相对劳动生产率变动对人民币真实汇率影响研究
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摘要
随着中国市场经济发展的深入,汇率制度的完善成为当前不可忽视的重大课题。在一国开放经济体中,人民币汇率政策作为宏观经济调节手段存在,对实现国内产品市场与国外市场的均衡起着重要作用。全球性的经济危机的爆发,各国出于本国利益考虑,均利用各种途径在汇率方面对它国施压,期望获得有利于本国经济发展的汇率条件。而中国作为世界第一出口大国,近期有关汇率方面的争端也是接连不断,然而,人民币不能盲目的升值,而应在合理的范围内与真实汇率水平保持一致。在这样的背景之下,深入研究劳动生产率的相对变化率对人民币真实汇的影响,对实现国内国外两个市场健康,稳定的发展有着重要的理论和现实意义。
中国政府在调整汇率政策的过程中,对于人民币升值问题一直保持高度的关注。在经济逐步开放的同时,人民币也呈现出小步升值的稳定态势。然而,就经济体的发展本身而言,货币作为衡量财富价值的度量手段,不能长期偏离其真实价值水平,否则会对实体经济造成重大影响,而应在符合本国国情的前提下,保持在一个合理的范围内。
本文从比较优势理论出发,借助萨缪尔森关于劳动生产率对真实汇率的影响作用观点,简要的回顾了以往国内外学者对于劳动生产率和汇率的研究,在此基础上重点介绍了哈罗德-巴拉萨的结构化劳动生产率指标的相对变化对真实汇率影响的理论,然而,种种迹象表明,中国经济的发展并不具备运用结构化生产率指标来进行真实汇率研究的现实经济条件,这在大部分已有的文献中得到了体现。而相反,在指标选取上,本文认为运用总量式的指标进行研究更能说明中国经济的现实状况。固模仿其进行总量式劳动生产率指标的相对变化对真实汇率影响的微观推导。在研究方法上,主要是采用实证的分析方法,在建立模型之后,从两个层面来进行检验：第一个层面,利用OECD国家的面板数据对模型进行检验,利用Hausman检验方法确定固定效应模型后,发现总量式的生产率指标变动可以很好的体现OECD真实汇率的变化。第二个层面,再利用已有的模型对中美两国进行相应的检验,发现需要进行一定的调整,这主要是因为中国劳动力市场上的“相对无限供给”所导致的,致使整个理论传导的重要环节工资水平发生变化,难以符合模型建立的初衷,后根据中美两国特殊的经济关系情况,引入货币供给总量和美元外汇储备作为补充变量,利用时间序列数据,重新对中美两国的劳动生产率相对变化引发的人民币真实汇率变动的模型进行检验,发现劳动生产率的相对变化对人民币的汇率变动成主要影响,而人民币的货币供给总量和美元外汇储备的变化也是真实汇率发生变化的重要原因。最后,本文在实证检验的基础上进行经济理论的分析,提出了符合中国实际情况的政策建议。
With China's market economic development thoroughly, that cannot be ignored,improving exchange rate system become the major issue. In open economies country, as the regulatory measures of macroeconomic, exchange-rate policy plays an important role in the equilibrium of domestic product market and foreign market. The outbreaks of global economic crisis, countries thought its interests always come first, and alternate approaches and ways and means for its pressure through the exchange rate, expect to earn a kingdom rate conditions to its economic development. China recently, as one of the world's biggest exporter, the exchange rate of the dispute is continued. But the appreciation of RMB cannot blindly, it should be remain consistent in rational scope with the real exchange rates.
In this context, further study gradient of the labor productivity influence on the real RMB rate and it is of extreme theoretical and practical significance to healthy and stable development domestic and international markets.
In the process of Chinese government adjust policy about the exchange rate in which it always high attention. At the same time of the economic gradually opening, the RMB is also showing step revaluation stability. However, money as to the wealth value measure in the development of economy and it will not long way from their real value, otherwise it would cause major impact on the real economy. It should be maintain a reasonable level with the premise of their national conditions.
Starting from the theory of comparative advantage, this paper briefly reviewed the previous scholars both at home and abroad for the research of labor productivity and exchange by the viewpoint of Samuelson about labor productivity effect to the real exchange rate. On this basis, we mainly introduces "Harrod-Balasss effect", which about relative change of structured labor productivity index influent on real rates. But there lots of evidence indicate that, The development of China's economy have not the foundation of realistic economic conditions that apply structured productivity index to analyse real rates, and it have reflected in most literature.
In the index selection, this paper argues that total type indexes could better explain the realistic situation of China's economic. Then imitate the microcosmic derived of "Harrod-Balasss effect" to total quantity type of labor productivity index's relative change that affect real exchange rate.In the research method, is mainly to adopt empirical analysis method, after the model is built, this test from two levels:First, using panel data of OECD countries to test model and after using method of Hausman determined fixed effects models, we discovered that total quantity type of labor productivity index's relative change can well embodied the change of OECD real rates. Second, by means of the existing model to test situation between China and American, find it necessary to perform some of the adjustment. As a result of the "relative unlimited supply" of China's labor market, the important link of the whole theory conduction-the wage level have changes, and it difficult to accord with model's establishment. So according to the special economic relations of china-American, we introduce the amount of money supply and the dollar reserve as supplementary variable. We re-design the model using time series data and test it, then found that RMB exchange rate fluctuation is main forward influence with relative changes of labor productivity, and the amount of money supply and the dollar reserve is backward.
Then at last, this paper conducted Economic theory analysis on the basis of the empirical test and puts forward the related Policy recommendations.
中国政府在调整汇率政策的过程中,对于人民币升值问题一直保持高度的关注。在经济逐步开放的同时,人民币也呈现出小步升值的稳定态势。然而,就经济体的发展本身而言,货币作为衡量财富价值的度量手段,不能长期偏离其真实价值水平,否则会对实体经济造成重大影响,而应在符合本国国情的前提下,保持在一个合理的范围内。
本文从比较优势理论出发,借助萨缪尔森关于劳动生产率对真实汇率的影响作用观点,简要的回顾了以往国内外学者对于劳动生产率和汇率的研究,在此基础上重点介绍了哈罗德-巴拉萨的结构化劳动生产率指标的相对变化对真实汇率影响的理论,然而,种种迹象表明,中国经济的发展并不具备运用结构化生产率指标来进行真实汇率研究的现实经济条件,这在大部分已有的文献中得到了体现。而相反,在指标选取上,本文认为运用总量式的指标进行研究更能说明中国经济的现实状况。固模仿其进行总量式劳动生产率指标的相对变化对真实汇率影响的微观推导。在研究方法上,主要是采用实证的分析方法,在建立模型之后,从两个层面来进行检验：第一个层面,利用OECD国家的面板数据对模型进行检验,利用Hausman检验方法确定固定效应模型后,发现总量式的生产率指标变动可以很好的体现OECD真实汇率的变化。第二个层面,再利用已有的模型对中美两国进行相应的检验,发现需要进行一定的调整,这主要是因为中国劳动力市场上的“相对无限供给”所导致的,致使整个理论传导的重要环节工资水平发生变化,难以符合模型建立的初衷,后根据中美两国特殊的经济关系情况,引入货币供给总量和美元外汇储备作为补充变量,利用时间序列数据,重新对中美两国的劳动生产率相对变化引发的人民币真实汇率变动的模型进行检验,发现劳动生产率的相对变化对人民币的汇率变动成主要影响,而人民币的货币供给总量和美元外汇储备的变化也是真实汇率发生变化的重要原因。最后,本文在实证检验的基础上进行经济理论的分析,提出了符合中国实际情况的政策建议。
With China's market economic development thoroughly, that cannot be ignored,improving exchange rate system become the major issue. In open economies country, as the regulatory measures of macroeconomic, exchange-rate policy plays an important role in the equilibrium of domestic product market and foreign market. The outbreaks of global economic crisis, countries thought its interests always come first, and alternate approaches and ways and means for its pressure through the exchange rate, expect to earn a kingdom rate conditions to its economic development. China recently, as one of the world's biggest exporter, the exchange rate of the dispute is continued. But the appreciation of RMB cannot blindly, it should be remain consistent in rational scope with the real exchange rates.
In this context, further study gradient of the labor productivity influence on the real RMB rate and it is of extreme theoretical and practical significance to healthy and stable development domestic and international markets.
In the process of Chinese government adjust policy about the exchange rate in which it always high attention. At the same time of the economic gradually opening, the RMB is also showing step revaluation stability. However, money as to the wealth value measure in the development of economy and it will not long way from their real value, otherwise it would cause major impact on the real economy. It should be maintain a reasonable level with the premise of their national conditions.
Starting from the theory of comparative advantage, this paper briefly reviewed the previous scholars both at home and abroad for the research of labor productivity and exchange by the viewpoint of Samuelson about labor productivity effect to the real exchange rate. On this basis, we mainly introduces "Harrod-Balasss effect", which about relative change of structured labor productivity index influent on real rates. But there lots of evidence indicate that, The development of China's economy have not the foundation of realistic economic conditions that apply structured productivity index to analyse real rates, and it have reflected in most literature.
In the index selection, this paper argues that total type indexes could better explain the realistic situation of China's economic. Then imitate the microcosmic derived of "Harrod-Balasss effect" to total quantity type of labor productivity index's relative change that affect real exchange rate.In the research method, is mainly to adopt empirical analysis method, after the model is built, this test from two levels:First, using panel data of OECD countries to test model and after using method of Hausman determined fixed effects models, we discovered that total quantity type of labor productivity index's relative change can well embodied the change of OECD real rates. Second, by means of the existing model to test situation between China and American, find it necessary to perform some of the adjustment. As a result of the "relative unlimited supply" of China's labor market, the important link of the whole theory conduction-the wage level have changes, and it difficult to accord with model's establishment. So according to the special economic relations of china-American, we introduce the amount of money supply and the dollar reserve as supplementary variable. We re-design the model using time series data and test it, then found that RMB exchange rate fluctuation is main forward influence with relative changes of labor productivity, and the amount of money supply and the dollar reserve is backward.
Then at last, this paper conducted Economic theory analysis on the basis of the empirical test and puts forward the related Policy recommendations.
引文
①甘道夫,1994：《国际经济学：国际贸易的纯理论》(中译本)[M],中国经济出版社1999年版。
① Dornbusch, S. Fischer and P.Samuelson,1977:"Comparative Advantage, Trade, Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods" [J]
②梁莉,李嘉图贸易理论的新发展[J],2010,北京大学经济学院《中国经贸导刊》
③唐旭,钱士春.相对劳动生产率变动对人民币实际汇率的影响分析,金融研究.2007(5).
①毕燕君,人民币汇率的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应——引入投资需求分析(2005),天津财经大学。
②该模型根据Asea Patrick K.,W.Max Corden.The balassa-samuelson model:An overview[j],Review of Internationgal Economics,1994.整理而得。
①该补充根据Balazs Egert,Assessing Equilibruim Exchange Rates in CEE Acceding Countries:Can we have DEER with BEER without FEER A Critical Survey of the Literature. BOFIT Discussion Papers,2004(1)
① Paul A Samuelson,1964:"Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems".Review of Economics and Statistics 46 May,145-154
① Paul R.Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld,国际经济学(第六版)下册,第十五章,P410。
①辞海编辑委员会.辞海(经济分册)[M].上海：上海辞书出版社,1980：19.
①卢峰.解读人民币实际汇率之谜(1978—2005)——人民币实际汇率长期走势研究之五[J].北京大学中国经济研究中心《中文讨论稿》,No.C2006012,2006年6月1日.
①周洋.购买力平价理论的修正与人民币汇率的理论的分析(2008),东北师范大学[D].
①易会文.格兰杰因果检验用法探讨[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2006(5)：34-36.
②郭存芝,杜延军,李春吉.计量经济学[M].北京：科学出版社,2008：125.
①张晓姣.土地的出让方式对房地产价格影响分析[D].西安：西安建筑科技大学管理学院,2005.
①陈光汉,张光南.中国劳动力市场的二元结构及工资差异研究[J].中山大学学报.2010(1)
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[39]Asea Patrick K.,W.Max Corden.The balassa-samuelson model:An overview[J].Review of Intemationgal Economics,1994.
[40]Balazs Egert,Assessing Equilibruim Exchange Rates in CEE Acceding Countries:Can we have DEER with BEER without FEER A Critical Survey of the Literature[J].BOFIT Discussion Papers,2004(1)
① Dornbusch, S. Fischer and P.Samuelson,1977:"Comparative Advantage, Trade, Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods" [J]
②梁莉,李嘉图贸易理论的新发展[J],2010,北京大学经济学院《中国经贸导刊》
③唐旭,钱士春.相对劳动生产率变动对人民币实际汇率的影响分析,金融研究.2007(5).
①毕燕君,人民币汇率的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应——引入投资需求分析(2005),天津财经大学。
②该模型根据Asea Patrick K.,W.Max Corden.The balassa-samuelson model:An overview[j],Review of Internationgal Economics,1994.整理而得。
①该补充根据Balazs Egert,Assessing Equilibruim Exchange Rates in CEE Acceding Countries:Can we have DEER with BEER without FEER A Critical Survey of the Literature. BOFIT Discussion Papers,2004(1)
① Paul A Samuelson,1964:"Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems".Review of Economics and Statistics 46 May,145-154
① Paul R.Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld,国际经济学(第六版)下册,第十五章,P410。
①辞海编辑委员会.辞海(经济分册)[M].上海：上海辞书出版社,1980：19.
①卢峰.解读人民币实际汇率之谜(1978—2005)——人民币实际汇率长期走势研究之五[J].北京大学中国经济研究中心《中文讨论稿》,No.C2006012,2006年6月1日.
①周洋.购买力平价理论的修正与人民币汇率的理论的分析(2008),东北师范大学[D].
①易会文.格兰杰因果检验用法探讨[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2006(5)：34-36.
②郭存芝,杜延军,李春吉.计量经济学[M].北京：科学出版社,2008：125.
①张晓姣.土地的出让方式对房地产价格影响分析[D].西安：西安建筑科技大学管理学院,2005.
①陈光汉,张光南.中国劳动力市场的二元结构及工资差异研究[J].中山大学学报.2010(1)
[1]王维：相对劳动生产力对人民币实际汇率的影响[J].国际金融研究2003(8)
[2]葛开明：人民币汇率与劳动生产力相对成本优势在在思考[J].国际金融2005.
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