油气供给模型方法研究与软件实现
摘要
油气储产量预测是依据一定原则、标准和数学模型为基础,对一国或一个区块的油气资源变化趋势进行科学预测、评估的一种方法。其目的是摸清油气资源潜力,为国家制定能源战略、经济社会发展规划提供依据。在常规油气储产量预测中,我国通常采用的是以翁氏模型为代表的“生命旋回”型预测模型,直到现在这种模型在宏观储产量预测中仍然占据着主导地位。
随着世界能源形势的不断复杂化和世界各国对预测方法的不断探索和改进,以国家为单位的能源供给模型逐渐出现在各个发达国家,他们都各自建立了适合自己的国家级大能源系统。这些系统结合经济因素,将现实生产活动中影响储产量变化的各种因素引入,从能源的供给能力角度来考虑预测问题。
针对上述情况,本文在进行大量调研工作的基础上,采用多元回归分析、矩阵计算、自回归计量经济模型、计算机软件设计、石油工程相关概念的理论和方法,参考美国能源信息署(EIA)提供的官方文档,建立了美国能源模型NEMS (National Energy Module System)下预测油气供给能力的模型油气供给模型OGSM (Oil And Gas Supply Module)的基本认识,并研究了其中具有代表性的一个子模型——陆上48州油气供给子模块的方法和原理,以期为国内相关学者对油气田储产量预测带来新的思路。
在研究过程中,针对“如何在预测中引入各种影响因素”问题,本文通过大量调研.工作,总结出当前国内外油气储产量预测模型分为“生命旋回”型、“储采比”控制型和基于大能源系统的预测模型等,并对以上几种预测模型在功能上进行分析对比,发现基于大能源系统的OGSM预测模型不仅能较好地引入影响因素并且预测精度也较高。下一步则通过分析总结OGSM的功能、层次结构和它在NEMS中所处位置,对OGSM中各个子模块的作用和侧重点进行筛选比较,从中选择出一个具有代表意义的子模块在原理、结构和求解方法上进行重点分析。在对模型求解方法分析时,针对模型回归分析方法中相关经济数据具有自相关性问题,本文采用非经典假定的计量经济模型中的广义差分法消除自相关,解决传统OLS法(最小二乘法)估计失效问题。最后设计并开发相应软件工具,并利用EIA获取的相关数据作为计算实例验证算法的正确性,计算结果表明本文所采用的计算方法是可行的。
The prediction of oil and gas reserves and production is a scientific method to predict and evaluate a district's oil and gas resources based on some certain principles, standards andmath models. The method's aim is to find out the oil and gas resource potential, development of energy strategy for national economic and social development planning. In Conventional oil and gas reserves and production forecasting,We usually use Weng's model to represent "life cycle"-type prediction model.and now,this phenomenon still dominated in Macro predition.
With the more and more complex situation of the world energy,Countries in the world explore and improve the method of prediction,so,Energy supply model are emerging in some developed countries,they are modeling large national energy system.From the perspective of energy supply capacity to consider the prediction problem of energy those energy system combination of economic factors, bring in affecting real production reserves and production changes of various factors.
In response to these circumstances,This article based on a lot of research work, reference EIA's documentation,use multiple regression analysis,Matrix calculation,econometrics computer software design and petroleum engineering's theory to establish basic concept to OGSM and research a sub-model--lower's principle,then developed a soft to domestic oil and gas field related scholars on reserves and production forecasts and new ideas.
In the study, for "how to consider the impact of various factors in predition" problem, this paper based on a lot of research and summarize, Analysis the current domestic and international oil and gas supply model is divided into "life cycle" type, "reserve-production ratio" control type, and based on large energy system forecasting model. Several prediction models of the above functions for comparison and found that large energy systems OGSM based forecasting model can not only better the introduction of factors but also accreate in prediction is relatively high. The next step is the analysis summary OGSM function in the NEMS in the hierarchical structure and location of OGSM the role of the various sub-module will focus on screening and comparison, choose a representative of significance with a sub-module in principle, structure and Solution focus on analysis. In the solution of the analysis model for model regression analysis methods related autocorrelation problems, this paper uses econometric classical assumptions used in the model difference method to eliminate autocorrelation solutions to Chuantong OLS method of the estimated failure problems. At last, design and development appropriate software,and then using EIA data obtained as given to verify the correctness of the algorithm, the results show that the algorithm used is feasible.
随着世界能源形势的不断复杂化和世界各国对预测方法的不断探索和改进,以国家为单位的能源供给模型逐渐出现在各个发达国家,他们都各自建立了适合自己的国家级大能源系统。这些系统结合经济因素,将现实生产活动中影响储产量变化的各种因素引入,从能源的供给能力角度来考虑预测问题。
针对上述情况,本文在进行大量调研工作的基础上,采用多元回归分析、矩阵计算、自回归计量经济模型、计算机软件设计、石油工程相关概念的理论和方法,参考美国能源信息署(EIA)提供的官方文档,建立了美国能源模型NEMS (National Energy Module System)下预测油气供给能力的模型油气供给模型OGSM (Oil And Gas Supply Module)的基本认识,并研究了其中具有代表性的一个子模型——陆上48州油气供给子模块的方法和原理,以期为国内相关学者对油气田储产量预测带来新的思路。
在研究过程中,针对“如何在预测中引入各种影响因素”问题,本文通过大量调研.工作,总结出当前国内外油气储产量预测模型分为“生命旋回”型、“储采比”控制型和基于大能源系统的预测模型等,并对以上几种预测模型在功能上进行分析对比,发现基于大能源系统的OGSM预测模型不仅能较好地引入影响因素并且预测精度也较高。下一步则通过分析总结OGSM的功能、层次结构和它在NEMS中所处位置,对OGSM中各个子模块的作用和侧重点进行筛选比较,从中选择出一个具有代表意义的子模块在原理、结构和求解方法上进行重点分析。在对模型求解方法分析时,针对模型回归分析方法中相关经济数据具有自相关性问题,本文采用非经典假定的计量经济模型中的广义差分法消除自相关,解决传统OLS法(最小二乘法)估计失效问题。最后设计并开发相应软件工具,并利用EIA获取的相关数据作为计算实例验证算法的正确性,计算结果表明本文所采用的计算方法是可行的。
The prediction of oil and gas reserves and production is a scientific method to predict and evaluate a district's oil and gas resources based on some certain principles, standards andmath models. The method's aim is to find out the oil and gas resource potential, development of energy strategy for national economic and social development planning. In Conventional oil and gas reserves and production forecasting,We usually use Weng's model to represent "life cycle"-type prediction model.and now,this phenomenon still dominated in Macro predition.
With the more and more complex situation of the world energy,Countries in the world explore and improve the method of prediction,so,Energy supply model are emerging in some developed countries,they are modeling large national energy system.From the perspective of energy supply capacity to consider the prediction problem of energy those energy system combination of economic factors, bring in affecting real production reserves and production changes of various factors.
In response to these circumstances,This article based on a lot of research work, reference EIA's documentation,use multiple regression analysis,Matrix calculation,econometrics computer software design and petroleum engineering's theory to establish basic concept to OGSM and research a sub-model--lower's principle,then developed a soft to domestic oil and gas field related scholars on reserves and production forecasts and new ideas.
In the study, for "how to consider the impact of various factors in predition" problem, this paper based on a lot of research and summarize, Analysis the current domestic and international oil and gas supply model is divided into "life cycle" type, "reserve-production ratio" control type, and based on large energy system forecasting model. Several prediction models of the above functions for comparison and found that large energy systems OGSM based forecasting model can not only better the introduction of factors but also accreate in prediction is relatively high. The next step is the analysis summary OGSM function in the NEMS in the hierarchical structure and location of OGSM the role of the various sub-module will focus on screening and comparison, choose a representative of significance with a sub-module in principle, structure and Solution focus on analysis. In the solution of the analysis model for model regression analysis methods related autocorrelation problems, this paper uses econometric classical assumptions used in the model difference method to eliminate autocorrelation solutions to Chuantong OLS method of the estimated failure problems. At last, design and development appropriate software,and then using EIA data obtained as given to verify the correctness of the algorithm, the results show that the algorithm used is feasible.
引文
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[4]冯连勇.国际石油经济[M].石油工业出版社.2009,5
[5]魏一鸣,吴刚,刘兰翠,范英.能源-经济-环境复杂系统建模与应用发展[J].管理学报,2005,3(2)：159～162.
[6]唐旭,邓红梅,曲会.基于广义翁氏模型的世界石油供应格局预测分析[J].石油学报.2007,18(5)：52～54
[7]张厚和,陈蓉.油气储量增长趋势预测方法及其在中国近海油气资源评价中的应用[D].
[8]万吉业.石油天然气“资源量-储量-产量”的控制预测与评价系统[J].石油学报,1994,7(9)：99～107.
[9]李浩武,王彦君；汪斌；对油田规模序列法应用的一些讨论[J].石油天然气学报,1999,5(11)：32～38
[10]赵旭东.用Weng旋回模型对生命总量有限体系的预测[J].科学通报,1993,7(11)：77～86
[11]王新征,孙建芳,邱国清,赵红雨,束青林.Compertz预测模型的建立与应用[J].油气地质与采收率,2004,8(1)：132～142
[12]陈元千,胡建国,张栋杰.Logistic模型的推导及自回归方法[J].新疆石油地质,1996,6(7)：20～23
[13]陈元千,胡建国.预测油气田产量和储量的Weibull模型[J].新疆石油地质,1995,9(3)：4-6
[14]胡建国,潘增耀.对数正态预测模型的完善与简化[J].新疆石油地质,2000,10(9)：113～116
[15]李广志.广义伽马旋回模型在油气田产量和可采储量预测中的应用[J].断块油气田,2002,3(9)：86～88
[16]曲德斌,刘青年,孙东方.灰色模型GM预测我国石油产量初探[J].大庆石油学院学报,1989,6(9)：99～103
[17]胡泽,贾永禄.油田产量预报的多维时间序列神经网络模型[J].西南石油学院学报,2003,6(9)：34～39
[18]刘志斌.注水开发油田动态的微分模拟预测[J].西南石油学院学报1993,6(9)：77～80
[19]王海应,张昌维.利用灰色理论预测油田开发指标[J].新疆石油学院学报,2004,16(3)：27-31.
[20]祝厚勤等.勘探效益法预测油气资源的原理及应用[J].地质科技情报,2006,7(2)：100～103
[21]李为正.MARKAL模型用于电力系统规划中若干问题的研讨[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1986,10(1)：34～40
[22]Marie—Francoise Chabrelie.2010—2015年世界天然气供需展望[J].国际石油经济,2007.6(9)：18～26
[23]Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting Energy Information Administration. Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module[EB]. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ aeo/assumption/pdf/oil_gas.pdf.2005.10
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[27]DOE/EIA. The National Energy Modeling System[EB]. http://www.eia.doe.gov/ oiaf.aeo/assumption/overview.2008.6
[28]Oil and Gas Division Office of Integraed Analysis and Forcasting Energy Information Administration. Nature Gas Transmission and Distribution Module of theNational Energy Modeling System[EB]. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/pdf/nat_gas.pdf. 2007.10
[29]Mayeres I. Van Regemorter D. The Introduction of the External Effects of Air Pollution in AGE models:Towards the Endogenous Determination of Damage Valuation and its Application to GEM-E3[R]. In the Final Report of the GEM-E3 Elite Project of the EU Joule Research Program,1999.
[30]Arvydas Galinis, Marko J. Van Leeuwen. A CGE Model for Lithuania:The Future of Nuclear Energy [J]. Journal of Policy Modeling,2000,22 (6):691-718
[31]于俊年. 《计量经济学》[M].对外经济贸易大学出版社,2005.
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