大型变压器运行寿命预测研究
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摘要
随着经济的迅速发展,人民生活质量的不断提高,用户对电能质量的要求越来越高,对电力系统的可靠性也提出了越来越高的要求。特别是《中华人民共和国电力法》的颁布和实施,以及电力行业服务承诺制的开展,电力系统可靠性在生产和管理工作中的地位日益重要。变压器作为电力系统中变换电压、交换功率的枢纽,随着电力系统电压等级的不断提高,网络的日益复杂,它的作用越来越重要,其安全可靠运行直接影响到电力系统的安全水平。因此,对变压器进行可靠性评估,对提高整个电力系统的可靠性水平有着十分重要的意义。
变压器的寿命曲线与电子产品的寿命曲线不同,并不服从指数分布。本文采用定时截尾的试验方法,对国内某变压器厂生产的某种型号的变压器的实际运行情况进行研究。本文只统计造成变压器必须退出运行的故障,研究这类失效应把变压器看成是不可修复系统,其最主要的指标是失效率。本文提出了数据处理和失效率的统计方法。这些变压器虽然不是同一时刻投入运行的,但经过处理可以认为是同时投入运行的,经分析可以得到变压器的故障率离散点,由故障率可以得到可靠度函数,运用威布尔分布概率纸可以验证变压器的寿命曲线服从威布尔分布。
With the development of economy and the improvement in life quality of the people, the requirement to the electric energy quality of user has been more and more rigorous. Accordingly higher requirement to reliability of electric power system has been put forward.. Especially with the issuance and implementation of the electric power law of P.R.C and the initiation of professed service of power industry, the reliability of electric power system plays a increasingly important part in power production and management. Transformer is the hinge of transforming voltage and exchanging power. With the advancing of the voltage and increasingly complex of the network, the function of the transformer is more and more important in power system. Its operation in safety and reliability directly influence the security of the power system. So it's very significant to evaluate the reliability of transformer to improve the reliability of the power system.The life curve of the transformer is different from life curve of the electronic product and it disobeys the exponential distribution. The thesis studies the actual operation activity of a certain transformer using the method of fixed time censoring. The thesis only counts the failure that leads the transformer to quit operation, regarding the transformer as Non-repairable system whose main index is failure rate. The thesis puts forward the method to process the data and count the failure rate. After primary dealing with the data, we can think that the transformer were put into operation at the same time though actually they were not so. Through analyzing the data, the thesis gets the dispersed points of failure rate and then calculates Reliability Function. It verifies that the life curve of transformer obeys Weibull distribution using Weibull distribution probability paper.
变压器的寿命曲线与电子产品的寿命曲线不同,并不服从指数分布。本文采用定时截尾的试验方法,对国内某变压器厂生产的某种型号的变压器的实际运行情况进行研究。本文只统计造成变压器必须退出运行的故障,研究这类失效应把变压器看成是不可修复系统,其最主要的指标是失效率。本文提出了数据处理和失效率的统计方法。这些变压器虽然不是同一时刻投入运行的,但经过处理可以认为是同时投入运行的,经分析可以得到变压器的故障率离散点,由故障率可以得到可靠度函数,运用威布尔分布概率纸可以验证变压器的寿命曲线服从威布尔分布。
With the development of economy and the improvement in life quality of the people, the requirement to the electric energy quality of user has been more and more rigorous. Accordingly higher requirement to reliability of electric power system has been put forward.. Especially with the issuance and implementation of the electric power law of P.R.C and the initiation of professed service of power industry, the reliability of electric power system plays a increasingly important part in power production and management. Transformer is the hinge of transforming voltage and exchanging power. With the advancing of the voltage and increasingly complex of the network, the function of the transformer is more and more important in power system. Its operation in safety and reliability directly influence the security of the power system. So it's very significant to evaluate the reliability of transformer to improve the reliability of the power system.The life curve of the transformer is different from life curve of the electronic product and it disobeys the exponential distribution. The thesis studies the actual operation activity of a certain transformer using the method of fixed time censoring. The thesis only counts the failure that leads the transformer to quit operation, regarding the transformer as Non-repairable system whose main index is failure rate. The thesis puts forward the method to process the data and count the failure rate. After primary dealing with the data, we can think that the transformer were put into operation at the same time though actually they were not so. Through analyzing the data, the thesis gets the dispersed points of failure rate and then calculates Reliability Function. It verifies that the life curve of transformer obeys Weibull distribution using Weibull distribution probability paper.
引文
[1] 郭永基 可靠性工程原理 清华大学 1992年
[2] 盐见弘 信赖性工学入门九善株式会社 1979年(中译本科学出版社1982年)
[3] 肖德辉 可靠性工程宇航出版社 1985年
[4] 郭永基 电力系统可靠性原理和应用 清华大学1986年
[5] (美)EE 刘易斯 航空工业出版社 1991年
[6] 任震,谌军,黄雯莹,李本河大型电力系统可靠性评估的模型及算法[J].电力系统自动化 1999,23(5):25—28
[7] 董志超 电力变压器的可靠性分析[J].山西建筑2003,29(15):65—69
[8] 陈海燕,李小华,柯国土 广东大亚湾核电站厂用电力系统可靠性分析(Reliability Analysis for Electrical Power System of Guangdong Nuclear Power Plant).原子能科学与技术(Atomic Energy Science and Technology)
[9] Vikogan & Failure Analysis of EHV Transformers-IEEEmAS1987
[10] (美)K. C.卡帕 LR. 兰伯森工程设计中的可靠性机构工业出版社 1984
[11] M. Savage & C. KBrikmains-System Life and Reliability Modeling for Helicopter Transmissions C1NASACR39671982
[12] 曾天翔 可靠性维修性工程手册国防工业出版社 1994年
[13] 吴竞昌主编.中国电力百科全书——电力系统卷.北京:中国电力出版社,1996
[14] 杨莳百,戴景宸,孙启宏 电力系统可靠性分析基础及应用
[15] 章国栋,陆廷孝,屠庆慈,吴真真编著.系统可靠性与维修性分析与设计[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,1990.
[16] 梅启智,廖炯生,孙惠中编著.系统可靠性工程基础[M].北京:科学出版社,1992.
[17] Billinton R, Allan R N. Reliability Evaluation of PowerSystem s. 2nd New York and London: Plenum Press, 1996
[18] 陈凯,陆淑兰,李风玲,可靠性数学及其应用.吉林教育出版社,1989
[19] 魏宗舒 概率论与数理统计教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1983
[20] North American Electric Reliability Council (N ERC). Planning Standard. 1997
[2
[21] 曹晋华等可靠性数学引论科学出版社1986年
[22] 黄祥瑞,可靠性工程.清华大学出版社,1990
[23] Camarda P, Corsi F, Trentadue A. An efficient simple algorithm for fault tree automatic synthesis from the reliability graph [J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability.
[24] Abemety RBThe new Weibull HandbookpqJune1996
[25] 王德成威布尔分布在机械可靠性工程中的应用研究北京科技大学硕士学位论文1990年
[26] Electric Power Research Institute (EPR I). The Maintenance Revolution. 1997
[27] North American Electric Reliability Council (N ERC). Compliance Templates. 1998
[28] 金星,洪延姬,沈怀荣,张峥,可靠性数据计算及应用.国防工业出版社,2002
[29] 戴树森等可靠性试验及统计分析国防工业出版社1983年
[30] AMCPMahtlabiHty Engineering Theory and Practice-Jan 1992
[31] 机电部机械研究院可靠性技术中心威布尔概率纸在可靠性分析中的应用可靠性技术通讯增刊第五辑 1993年1月
[2] 盐见弘 信赖性工学入门九善株式会社 1979年(中译本科学出版社1982年)
[3] 肖德辉 可靠性工程宇航出版社 1985年
[4] 郭永基 电力系统可靠性原理和应用 清华大学1986年
[5] (美)EE 刘易斯 航空工业出版社 1991年
[6] 任震,谌军,黄雯莹,李本河大型电力系统可靠性评估的模型及算法[J].电力系统自动化 1999,23(5):25—28
[7] 董志超 电力变压器的可靠性分析[J].山西建筑2003,29(15):65—69
[8] 陈海燕,李小华,柯国土 广东大亚湾核电站厂用电力系统可靠性分析(Reliability Analysis for Electrical Power System of Guangdong Nuclear Power Plant).原子能科学与技术(Atomic Energy Science and Technology)
[9] Vikogan & Failure Analysis of EHV Transformers-IEEEmAS1987
[10] (美)K. C.卡帕 LR. 兰伯森工程设计中的可靠性机构工业出版社 1984
[11] M. Savage & C. KBrikmains-System Life and Reliability Modeling for Helicopter Transmissions C1NASACR39671982
[12] 曾天翔 可靠性维修性工程手册国防工业出版社 1994年
[13] 吴竞昌主编.中国电力百科全书——电力系统卷.北京:中国电力出版社,1996
[14] 杨莳百,戴景宸,孙启宏 电力系统可靠性分析基础及应用
[15] 章国栋,陆廷孝,屠庆慈,吴真真编著.系统可靠性与维修性分析与设计[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,1990.
[16] 梅启智,廖炯生,孙惠中编著.系统可靠性工程基础[M].北京:科学出版社,1992.
[17] Billinton R, Allan R N. Reliability Evaluation of PowerSystem s. 2nd New York and London: Plenum Press, 1996
[18] 陈凯,陆淑兰,李风玲,可靠性数学及其应用.吉林教育出版社,1989
[19] 魏宗舒 概率论与数理统计教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1983
[20] North American Electric Reliability Council (N ERC). Planning Standard. 1997
[2
[21] 曹晋华等可靠性数学引论科学出版社1986年
[22] 黄祥瑞,可靠性工程.清华大学出版社,1990
[23] Camarda P, Corsi F, Trentadue A. An efficient simple algorithm for fault tree automatic synthesis from the reliability graph [J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability.
[24] Abemety RBThe new Weibull HandbookpqJune1996
[25] 王德成威布尔分布在机械可靠性工程中的应用研究北京科技大学硕士学位论文1990年
[26] Electric Power Research Institute (EPR I). The Maintenance Revolution. 1997
[27] North American Electric Reliability Council (N ERC). Compliance Templates. 1998
[28] 金星,洪延姬,沈怀荣,张峥,可靠性数据计算及应用.国防工业出版社,2002
[29] 戴树森等可靠性试验及统计分析国防工业出版社1983年
[30] AMCPMahtlabiHty Engineering Theory and Practice-Jan 1992
[31] 机电部机械研究院可靠性技术中心威布尔概率纸在可靠性分析中的应用可靠性技术通讯增刊第五辑 1993年1月
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