基于三维生态足迹扩展模型的浙江省自然资本动态评估
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摘要
自然资本是人类生存的基本条件,也是可持续发展的基础,受到社会各界广泛关注。本文采用三维生态足迹扩展模型对浙江省2000年、2004年、2008年、2012年和2016年的生态足迹广度、深度及生态承载力进行估算,反映自然资本的动态变化。结果表明:2000—2016年,浙江省的人均生态足迹广度呈先增后减的趋势,2012年达到峰值2. 7950hm~2·cap~(-1),浙江省处于严重的生态赤字状态;在区域自然资源供需矛盾日益突出的趋势下,2012—2016年,浙江省的足迹深度由8.2144下降至8.1696,这提供了通过开发节能技术,寻求新型替代能源来减缓生态压力的发展思路;浙江省自然资本透支主要在耕地和草地两种生态生产性土地上,且二者存量的消耗总体上呈持续增大的趋势。本研究结果可以丰富自然资本评价方法,为加快生态文明体制改革、建设美丽中国提供参考。
Natural capital is the basis for human survival and sustainable development,which has received wide attention. In this study,the three-dimensional ecological footprint extension model was used to estimate footprint size,footprint depth,and ecological carrying capacity in 2000,2004,2008,2012 and 2016 in Zhejiang Province,to reflect the temporal dynamics of natural capital. From 2000 to 2016,the per capita ecological footprint of Zhejiang Province increased first and then decreased. In 2012,it reached a peak of 2.7950 hm~2·cap~(-1). Zhejiang Province was in a state of serious ecological deficit. Under the trend of increasing contradiction between supply and demand of natural resources,footprint depth in Zhejiang Province dropped from8.2144 in 2012 to 8. 1696 in 2016,providing a development strategy for mitigating ecological pressure by exploring energy-saving technologies and seeking alternative energy sources. The overdraft of natural capital in Zhejiang Province was mainly on cropland and grassland,and the consumption of whose stocks continued to increase. Our results can enrich the evaluation method of natural capital and provide reference for accelerating ecological civilization system reform and building a Beautiful China.
Natural capital is the basis for human survival and sustainable development,which has received wide attention. In this study,the three-dimensional ecological footprint extension model was used to estimate footprint size,footprint depth,and ecological carrying capacity in 2000,2004,2008,2012 and 2016 in Zhejiang Province,to reflect the temporal dynamics of natural capital. From 2000 to 2016,the per capita ecological footprint of Zhejiang Province increased first and then decreased. In 2012,it reached a peak of 2.7950 hm~2·cap~(-1). Zhejiang Province was in a state of serious ecological deficit. Under the trend of increasing contradiction between supply and demand of natural resources,footprint depth in Zhejiang Province dropped from8.2144 in 2012 to 8. 1696 in 2016,providing a development strategy for mitigating ecological pressure by exploring energy-saving technologies and seeking alternative energy sources. The overdraft of natural capital in Zhejiang Province was mainly on cropland and grassland,and the consumption of whose stocks continued to increase. Our results can enrich the evaluation method of natural capital and provide reference for accelerating ecological civilization system reform and building a Beautiful China.
引文
杜悦悦,彭建,高阳,等.2016.基于三维生态足迹的京津冀城市群自然资本可持续利用分析.地理科学进展,35(10):1186-1196.
方恺.2013.生态足迹深度和广度:构建三维模型的新指标.生态学报,33(1):267-274.
高阳,冯喆,王羊,等.2011.基于能值改进生态足迹模型的全国省区生态经济系统分析.北京大学学报:自然科学版,47(6):1089-1096.
靳相木,柳乾坤.2017.基于三维生态足迹模型扩展的土地承载力指数研究---以温州市为例.生态学报,37(9):2982-2993.
刘淼,胡远满,常禹,等.2007.生态足迹改进方法及其在区域可持续发展研究中的应用.生态学杂志,26(8):1285-1290.
刘某承,李文华,谢高地.2010.基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹产量因子测算.生态学杂志,29(3):592-597.
秦超,李君轶,陈宏飞.2015.基于三维生态足迹的锡林郭勒盟自然资本动态研究.干旱区资源与环境,29(9):51-56.
王建源,陈艳春,李曼华,等.2007.基于能值分析的山东省生态足迹.生态学杂志,26(9):1505-1510.
谢鸿宇,叶慧珊.2008.中国主要农产品全球平均产量的更新计算.广州大学学报:自然科学版,7(1):76-80.
徐中民,程国栋,张志强.2006.生态足迹方法的理论解析.中国人口·资源与环境,16(6):69-78.
徐中民,张志强,程国栋.2000.甘肃省1998年生态足迹计算与分析.地理学报,55(5):607-616.
杨青,逯承鹏,周锋,等.2016.基于能值-生态足迹模型的东北老工业基地生态安全评价---以辽宁省为例.应用生态学报,27(5):1594-1602.
杨屹,加涛.2015.21世纪以来陕西生态足迹和承载力变化.生态学报,35(24):7987-7997.
张志强,徐中民,程国栋.2000.生态足迹的概念及计算模型.生态经济,(10):8-10.
张志强,徐中民,程国栋.2001.生态系统服务与自然资本价值评估.生态学报,21(11):1918-1926.
赵志强,李双成,高阳.2008.基于能值改进的开放系统生态足迹模型及其应用---以深圳市为例.生态学报,28(5):2220-2231.
Fang K,Zhang Q,Yu H,et al.2018.Sustainability of the use of natural capital in a city:Measuring the size and depth of urban ecological and water footprints.Science of the Total Environment,631-632:476-484.
Feng Z,Cui Y,Zhang H,et al.2018.Assessment of human consumption of ecosystem services in China from 2000 to2014 based on an ecosystem service footprint model.Ecological Indicators,94:468-481.
Gao Y,Feng Z,Li Y,et al.2014.Freshwater ecosystem service footprint model:A model to evaluate regional freshwater sustainable development:A case study in Beijing-TianjinHebei,China.Ecological Indicators,39:1-9.
Haberl H,Erb KH,Krausmann F.2001.How to calculate and interpret ecological footprints for long periods of time:The case of Austria 1926-1995.Ecological Economics,38:25-45.
Niccolucci V,Bastianoni S,Tiezzi EBP,et al.2009.How deep is the footprint?A 3D representation.Ecological Modelling,220:2819-2823.
Niccolucci V,Galli A,Reed A,et al.2011.Towards a 3DNational Ecological Footprint Geography.Ecological Modelling,222:2939-2944.
Rees WE.1992.Ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity:What urban economics leaves out.Environment and Urbanization,4:121-130.
Wackernagel M,Onisto L,Bello P,et al.1999.National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept.Ecological Economics,29:375-390.
Wackernagel M,Rees WE.1996.Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth.Gabriola Island:New Society Publishers.
Xun F,Hu Y.2019.Evaluation of ecological sustainability based on a revised three-dimensional ecological footprint model in Shandong Province,China.Science of the Total Environment,649:582-591.
Yang Y,Ling S,Zhang T,et al.2018.Three-dimensional ecological footprint assessment for ecologically sensitive areas:A case study of the Southern Qin Ling Piedmont in Shaanxi,China.Journal of Cleaner Production,194:540-553.
方恺.2013.生态足迹深度和广度:构建三维模型的新指标.生态学报,33(1):267-274.
高阳,冯喆,王羊,等.2011.基于能值改进生态足迹模型的全国省区生态经济系统分析.北京大学学报:自然科学版,47(6):1089-1096.
靳相木,柳乾坤.2017.基于三维生态足迹模型扩展的土地承载力指数研究---以温州市为例.生态学报,37(9):2982-2993.
刘淼,胡远满,常禹,等.2007.生态足迹改进方法及其在区域可持续发展研究中的应用.生态学杂志,26(8):1285-1290.
刘某承,李文华,谢高地.2010.基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹产量因子测算.生态学杂志,29(3):592-597.
秦超,李君轶,陈宏飞.2015.基于三维生态足迹的锡林郭勒盟自然资本动态研究.干旱区资源与环境,29(9):51-56.
王建源,陈艳春,李曼华,等.2007.基于能值分析的山东省生态足迹.生态学杂志,26(9):1505-1510.
谢鸿宇,叶慧珊.2008.中国主要农产品全球平均产量的更新计算.广州大学学报:自然科学版,7(1):76-80.
徐中民,程国栋,张志强.2006.生态足迹方法的理论解析.中国人口·资源与环境,16(6):69-78.
徐中民,张志强,程国栋.2000.甘肃省1998年生态足迹计算与分析.地理学报,55(5):607-616.
杨青,逯承鹏,周锋,等.2016.基于能值-生态足迹模型的东北老工业基地生态安全评价---以辽宁省为例.应用生态学报,27(5):1594-1602.
杨屹,加涛.2015.21世纪以来陕西生态足迹和承载力变化.生态学报,35(24):7987-7997.
张志强,徐中民,程国栋.2000.生态足迹的概念及计算模型.生态经济,(10):8-10.
张志强,徐中民,程国栋.2001.生态系统服务与自然资本价值评估.生态学报,21(11):1918-1926.
赵志强,李双成,高阳.2008.基于能值改进的开放系统生态足迹模型及其应用---以深圳市为例.生态学报,28(5):2220-2231.
Fang K,Zhang Q,Yu H,et al.2018.Sustainability of the use of natural capital in a city:Measuring the size and depth of urban ecological and water footprints.Science of the Total Environment,631-632:476-484.
Feng Z,Cui Y,Zhang H,et al.2018.Assessment of human consumption of ecosystem services in China from 2000 to2014 based on an ecosystem service footprint model.Ecological Indicators,94:468-481.
Gao Y,Feng Z,Li Y,et al.2014.Freshwater ecosystem service footprint model:A model to evaluate regional freshwater sustainable development:A case study in Beijing-TianjinHebei,China.Ecological Indicators,39:1-9.
Haberl H,Erb KH,Krausmann F.2001.How to calculate and interpret ecological footprints for long periods of time:The case of Austria 1926-1995.Ecological Economics,38:25-45.
Niccolucci V,Bastianoni S,Tiezzi EBP,et al.2009.How deep is the footprint?A 3D representation.Ecological Modelling,220:2819-2823.
Niccolucci V,Galli A,Reed A,et al.2011.Towards a 3DNational Ecological Footprint Geography.Ecological Modelling,222:2939-2944.
Rees WE.1992.Ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity:What urban economics leaves out.Environment and Urbanization,4:121-130.
Wackernagel M,Onisto L,Bello P,et al.1999.National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept.Ecological Economics,29:375-390.
Wackernagel M,Rees WE.1996.Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth.Gabriola Island:New Society Publishers.
Xun F,Hu Y.2019.Evaluation of ecological sustainability based on a revised three-dimensional ecological footprint model in Shandong Province,China.Science of the Total Environment,649:582-591.
Yang Y,Ling S,Zhang T,et al.2018.Three-dimensional ecological footprint assessment for ecologically sensitive areas:A case study of the Southern Qin Ling Piedmont in Shaanxi,China.Journal of Cleaner Production,194:540-553.
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