长江中下游地区2010/2011年秋冬春连旱成因再分析
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摘要
基于长江中下游70个气象站点逐月降水和CRU逐月降水格点数据、NOAA逐月海温数据以及NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析数据,分析长江中下游地区2010/2011年秋冬春连旱的时空特征,进一步探讨此次连旱的可能成因。结果表明:(1)2010/2011年长江中下游区域性秋冬春连旱事件始于2010年10月,止于2011年6月,其中2011年春季(特别是4月)干旱程度最重,大部分地区为重旱和特旱;(2)此次连旱事件受拉尼娜事件影响,赤道西太平洋海温异常偏暖、冬春季印度洋和黑潮区海温异常偏冷,使得Walker环流上升支和局地Hadley环流显著增强、西太平洋副热带高压显著偏弱,长江中下游地区始终处于下沉气流控制下,且水汽输送减少;(3)自2010年秋季,乌拉尔山阻塞高压、贝加尔湖阻塞高压和鄂霍次克海阻塞高压轮番控制中高纬度地区,使得西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压持续增强,冬季风自秋季便开始影响中国东部地区,并一直持续到2011年春季,长江中下游地区受干冷的偏北气流控制,进一步阻碍了来自低纬的暖湿气流向本地输送,不利于降水的形成。
Based on the monthly precipitation at 70 meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYR), monthly precipitation grid data from Climate Research Unit in University of East Anglia of UK, monthly sea surface temperature(SST) from NOAA and monthly reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR, the spatial and temporal characteristics of continuous drought event from the autumn of 2010 to the spring of 2011 in MLRYR were analyzed. And the possible causes of the continuous drought event were further discussed. The results are as follows:(1) The continuous regional drought event in MLRYR began in October 2010, and lasted to the beginning of June 2011. The drought was most serious in spring 2011, especially in April, and the drought degrees in most regions of MLRYR appeared severe drought and extreme drought.(2) The continuous drought event was affected by La Niňa event. The SST was abnormally warm in the equatorial western Pacific and abnormally cold in Indian Ocean and Kuroshio area in winter and spring, which led to significant enhancement of Walker circulation and local Hadley circulation and the obvious weakening of the western Pacific subtropical high. The sinking airflow controlled MLRYR, and the water vapor transport to MLRYR was weak.(3) Ural blocking high, Baikal blocking high and Okhotsk blocking high controlled alternatively over middle and high latitudes since the fall of 2010, which caused the continuous strengthening of the Siberian high and the Aleutian low, and the enhanced winter monsoon affected the eastern part of China until the spring of 2011. The dry and cold northerly airflow controlled MLRYR, which further hindered the warm and humid airflow transportation from low latitudes to the region, and it wasn't conducive to the formation of precipitation.
Based on the monthly precipitation at 70 meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYR), monthly precipitation grid data from Climate Research Unit in University of East Anglia of UK, monthly sea surface temperature(SST) from NOAA and monthly reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR, the spatial and temporal characteristics of continuous drought event from the autumn of 2010 to the spring of 2011 in MLRYR were analyzed. And the possible causes of the continuous drought event were further discussed. The results are as follows:(1) The continuous regional drought event in MLRYR began in October 2010, and lasted to the beginning of June 2011. The drought was most serious in spring 2011, especially in April, and the drought degrees in most regions of MLRYR appeared severe drought and extreme drought.(2) The continuous drought event was affected by La Niňa event. The SST was abnormally warm in the equatorial western Pacific and abnormally cold in Indian Ocean and Kuroshio area in winter and spring, which led to significant enhancement of Walker circulation and local Hadley circulation and the obvious weakening of the western Pacific subtropical high. The sinking airflow controlled MLRYR, and the water vapor transport to MLRYR was weak.(3) Ural blocking high, Baikal blocking high and Okhotsk blocking high controlled alternatively over middle and high latitudes since the fall of 2010, which caused the continuous strengthening of the Siberian high and the Aleutian low, and the enhanced winter monsoon affected the eastern part of China until the spring of 2011. The dry and cold northerly airflow controlled MLRYR, which further hindered the warm and humid airflow transportation from low latitudes to the region, and it wasn't conducive to the formation of precipitation.
引文
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[20] 张蓬勃,姜有山,刘蕾,等.1971-2011年江苏持续干旱过程的对比分析[J].高原气象,2015,34(2):444-454.
[21] 胡姗姗,刘倪,张蓬勃,等.澳大利亚热低压的年际变化对中国南方地区冬季降水的可能影响途径[J].干旱气象,2015,33(3):371-378.
[22] 曾剑,张强,王同美.东亚冬季风与中国南方冬季降水的关系分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(4):975-981.
[23] 简云韬,简茂球,杨崧.前、后冬的东亚冬季风年际变异及其与东亚降水的关系[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(4):519-529.
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[25] 代刊.2010年10月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,2011,37(1):122-128.
[26] 张存杰,李栋梁,王小平.东北亚近100年降水变化及未来10～15年预测研究[J].高原气象,2004,23(6):919-929.
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[28] 李忆平,李耀辉.气象干旱指数在中国的适应性研究进展[J].干旱气象,2017,35(5):709-723.
[29] 赵振国.中国夏季旱涝及环境场[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:75-78.
[30] 张亚妮.2011年4月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,2011,37(7):906-912.
[31] 唐文苑.2011年5月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,2011,37(8):1031-1037.
[32] 吴国雄,王敬方.热带和热带外海表温度异常与低空环流特征比较[J].气象学报,1996,54(4):385-397.
[33] WANG L,CHEN W.How well do existing indices measure the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2010,27(4):855-870.
[34] 金荣花,李艳,王式功.四种客观定量表征阻塞高压方法的对比分析[J].高原气象,2009,28(5):1121-1128.
[2] 王劲松,李耀辉,王润元,等.我国气象干旱研究进展评述[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):497-508.
[3] 王文,许志丽,蔡晓军,等.基于PDSI的长江中下游地区干旱分布特征[J].高原气象,2016,35(3):693-707.
[4] 秦建国,张泉荣,洪国喜,等.太湖地区2011年春季严重干旱成因与预测[J].水资源保护,2012,28(6):29-32.
[5] 陈鲜艳,周兵,钟海玲,等.2011年长江中下游春旱的气候特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(1):139-145.
[6] 段海霞,王素萍,冯建英.2011年全国干旱状况及其影响与成因[J].干旱气象,2012,30(1):136-147.
[7] 李淑娟,余锦华.中国东部夏季分区降水对海温异常响应特征的研究[J].气象科学,2015,35(1):44-51.
[8] 李超,张庆云.春季长江中下游旱涝的环流特征及对前期海温异常的响应[J].气象学报,2013,71(3):452-461.
[9] 张剑明,廖玉芳,吴浩,等.湖南夏秋干旱及环流异常特征[J].干旱气象,2018,36(3):353-364.
[10] 闪丽洁,张利平,张艳军,等.长江中下游流域旱涝急转事件特征分析及其与ENSO的关系[J].地理学报,2018,73(1):25-40.
[11] 封国林,杨涵洧,张世轩,等.2011年春末夏初长江中下游地区旱涝急转成因初探[J].大气科学,2012,36(5):1009-1026.
[12] GUO Y P,TAN Z M.Relationship between El Niňo-Southern Oscillation and the symmetry of the Hadley circulation:Role of the sea surface temperature annual cycle[J].Journal of Climate,2018,31(13):5319-5332.
[13] FENG J,LI J P,JIN F F,et al.The responses of the Hadley circulation to different meridional SST structures in the seasonal cycle[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2017,122(15):7785-7799.
[14] 李建平,任荣彩,齐义泉,等.亚洲区域海—陆—气相互作用对全球和亚洲气候变化的作用研究进展[J].大气科学,2013,37(2):518-538.
[15] ZHANG Z Y,GONG D Y,HU M,et al.Anomalous winter temperature and precipitation events in southern China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2009,19(4):471-488.
[16] 袁嫒,李崇银,杨菘.与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜相联系的中国南方冬季降水的年代际异常特征[J].气象学报,2014,72(2):237-255.
[17] 王朋岭,周兵,韩荣青,等.2011年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响[J].气象,2012,38(4):472-479.
[18] 曹博,张勃,马彬,等.基于SPEI指数的长江中下游流域干旱时空特征分析[J].生态学报,2018,38(17):6258-6267.
[19] 许金萍,王文,蔡晓军,等.长江中下游地区2011年冬春连旱及2013年夏季高温干旱环流特征及其与Rossby波活动的联系对比分析[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(6):992-999.
[20] 张蓬勃,姜有山,刘蕾,等.1971-2011年江苏持续干旱过程的对比分析[J].高原气象,2015,34(2):444-454.
[21] 胡姗姗,刘倪,张蓬勃,等.澳大利亚热低压的年际变化对中国南方地区冬季降水的可能影响途径[J].干旱气象,2015,33(3):371-378.
[22] 曾剑,张强,王同美.东亚冬季风与中国南方冬季降水的关系分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(4):975-981.
[23] 简云韬,简茂球,杨崧.前、后冬的东亚冬季风年际变异及其与东亚降水的关系[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(4):519-529.
[24] JIN D C,GUAN Z Y,TANG W Y.The extreme drought event during winter-spring of 2011 in East China:Combined influences of teleconnection in midhigh latitudes and thermal forcing in maritime continent region[J].Journal of Climate,2013,26(20):8210-8222.
[25] 代刊.2010年10月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,2011,37(1):122-128.
[26] 张存杰,李栋梁,王小平.东北亚近100年降水变化及未来10～15年预测研究[J].高原气象,2004,23(6):919-929.
[27] MCKEE T B,DOESKEN N J,KLEIST J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//American Meteorological Society.Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.Anaheim,California,USA,1993:179-184.
[28] 李忆平,李耀辉.气象干旱指数在中国的适应性研究进展[J].干旱气象,2017,35(5):709-723.
[29] 赵振国.中国夏季旱涝及环境场[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:75-78.
[30] 张亚妮.2011年4月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,2011,37(7):906-912.
[31] 唐文苑.2011年5月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,2011,37(8):1031-1037.
[32] 吴国雄,王敬方.热带和热带外海表温度异常与低空环流特征比较[J].气象学报,1996,54(4):385-397.
[33] WANG L,CHEN W.How well do existing indices measure the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2010,27(4):855-870.
[34] 金荣花,李艳,王式功.四种客观定量表征阻塞高压方法的对比分析[J].高原气象,2009,28(5):1121-1128.
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