2.5) exposure decreased from 15.2% in the base year to11.9% in the control year.The total health benefits are approximately 11.841 billion RMB(95% CI:5.024-17.819 billion RMB),accounting for 0.55%(95% CI:0.23%-0.82%) of Shanghai's GDP in 2013.The implementation of the action plan has a positive effect on the protection of the health of the population.Health benefits in areas with dense populations and high PM_(2.5) declines are more pronounced within the outer ring line of Shanghai City.
引文
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[3]上海市人民政府.上海市清洁空气行动计划(2013-2017)[EB/OL].http://www.shanghai.gov.cn/shanghai/node2314/node2319/n31973/n31979/u26ai37377.shtml,2013-11-07.
[4]黄德生,张世秋.京津冀地区控制PM2.5污染的健康效益评估[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(1):166-174.Huang D S,Zhang S Q.Health benefit evaluation for PM2.5pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China[J].China Environmental Science,2013,33(1):166-174.
[5]谢元博,陈娟,李巍.雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2.5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估[J].环境科学,2014,35(1):1-8.Xie Y B,Chen J,Li W.An assessment of PM2.5related health risks and impaired values of Beijing residents in a consecutive high-level exposure during heavy haze days[J].Environmental Science,2014,35(1):1-8.
[6]Song Y S,Wang X K,Maher B A,et al.The spatial-temporal characteristics and health impacts of ambient fine particulate matter in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,112:1312-1318.
[7]Song C B,He J J,Wu L,et al.Health burden attributable to ambient PM2.5in China[J].Environmental Pollution,2017,223:575-586.
[8]Chen H,Lin Y,Su Q,et al.Spatial variation of multiple air pollutants and their potential contributions to all-cause,respiratory,and cardiovascular mortality across China in 2015-2016[J].Atmospheric Environment,2017,168:23-35.
[9]Chen L,Shi M S,Gao S,et al.Assessment of population exposure to PM2.5for mortality in China and its public health benefit based on BenMAP[J].Environmental Pollution,2017,221:311-317.
[10]魏国茹,史兴民.西安市PM2.5健康损害价值评估[J].环境科学,2018,39(7):3014-3021.Wei G R,Shi X M.Evaluation the extent of health damage caused by PM2.5particulate in Xi'an City[J].Environmental Science,2018,39(7):3014-3021.
[11]Boldo E,Linares C,Lumbreras J,et al.Health impact assessment of a reduction in ambient PM2.5levels in Spain[J].Environment International,2011,37(2):342-348.
[12]Hou X T,Strickland M J,Liao K J.Contributions of regional air pollutant emissions to ozone and fine particulate matter-related mortalities in eastern U.S.urban areas[J].Environmental Research,2015,137:475-484.
[13]Wang J D,Wang S X,Voorhees A S,et al.Assessment of shortterm PM2.5-related mortality due to different emission sources in the Yangtze River Delta,China[J].Atmospheric Environment,2015,123:440-448.
[14]Voorhees A S,Wang J D,Wang C C,et al.Public health benefits of reducing air pollution in Shanghai:a proof-of-concept methodology with application to BenMAP[J].Science of the Total Environment,2014,485-486:396-405.
[15]Liu J,Han Y Q,Tang X,et al.Estimating adult mortality attributable to PM2.5exposure in China with assimilated PM2.5concentrations based on a ground monitoring network[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,568:1253-1262.
[16]Liu H,Liu S,Xue B R,et al.Ground-level ozone pollution and its health impacts in China[J].Atmospheric Environment,2018,173:223-230.
[17]吕铃钥,李洪远.京津冀地区PM10和PM2.5污染的健康经济学评价[J].南开大学学报(自然科学版),2016,49(1):69-77.LüL Y,Li H Y.Health economic evaluation of PM10and PM2.5pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Nankaiensis,2016,49(1):69-77.
[18]Jiang X J,Hong C P,Zheng Y X,et al.To what extent can China's near-term air pollution control policy protect air quality and human health?A case study of the Pearl River Delta region[J].Environmental Research Letters,2015,10(10):104006.
[19]刘帅,宋国君.城市PM2.5健康损害评估研究[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(4):1468-1476.Liu S,Song G J.Evaluation of PM2.5's adverse human health effect in cities[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(4):1468-1476.
[20]杨毅,朱云,Jang C,等.空气污染与健康效益评估工具BenMAP CE研发[J].环境科学学报,2013,33(9):2395-2401.Yang Y,Zhu Y,Jang C,et al.Research and development of environmental benefits mapping and analysis program:community edition[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2013,33(9):2395-2401.
[21]李莉,安静宇,卢清.清洁空气行动计划实施对长三角地区PM2.5污染改善效果模拟评估[J].环境科学研究,2015,28(11):1653-1661.Li L,An J Y,Lu Q.Modeling assessment of PM2.5concentrations under implementation of Clean Air Action Plan in the Yangtze River Delta region[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2015,28(11):1653-1661.
[22]Burnett R T,PopeⅢC A,Ezzati M,et al.An integrated risk function for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to ambient fine particulate matter exposure[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2014,122(4):397-403.
[23]Butt E W,Turnock S T,Rigby R,et al.Global and regional trends in particulate air pollution and attributable health burden over the past 50 years[J].Environmental Research Letters,2017,12(10):104017.
[24]穆泉,张世秋.中国2001-2013年PM2.5重污染的历史变化与健康影响的经济损失评估[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(4):694-706.Mu Q,Zhang S Q.Assessment of the trend of heavy PM2.5pollution days and economic loss of health effects during 2001-2013[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2015,51(4):694-706.
[25]穆泉,张世秋.2013年1月中国大面积雾霾事件直接社会经济损失评估[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(11):2087-2094.Mu Q,Zhang S Q.An evaluation of the economic loss due to the heavy haze during January 2013 in China[J].China Environmental Science,2013,33(11):2087-2094.
[26]上海市统计局.上海统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2014-2018.
[27]Bank World.Cost of pollution in China:economic estimates of physical damages[M].Washington DC:World Bank,2007.
[28]陈仁杰,陈秉衡,阚海东.我国113个城市大气颗粒物污染的健康经济学评价[J].中国环境科学,2010,30(3):410-415.Chen R J,Chen B H,Kan H D.A health-based economic assessment of particulate air pollution in 113 Chinese cities[J].China Environmental Science,2010,30(3):410-415.
[29]Tian L,Zeng Q,Dong W T,et al.Addressing the source contribution of PM2.5on mortality:an evaluation study of its impacts on excess mortality in China[J].Environmental Research Letters,2017,12(10):104016.
[30]Zhou M G,Wang H D,Zhu J,et al.Cause-specific mortality for240 causes in China during 1990-2013:a systematic subnational analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013[J].The Lancet,2016,387(10015):251-272.
[31]国家卫生和计划生育委员会.2014中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴[M].北京:中国协和医科大学出版社,2014.
[32]Abbey D E,Ostro B E,Petersen F,et al.Chronic respiratory symptoms associated with estimated long-term ambient concentrations of fine particulates less than 2.5 microns in aerodynamic diameter(PM2.5)and other air pollutants[J].Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology,1995,5(2):137-159.
[33]阚海东,陈秉衡,汪宏.上海市城区大气颗粒物污染对居民健康危害的经济学评价[J].中国卫生经济,2004,23(2):8-11.Kan H D,Chen B H,Wang H.Economic assessment of health impact due to particulate air pollution in urban areas of Shanghai[J].Chinese Health Economics,2004,23(2):8-11.
[34]Lee C J,Martin R V,Henze D K,et al.Response of global particulate-matter-related mortality to changes in local precursor emissions[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2015,49(7):4335-4344.
[35]Cao J,Yang C X,Li J X,et al.Association between long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and mortality in China:a cohort study[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2011,186(2-3):1594-1600.
[36]Fang D,Wang Q G,Li H M,et al.Mortality effects assessment of ambient PM2.5pollution in the 74 leading cities of China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,569-570:1545-1552.
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