基于SD的太原市住宅房地产预警研究
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摘要
住宅房地产在房地产市场中占有重要地位,其剧烈波动会造成巨大的社会、经济成本,研究住宅房地产市场的长期发展趋势对政府宏观调控和消费者具有重要意义。本文将系统动力学的反馈回路方法用于住宅房地产,在高文静的太原市房地产预警研究的基础之上进一步实现了对住宅房地产长期预测的功能。在Vensim PLE软件模拟结果下对太原市住宅房地产市场进行实证研究1,主要工作如下:
1.构建了包含了需求、供给、价格、宏观经济环境、土地供给等因素的住宅房地产因果模型图。
在影响太原市住宅房地产市场的需求、供给等因素下建立因果关系模型,具体分析了宏观经济与住宅市场回路,住宅需求回路和住宅供给回路。
2.构建太原市住宅市场系统流图,并用软件模拟运算。
运用太原市住宅市场的统计数据拟合住宅房地产市场供需因素之间的相互关系,建立系统动力学流图。采用该模型进行计算机模拟并检验模型的有效性,并对模拟结果进行分析。
3.对模型结果进行警情分析,得到2009-2010年太原市住宅房地产的趋势判断。
根据模型结果采用住宅价格增长速度与GDP增长速度比、房价收入比、空置率判断太原市住宅房地产景气状态,得出的结论是2009-2010年太原市住宅房价收入比将会偏高,空置率将会偏高和住宅市场价格将出现下滑。
The residential real estate occupies the important status in the real estate market, witch fierce fluctuation can create the huge society and economic cost, it has great significance to study the residential real estate market in the long-term trend for the government Macro-control and the consumers. In this paper, the feedback loop method of system dynamics is used in residential real estate. Based on study of early-warning indicators of real estate in Taiyuan city of Gao wen-jing, this paper well realizes long-term estimate function for residential real estate. This paper establishes an emulation forecast model with System Dynamics theory in city. Simulates the developing condition of Taiyuan city’s commercial tenement market with Vensim PLE, which is a software for system dynamics simulation. The main work is as follows:
1. To build the cause and effect model diagram of real estate included demand, supply, prices, macro economic environment, factors such as land supply etc..
To build the city of the causal relationship between the housing market model on base of demand, supply factors etc. To Analysis specificly the macro-loop economy and housing market, housing demand and housing supply loop circuit.
2. Set up Taiyuan city residential market system flow diagram, and use Vensim PLE software to simulation operation. Set up system dynamics simulation model which through the historical data of housing market in Taiyuan city to fit the relationship of factors with mathematical formula . Simulate by computer on this model and test the validity of the model and the model simulation results carried out qualitative analysis.
3. Carry on early warning analysis to the model result. Hereby get the trend judgment of the Taiyuan city residential real estate in 2009-2010.
Judgment the situation of residence real estate in Taiyuan city according to the adoption house price of the model result growth speed and GDP growth speed ratio, building price income ratio, empty place a rate . Get the conclusion that the income ratio of Taiyuan city residential real estate price and vacancy rate is higher , as well as real estate market price will fall in 2009-2010.
1.构建了包含了需求、供给、价格、宏观经济环境、土地供给等因素的住宅房地产因果模型图。
在影响太原市住宅房地产市场的需求、供给等因素下建立因果关系模型,具体分析了宏观经济与住宅市场回路,住宅需求回路和住宅供给回路。
2.构建太原市住宅市场系统流图,并用软件模拟运算。
运用太原市住宅市场的统计数据拟合住宅房地产市场供需因素之间的相互关系,建立系统动力学流图。采用该模型进行计算机模拟并检验模型的有效性,并对模拟结果进行分析。
3.对模型结果进行警情分析,得到2009-2010年太原市住宅房地产的趋势判断。
根据模型结果采用住宅价格增长速度与GDP增长速度比、房价收入比、空置率判断太原市住宅房地产景气状态,得出的结论是2009-2010年太原市住宅房价收入比将会偏高,空置率将会偏高和住宅市场价格将出现下滑。
The residential real estate occupies the important status in the real estate market, witch fierce fluctuation can create the huge society and economic cost, it has great significance to study the residential real estate market in the long-term trend for the government Macro-control and the consumers. In this paper, the feedback loop method of system dynamics is used in residential real estate. Based on study of early-warning indicators of real estate in Taiyuan city of Gao wen-jing, this paper well realizes long-term estimate function for residential real estate. This paper establishes an emulation forecast model with System Dynamics theory in city. Simulates the developing condition of Taiyuan city’s commercial tenement market with Vensim PLE, which is a software for system dynamics simulation. The main work is as follows:
1. To build the cause and effect model diagram of real estate included demand, supply, prices, macro economic environment, factors such as land supply etc..
To build the city of the causal relationship between the housing market model on base of demand, supply factors etc. To Analysis specificly the macro-loop economy and housing market, housing demand and housing supply loop circuit.
2. Set up Taiyuan city residential market system flow diagram, and use Vensim PLE software to simulation operation. Set up system dynamics simulation model which through the historical data of housing market in Taiyuan city to fit the relationship of factors with mathematical formula . Simulate by computer on this model and test the validity of the model and the model simulation results carried out qualitative analysis.
3. Carry on early warning analysis to the model result. Hereby get the trend judgment of the Taiyuan city residential real estate in 2009-2010.
Judgment the situation of residence real estate in Taiyuan city according to the adoption house price of the model result growth speed and GDP growth speed ratio, building price income ratio, empty place a rate . Get the conclusion that the income ratio of Taiyuan city residential real estate price and vacancy rate is higher , as well as real estate market price will fall in 2009-2010.
引文
[1]中华人民共和国2008年国民经济和社会发展公报.中华人民共和国统计局,http://www.stats.gov.cn. 2009年2月26日
[2] 2009年中国第十一届全国人大二次会议两会政府报告.新华网. http://www.xinhuanet.com/2009lh/gzbg/20090305/.2009年3月5日
[3]韩立达.我国房地产预警系统的基本特征及方法[J] .燕山大学学报,2004(8),P38-40
[4]王锋、苏良生.深圳房地产预警体系研究[J] .建设科技,2003(12),P22-23
[5]李崇明.房地产预警的误区及对策的方法论分析[J] .武汉理工大学学报,2003(16).P34-35
[6]梁运斌.我国房地产业景气指标设置与预警预报系统建设的基本构想[J] .北京房地产,1995(11).P25-30
[7]赵黎明.贾永飞,钱伟荣.房地产预警系统研究[J] .天津大学学报,1999(4).P277-280
[8]丁烈云.房地产周期波动和预警研究[D].同济大学博士论文,2002.6
[9]李斌,丁烈云,叶艳兵.房地产景气预警中DI的改进及与CI的精度比较研究[J],系统工程理论与实践.2003(1).P88-93 [10《]深圳市房地产预警体系》研究课题组.深圳房地产预警系统研究[R],研究报告,2003 P3-5
[11]上海市房地产预警预报指标体系研究课题组.上海市房地产预警预报指标体系研究[R].上海房地,2003(11), P5-7
[12]张所地.房地产预期评估方法与技术[M].中国物资出版社,2002
[13]张所地.不动产静态与动态评估方法[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,2005
[14]李斌.非线性双重时序模型实证研究[D] .山西财经大学硕士论文,2006.12
[15]高文静.太原市房地产预警系统研究[D] .山西财经大学硕士论文,2008.6
[16]袁翠华.房地产市场系统动力学模型及其应用研究[D] .东南大学硕士论文,2005.6
[17]李波.城市房地产发展系统研究[D].天津大学博士论文,2003 .6
[18]王其藩.系统动力学(修订版)[M] .北京:清华大学出版社,1994
[19]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M] .北京:清华大学出版社,1995
[20]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学--反馈动态性复杂分析[M] .高等教育出版社,2002,P22-28
[21]胡珍梅.房地产金融预警系统模型研究[D] .东南大学硕士论文,2005.6
[22]刘利军.北京城市住宅市场的系统动力学模型研究[D] .北京林业大学硕士论文,2006.6
[23]苏懋康.系统动力学原理及应用[M] .上海交通大学出版社,1988
[24]程国平,汪波,岳毅宏.房地产投资系统动力学模型的建立及其长期演化行为研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003(10),P66-80
[25]刘琳.房地产市场互动机理与政策分析[M] .中国经济出版社,2004(5).P 53- 69
[26]李斌.城市商品住宅市场波动及其调控对策研究[D].华中科技大学博士论文,2006.6
[27]山西省太原市2008年度土地利用计划. http://www.chinalands.com. 2008年1月22日
[28]太原市土地出让结果公示(2005-2007).太原市国土资源局官方网站. http://www. tylr. gov. cn.2007年12月10日
[29]贾海.商品房空置率计算方法研究[J] .统计研究,2007(9).P45-50
[30]《太原市城市总体规划》(2007-2020).山西省房产门户网. http://www.housoo.com/info/shengcheng/ ty/ty.htm.2007年2月25日
[31]Ali Kerem Saysel Orhan Yenig. Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project[J].a system dynamics approach. Journal Environmental Management(2002)64:247–260
[32]彼得圣吉.第五项修炼-学习型组织的艺术与实务[M] .上海三联出版社,2003
[33]章嫦华,骆尚表,虞晓芬.房地产泡沫检测方法述评[J] .中国房地产,2007.P86-94
[34]Forrester,Jay W.Industrial Dynamics[M] .US, Cambridge, 1961, MA:MIT Press:20-25
[35]李晋玲,刘人境,贺柯柯.陕西省人口迁移与人口城市化系统动力学分析[J] .西安交通大学学报,2007(5),P90-93
[36]王孟钧,彭彪,陈辉华.基于系统动力学的建筑市场信用系统[J] .系统工程理论方法应用,2006(5),P410-413
[37]胡雨村,沈岐平.香港住宅产业的系统动力学研究[J] .系统工程理论与实践,2001(3).P33- 37
[38]BAE Joonsoo, BAE Hyerim, KANG Sukho etal.Automatic control of workflow process using ECA rules[J] .IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering,2004,16(8):81-87
[39]ADAMS P . What’s going on?[business activity monitoring][J] . Manufacturing Engineer,2002,81(6):282-283
[40] Case B and J.M.Quigley.The dynamics of real Estate prices[J] .The review of Economics and statics, 1991, 73(3):50-58
[41]丹尼斯·米都斯.增长的极限[M] .吉林人民出版社,1997.P23- 30
[42]Ronald W.Kaiser.the long cycle in real estate[J] .Journal of Real Estate Research,1997,4 (2):73-84
[43]Witold Witkiwicz.The Use of the HP-filter in Constructing Real Estate Cycle Indicators[J] .Journal of Real Estate Research,2002:93-101
[44]Karl E . Case Real Estate and the Macro-economy, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity[J] .2000:42-48
[45]刘传哲,高静华.房地产市场风险预警研究方法综述[J] .中国矿业大学学报,2006(3).P64- 69
[2] 2009年中国第十一届全国人大二次会议两会政府报告.新华网. http://www.xinhuanet.com/2009lh/gzbg/20090305/.2009年3月5日
[3]韩立达.我国房地产预警系统的基本特征及方法[J] .燕山大学学报,2004(8),P38-40
[4]王锋、苏良生.深圳房地产预警体系研究[J] .建设科技,2003(12),P22-23
[5]李崇明.房地产预警的误区及对策的方法论分析[J] .武汉理工大学学报,2003(16).P34-35
[6]梁运斌.我国房地产业景气指标设置与预警预报系统建设的基本构想[J] .北京房地产,1995(11).P25-30
[7]赵黎明.贾永飞,钱伟荣.房地产预警系统研究[J] .天津大学学报,1999(4).P277-280
[8]丁烈云.房地产周期波动和预警研究[D].同济大学博士论文,2002.6
[9]李斌,丁烈云,叶艳兵.房地产景气预警中DI的改进及与CI的精度比较研究[J],系统工程理论与实践.2003(1).P88-93 [10《]深圳市房地产预警体系》研究课题组.深圳房地产预警系统研究[R],研究报告,2003 P3-5
[11]上海市房地产预警预报指标体系研究课题组.上海市房地产预警预报指标体系研究[R].上海房地,2003(11), P5-7
[12]张所地.房地产预期评估方法与技术[M].中国物资出版社,2002
[13]张所地.不动产静态与动态评估方法[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,2005
[14]李斌.非线性双重时序模型实证研究[D] .山西财经大学硕士论文,2006.12
[15]高文静.太原市房地产预警系统研究[D] .山西财经大学硕士论文,2008.6
[16]袁翠华.房地产市场系统动力学模型及其应用研究[D] .东南大学硕士论文,2005.6
[17]李波.城市房地产发展系统研究[D].天津大学博士论文,2003 .6
[18]王其藩.系统动力学(修订版)[M] .北京:清华大学出版社,1994
[19]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M] .北京:清华大学出版社,1995
[20]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学--反馈动态性复杂分析[M] .高等教育出版社,2002,P22-28
[21]胡珍梅.房地产金融预警系统模型研究[D] .东南大学硕士论文,2005.6
[22]刘利军.北京城市住宅市场的系统动力学模型研究[D] .北京林业大学硕士论文,2006.6
[23]苏懋康.系统动力学原理及应用[M] .上海交通大学出版社,1988
[24]程国平,汪波,岳毅宏.房地产投资系统动力学模型的建立及其长期演化行为研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003(10),P66-80
[25]刘琳.房地产市场互动机理与政策分析[M] .中国经济出版社,2004(5).P 53- 69
[26]李斌.城市商品住宅市场波动及其调控对策研究[D].华中科技大学博士论文,2006.6
[27]山西省太原市2008年度土地利用计划. http://www.chinalands.com. 2008年1月22日
[28]太原市土地出让结果公示(2005-2007).太原市国土资源局官方网站. http://www. tylr. gov. cn.2007年12月10日
[29]贾海.商品房空置率计算方法研究[J] .统计研究,2007(9).P45-50
[30]《太原市城市总体规划》(2007-2020).山西省房产门户网. http://www.housoo.com/info/shengcheng/ ty/ty.htm.2007年2月25日
[31]Ali Kerem Saysel Orhan Yenig. Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project[J].a system dynamics approach. Journal Environmental Management(2002)64:247–260
[32]彼得圣吉.第五项修炼-学习型组织的艺术与实务[M] .上海三联出版社,2003
[33]章嫦华,骆尚表,虞晓芬.房地产泡沫检测方法述评[J] .中国房地产,2007.P86-94
[34]Forrester,Jay W.Industrial Dynamics[M] .US, Cambridge, 1961, MA:MIT Press:20-25
[35]李晋玲,刘人境,贺柯柯.陕西省人口迁移与人口城市化系统动力学分析[J] .西安交通大学学报,2007(5),P90-93
[36]王孟钧,彭彪,陈辉华.基于系统动力学的建筑市场信用系统[J] .系统工程理论方法应用,2006(5),P410-413
[37]胡雨村,沈岐平.香港住宅产业的系统动力学研究[J] .系统工程理论与实践,2001(3).P33- 37
[38]BAE Joonsoo, BAE Hyerim, KANG Sukho etal.Automatic control of workflow process using ECA rules[J] .IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering,2004,16(8):81-87
[39]ADAMS P . What’s going on?[business activity monitoring][J] . Manufacturing Engineer,2002,81(6):282-283
[40] Case B and J.M.Quigley.The dynamics of real Estate prices[J] .The review of Economics and statics, 1991, 73(3):50-58
[41]丹尼斯·米都斯.增长的极限[M] .吉林人民出版社,1997.P23- 30
[42]Ronald W.Kaiser.the long cycle in real estate[J] .Journal of Real Estate Research,1997,4 (2):73-84
[43]Witold Witkiwicz.The Use of the HP-filter in Constructing Real Estate Cycle Indicators[J] .Journal of Real Estate Research,2002:93-101
[44]Karl E . Case Real Estate and the Macro-economy, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity[J] .2000:42-48
[45]刘传哲,高静华.房地产市场风险预警研究方法综述[J] .中国矿业大学学报,2006(3).P64- 69
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