电力生产决策支持系统中评估模型的研究与应用
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摘要
目前,数据挖掘作为一种发现大量数据中潜在信息的数据分析方法和技术,己经成为各界关注的热点。电力企业信息化建设积累了大量历史数据,迫切需要利用数据挖掘技术研发分析决策系统,以解决供电企业运营管理中关键和突出的问题。本文分析了电力企业生产管理和决策支持系统现状,介绍了模型和模型库,对电力企业的重要性和决策支持系统理论进行了系统阐述,在此基础上,研究了电力生产决策支持系统,提出了电力生产决策支持系统的整体框架。重点讨论了决策树分类算法,同时对电力设备的分类、运行和维修的模型进行了研究与探讨,并建立了电力生产分析决策模型。
Data mining, the analytical method and technique of finding potential information in large numbers of data, has become the focus in all fields. In the process of the informational construction of electric power industry, there are a great deal of historical data which cry for decision support system using technology of data mining,and it will be used to resolve the pivotal、extrusive question. This paper analyses current situation of electric power production management and decision support system, introduces model and model base, detailedly introduces the significance of electric power and the theory of decision support system (DSS). On the basis of this, this paper research on electric power production Decision Support System, and have prompted entire framework of electric power production DSS. Primarily discuss the analytic arithmetic of the decision tree, the paper researches on the classifying, running circumstances and repairing type model of the electric power equipment, at the same time we try to set up decision model.
Data mining, the analytical method and technique of finding potential information in large numbers of data, has become the focus in all fields. In the process of the informational construction of electric power industry, there are a great deal of historical data which cry for decision support system using technology of data mining,and it will be used to resolve the pivotal、extrusive question. This paper analyses current situation of electric power production management and decision support system, introduces model and model base, detailedly introduces the significance of electric power and the theory of decision support system (DSS). On the basis of this, this paper research on electric power production Decision Support System, and have prompted entire framework of electric power production DSS. Primarily discuss the analytic arithmetic of the decision tree, the paper researches on the classifying, running circumstances and repairing type model of the electric power equipment, at the same time we try to set up decision model.
引文
[1]赵宏斌,电力生产与设备运行监管系统的设计(硕士学位论文),陕西西安,西安交通大学,2002
[2]高洪深,决策支持系统(DSS)理论·方法·案例,第二版,北京:清华大学出版社,2000
[3]卫民堂,王宏毅,梁磊,决策理论与技术,西安:西安交通大学出版社,2000
[4]陈文伟等,综合决策支持系统,计算机世界,1998,30(6):34～38
[5]Kittemann,J.E.,Some reguirements and decision aspects for the next generation of decision support systems, In: Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Hawall International conference on System Sciences, 1986
[6]Keen, P.G.W., The Next Decade: Decision Support Systems, Decision Support Systems,1987,(3):253～265
[7]施欣,决策的基本理论问题研究,决策与决策支持系统,1999, (7):60-65
[8]陈文伟.决策支持系统及其开发.北京:清华大学出版社,1996
[9]张素文,电力营销决策支持系统中的评估模型的研究与应用(硕士学位论文).河北保定,华北电力大学,2003
[10]夏安帮,决策支持系统引论,上海:同济大学出版社,1991
[11]谢榕,基于数据仓库的决策支持系统框架.系统工程理论与实践.2000(4):27～30
[12]刘耀.论决策支持系统的应用现状与发展前景.计算机与现代化,2000,(2):29～34
[13]余瑞钊,陈奇.智能决策支持系统实现技术.浙江:浙江大学出版社,2001
[14]刘来福,曾文艺,数学模型与数学建模,北京:北京师范大学出版社,1997
[15]Abraham T,Wankel C,Support decision support :information on DSS is located,Decision Support System,1995,(14):299～312
[16]郭朝珍.模型库管理系统的设计与实现.福州大学学报(自然科学版),1998,(6):17～19
[17]Will,H.J.,Model Management Systems,Information Systems and Organization Structure,de Gruyter,Berlin,1975,468～482
[18]Sprague,R.H,Carlson,E.D.,Building Effective Decision Systems,Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs,NJ,1982
[19]Dolk D.R.,Konsynski B.R.Model Management in Organizations.Information of Management,1985,9:35～47
[20]Andrew P.Sage.Decision Support Systems Engineering. John Wiley&Sons, 1991:82
[21]陈永红,信息系统中模型综合管理的方法研究.决策与决策支持系统,1994,4(4):23～33
[22]黄梯云,李一军,周宽久.模型管理系统及其发展.管理科学学报,1998,(1):57～63
[23]G.F.Smith,Defining managerial problems : a framework for perspective theorizing ,Management Science,1989,35(8):963～981
[24]R.N.Woolley and M.pidd,Problem structuring:a literature review,Journal of Operational Research Society,1981,32:197～213
[25]R.Agrawal, T.Imielinski, and A.Swami. Database mining: A performance pers-pective. IEEE Trans on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 5(6), Dec. 1993
[26]朱爱群,客户关系管理与数据挖掘, 北京:中国财政经济出版社,2001(8)
[27]Jiawei Han, Micheline Kamber. Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques. Pages 187～198. Simo Fraser University, 2000
[28]Jiawei Han, Micheline Kamber, Data Mining Concepts and Techniques,北京:机械工业出版社,2001(11)
[29]牛为华,电力营销中数据挖掘算法的研究与应用(硕士学位论文).河北保定,华北电力大学,2003
[30] C.E.Shannon. A Mathematical Theory of Communication. B.S.T.J.vol. 27, July and Oct. 1948
[31]藤田宏一,基础信息论,魏鸿骏,陈尚勤译,北京:国防工业出版社, 1982
[32]白建社,樊波,黄文华,薛钧义,基于决策树的变电站故障诊断知识表示与获取.电力系统及其自动化学报.2004(4):5～9
[33]Wang Xizhao,Chen Bin,Qian Guoliang,et al.On the optimization of fuzzy decision tree[J].Fuzzy Sets and System,2000,112(1):117～125
[34]尚志武,付尽芳,大型工程机械状态检测与智能决策系统初探.电力设备管理论丛,1999(5):173～176
[35]管玉红.发电设备大修实现状态检修的可靠性分析.东北电力技术,2002,(8):19～22
[36]施义,电力设备状态检测的现状及发展趋势.攀枝花科技与信息.2002(4):21～24
[37]江志刚,陈三运,电力设备状态检修决策支持系统.华中电力.2001(4):61～62
[38]王璐,王鹏,电气设备在线检测与状态检修技术.现代电力.2002(10):40～45
[2]高洪深,决策支持系统(DSS)理论·方法·案例,第二版,北京:清华大学出版社,2000
[3]卫民堂,王宏毅,梁磊,决策理论与技术,西安:西安交通大学出版社,2000
[4]陈文伟等,综合决策支持系统,计算机世界,1998,30(6):34～38
[5]Kittemann,J.E.,Some reguirements and decision aspects for the next generation of decision support systems, In: Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Hawall International conference on System Sciences, 1986
[6]Keen, P.G.W., The Next Decade: Decision Support Systems, Decision Support Systems,1987,(3):253～265
[7]施欣,决策的基本理论问题研究,决策与决策支持系统,1999, (7):60-65
[8]陈文伟.决策支持系统及其开发.北京:清华大学出版社,1996
[9]张素文,电力营销决策支持系统中的评估模型的研究与应用(硕士学位论文).河北保定,华北电力大学,2003
[10]夏安帮,决策支持系统引论,上海:同济大学出版社,1991
[11]谢榕,基于数据仓库的决策支持系统框架.系统工程理论与实践.2000(4):27～30
[12]刘耀.论决策支持系统的应用现状与发展前景.计算机与现代化,2000,(2):29～34
[13]余瑞钊,陈奇.智能决策支持系统实现技术.浙江:浙江大学出版社,2001
[14]刘来福,曾文艺,数学模型与数学建模,北京:北京师范大学出版社,1997
[15]Abraham T,Wankel C,Support decision support :information on DSS is located,Decision Support System,1995,(14):299～312
[16]郭朝珍.模型库管理系统的设计与实现.福州大学学报(自然科学版),1998,(6):17～19
[17]Will,H.J.,Model Management Systems,Information Systems and Organization Structure,de Gruyter,Berlin,1975,468～482
[18]Sprague,R.H,Carlson,E.D.,Building Effective Decision Systems,Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs,NJ,1982
[19]Dolk D.R.,Konsynski B.R.Model Management in Organizations.Information of Management,1985,9:35～47
[20]Andrew P.Sage.Decision Support Systems Engineering. John Wiley&Sons, 1991:82
[21]陈永红,信息系统中模型综合管理的方法研究.决策与决策支持系统,1994,4(4):23～33
[22]黄梯云,李一军,周宽久.模型管理系统及其发展.管理科学学报,1998,(1):57～63
[23]G.F.Smith,Defining managerial problems : a framework for perspective theorizing ,Management Science,1989,35(8):963～981
[24]R.N.Woolley and M.pidd,Problem structuring:a literature review,Journal of Operational Research Society,1981,32:197～213
[25]R.Agrawal, T.Imielinski, and A.Swami. Database mining: A performance pers-pective. IEEE Trans on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 5(6), Dec. 1993
[26]朱爱群,客户关系管理与数据挖掘, 北京:中国财政经济出版社,2001(8)
[27]Jiawei Han, Micheline Kamber. Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques. Pages 187～198. Simo Fraser University, 2000
[28]Jiawei Han, Micheline Kamber, Data Mining Concepts and Techniques,北京:机械工业出版社,2001(11)
[29]牛为华,电力营销中数据挖掘算法的研究与应用(硕士学位论文).河北保定,华北电力大学,2003
[30] C.E.Shannon. A Mathematical Theory of Communication. B.S.T.J.vol. 27, July and Oct. 1948
[31]藤田宏一,基础信息论,魏鸿骏,陈尚勤译,北京:国防工业出版社, 1982
[32]白建社,樊波,黄文华,薛钧义,基于决策树的变电站故障诊断知识表示与获取.电力系统及其自动化学报.2004(4):5～9
[33]Wang Xizhao,Chen Bin,Qian Guoliang,et al.On the optimization of fuzzy decision tree[J].Fuzzy Sets and System,2000,112(1):117～125
[34]尚志武,付尽芳,大型工程机械状态检测与智能决策系统初探.电力设备管理论丛,1999(5):173～176
[35]管玉红.发电设备大修实现状态检修的可靠性分析.东北电力技术,2002,(8):19～22
[36]施义,电力设备状态检测的现状及发展趋势.攀枝花科技与信息.2002(4):21～24
[37]江志刚,陈三运,电力设备状态检修决策支持系统.华中电力.2001(4):61～62
[38]王璐,王鹏,电气设备在线检测与状态检修技术.现代电力.2002(10):40～45
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